Dr. Bob
BALTIMORE 17 Tennessee (-2.5) 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
The Ravens and Titans have had two of the best defensive teams in the NFL so far this season with Baltimore allowing just 3.5 yppl in 3 games and Tennessee yielding only 4.2 yppl. Baltimore?s defense has taken a couple of hits with the injuries to CB Samari Rolle and S Dawan Landry and the Ravens went from allowing just 2.7 yards per pass play in their first 2 games to given up 6.2 yppp to the Steelers on Monday night. Baltimore has a history of struggling against the pass when either Rolle or fellow CB Chris McAllister are out, but the secondary still looked decent last week and the run defense is outstanding (3.2 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.0 ypr against an average team). Tennessee won?t have any success running the football in this game, but Kerry Collins should post decent numbers by picking on backup CB Fabian Washington. Baltimore?s offense depends on the running of bruising back Le?Ron McClain (215 yards at 4.1 ypr), but the Titans are 0.6 ypr better than average at defending the run (3.8 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team) and Ravens? rookie quarterback Joe Flacco (just 4.6 yards per pass play) isn?t going to have any success throwing against a very good Tennessee pass defense that?s yielded just 4.5 yppp to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average team. Baltimore does have an edge in special teams, but my ratings favor Tennessee by 3 ? points. I?ll still lean with Baltimore, however, based on a 122-54-8 ATS statistical indicator and a 74-32-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests the Ravens are the type of team that should cover as a home underdog.
Atlanta 0 GREEN BAY (pick) 0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I have a possible Best Bet on this game, but there is currently no line. Check back on Friday or Saturday (after the line goes up) for that analysis.
Chicago (-3.5) 26 DETROIT 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
It?s unlikely that Detroit will continue to play as poorly as they have been playing and bye weeks are usually a good tonic for ailing teams (underdogs after a bye are 40-20 ATS if they lost 3 or more consecutive games before their bye week), but I will still lean with the Bears in this game. Detroit has been out-gained by an average of 5.0 yards per play to 7.3 yppl by a mediocre schedule of teams and even significant improvement won?t be enough to win this game unless the Bears are completely flat. Chicago is still a below average offensive team (I rate them at 0.2 yppl below average), but the Bears? defense has been very good so far in allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. My ratings favor Chicago by 9 ? points in this game and the line value favoring Chicago is more significant than the favorable situation applying to Detroit.
CAROLINA (-9.5) 27 Kansas City 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Kansas City is much better with rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen on the bench and Damon Huard was at quarterback last week when the Chiefs upset the Broncos. Kansas City was in a very good situation last week, so don?t overreact to that one win. The Chiefs? pass attack is still bad with Huard at quarterback, as he was 0.7 yards per pass play worse than average last season (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and he has averaged just 5.5 yppp on 49 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp). Kansas City?s rushing attack suddenly looks pretty good (5.0 ypr) after Larry Johnson toyed with the Broncos? defense for 198 yards last week. Overall the Chiefs are 0.5 yards per play worse than average offensively, but they?ll be up against a Panthers? defense that?s allowed just 4.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Kansas City?s scoring opportunities will be limited and Carolina could easily pull away in this game with a slightly better than average attack going up against a bad KC stop unit that?s surrendered 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 ypppl against an average team. My math model favors Carolina by 15 points, but Kansas City applies to a very strong 55-16-2 ATS statistical profile indicator. The Chiefs also apply to a negative 19-50-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week?s upset win. I?ll lean with Carolina based on the line value even though the technical analysis slightly favors Kansas City.
HOUSTON 24 Indianapolis (-3.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Peyton Manning misses all of training camp and the pre-season and he hasn?t looked right the first 3 games of this season while averaging just 6.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback). The bye week should help Manning work out the kinks and I still rate the Colts? pass attack among the league?s best, but Indy?s rushing attack has been bad (3.6 ypr) and Houston should be pretty fired up to be playing a game at home after starting the season with 3 road losses (home dogs or picks are 7-4 ATS at home after 3 consecutive road losses). I had high expectations for the Texans this season and I used them last week for a Best Bet winner in their 27-30 overtime loss as a 7 point dog. Houston?s offense finally played up to their potential last week, averaging 6.3 yards per play against the Jags, and that unit should perform well against a Colts? defense that has had a tendency to struggle without reigning NFL Defensive MVP Bob Sanders in the lineup (he?s out 4 to 6 weeks with an injured ankle). The Colts gave up 403 yards at 5.8 yppl to the Jaguars in their first game without Sanders, which is a worse than average performance, and I think the Texans will move the ball pretty well in this game. Houston?s defense hasn?t looked good this season, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so Manning could bust out with a good game if the bye week served to get his timing back. My ratings favor Houston by 1 point, so I?ll lean with the Texans plus the points.
San Diego (-6.5) 27 MIAMI 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
The Chargers were lucky to get the spread win last week as a road favorite at Oakland, as they scored their final touchdown while trying to run out the clock after being down 0-15 at the half. The Chargers were in a bad situation last week and this week they face a Dolphins team that applies to a 38-8-3 ATS momentum situation and a 23-3 ATS home underdog off a bye angle. Miami destroyed New England 38-13 prior to their bye week and the Dolphins aren?t a bad team. Miami has a pretty good offense with a better than average rushing attack (4.4 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team) and a decent quarterback in Chad Pennington, who lit up the Patriots with 17 of 20 passing for 226 yards. Miami played great defensively against the Patriots, allowing just 3.7 yards per play, but they were exploited by Kurt Warner and the Cardinals for 7.8 yppl in week 2, so it?s tough to say how that unit will play today. San Diego?s explosive offense has averaged 6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and the Chargers should move the ball at their normal pace in this game (although I do think Philip Rivers will have a tough time keeping up the 8.5 yards per pass play average). Miami is certainly capable of keeping this game close against a mediocre Chargers? defense that?s allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team (they miss Shawne Merriman). My ratings favor San Diego by 7 ? points and using this year?s games only would result in a prediction of Chargers by 12 points. San Diego does apply to an 84-41-4 ATS situation, but that angle isn?t as good as the situational analysis that favors Miami. This game is tough to call with the line value favoring San Diego and the technical analysis favoring Miami.
PHILADELPHIA (-6.0) 21 Washington 12
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Washington looked confused by their new offense in their opening 7-16 loss to the Giants, but the Redskins appear to have figured out the new attack and have won 3 straight games, including their upset win in Dallas last week. That win was no fluke, as the Redskins have established themselves as one of the best teams in the league. Washington is now 0.4 yards per play better than average on offense (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and they?ve only turned the ball over 1 time in 4 games. That good fortune isn?t likely to last but Washington can rely on their underrated defense is they start to turn the ball over more. Washington has allowed a modest 5.4 yppl this season, but they?ve done so by holding 4 very good offensive teams (NYG, New Orleans, Arizona, and Dallas) to 1.0 yppl below the 6.4 yppl that those teams would combine to average against an average defensive team. The pass defense has been especially impressive in holding Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, and Tony Romo to just 5.9 yards per pass play. Donovan McNabb has above average passing numbers (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback), but he?ll probably struggle some too against the Redskins great pass defense. Philly?s rushing attack has been bad (3.8 ypr) and star RB Brian Westbrook will miss his second straight game this week. Westbrook?s absence actually doesn?t make the offense any worse, as he was averaging just 3.8 ypr this season while good backup Correll Buckhalter has averaged 4.1 ypr and 4.4 ypr for his career. While Philly rates at 0.3 yppl better than average offensively, their defense is what makes the Eagles a Super Bowl contender, as they?ve allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit. These are two of the top teams in the NFL and my math favors Philly by just 4 points, which is too bad because the Redskins apply to a negative 1-17-1 ATS subset of a 14-45-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their win as a big dog last week. I?ll favor Philly to cover based on that situation despite the negative line value.
NY GIANTS (-7.0) 26 Seattle 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Seattle has been a below average team so far this season, but the Seahawks get some much needed help on offense with the addition of starting wide receivers Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, who have yet to play this season and have both been upgraded to probable for this game. Seattle has had to scramble to find receivers to fill their roster with Engram and Branch out and with Nate Burleson getting injured in the first game of the season. Only Billy McMullen has been good (7 catches for 124 yards on 15 passes thrown to him in 2 games) and the wide receivers have combined to average just 5.3 yards per pass attempted, which is a horrible figure for wide receivers. Bobby Engram has consistently averaged 8.3 ypa in recent years and Branch has an average of 7.5 ypa in two seasons with Seattle. Throwing those two in with McMullen should put Matt Hasselbeck at around 8.0 ypa to his wide receivers, which would result in going from 4.9 yards per pass play that Hasselbeck is at now to 6.2 yppp, which is his career average. Seattle has a good rushing attack (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.6 ypr) and the Seahawks are suddenly an average offensive team after rating at 0.6 yards per play worse than average through 3 games. Seattle won?t likely have too much success in this game against a very good Giants? defense that has been 0.9 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Seattle?s defense has been mysteriously mediocre so far this season, allowing 5.2 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.2 yppl, and that unit is up against a good Giants? attack that has averaged 6.2 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack). The suspension of Plaxico Burress hurts the attack, as Burress has gained 259 yards on 28 passes thrown to him (9.3 ypa) while the other receivers Smith, Toomer, and Hixon have combined for an average of just 6.9 ypa. After making all the adjustments I still get New York by 11 points mathematically. Seattle applies to a very good 38-8-3 ATS underdog momentum situation, but New York applies to a 64-29-4 ATS statistical profile indicator. I?ll lean with the Giants.
DENVER (-3.0) 27 Tampa Bay 26
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Denver has been fantastic offensively this season (6.7 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Broncos can?t stop their opponents from being just as effective (they?ve also allowed 6.7 yppl ? to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team). The visiting Buccaneers are nothing special offensively overall (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), but Earnest Graham (334 yards at 5.9 ypr) and Warrick Dunn (197 yards at 4.7 ypr) should be able to run wild against a Broncos defensive front that?s allowed 5.0 ypr to teams that would combine to average just 4.2 ypr against an average team. Tampa Bay represents the best defensive team that the Broncos have faced so far (the Bucs are 0.4 yppl better than average), but Denver should still be able to put up enough points to keep up with what their defense allows. My math model favors Denver by 1 ? points and there are indicators favoring both sides in this game, so I?ll lean with Tampa Bay plus the points.
New England (-3.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
DALLAS (-17.0) 33 Cincinnati 13
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Cincinnati is now 0-4 after losing to the previously winless Browns last week and they will once again be without quarterback Carson Palmer, who was a game time decision to sit out last week?s game. Ryan Fitzpatrick was horrible, averaging just 3.7 yards per pass play against a Cleveland secondary that had been having problems defending the pass. Fitzgerald has averaged 4.8 yppp on 182 career pass plays and he?s also thrown 11 interceptions, which is a lot of picks for so few passes (he threw 3 last week). The Cowboys may not be in a sympathetic mood for the winless Bengals after getting upset by the Redskins last week and my math model favors Dallas by 20 points in this game.
ARIZONA (-1.0) 23 Buffalo 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
The Bills may be 4-0, but they?ve played a pretty easy schedule with just one decent opponent (a 20-16 win at Jacksonville) and they rate as below average from the line of scrimmage. Buffalo has averaged a modest 5.3 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and the Bills are just barely better than average defensively (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defensive unit). Buffalo annually has the NFL?s best special teams and they rank highly in that area again this season, so they are an above average team overall. Arizona, however, is also an above average team, as the Cardinals have been 1.0 yppl better than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yppl to an average team) and only 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). Arizona?s offense takes a hit with the injury to star WR Anquan Boldin, who had amassed 366 yards on 35 passes thrown to him this season (10.5 ypa). Kurt Warner still has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to (10.4 ypa on 40 passes thrown to him), but the two receivers replacing Boldin combine to average 8.1 ypa so there will be a drop in production from the pass attack ? although it will still be good. My math favors Arizona by 3 points after adjusting for the losses of Boldin and DL Bertrand Berry, who had 3 sacks in 3 games before getting hurt. Arizona applies to a 31-6 ATS bounce-back situation while Buffalo applies to an 84-41-4 ATS situation. The line value favors the Cardinals, and the angle favoring them is a bit stronger than the situation favoring Buffalo. I?ll lean with Arizona to hand the Bills their first loss.
JACKSONVILLE (-4.0) 20 Pittsburgh 17
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
Jacksonville applies to a 46-11-4 ATS subset of a 122-54-8 ATS statistical indicator in addition to applying to a solid 240-152-12 ATS statistical profile indicator. While those angles are worthy of a play on the Jaguars, my math model suggest a play on the Steelers. Pittsburgh may be thin at running back, but losing Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall isn?t such a problem considering those two were averaging a combined 3.8 ypr this season. New starting back Mewelde Moore has a 4.8 ypr career average (although mostly in the advantageous role of 3rd down back) and he is a much better pass catcher, so having Moore get more snaps may help the offense. Pittsburgh will certainly probably throw the ball more and that is a good thing in this game considering how bad the Jaguars? pass defense has been (7.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average team). Overall the Jags have been 0.7 yppl worse than average defensively, which is only slightly better than Pittsburgh?s offensive rating of -0.8 yppl. Where the Steelers have the advantage is their stifling defense (3.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) against a Jaguars? attack that has averaged just 5.0 yppl in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Jacksonville is actually better than that offensively, as their patchwork offensive line struggled in the first two games with 3 new starters. The line has come together in recent games and Jacksonville has been 0.2 yppl better than average offensively over their last two games, which is about what I expect from them going forward. However, my math model favors Pittsburgh by 1 point even if I only use Jacksonville?s better offensive stats from their last two games. The line is too high and I?ll lean slightly with Pittsburgh even though the technical analysis strongly favors Jacksonville.
NEW ORLEANS (-3.0) 27 Minnesota 23
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-06 - Stats Matchup
Drew Brees is playing at an incredible level, as he?s averaged 8.8 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. It may be tough for Brees to maintain that high level of play, but he should post good numbers against a Vikings? defense that is once again very good defending the run (3.1 ypr allowed) but every mediocre against the pass (6.2 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense). Minnesota?s offense has been better since Gus Frerotte was inserted at quarterback in week 3, as the Vikings have averaged 5.0 yards per play the last two games against good defensive teams Carolina and Tennessee, who would combine to allow just 4.6 yppl to an average team. I expect Adrian Peterson to have a big game running against a soft Saints? defensive front that?s allowed 5.4 ypr this season (to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defensive team). New Orleans has been average in pass defense, but Frerotte has been better than average in his two games, throwing for 5.8 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback. My math model favors New Orleans by 6 points and the Saints apply to a very good 61-21-2 ATS Monday night situation. Minnesota, however, applies to a 55-16-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 56-16-5 ATS game 5 angle. Tough call here, but I?ll lean slightly with New Orleans.
