Sports Memo
OKLAHOMA - 1 ST JOES
Recommendation: Oklahoma
OKLAHOMA
Strengths ? Similar to Baylor, Oklahoma was a team that endured some rough spots but found a way to persevere. A lot of that came from having Blake Griffin back on the floor. Whether he is fully healthy or not, the guy comes to work and coupled with Longar Longar, makes Oklahoma strong on the front line. Teams that aren?t ready for an all out war underneath the basketball are in for it against this team.
Weaknesses ? Offensively, the Sooners go through stretches where they can?t put the ball in the basket. They averaged 55.8 ppg in their seven league losses and scored 53 and 54, respectively, in non-conference
games against Memphis and USC.
Overall ? It was hard getting a read on this team, but we got a glimpse of what they are capable of down the stretch as they won three straight to close out the regular season, thus playing their way into the tournament.
The worry, again, comes from if they can score. Defensively, they are solid, but will likely need a big night from Griffin to advance to round two. It was a little shocking to see them get a No. 6 seed when heading into the last two weeks of the regular season, then were considered
a bubble team.
Key Stat - Griffin and Longar attempted nearly half of Oklahoma?s free throw attempts, yet shot a combined 61%.
ST. JOSEPH?S
Strengths ? The Hawks have plenty of experience with five of their top six scorers being of upper-class descent. That attributed to their ability to bounce back after some bad spots throughout the season and win consistently on the road. Offensively, they were very efficient, shooting 48% FG and 75% FT in conference play.
Weaknesses ? They were caught napping enough this season to make it a concern. With losses to Holy Cross and La Salle at home, it made what should have been an easy trip to the tournament a grind. The stats weren?t bad, but a close look showed they ranked near the bottom
of the league in offensive and defensive rebounds. Also note, the A-10 was solid, but St. Joe?s was only 9-7 during the regular season and though they were close a couple of times, they failed to come up with a strong non-conference win.
Overall ? It was quite a roller coaster ride for the Hawks this season. They started out 4-4, won 11 of 12, lost six of nine and then reach the finals of the A-10 Tournament. Motivation was a big key with this team. A look at their schedule shows they were in it against every formidable foe, but some mysterious losses make them a potential one and done candidate.
Key Stat - St. Joe?s won 13 road/neutral games this season and produced
a 12-5 ATS mark away from home.
Final Take - It wasn?t always pretty to watch Oklahoma, but this is a tough team that will smack you in the mouth on the defensive end. They endured a tough schedule and managed to come out okay despite
not having their best player healthy. We like the Sooners.
LOUISVILLE - 13 BOISE ST
Recommendation: Boise State
LOUISVILLE
Strengths ? The strength of this team is that they are now fully healthy. Doubts loomed early on, even when healthy, whether this was just another middle of the road Big East team. They ended up with a league-leading +9.8 scoring margin in one of, it not the top conference in the country. It took time for this team to gel, but Pitino
is doing what he does best and that?s getting max production from good but not great players.
Weaknesses ? The Cardinals struggle at times to score and a lot of that comes from them falling in love with the three-point shot. They are at their best when the offense goes through forwards David
Padgett and Terrence Williams. Sometimes those two become an afterthought on offense. They aren?t really built for coming from behind.
Overall ? Pitino doesn?t have a whole lot of superstar talent, but maybe that is why this year?s team is so successful. They pass well and have the ability to matchup defensively against any type of team. Few squads in the country played as well as Louisville during the last month of the regular season.
Key Stat - Louisville doesn?t have a player among the top 30 in scoring
in the Big East. David Padgett is the Cards? top scorer at 11.7 ppg.
BOISE STATE
Strengths ? Four seniors (Larry, Nelson, Tiedeman, Bauscher) run one of the most efficient and potent offenses in the country. The Broncos shoot 51% from the floor as a team, the second best mark in the NCAA this year. And the deadeyes shoot 40% from distance, a mark that puts them in the top 15 in the country. They rebound, they share the ball, and they have shown their leadership and experience
with quality efforts home and away.
Weaknesses ? Despite having the solid core of upperclassmen, and despite playing like a veteran team in most instances, it seemed at times that Boise State fell victim to lapses in concentration. On more than one occasion (see: Utah State at home, Siena at home, at New Mexico State) the Broncos tanked.
Overall ? When this team brings it for 40 minutes they can play with any team in the country. Winning the WAC Tournament by beating Utah State and the host Lobos only reinforces solid showings and wins over teams like Nevada, BYU and San Diego. They even gave Washington
State a mighty scare in the first half of their meeting earlier in the year. If they can make stops the offense will definitely be there.
Key Stat - Boise ranks in the top 15 nationally in points per game, FG% and 3-pt.% but just 258th in FT%.
Final Take - BSU is going to make Louisville work on the defensive end. When they come to play, the Broncos have one of the more efficient offenses
in the country. It won?t be easy to score on Louisville, but we like BSU?s offense late in the game in case of needing a back door cover.
BUTLER - 4 1/2 S. ALABAMA
Recommendation: South Alabama
BUTLER
Strengths ? Butler rarely beats themselves and that comes from not turning the ball over. They rank in the top 10 nationally in fewest turnovers per game and this offsets some of their deficiencies. Experience
is another strength with all but one of the Bulldogs? core group of players back from their Sweet 16 run of a year ago.
Weaknesses ? Rebounding is a sore spot with 6-1 guard Mike Green the team?s leading rebounder at 6.1 rpg. And as you can already assume,
so is size, with their front court featuring two 6-7 wing-type players. But in Butler?s defense, the system they run is predicated on having these versatile type of players that can knock down open shots. They beat Maryland in the second round of last year?s tourney despite being outdone on the glass by 15.
Overall ? The Bulldogs have quickly become the mid-major darlings of college basketball, though much respect has been given to them in the polls. As we stated before, this is not a team that is going to shoot itself in the foot. They are beatable, but it usually takes a cold shooting night or a superior front court like Florida?s last year to cause problems.
Key Stat - Dating back to last season Butler is 10-1 straight up and against the spread vs. teams from the six power conferences
.
SOUTH ALABAMA
Strengths ? Statistically, South Alabama is strong across the board. The have a big-time scorer in Demetric Bennett (20.9 ppg), and three other players that average double-digits. They can put up the points (75.5 ppg) but also defend when needed (41.7% FG defense). Their top two scorers also shoot over 83% from the free throw line.
Weaknesses ? The Sun Belt may have two teams in the tournament, but overall, it wasn?t that strong of a league. Case in point, Louisiana-
Lafayette tied for the third-best league record, yet was sub-.500 for the season. The Jaguars also had problems defending the three-point shot. In their six losses, they allowed their opponents to shoot 50-of-118, 42%. That?s 10% higher than what they allowed during the regular season.
Overall ? Western Kentucky may have won the Sun Belt Tournament,
but USA was the best team in the league and the most profitable at 17-9 ATS. They certainly deserved an at-large berth with four wins against tournament teams and a double OT loss at Vanderbilt.
Key Stat - Think your going to blow out USA? The Jaguars? six losses were by an average of 4.8 ppg, with none over a margin of nine.
Final Take - Not siding with South Alabama based only on this game being in Birmingham. They are virtually impossible to beat by more than a couple of buckets. Butler is good, but the Jaguars are not going to be intimidated like they may have been against a bigger school
TENNESSE - 20 AMERICAN
Recommendation: Tennessee First Half
TENNESSEE
Strengths ? The Vols are a deep team, with no player averaging over 30 minutes per game. That depth allows them to not only press, but also play a breakneck pace at both ends of the court. Preparation and big game performance are also strong points as we saw against Memphis.
Weaknesses ? There are times when Tennessee gets complacent and settles for the outside shot when attacking the basket is what they do best. Guard Chris Lofton has put together a monster season, but due to a lack of size and quickness, he can be shut down by top defenders. They have shown, however, they can win when Lofton struggles.
Overall ? Head coach Bruce Pearl has quickly developed his team into a National Title contender. They don?t hold the same attributes as a North Carolina or UCLA, but they?ve shown to everyone that Pearl?s style equals wins. It should also be noted that because of their philosophy of attack, attack, attack, the Vols aren?t going to take it easy on teams early on. Case in point, the 121 points they scored against Long Beach State in last year?s opening round. It was a 35-point win as an 8-point favorite.
Key Stat - The Vols put up 282 points (94 ppg) in their three tournament
games last season. All but 16 of those points are back this year.
AMERICAN
Strengths ? They posted some great defensive numbers, holding teams to 41% FG and 61.8 ppg. Their star player, Garrison Carr, averaged
3.8 ppg as a sophomore but exploded this year with a 18.2 average, including 89% from the line.
Weaknesses ? The Eagles? two leading rebounders averaged only 4.1 per game. Neither one of them is taller than 6-6. That lack of height and physical prowess allowed Georgetown to shoot 60% during their matchup. Tennessee isn?t all that big in terms of size, but athletically, few were able to matchup with the Vols and American
will likely give up a lot of points in the paint.
Overall ? You can thank American?s top 100 RPI ranking on a three-game stretch in which they played Dayton, Maryland and Georgetown.
They actually held the lead at half against Dayton before losing by seven. Their storybook performance was the 8-point win at Maryland. They outrebounded the Terps by seven but that was more based on UM shooting 36% from the floor. Against Georgetown,
they lost by 27. The hope is that those games weren?t too long ago where they can use the experience to benefit them.
Key Stat - 6-11 Frane Markusovic scored 22 in the season opener. Since then, due to injuries, he?s had just 12 points in seven games.
Final Take - Against Long Beach State last year, Tennessee came out firing and put the game out of reach in a hurry. You?ll likely see the Vols press early just to see if American can handle it. The Vols should be able to attack the Eagles from all angles and have success.
CLEMSON - 6 1/2 VILLANOVA
Recommendation: Villanova
CLEMSON
Strengths ? The Tigers have a multitude of scoring options featuring
six players that can easily get to double figures in any game. Sharp-shooting duo KC Rivers and Terrence Oglesby light it up outside,
James Mays and Trevor Booker can do the dirty work inside. Their man-to-man defense was spotty at times, but Clemson did force over 17 turnovers per game in ACC play.
Weaknesses ? Free throw shooting has been a major flaw for this team. The 62% ranks 321st in the nation. They also need to do a better
job at rebounding the ball; they can get away with that against lesser teams, but not against real contenders in the tournament.
Overall ? This team is always chastised for their consistently weak non-conference schedule in padding their early resume. This year was no different but was highlighted by wins at Alabama and Mississippi
State. But what is different with this year?s team was how they responded down the stretch in critical ACC bouts when the talent level increased. They were 10-6 overall in the conference, not once losing back-to-back ACC games. They took UNC to OT twice showing they can compete with anyone.
Key Stat - Aside from Charlotte the Tigers suffered just one loss of more than nine points all season.
VILLANOVA
Strengths ? Guard Scottie Reynolds is a gamer and the backbone of the team. He?s shown that he can step up when needed with a 22-point, six assist effort in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. They can also go get it on the glass, averaging over 13 offensive rebounds per contest.
Weaknesses ? Big East or not, the Wildcats beat just two teams that made the Dance (UConn and West Virginia) from the Big East and both of those games were at home. And there has been more than one occasion
this team has mailed it in on the defensive end. During the mid-season six-game losing streak, they allowed nearly 80 ppg. This isn?t a very good shooting team either at 43% on the season.
Overall ? The Wildcats sort of backed into a spot in the tournament rather than earning it. Syracuse was made mockery by the media at the end, so you knew they weren?t getting in, and with no bubble teams having really much of anything to brag about, being in the Big East seemed to be the deciding factor. The question to ask is, is a .500 Big East team capable of playing with a second-tier ACC squad like the Clemson Tigers?
Key Stat - The last two years combined, Villanova has failed to cover a tournament game in five attempts.
Final Take - Like a lot of teams who were clearly the last to slip in the tournament, Villanova is now playing with house money. Clemson played out of its mind down the stretch and now must face a fellow power conference foe. Looks like prime pickings for taking the poin
VANDY - 7 1.2 SIENA
Recommendation: Over
VANDERBILT
Strengths ? There are few teams with Vanderbilt?s capabilities on the offensive end of the floor. They can knock it down from three and with the addition of freshman center AJ Ogilvy, they now have the perfect amount of balance. And that balance is a result of them being an outstanding passing team, ranking among the nation?s leaders in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Weaknesses ? This isn?t the strongest of defenses. At home, they were solid, but on the road, they allowed a handful of high scores. They also had some trouble with some of the more athletics teams in the SEC as Florida and Ole Miss pounded them on the boards.
Overall ? It was a winning proposition with the Commodores last season at they easily covered all three tournament games. Ogilvy
and Shan Foster make up one of the more dangerous inside-outside combos in the country and the supporting cast is good enough to keep the ship afloat if one of the two has an off night. After an incredible regular season and last year?s near trip to the Elite Eight, this is a team capable of making a Final Four run if the offense continues to click.
Key Stat - Not known for its defense, Vanderbilt forced 50 turnovers in three tournament games last season.
SIENA
Strengths ? The key to a good team is having players than can score at an efficient rate. The Saints have two in forwards Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin who do just that. The tandem combines to average 32.5 ppg, 12 rpg and 55% from the floor. They aren?t overly big in stature at 6-5 and 6-7, but they give Siena a chance to score in the paint. As a team, they also own one of the better turnover margins in the country at +6.28.
Weaknesses ? Rebounding is going to be a major issue as they ranked dead last in the MAAC with a -4.5 margin per game. They make up for it some with some quickness (9.4 steals per game), but after being outdone
on the glass by Memphis and Syracuse by an average of 18, second
chance opportunities may be limited.
Overall ? This is a quality basketball team that ranked higher in the RPI than Arizona State, Rhode Island and Wake Forest to name a few. They had a triumphant win over Stanford (without Brooks Lopez) early in the season and lost to Syracuse in the Carrier Dome by seven.
They also pounced on Boise State by 23 in Idaho during Bracket Buster weekend.
Key Stat - Siena was the lone team in the conference to average over 2,500 fans per game with a strong mark of 6,100.
Final Take - We weren?t impressed much with Vanderbilt?s defense down the stretch. They are also a completely different team on the road. Siena spent much of its conference season putting up big points. We think the Saints keep it close and that means a ton of points.
DAVIDSON - 1 1/2 GONZAGA
Recommendation: Davidson
GONZAGA
Strengths ? A good mix of speed and size at the point with Jeremy Pargo and decent interior size with Josh Heytvelt (though he sometimes
likes to float around the perimeter) compliments the grittiness
of Pendergraft and Bouldin for the Bulldogs. This team is very efficient on both the offensive and defensive end, ranking in the top 20 nationally in FG percentage and FG percentage allowed.
Weaknesses ? They need to do a better job at protecting the ball and putting a body on a body against good teams. While their +5.8 seasonal average in rebound margin earned them a national ranking
of 24th a close look shows them struggling against the power conferences ? In WCC play they featured a +7.6 margin, in games vs. teams from the power conferences they featured a -3.5 margin.
Overall ? While they dominated most of the WCC again this year they weren?t nearly as impressive against the top two or three teams. They had nice wins over Virginia Tech, St. Joe?s, and UConn but lost by margin to Oklahoma, Tennessee and as a 6.5-point favorite to Texas Tech. With their reputation built up over the better part of a decade, this team just doesn?t get overlooked by many, including the betting public.
Key Stat - Every loss but one (Texas Tech) for Gonzaga were by teams that made the tournament.
DAVIDSON
Strengths ? It isn?t necessarily size or quickness, natural athletic ability or amazing god given skills that make this a dangerous team. Davidson is simply a scrappy bunch of kids who were passed up by bigger schools and play with a chip on their shoulder. Fundamentally
sound they feature a solid 1.4-to-1 assist to turnover ratio as a team, led by Jason Richards? 8-to-3 mark at PG. His eight assists, by the way, leads the NCAA ranks.
Weaknesses ? This team likes to push the pace but sometimes they rush their shots rather than take the time to set up a planned attack. When they rush it leads to easy buckets for opponents and those who do outclass them usually take advantage. Aside from Curry there is not much of an outside threat. It cost them in games against the big boys like UNC, UCLA and Duke who were much more efficient.
Overall ? This team has tournament experience with Sander, Richards
and Meno all back from last year?s squad. They also have back a legitimate game-changer in Stephen Curry, one of the country?s leading scorers. Quite frankly they could beat any team in this tournament
if the shots are falling.
Key Stat - Davidson was 0-4 SU but 4-0 ATS against Power Conference
schools this year with no loss by more than seven points.
Final Take - Yeah, they?re from a small conference, but Davidson?s starting
five can matchup against nearly everyone in the country. Gonzaga is still a good team and program, but they are down a tick or two from past years. It is simple, just back the better team - Davidson
GEORGETOWN - 16 1/2 UMBC
Recommendation: Over
GEORGETOWN
Strengths ? The experience of last year?s Final Four run certainly helps. Georgetown isn?t a pretty team to watch, but they stick to their guns and end up lulling teams to sleep with its half court sets. Defensively, this team doesn?t get enough credit. Yeah, they slow things down, but they rank towards the top nationally in field goal and scoring defense playing in arguably the best conference in the country.
Weaknesses ? The Hoyas don?t have anyone who can take over a game when needed. Last year, they rode the back of Jeff Green for most of the postseason. DeJuan Summers and Jonathan Wallace are not that type of player. Roy Hibbert is efficient, but can only score within the offense. Playing team basketball is a lost art form and a reason why GU is successful, but during the tournament, you are bound to have late game possessions when you need to clear the floor and let your best player go to work. Unfortunately, they just don?t have that guy.
Overall ? Due to the lack of pace, Georgetown isn?t built for blowing out teams. They posted a dismal 4-9 ATS record as a double-digit favorite during the regular season and will likely find themselves in that situation in round one.
Key Stat - Out of their five tournament games a year ago, Georgetown led at halftime in only one contest ? opening round vs. Belmont.
MARYLAND-BALTIMORE COUNTY
Strengths ? A lot of balance and offense from this team with four players averaging between 13 and 17 ppg. Three of the four are seniors,
but in their first year at UMBC after transferring in. The Retrievers?
point guard, Jay Greene, has just under 500 assists in his three-year career. They managed 74 shots and 83 points against an Ohio State team that had a regular season defensive average of 61.3 ppg.
Weaknesses ? Not only is the tournament a new thing (first bid in school history) for the Retrievers but so is winning. This is a team that averaged only 9.2 wins per season over the last five years. They took a shot on a bunch of transfers and it panned out, but they are certainly in uncharted territory.
Overall ? Since a nine-point loss at Ohio State, UMBC went on to win 16 of 19. The three losses were by a combined seven points. We?ve mentioned the success of the incoming transfers. They also lost only one game all season by double-digits (West Virginia by 24). That ability to keep things close matches up well against the slow down tactics the Hoyas may try to employ.
Key Stat - UMBC defeated both La Salle and Richmond on the road, two teams that posted .500 or better league records in the A-10.
Final Take - Everyone knows about the Hoyas? defensive prowess, but they are hitting their stride of late on the offensive end. The Retrievers know their only chance in this one is to try to make the game a 90-foot affair. Hoyas efficiency + UMBC?s nothing to lose attitude = Over
