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VANDERBILT
Game: Siena vs. Vanderbilt Game Time: 3/21/2008 7:20:00 PM Prediction: Vanderbilt Reason: I'm laying the points with VANDERBILT. Anything can happen during the Big Dance. However, for every Belmont (lost by 1 to Duke as a 20 point underdog) there are also plenty of cases where the "better" team from the stronger conference not only wins, but wins big. Favorites priced in this range had a very good day yesterday. In fact, teams which were favored in the -5 to -15 range went a perfect 10-0 (includes two games from the NIT) against the the number yesterday. The Commodores fall in the low end of that range, which I feel gives us excellent value. At 26-17, Vanderbilt comes in with the significantly better record. That's saying something when considering that the Commodores were playing the likes of Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida and Miss. State, while the Saints were playing teams like Canisius, Rider, Marist and Niagara. After losing at Syracuse, the Saints pulled an unlikely upset of Stanford. However, that was way back in November before the Cardinal was playing the way they are now. Note that the Saints followed up that upset with a loss vs. Cornell in their next game. December saw them face a pair of tournament teams in St. Joseph's and Memphis. They lost by "only" six while hosting the Hawks but then got massacred 102-58 when facing Memphis. The Commodores didn't have to face Memphis. However, they did face Tennessee right after the Vols had just beaten Memphis to become the #1 team in the country. Not only were the Commodores competitive, they won outright. Non-conference play saw the Commodores go a perfect 15-0 SU with wins over the likes of South Alabama, Utah State, Bradley, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. A lot of people are saying Siena has a solid shot at scoring an upset. The Commodores have heard that talk and they come in with a chip on their shoulder as a result. Shan Foster, the unanimous choice for SEC player of the year had this to say: "We've won 26 games. We're not a 4 seed by a miracle, you know. We're confident that we're going to go in and execute our game plan and give it all we've got and come out with a victory..." Note that a lot of people were saying Vandy would get upset in the first round last year too. The Commodores responded to that talk by destroying George Washington by 33 points. Including that result, they're 5-1 ATS their last six NCAA tournament games. I expect them to improve on those numbers with another convincing victory here. *Personal Favorite
UCONN
Game: San Diego vs. Connecticut Game Time: 3/21/2008 3:00:00 PM Prediction: Connecticut Reason: I'm laying the points with CONNECTICUT. I believe this will be a mismatch. The Huskies really came together over the final months. They've got a strong and deep backcourt while center Hasheem Thabeet earned Defensive Player of the Year honors in the Big East by being a shot-blocking machine in the paint. Despite the fact that they played in the very strong Big East conference, the Huskies outscored opponents by a 77.7 to 68.6 margin on the season. Conversely, despite playing in an extremely weak WCC Conference (Gonzaga and St. Mary's are good but every other team is terrible) the Toreros only outscored opponents by a 65.6 to 63.4 margin. Obviously, defense has been their "strength." However, the Huskies were 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that they faced a team which allows 64 points or less per game. Like Georgia yesterday, the Toreros wouldn't be here if not for an improbable win in their conference tournament. Georgia managed to get off to a good start yesterday. However, Xavier's superior talent eventually became too much too overcome. Look for the Huskies' overall talent edge to prove to be too much here as well, as they improve to 7-2 ATS on the season when playing a game with an over/under line in the 130s.
SOUTH ALABAMA
Game: South Alabama vs. Butler Game Time: 3/21/2008 2:40:00 PM Prediction: South Alabama Reason: I'm taking the points with SOUTH ALABAMA. The betting public loves Butler. They don't know much about this very good South Alabama team though and that's given us excellent value with the Jaguars. The Jags were beaten by Middle Tennessee State in the conference tournament. However, they'd previously won six straight and 22 of 24. They beat a very solid Western Kentucky team twice in conference play. Outside of conference play, they beat a strong Mississippi State outright (also beat San Diego by double-digits) while losing by just three at both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Considering how tough Vanderbilt was at home all season, that was no small feat. Although his team managed to upset the Jags, Middle Tennessee coach Kermit Davis had the following to say: "It's like I said and I'll reiterate the fact, No. 1 is how good a team South Alabama has, not just in the Sun Belt but nationally. There's no question that's an at-large team. They're going to be in the NCAA Tournament and I would not be surprised if they win a game in the tournament. They're that good." While Butler was just 7-9-1 ATS off a conference win this season (60-70 ATS L130 in that role), South Alabama was 2-0 SU/ATS off a confernece loss, winning each game by double-digits. Looking back further and we find the Jaguars at a profitable 41-25 ATS their last 66 lined games when coming off a conference loss. The combination of guards Demetric Bennett, Daon Merritt and Domonic Tilford give the Jags a chance to score inside or out. The Jags are also capable of winning inside with the trio of Brandon Davis, Andre Coleman and Ronald Douglas. While I'll be taking all the points I can get, I won't be at all surprised to see an "upset" here, with the Jags improving to 7-1 ATS their last eight lined non-conference games.
GONZAGA
Game: Davidson vs. Gonzaga Game Time: 3/21/2008 12:25:00 PM Prediction: Gonzaga Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. Talk about no respect. After eight straight wins, Gonzaga loses one game (vs. San Diego) and now finds itself listed as an underdog vs. Davidson. Granted, the Wildcats are no slouches. In fact, they've got the longest winning streak in Division 1-A at the moment and they're also playing very close to home. Playing close to home is certainly significant and the winning streak is also pretty impressive. However, a closer look at the winning streak and their overall schedule shows that the toughest team they have beaten all year is Winthrop (outscored 42-11 in the second half yesterday!) and that they had a losing record in non-conference play. While they did play some heavyweights tough, back in December, they didn't beat any of them. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has proven it can beat quality opponents, anywhere and any time. The Bulldogs beat the likes of Western Kentucky, Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's, Georgia, Utah and even Connecticut. While the Wildcats have only two players averaging greater than 7.8 points per game (star shooting guard Stephen Curry and point guard Jason Richards) the Bulldogs boast six players who average a minimum of 8.2 points per game, including four in double figures. Yes, Curry is a genuine star. However, the Bulldogs have a conference player of the year of their own in point guard Jeremy Pargo. Pargo is a "big game player" and I expect him to bring his "A-Game" with a chance to go up against the heavily hyped Curry. I also expect Austin Daye to be able to take advantage of the Wildcats' forwards and have a big game. The Bulldogs are 37-13 SU their last 50 games played in March, going 8-2 SU in first round tournament games during that stretch. Look for their superior depth combined with their big game and tournament experience to be the difference.
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Game: Western Kentucky vs. Drake Game Time: 3/21/2008 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Western Kentucky Reason: I'm taking the points with WESTERN KENTUCKY. Drake has been a "media darling" while Western Kentucky has been playing under the radar. That has given us excellent value on a very solid Hilltopper team. Western Kentucky has won six straight games and all six wins came by double-digits. Looking back further and we find the Hilltoppers at a highly impressive 17-1 their last 18 games with the lone loss coming by just five points. Its true that the competition wasn't the best. However, when facing elite non-conference teams earlier in the season, the Hilltoppers lost by only six vs. Tennessee and by just three vs. Gonzaga. Facing slightly weaker non-conference foes saw the Hilltoppers beat the likes of Nebraska and Michigan. Western Kentucky isn't particularly tall or deep inside. However, neither is Drake, which makes this a good matchup for the Hilltoppers. Like Drake, the Hilltoppers (27-6) start three guards Courtney Lee, Tyrone Brazelton and Ty Rogers. All three are seniors and I expect their experience to pay big dividends against a Drake team which has overachieved all season and which hasn't been to the postseason in many years. Drake's press gives up open looks and the Hilltoppers, who shoot 38.9% from beyond the arc, have the ingredients to make them pay. While I'll be taking all the points I can get, I won't be at all surprised to see an "upset" here, with the Hilltoppers improving to 7-0 ATS in neutral court games on the season. *Best Bet
