Drew Gordon
1. 200,000♦ Santa Clara
2. 50,000♦ Pepperdine
3. 50,000♦ 76ers
1. Santa Clara- Several strong factors point to Santa Clara in this one, but let's start with their last meeting, an 87-82 Gonzaga OT win, but Broncos cover, back on February 2nd. First of all, for anyone who watched the game, you know the Zags were bailed out late in regulation by a bullshit foul, as the Broncos clearly should've won outright. Granted, it won't be as close tonight, but the Broncos gained a tremendous amount on confidence and motivation from that razor close home loss.
Second, another thing we learned from their last meeting, is that the Bulldogs don't have the personnel to match up with Broncos C John Bryant. Despite throwing both 6'11 Daye and 6'10 Heytvelt at Bryant in that game, the Broncos talented big man dropped in 22 points, going 12 of 13 from the free throw line. Not only that, but since that game Bryant has been on a tear, except in his last one against Portland... Look for him to bounce back BIG after scoring in single-digits (9 points) for only the second time all season against Portland.
Third, it's hard to ignore the situational factors in this one, as Gonzaga is coming off an emotional win against St. Mary's just two days ago, and very well could fall flat tonight against the 14-14 Broncos. The Zags know their in, so going "balls to the wall" tonight is not likely. Not only that, but for all the talk about the Broncos sub-par record, they've been solid ATS of late, going 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games, including their cover against Gonzaga.
Bottom line, while I expect the Bulldogs to win this game tonight, I couldn't disagree more with the margin. Santa Clara came razor close to beating the Zags at the Leavey Center in their last meeting, and tonight, they'll keep it well within the number once again. Revenge, a lack of energy from Gonzaga, plus big games from Bryant and G Brody Angley, help the Broncos grab the cash late Monday night!
Take Santa Clara plus the points over Gonzaga as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Pepperdine- To be perfectly honest, both of these teams are hard to watch. However, at the very least the Waves have shown some improvement, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games. While on the other hand, its clear the Dons could really care less, going 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games overall.
Guys, both these teams are average offensively, but lately, its been the Waves defense that has them keeping games competitive, allowing 72 ppg on 50% shooting over their last 5 games (3 of those 5 on the road). I know it looks bad, but when compared to the Dons recent play, its downright solid, as San Fran is allowing 76 ppg on 52% shooting over the same span, with 4 of those 5 games played at home, making it that much worse than Pepperdine.
Another factor to consider is revenge, as the Dons beat the Waves on their home floor 85-82 back on February 2nd, and will be looking for some payback tonight on the road. Speaking of the road, its been a good place to side with the Waves, as they've gone 10-3 ATS over their last 13 away! Not only that, but their offense remains potent when they travel, scoring 73 ppg (only a 1-point drop from their season average).
Finally, let's look over some trends, including the fact the road team AND the underdog are both 9-1 ATS over their last 10 meetings! Pepperdine falls under both, and when you couple that with the revenge factor, and their recent solid play, you've got all the makings of a Waves cover in this one. Take the points, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Pepperdine wins outright here... That's how poorly San Fran is playing right now!
Take Pepperdine plus the points over San Francisco in this WCC match up.
3. 76ers- Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions, as the 76ers are surging, while the Clippers are tail-spinning. Philly has been rolling over their last 16 games, going 11-5 SU & 12-3-1 ATS over that span! The Clippers meanwhile, have been garbage of late, losing 5 straight (1-4 ATS) and really struggling on offense over that span.
Speaking of the Clippers struggles, just how in the world do you expect this Clippers offense to keep pace with a red-hot Philly attack? LA is averaging just 85 ppg on a laughable 39% shooting over their last 5 games. It should come as no surprise that their scoring woes coincide with the loss Sam Cassell, their best and most experienced point guard.
So what has Philly rolling? It all starts with the other A.I., you know Andre Iguodala, who's been on a tear recently. Not only that, but unlike the Clippers, the 76ers are getting excellent point guard play from Andre Miller, who's playing some of his best basketball in recent years right now. Philly is running a very short rotation, but its worked, as their team chemistry is at an all-time high... If you don't believe me, just ask the Phoenix Suns, who lost outright 119-114 to Philly as 9'-point home favorites on Saturday!
Finally, let's look at the match ups, as the Clippers have been decimated by injuries, and besides Maggette and occasionally Kaman, they have very little true NBA talent on their roster, especially now that Tim Thomas is also hurting with a groin injury. Look guys, this Clippers team is a disaster right now, and until they get Elton Brand back, they'll continue to struggle, especially against a red-hot team like Philly! 76ers roll in this one!
Take the 76ers comfortably over the LA Clippers in late NBA action.