Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon, his big games have been lousy lately:
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ New Orleans
2. 50,000♦ George Mason
3. 50,000♦ Mavericks
1. New Orleans- We find some real value in this contest, because New Orleans is being seriously underestimated coming off consecutive losses, while Denver has won 4 straight ATS and has apparently won the undeserved love of oddsmakers. I'm calling this game my Massacre of the Month, because I see the Privateers routing this Pioneers squad tonight at home and here's why...
First and foremost, Denver has been absolute garbage on the road this season, going 0-7 SU & 3-3 ATS. But its not just that their winless away, but its their overall poor effort when they travel, averaging just 48 ppg on 40% shooting, while surrendering 63 ppg on a laughable 51% shooting... That disparity is absolutely disgusting.
Second, just how do you expect a sputtering Pioneers offense to keep pace with a Privateers attack that's dropping 80 ppg on 50% shooting (47% from 3-point) over their last 5 games?! New Orleans is led by NBA-bound G Bo McCalebb, who's 21.8 ppg paces their offense, and will have a field day with this Pioneers backcourt. Privateers also have some solid frontcourt players in F Dykes and 6'10 bigbody Ben Elias to match up against Denver's frontcourt, which features their only real threats in Kummer and Tanner. As a side note, the fact that 6'8 C Tanner is their leading assit guy (38) should tell you something about this Denver offense!
Finally, let's look at the trends, as Denver is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 meetings with New Orleans. Not only that, but the Pioneers are also just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 road games. Their last loss on the road was in a non-lined contest against Middle Tennessee State, where they managed only 50 points and shot 38% from the field against a terrible Blue Raiders defense (allowing 73 ppg on 47% shooting on the season). If they couldn't capitalize in that game, they sure as hell ain't gonna get it done against a solid Privateers squad tonight. New Orleans rolls in this match up!
Take New Orleans BIG over Denver as your top-rated play of the day.
2. George Mason- Several glaring mismatches in this contest, but none bigger than senior F Will Thomas against this Delaware frontcourt. Sure, the Blue Hens' Herb Courtney is a good player, but he's been known to disappear at times (5 points at Maryland, 7 points at William & Mary), and will have his hands full with very active Thomas in this one (9.8 rebounds per game).
Next, while both teams rely on a bevy of guards after their one solid post player, its the Patriots who possess the superior talent with guards Vaughan, Campbell, and Smith all averaging in double-figures. The Blue Hens quartet of guards is decent, but looking over their stats, its becomes clear they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn if you asked them to. In fact, Delaware is averaging just 62 ppg on 40% shooting this season, thanks in large part to poor backcourt shooting.
For all the trouble the Blue Hens are having on offense, look for their woes to continue against a rock-solid Patriots defense. While its true George Mason's numbers on the road this year aren't great, I expect they'll be looking to rebound after a poor effort at Georgia State in their last road game. They caught a lot of flak in that game for a real poor defensive effort (allowed Georgia State to shoot 55%) and I expect a senior-laden group like the Patriots to respond.
Finally, the disparity in talent was apparent between these two teams last season, when George Mason cruised to victory in both meetings, including a 20-point shellacking the last time they played in Delaware. Most likely a closer game this time around, but not nearly close enough to consider anyone but George Mason in this spot.
Take George Mason comfortably over Delaware in this CAA match up.
3. Mavericks- So the Pistons lose to the Celtics 92-85 at home, snapping their 11-game win streak, and now everyone expects them to get right back to their winning ways tonight at Dallas? Hold on a sec', but last time I checked, the Mavs were playing some damn good basketball themselves, beating Phoenix, Orlando, and Golden State recently in Dallas to name a few!
While Detroit's defense gets all the publicity, the Mavs D has been just as good over their last 5 games, with both teams allowing about 87 ppg on 41% shooting over that span. Key here is the Pistons defense tends to let up a little on the road, with opponents shooting 44.5% on the season... Not exactly lockdown numbers. With Dallas hitting its stride behind Nowitzki, Howard, and one of the deepest rosters in the NBA , stopping their offense isn't going to be as easy as some people think.
Match up-wise, the Pistons clearly have trouble stopping Nowitzki, who's obviously not your prototypical 7-footer. His ability to spread the Detroit defense is key to the Mavs success, because once they open up, slashers like Howard and Harris can goto work penetrating. Dallas' depth also come into play, as they Pistons subs are a better unit this season, but still not on the level of the Mavericks.
Finally, one has to wonder how focused the Pistons will be with a game at San Antonio looming the very next day. Its hard to overlook a team as good as Dallas, but if they're not 100% focused, Dallas will take advantage. Mavs have been damn good at home, going 16-3 SU (9-9-1 ATS), and while everyone jumps all over the Pistons in this "supposed" bounce back game, I'll stick with a one of the best teams in the West playing at home.
Take the Mavericks over the Pistons in this marquee NBA match up.