BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
WASHINGTON STATE
Game: Notre Dame vs. Washington St. Game Time: 3/22/2008 6:40:00 PM Prediction: Washington St. Reason: I'm laying the points with WASHINGTON STATE. These teams aren't playing for the title and the saying "defense wins championships" is somewhat over-used. That being said, I expect the better defensive team to win this interesting matchup, featuring Notre Dame's explosive offense vs. Washington State's dominant defense. While the Irish outcored opponents by an 80.2-69.6 margin this season, the Cougars outscored their opponents by a 67.2-56.5. That's a very similar margin of victory. However, if we look at the games which were played away from home, we find that the Cougars were significantly stronger. Washington State is 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS away from home, outscoring opponents by a 66.9 to 58.9 margin. Notre Dame, on the other hand, is 8-7 SU/ATS away from home, outscoring opponents by a 75.9 to 72.5 margin. Both teams were impressive in the first round. However, in my opinion, Washington State was more dominant. After receiving a "wake-up call" in the first half, the Cougars crushed Winthrop by a 41-10 count in the second half of Thursday's game. That led to a decisive victory and gives them some major momentum coming into the second round. Today's over/under line is currently 133.5 or 134. That gives us an idea of the the expected pace/tempo of the game and it's one that should favor the Cougars. Note that the Irish are 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU!) the last seven times that they played a neutral court game with an over/under line in the 130 to 134.5 range. While Notre Dame is also 7-13 ATS the last 20 times it played a game with an over/under line in the 130s, during the same stretch, Washington State is a profitable 14-5 ATS when playing a game with an over/under line in the 130s, going a near perfect 18-1 SU. while beating up on the weaker teams in the Big East, Notre Dame struggled somewhat against the top defenses of the conference, losing vs. the likes of Louisville, Georgetown and UConn. The Irish are 15-19 SU the past three seasons against teams which allow 77 points or less per game, including an ugly 6-14 SU mark when those games came during the second half of the season. Looking at the teams that defeated the Cougars and we find that they were primarily teams like UCLA, Stanford and USC, which play strong or excellent defense. The Cougars didn't have much trouble against high-scoring teams though as they went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS against teams which score 77 or more points per game. Looking back further and we find that they're a profitable 14-4 SU/ATS their last 18 against teams which average 77 or more points per game. Look for the Cougars to improve on those stats today, building momentum off the Winthrop game and dropping the Irish to 1-5 SU/ATS their last six against teams from the Pac-10. *2nd Round Game of the Year
MICHIGAN STATE
Game: Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh Game Time: 3/22/2008 9:10:00 PM Prediction: Michigan State Reason: I'm taking the points with MICHIGAN STATE. These are both solid physical teams and both were impressive in the first round. The Panthers opened as the slight favorite, due to the fact that they closed out Big East play on a big run. They've also been bet up since then, which I feel gives us excellent value with the very talented underdog. Make no mistake, Michigan State is a very capable team. In addition to conference wins over the likes of Indiana and Purdue, the Spartans were a highly impressive 13-1 SU (9-2 ATS in lined games!) in non-conference play. That includes neutral or road court wins over the likes of BYU, Missouri. Bradley and Texas. In fact, the Spartans lone non-conference loss came vs. UCLA, arguably the best team in the country. Note that the Spartans led almost the entire way in that game too and were still up 63-61 with two minutes remaining. They eventually lost by five (as +5.5 underdogs) but earned a narrow pointspread win. Including that result, they're a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing on a neutral court this season. Note that Michigan State's gritty preseason All-American Drew Neitzel missed the team's morning meetings and practice, didn't eat all day and wasn't sure if he'd be able to play even minutes before the UCLA game. Neitzel played but was just 4-of-11 from the field and looking exhausted during and after the game. My point is that the Spartans very well could have won that game with a healthy Neitzel. Having also beaten Texas, I believe that the Spartans have shown, when playing their best, that they are capable of knocking off any team in the country. Coach Izzo has always been great at getting his teams to "play their best" during the tournament and I expect his squad to be fully fired up. Including Thursday's win and cover, the Spartans are 25-9 SU (21-12-1 ATS) their last 34 NCAA Tournament games. They're also 6-2 ATS the last eight times they were a neutral court underdog of three points or less, winning five of those games outright. Pittsburgh is tough but so is Michigan State. Behind a clutch performance from their senior guard (Neitzel) I expect the Spartans to score the minor upset and advance to the Sweet 16. *Best Bet
UNDER kansas/unlv
Game: Kansas vs. UNLV Game Time: 3/22/2008 6:50:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Kansas and UNLV to finish UNDER the total. The Jayhawks are right there among the best teams in the country. While their offense rightfully gets a lot of credit, their defense is also really strong. In fact, they allowed an average of just 61.6 points per game on the season, including just 27.5 in the first half, holding opponents to 38.2% shooting. The Jayhawks held Portland State right to that average in the opening round, allowing 61 points. That marked the seventh time in their past 10 games that an opponent has failed to reach 65 points. The Jayhawks, who averaged 74.4 points when playing away from home (81.6 overall), will face a UNLV defense that is playing very well right now. The Rebels held Kent State to 58 points in the first round. That was fairly impressive. However, Kent State doesn't score that much to begin with. Even more impressive was the fact that held BYU to 61 points in their previous game, as the Cougars came into that game averaging 74.5 points per game. Prior to that, the Rebels limited Utah to a mere 55 points. Including those results, they've now held eight of their last nine opponents to 65 points or less and 10 of their past 15 to 61 points or less. While its pretty unlikely that they'll keep Kansas below 61, the Rebels should be able to do a better job of slowing the Jayhawks down than most teams have done recently. Note the UNLV has seen the UNDER go 6-3 this season when listed as an underdog and that the Rebels have also seen the UNDER go 10-5 the last 15 times they faced a team which averages 77 or more points per game. Depending on when and where one played the total, the Jayhawks' game against Portland State could have resulted in an 'under' and 'over' or a 'push,' as the final score landed pretty much right on the number and there was some line movement. Even counting that as an 'over,' the Jayhawks have still seen the UNDER go 26-14 their last 40 non-conference games which had a total and a highly profitable 66-46 in non-conference games over the past decade. The fact that the over/under number has been bet up a few points from its opener has provided us with solid line value and I look for the final combined score to be lower than expected. *Annihilator
NBA
MILAWUKEE
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Time: 3/22/2008 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks Reason: I'm taking the points with MILWAUKEE. The betting public will surely love Cleveland in this matchup and that already seems to be the case based on the early "consensus" numbers. After all, what's not to like. Milwaukee's been losing, while Lebron has been playing well and the Cavs have been winning. I typically see things a little "differently" though and I also see this evening's game being played out differently. The Cavs received a tough fight from the Raptors last night but eventually prevailed, winning by seven and covering by a basket. That was a big (and emotional) game. Not only did Lebron become the top scorer in franchise history but the game marked a possible first round preview (as the Raptors and Cavs could well finish 4th and 5th) and the win helped strengthen Cleveland's hold on fourth, which means they'd get homecourt advantage in the first round. That was the second straight emotional victory for the Cavs, as they had beaten their rival and division-leading Pistons two nights earlier. After those back to back huge and important victories, it may be hard to 'get up emotionally' for tonight's lesser opponent. Regardless of their 'emotional state,' its worth noting that the Cavs have gone 0-4 SU the last four times that they played the second of back to back games. That brings them 4-9 the last 13 times they played the second of back to back games. This is worse than most back to back situations though. Not only are the Cavs coming off the back to back emotional victories but they're also playing their fifth game in the past seven nights. Conversely, the Bucks haven't played since 3/18 and this will be just their third game in the past nine days. Despite a few losses here recently, the Bucks have been competitive at home all season. They're 11-4 ATS on the season when coming off three or more consecutive losses and 5-2 ATS when listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. They've also played the Cavs tough, winning two of three games and losing the other by just five points. Look for the Bucks to have the fresher legs tonight, as they deliver a highly moitvated effort and improve to 5-0 ATS the last five series meetings. *Contrarian GOW
NEW ORLEANS
Game: Boston Celtics vs. New Orleans Hornets Game Time: 3/22/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: New Orleans Hornets Reason: I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Celtics have been playing very well. However, this is a tough spot as it represents the fifth and final stop of their difficult 5-game road trip. Yes, the Celtics had last night off. However, this is still their sixth game in the past nine nights (10th game in last 15!) and their three previous games came against the three "Texas" teams - Houston, Dallas and San Antonio. In other words, I won't be surprised if they're finally affected by some road weariness. Regardless of how they're feeling, winning at New Orleans is no easy task. Indeed, the Hornets are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS their last eight games here with ALL eight victories coming by double-digits. Most recently, the Hornets humbled Houston by a score of 90-69. That blowout came back on 3/19, meaning they're well-rested for tonight's big game. Note that New Orleans is 9-3-1 ATS (11-2 SU) this season after holding its previous opponent to 85 points or less and 21-10-1 ATS (24-8 SU) when coming off a double-digit win. This game is arguably more important to the Hornets. While the Celtics have locked up their division and all but wrapped up the Eastern Conference, the Hornets are currently in a major battle in the southwest, as only three game seperate the top four teams in the division. This game becomes even more important when considering that the Hornets embark on a 6-game Eastern Road trip after this, which includes a rematch vs. Boston next week. Look for the Hornets to be both the hungrier and the fresher team, as they cool off the Celts and continue their excellent play on homecourt. *Personal Favorite