Service Plays Sunday 10/5/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
- Start date
- Apr 7, 2008
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MEL'S NFL PICKS
CHICAGO -3.5 over Detroit
For the first time this season I've seen a line I can't make sense of. Detroit's three games, all losses, have been against a soft schedule and they haven't lost by less than 13 points, and haven't come any closer than 13 of covering the spread. The Lions are off an early bye week which usually doesn't help teams that get off to a bad start. They did play competitive football in their one home game against Green Bay, but blew a fourth quarter lead. Detroit's defense has been a disaster, allowing 5.6 yards per rush and an opponent's QB rating of 118. Amazingly, those three games were all against first year starting QB's. If the Lions are going to routinely have their opponent's QB put up Hall Of Fame numbers they have zero chance. Take Chicago at whatever the going price is. I put an extra unit on this one.
CAROLINA -9.5 over Kansas City
KC had lost 12 games in a row until last week's home win over Denver. They've lost 6 straight road games, and their most recent road loss was 14-38 at Atlanta. Last week Carolina beat that same Atlanta team 24-9. The Chiefs passing game was weak last year, but has dropped to 31st in my numbers this year, and that's been against a soft schedule. Carolina has the best pass defense KC will have faced. The Panthers have played a tough schedule, put up solid passing numbers against four good pass defenses, and should do well against a KC pass defense that has been below average. KC has also been weak against the run, giving up 5.3 per attempt. Carolina has played well in their two home wins and should take this by double digits.
SAN FRANCISCO +3 over New England
New England had feasted on NFC teams, winning 12 straight prior to their Super Bowl loss. This week they make one of their rare West Coast appearances. Although the Pats are 2-1, their numbers don't look like the same team that won all 16 regular season games in '07. The Pats scored 34 points or more 11 times last year. This year they have scored, 17, 19 and 13, in games against, KC, NY Jets and Miami. Diminished offense should be expected with Tom Brady out for the season, but their defensive numbers have fallen off as well. Last year my numbers had them allowing an opponent's QB rating of 62; so far this year it's 92. In fact, the Patriots defensive unit may be showing signs of age. Like New England, SF has faced a below average schedule thus far. Their defense is solid again this year, and their offense has improved under Mike Martz. J.T. O'Sullivan has put up better numbers than Alex Smith ever did. He has taken too many sacks as a result of holding on to the ball too long, but he has made plays. SF has been a weak red zone team over the years, and this year's Niners have yet to show they can finish drives, but I'll take them as a work in progress here. I don't think the Pats will stop Frank Gore, and I don't think Belichick will hatch a scheme that will be effective against O'Sullivan. The fear factor is gone for the Patriots. Last year they scored more than 4 TD's from scrimmage per game; this year only 4 TD's in three games. The 49ers have the home field and the better QB, while NE has the experience. The Niners are averaging 7 points a game more than the Pats, and are the pick here. I'm giving out the play at +3, but this could move to +3.5 closer to game time.
CHICAGO -3.5 over Detroit
For the first time this season I've seen a line I can't make sense of. Detroit's three games, all losses, have been against a soft schedule and they haven't lost by less than 13 points, and haven't come any closer than 13 of covering the spread. The Lions are off an early bye week which usually doesn't help teams that get off to a bad start. They did play competitive football in their one home game against Green Bay, but blew a fourth quarter lead. Detroit's defense has been a disaster, allowing 5.6 yards per rush and an opponent's QB rating of 118. Amazingly, those three games were all against first year starting QB's. If the Lions are going to routinely have their opponent's QB put up Hall Of Fame numbers they have zero chance. Take Chicago at whatever the going price is. I put an extra unit on this one.
CAROLINA -9.5 over Kansas City
KC had lost 12 games in a row until last week's home win over Denver. They've lost 6 straight road games, and their most recent road loss was 14-38 at Atlanta. Last week Carolina beat that same Atlanta team 24-9. The Chiefs passing game was weak last year, but has dropped to 31st in my numbers this year, and that's been against a soft schedule. Carolina has the best pass defense KC will have faced. The Panthers have played a tough schedule, put up solid passing numbers against four good pass defenses, and should do well against a KC pass defense that has been below average. KC has also been weak against the run, giving up 5.3 per attempt. Carolina has played well in their two home wins and should take this by double digits.
SAN FRANCISCO +3 over New England
New England had feasted on NFC teams, winning 12 straight prior to their Super Bowl loss. This week they make one of their rare West Coast appearances. Although the Pats are 2-1, their numbers don't look like the same team that won all 16 regular season games in '07. The Pats scored 34 points or more 11 times last year. This year they have scored, 17, 19 and 13, in games against, KC, NY Jets and Miami. Diminished offense should be expected with Tom Brady out for the season, but their defensive numbers have fallen off as well. Last year my numbers had them allowing an opponent's QB rating of 62; so far this year it's 92. In fact, the Patriots defensive unit may be showing signs of age. Like New England, SF has faced a below average schedule thus far. Their defense is solid again this year, and their offense has improved under Mike Martz. J.T. O'Sullivan has put up better numbers than Alex Smith ever did. He has taken too many sacks as a result of holding on to the ball too long, but he has made plays. SF has been a weak red zone team over the years, and this year's Niners have yet to show they can finish drives, but I'll take them as a work in progress here. I don't think the Pats will stop Frank Gore, and I don't think Belichick will hatch a scheme that will be effective against O'Sullivan. The fear factor is gone for the Patriots. Last year they scored more than 4 TD's from scrimmage per game; this year only 4 TD's in three games. The 49ers have the home field and the better QB, while NE has the experience. The Niners are averaging 7 points a game more than the Pats, and are the pick here. I'm giving out the play at +3, but this could move to +3.5 closer to game time.
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
NFL
5* BEST BET
New England over San Fran by 15
Roll the clock back to the first week of the season and our best guess is
the line on this game would have seen the Patriots installed as doubledigit
favorites. Today, with Tom Brady on the sidelines and the Niners a
.500 squad, two touchdowns has become a fi eld goal and suddenly this
game becomes attractive. With that we hurry off to our Bill Belichick
databank and fi nd numbers that support our contention. For openers,
Mr. Personality is 22-9 ATS in his NFL head coaching career on the road in
games off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine and 7-0 ATS as a
favorite of less than 7 points. To top it off he?s squared off against teams
from the NFC West Division 13 times and ? you guessed it ? he?s 13-0 ATS
in those games. Toss in Frisco?s 1-10 ATS mark as a dog off a non-division
game when facing an AFC opponent and you can see why we?re taking a
patriotic approach to this game.
4* BEST BET
Philadelphia over Washington by 16
Life has been pretty much black and white at home (2-0 SU and ATS) and
on the road (0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS) for the Eagles in 2008. More important,
from a handicapping perspective, the Green Birds have been perfect, 4-
0, In The Stats this season. They will apply that notion against a fat-andhappy
bunch of Hogs, fresh off last Sunday?s underdog win as doubledigit
dogs at Dallas. That fi ts like a Michael Jackson glove given the fact
the Skins are 0-5-1 ATS on the road off a Cowboy win while Philly is
10-3-1 ATS in division games off an ATS loss of 7 or more points behind
Andy Reid. Andy is also dandy in games off a SU favorite loss, going 17-8
SU and ATS. Just like Los Lobos, he sees a red door and wants to paint
it black
3* BEST BET
Detroit over Chicago by 7
It?s been said that the best sex a man can have is right after his favorite
football team wins a game. If that?s the case then the Motor City?s been
celibate this season. With Matt Millen no longer guarding the condoms
this may actually be a breakout game for the Lions. It happens much
more often than not to winless teams after a Bye Week. The fact of the
matter is 0-3 or worse division dogs playing with an extra wink are 7-7 SU
and 11-1-1 ATS. Additionally, the Lions are 7-5 SU and 12-0 ATS as division
home dogs against an opponent that allowed 20 or more points in its last
contest. With Lovie Smith 1-8-1 ATS in games off a win against a foe off
back-to-back losses, it?s time to break out the Trojans. The Lions and the
men from Motown are looking to make a score today!
NFL
5* BEST BET
New England over San Fran by 15
Roll the clock back to the first week of the season and our best guess is
the line on this game would have seen the Patriots installed as doubledigit
favorites. Today, with Tom Brady on the sidelines and the Niners a
.500 squad, two touchdowns has become a fi eld goal and suddenly this
game becomes attractive. With that we hurry off to our Bill Belichick
databank and fi nd numbers that support our contention. For openers,
Mr. Personality is 22-9 ATS in his NFL head coaching career on the road in
games off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine and 7-0 ATS as a
favorite of less than 7 points. To top it off he?s squared off against teams
from the NFC West Division 13 times and ? you guessed it ? he?s 13-0 ATS
in those games. Toss in Frisco?s 1-10 ATS mark as a dog off a non-division
game when facing an AFC opponent and you can see why we?re taking a
patriotic approach to this game.
4* BEST BET
Philadelphia over Washington by 16
Life has been pretty much black and white at home (2-0 SU and ATS) and
on the road (0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS) for the Eagles in 2008. More important,
from a handicapping perspective, the Green Birds have been perfect, 4-
0, In The Stats this season. They will apply that notion against a fat-andhappy
bunch of Hogs, fresh off last Sunday?s underdog win as doubledigit
dogs at Dallas. That fi ts like a Michael Jackson glove given the fact
the Skins are 0-5-1 ATS on the road off a Cowboy win while Philly is
10-3-1 ATS in division games off an ATS loss of 7 or more points behind
Andy Reid. Andy is also dandy in games off a SU favorite loss, going 17-8
SU and ATS. Just like Los Lobos, he sees a red door and wants to paint
it black
3* BEST BET
Detroit over Chicago by 7
It?s been said that the best sex a man can have is right after his favorite
football team wins a game. If that?s the case then the Motor City?s been
celibate this season. With Matt Millen no longer guarding the condoms
this may actually be a breakout game for the Lions. It happens much
more often than not to winless teams after a Bye Week. The fact of the
matter is 0-3 or worse division dogs playing with an extra wink are 7-7 SU
and 11-1-1 ATS. Additionally, the Lions are 7-5 SU and 12-0 ATS as division
home dogs against an opponent that allowed 20 or more points in its last
contest. With Lovie Smith 1-8-1 ATS in games off a win against a foe off
back-to-back losses, it?s time to break out the Trojans. The Lions and the
men from Motown are looking to make a score today!
thanks alot mr.pickem
thanks alot mr.pickem
really appreciate indian cowboys selections, thanks again, and gl
thanks alot mr.pickem
really appreciate indian cowboys selections, thanks again, and gl
- Apr 7, 2008
- 4,291
- 0
- 36
STAT FOX / THE PLATINUM SHEET - NFL
10/5/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO at (410) MIAMI
San Diego was sleep walking for three quarters of Sunday?s game
versus Oakland but still managed to turn it on enough to cover a twoscore
pointspread. This team has the type of talent to ?flip the switch?.
Hopefully this time around it won?t be a matter of waiting till the point
of urgency, since there?s no reason they shouldn?t walk away with a
comfortable win at Miami, especially since they were finally able to
get their primary weapons, Tomlinson and Gates, going on offense
late in Oakland. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers have been a team
that has been tough to stop once they get started: Turner is 8-1 ATS
(+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 26.2, OPPONENT 16.3
- (Rating = 1*). They are also a healthy 15-3 ATS in their L18 AFC
games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are off their bye week and could
be still hung over from the upset of New
England. This game could be a painful
wake up call.
Play: San Diego -6.5
10/5/2008 (413) WASHINGTON at (414)
PHILADELPHIA
As strange as it sounds, Washington
will have wrapped up its road divisional
schedule for 2008 after this game. It is their
second straight contest on the road versus
a NFC East foe, following up the upset
of Dallas last Sunday. It figures to be too
much to ask for them to pull off yet another
stunner here against a Philadelphia team
that is too good on both sides of the ball
to slip to 2-3. In fact, the Eagles could
find themselves in trouble as far as the
playoffs are concerned if they were to
lose here. I just don?t see that happening.
They have been dominant defensively so
far, especially at home, where they have
yielded just 9 points and 346 yards in two
games. Meanwhile, Washington?s offense
has turned it around in its last three games
after the ugly start at New York. However, those offensive breakout
performances were against teams far less capable defensively than
Philly. With RB Brian Westbrook toughing it out this week, look for HC
Andy Reid?s team to bounce back with a convincing win.
Play: Philadelphia -4.5
10/5/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY at (422) DENVER
Prior to Denver?s loss at Kansas City, what do you suppose the line
in this game would have been? My guess is it would have been
something similar or higher than that of the Broncos-Saints game
two weeks ago, or about -5. Let?s face it, the Broncos put on a poor
performance at K.C. but that was a divisional road game with a
double-digit pointspread. There aren?t too many times where NFL
teams cover as chalk in that scenario. It?s simply a difficult situation.
Now, hosting an unfamiliar non-conference foe who hasn?t played in
your stadium since ?99, now that?s a different story. Tampa?s defense
has been bad in five straight road games dating back to last year.
Denver should enjoy another big day offensively. The Broncos are
also due for some luck in the turnover category: Play On - Favorites
vs. the money line (DENVER) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing
1 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they
forced 1 or less turnovers. (26-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.9%,
+23 units. Rating = 3*). This seems to be too much of an overreaction
to last week?s results. Take Denver.
Play: Denver -3
10/5/2008 (425) BUFFALO at (426) ARIZONA
Just as I believe that Denver was in a tough spot last week, so was
Arizona, having to play two straight games
across the country on the east coast.
Fatigue was certainly a factor for HC
Ken Whisenhunt?s team, especially on
defense. Fortunately, the Cardinals are
back at home this Sunday, where they are
7-2 under ?the Whis?. They?ve also fared
well against the AFC in is tenure, going 5-1
ATS. Buffalo has put together a 4-0 start
but has yet to beat anyone who is sure to
be a playoff team in ?08. This is probably
the Bills? toughest task to date, since
ARIZONA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when
playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.
> 75%) since 1992. Backed by this nice
******* Money Line Super Situation, take
the hosts: Play On - Home favorites vs. the
money line (ARIZONA) - good offensive
team - scoring 24 or more points/game,
after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more
last game. (30-2 over the last 10 seasons.)
(93.8%, +26.8 units. Rating = 4*)
Play: Arizona -2
10/6/2008 (431) MINNESOTA at (432) NEW ORLEANS
Although the results haven?t shown in the point totals that the Vikings
have given up in the first four games, Minnesota is still a very tough
team defensively. In this Monday night game at New Orleans, HC
Brad Childress? team will enjoy a tremendous statistical edge on
defense. The most convincing numbers to look at are in yards per play
allowed. So far in four games, the Vikings are yielding just 4.9 YPP,
while the Saints have been gashed for 6.2 YPP. For those betting
Minnesota here, you also get the benefit of being a 3-point underdog,
possibly more with a hook if you can score it. The Vikings have faced
a killer schedule thus far and are probably better than the 1-3 record
indicates. Look for them to lean on Adrian Peterson extensively in this
game, giving them a great shot at the road upset.
Play: Minnesota +3
TOP NFL ******* SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (405) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (406) HOUSTON
Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by
40+ YPG, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. (34-7 since 1983.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating=4*).
The situation?s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (7-0). L10 Seasons: (15-2).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Play Over - Home teams against the total (ARIZONA) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an
average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. (31-7 over the last 10
seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*).
The situation?s record this season is: (1-0). L3 Seasons: (10-2). L5 Seasons: (17-3). Since 1983: (61-44).
MULTIPLE TEAMS
Play On - Favorites (DALLAS, DENVER) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. (41-14 over
the last 10 seasons.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating=3*).
The situation?s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (5-1). L5 Seasons: (21-7). Since 1983: (78-45).
TOP NFL ******* POWER TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The
average score was DENVER 21.1, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 5*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The average score
was DENVER 22.6, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 5*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
Norv Turner is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was Turner 27.1, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (423) NEW ENGLAND vs. (424) SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ENGLAND
37.1, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was
JACKSONVILLE 30.7, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
Rod Marinelli is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of DETROIT. The
average score was Marinelli 18, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
Mike Shanahan is 98-66 OVER (+25.4 Units) as a favorite as the coach of DENVER. The average score was Shanahan
26, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 2*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (419) SEATTLE vs. (420) NY GIANTS
Mike Holmgren is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) in October games as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren
20.1, OPPONENT 24 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Dick Jauron is 37-16 UNDER (+19.4 Units) off 1 or more straight overs in all games he has coached since 1992. The
average score was Jauron 15.4, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 2*).
TOP NFL ******* HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
The UNDERDOG is 10-8 SU & 14-3 ATS in L19 games of CHICAGO-DETROIT series.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (407) TENNESSEE vs. (408) BALTIMORE
The UNDERDOG is 8-6 SU & 12-2 ATS in TENNESSEE-BALTIMORE series since ?97.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
The HOME TEAM is 15-5 ATS in PITTSBURGH-JACKSONVILLE series since ?95.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (413) WASHINGTON vs. (414) PHILADELPHIA
The UNDER is 20-11 in the PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON series since 1992.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
The UNDER is 7-0 in the L7 games between MIAMI & SAN DIEGO
10/5/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO at (410) MIAMI
San Diego was sleep walking for three quarters of Sunday?s game
versus Oakland but still managed to turn it on enough to cover a twoscore
pointspread. This team has the type of talent to ?flip the switch?.
Hopefully this time around it won?t be a matter of waiting till the point
of urgency, since there?s no reason they shouldn?t walk away with a
comfortable win at Miami, especially since they were finally able to
get their primary weapons, Tomlinson and Gates, going on offense
late in Oakland. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers have been a team
that has been tough to stop once they get started: Turner is 8-1 ATS
(+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was SAN DIEGO 26.2, OPPONENT 16.3
- (Rating = 1*). They are also a healthy 15-3 ATS in their L18 AFC
games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are off their bye week and could
be still hung over from the upset of New
England. This game could be a painful
wake up call.
Play: San Diego -6.5
10/5/2008 (413) WASHINGTON at (414)
PHILADELPHIA
As strange as it sounds, Washington
will have wrapped up its road divisional
schedule for 2008 after this game. It is their
second straight contest on the road versus
a NFC East foe, following up the upset
of Dallas last Sunday. It figures to be too
much to ask for them to pull off yet another
stunner here against a Philadelphia team
that is too good on both sides of the ball
to slip to 2-3. In fact, the Eagles could
find themselves in trouble as far as the
playoffs are concerned if they were to
lose here. I just don?t see that happening.
They have been dominant defensively so
far, especially at home, where they have
yielded just 9 points and 346 yards in two
games. Meanwhile, Washington?s offense
has turned it around in its last three games
after the ugly start at New York. However, those offensive breakout
performances were against teams far less capable defensively than
Philly. With RB Brian Westbrook toughing it out this week, look for HC
Andy Reid?s team to bounce back with a convincing win.
Play: Philadelphia -4.5
10/5/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY at (422) DENVER
Prior to Denver?s loss at Kansas City, what do you suppose the line
in this game would have been? My guess is it would have been
something similar or higher than that of the Broncos-Saints game
two weeks ago, or about -5. Let?s face it, the Broncos put on a poor
performance at K.C. but that was a divisional road game with a
double-digit pointspread. There aren?t too many times where NFL
teams cover as chalk in that scenario. It?s simply a difficult situation.
Now, hosting an unfamiliar non-conference foe who hasn?t played in
your stadium since ?99, now that?s a different story. Tampa?s defense
has been bad in five straight road games dating back to last year.
Denver should enjoy another big day offensively. The Broncos are
also due for some luck in the turnover category: Play On - Favorites
vs. the money line (DENVER) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing
1 or less turnovers/game, after 4 consecutive games where they
forced 1 or less turnovers. (26-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.9%,
+23 units. Rating = 3*). This seems to be too much of an overreaction
to last week?s results. Take Denver.
Play: Denver -3
10/5/2008 (425) BUFFALO at (426) ARIZONA
Just as I believe that Denver was in a tough spot last week, so was
Arizona, having to play two straight games
across the country on the east coast.
Fatigue was certainly a factor for HC
Ken Whisenhunt?s team, especially on
defense. Fortunately, the Cardinals are
back at home this Sunday, where they are
7-2 under ?the Whis?. They?ve also fared
well against the AFC in is tenure, going 5-1
ATS. Buffalo has put together a 4-0 start
but has yet to beat anyone who is sure to
be a playoff team in ?08. This is probably
the Bills? toughest task to date, since
ARIZONA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when
playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.
> 75%) since 1992. Backed by this nice
******* Money Line Super Situation, take
the hosts: Play On - Home favorites vs. the
money line (ARIZONA) - good offensive
team - scoring 24 or more points/game,
after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more
last game. (30-2 over the last 10 seasons.)
(93.8%, +26.8 units. Rating = 4*)
Play: Arizona -2
10/6/2008 (431) MINNESOTA at (432) NEW ORLEANS
Although the results haven?t shown in the point totals that the Vikings
have given up in the first four games, Minnesota is still a very tough
team defensively. In this Monday night game at New Orleans, HC
Brad Childress? team will enjoy a tremendous statistical edge on
defense. The most convincing numbers to look at are in yards per play
allowed. So far in four games, the Vikings are yielding just 4.9 YPP,
while the Saints have been gashed for 6.2 YPP. For those betting
Minnesota here, you also get the benefit of being a 3-point underdog,
possibly more with a hook if you can score it. The Vikings have faced
a killer schedule thus far and are probably better than the 1-3 record
indicates. Look for them to lean on Adrian Peterson extensively in this
game, giving them a great shot at the road upset.
Play: Minnesota +3
TOP NFL ******* SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (405) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (406) HOUSTON
Play Against - Favorites (INDIANAPOLIS) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by
40+ YPG, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. (34-7 since 1983.) (82.9%, +26.3 units. Rating=4*).
The situation?s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (7-0). L10 Seasons: (15-2).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Play Over - Home teams against the total (ARIZONA) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an
average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. (31-7 over the last 10
seasons.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*).
The situation?s record this season is: (1-0). L3 Seasons: (10-2). L5 Seasons: (17-3). Since 1983: (61-44).
MULTIPLE TEAMS
Play On - Favorites (DALLAS, DENVER) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. (41-14 over
the last 10 seasons.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating=3*).
The situation?s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (5-1). L5 Seasons: (21-7). Since 1983: (78-45).
TOP NFL ******* POWER TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The
average score was DENVER 21.1, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 5*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
DENVER is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The average score
was DENVER 22.6, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 5*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
Norv Turner is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. as the coach of SAN
DIEGO. The average score was Turner 27.1, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (423) NEW ENGLAND vs. (424) SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW ENGLAND
37.1, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. The average score was
JACKSONVILLE 30.7, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
Rod Marinelli is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of DETROIT. The
average score was Marinelli 18, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 3*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (421) TAMPA BAY vs. (422) DENVER
Mike Shanahan is 98-66 OVER (+25.4 Units) as a favorite as the coach of DENVER. The average score was Shanahan
26, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 2*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (419) SEATTLE vs. (420) NY GIANTS
Mike Holmgren is 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) in October games as the coach of SEATTLE. The average score was Holmgren
20.1, OPPONENT 24 - (Rating = 4*).
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (425) BUFFALO vs. (426) ARIZONA
Dick Jauron is 37-16 UNDER (+19.4 Units) off 1 or more straight overs in all games he has coached since 1992. The
average score was Jauron 15.4, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 2*).
TOP NFL ******* HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 5 (ATS & Total)
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (415) CHICAGO vs. (416) DETROIT
The UNDERDOG is 10-8 SU & 14-3 ATS in L19 games of CHICAGO-DETROIT series.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (407) TENNESSEE vs. (408) BALTIMORE
The UNDERDOG is 8-6 SU & 12-2 ATS in TENNESSEE-BALTIMORE series since ?97.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (429) PITTSBURGH vs. (430) JACKSONVILLE
The HOME TEAM is 15-5 ATS in PITTSBURGH-JACKSONVILLE series since ?95.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (413) WASHINGTON vs. (414) PHILADELPHIA
The UNDER is 20-11 in the PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON series since 1992.
Sunday, 10/05/2008 (409) SAN DIEGO vs. (410) MIAMI
The UNDER is 7-0 in the L7 games between MIAMI & SAN DIEGO
- Apr 7, 2008
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NFL
THE GOLD SHEET - NFL
KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND by 14 over San Francisco
ARIZONA by 17 over Buffalo
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay-Denver game
OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 34 - Tampa Bay 26?Denver?s Achilles?
Heel apparently the same as LY, as Larry Johnson (198 YR last week) the latest
to puncture soft Broncos rush defense. Not sure T.B.?s chop-busting Earnest
Graham can?t do similar damage. But Bucs living very dangerously these days,
with Brian Griese (back at one of his old haunts) still prone to sloppy efforts (his
3 picks nearly undid T.B.?s dominance vs. banged-up Packers last week). Jay
Cutler & Co. (34 ppg last 5 at home) tough to outscore at Invesco Field, and
doubt Denver self-destructs with the TOs (4 of ?em) that undermined attack at
Arrowhead. ?Totals? alert?Broncos ?over? 13 of last 15 at home, and 20 of last
25 overall since late ?06; T.B. ?over? 8-2 last 10.
(04-Denver -3 16-13...SR: Denver 4-2)
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13?Bill Belichick?s defense led
the way in Super Bowl XXXVI at New Orleans as N.E. defeated Mike Martz?
Rams and their high-powered offense 20-17 on a last-second FG. Now,
Belichick?s defenders are under the microscope after giving up TD drives of 74,
79, 77, 79 and 62 yards vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago! Insiders report extrahard-
hitting, back-to-basics defensive practices in Foxborough since then,
while Tom Brady has reported early in the A.M. to help Matt Cassel with film
study after coaches tailored play book more to his liking. Pats just 2-12 vs. the
spread their last 14 overall, but J.T. O?Sullivan sacked six times in N.O. More
of the same this week.
(04-NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-7...SR: San Francisco 7-3)
ARIZONA 30 - Buffalo 13?After spending two the last two weeks on
the east coast, yielding a total of 8 TOs and 8 TDP, Arizona gets to turn the
tables on undefeated AFC East rep Buffalo. But even if hard-nosed WR
Anquan Boldin sidelined (check status), will come back with Cardinals now on
home turf for only the second time TY. Rookie power back Tim Hightower (via
Richmond) helping Edgerrin James in backfield, and QB Kurt Warner?s arm is
well-oiled, as evidenced by his 472 YP in six-giveaway performance by Arizona
last week. (04-BUFFALO -3' 38-14...SR: Buffalo 5-3)
Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 23?First home game for 0-3 Houston, thanks
to Hurricane Ike, which not only damaged the roof of Reliant Stadium, but also
the homes of several Texan players. Indy?s divisional home loss two weeks ago
vs. Jacksonville makes us lean to Colts for the victory, even with Indy?s depleted
defense (especially without SS Bob Sanders). Houston will be a hard-fighting,
homesick host. But Texans finding ways to lose, and New Orleans?albeit in a
more severe situation?never could shake the Katrina distractions in 2005.
Houston 16-7-1 ?over? last 24.
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(07-Indianapolis -6' 30-24, INDIANAPOLIS -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 11-1)
BALTIMORE 16 - Tennessee 15?Kerry Collins still has occasional
nightmares about the Baltimore defense, which intercepted him four times
when Collins was with the Giants for a 34-7 Raven victory in Super Bowl XXXV.
Collins might have a touch of d?j? vu, as Baltimore?s zone blitzers collected 7
sacks and 5 takeaways in allowing only 20 total points vs. Cincy & Cleveland in
Ravens? first two home games. With 4-0 Tennessee lacking premier WRs,
Baltimore?s zone blitzers will be after Collins if they are able to keep RBs C. Johnson
& L. White under control. Will Flacco remain unflappable vs. Titan defense (8
ints.)? Balt. FB Le?Ron McClain a revelation with 152 YR first two games.
(06-Baltimore -7 27-26...SR: Baltimore 9-8)
San Diego 23 - MIAMI 20?You can be sure Miami will add a few wrinkles to
its ?Wildcat? formation after six plays at New England produced four TDs in the
Dolphins? 38-13 upset (Miami QB coach David Lee was o.c. LY at Arkansas).
Fortunately for S.D., starting LB Stephen Cooper (Chargers? top tackler LY)
returns to action this week. However, QB Philip Rivers (sacked four times by
Raiders last week) absorbing more punishment than LY. Chad Pennington
(64%) a steadying influence on Dolphin offense.
(05-Miami +13 23-21...SR: Miami 13-12)
CAROLINA 27 - Kansas City 10?Herm Edwards is still rather limited in his
offensive options, as K.C.?s best alternative is to bang away with Larry Johnson
and hope for error-free work from vet QB Damon Huard (which Huard provided
vs. Denver...and which Tyler Thigpen could not). But doubt L.J. can puncture
the stout Carolina defensive interior as he did the less-assertive Broncos with
198 YR. It?s looking like the 2003 Super Bowl year in Charlotte, with old WR
buddies Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith reunited (14 combined recs., 2 TDs
last week), providing familiar targets for re-energized Jake Delhomme.
(04-Carolina +6' 28-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Washington 13?Jim Zorn having fine success tutoring
potential-laden young QB Jason Campbell (66%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) and inspiring
hard-driving runs by Clinton Portis (369 YR). But coping with the Philly pass
rush (17 sacks TY) can be tough (just ask Ben Roethliesberger). Status of Brian
Westbrook (knee) unclear, but Correll Buckhalter a serviceable sub, and rookie
WR DeSean Jackson has enlivened Eagle aerial game.
(07-Was. 20-PHIL. 12...W.19-18 W.33/130 P.20/114 P.28/46/0/226 W.16/29/1/207 W.0 P.0)
(07-Phil. 33-WAS. 25...W.25-22 W.36/158 P.28/139 P.20/28/0/240 W.23/34/0/203 P.2 W.2)
(07-Washington +6' 20-12, Philadelphia +2' 33-25...SR: Washington 76-65-5)
DETROIT 23 - Chicago 20?Oh, Happy Day! That?s the tune Lions? fans
were singing last week when lucratively-paid GM Matt Millen was fired after
Detroit was 31-84 during his tenure. The question is whether such a move will
be a positive on the field for an 0-3 team that has been outgained by more than
100 yards in each game, out-rushed 623-227 overall, out-sacked 12-3, and
outscored 63-20 in the first half. Lions could hardly be worse. However, this is
the NFL, and let?s remember Detroit swept the Bears LY, has potent weapons
at WR, and is virtually in a must-win situation to join the NFC North race.
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 87-64-5)
GREEN BAY 17 - Atlanta 16?Things keep repeating for Atlanta, which has
beaten two troubled teams (Detroit & Kansas City) in similar fashion and lost by
exact 24-9 scores at both Tampa Bay & Carolina. Catching angry Green Bay at
Lambeau after The Pack dropped a pair would appear to put this contest more
in the Bucs-Panthers category for Falcs. But not so fast, as G.B. might have to
go with rookies Matt Flynn and/or Jeff Brohm at QB if Aaron Rodgers? shoulder
injury is serious. If that?s the case, Atlanta can hang around, especially with HC
Mike Smith having rookie Matt Ryan throw mostly short and safe while Michael
Turner (422 YR) keeps the clock and chains moving.
(05-Green Bay +9 33-25...SR: Green Bay 13-11)
NY GIANTS 33 - Seattle 17?Bye week came at a nice time for Seattle, which
is getting a bit healthier on offense and fortified depleted WR crew with recent
additions of vets Keary Colbert & Koren Robinson. But Seahawks likely to catch
a focused N.Y. team after uncharacteristic flat effort that nearly cost G-Men in
last outing vs. Cincy, not to mention N.Y.?s chance to stay ahead of Dallas in
ultra-tough NFC East. D.c. Steve Spagnuolo?s sack-happy Giant defense has
a rather stationary target in Matt Hasselbeck. N.Y. has covered 10 of last 12
overall. Totals note?Both teams trending ?over? lately (Giants ?over? 7-3 at
Meadowlands; Seattle ?over? 20-7-1 last 28 as visitor).
(06-SEATTLE -3' 42-30...SR: NY Giants 7-5)
DALLAS 30 - Cincinnati 13?Carson Palmer?s elbow expected to be okay.
Even so, it?s hard to count on the poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only
13 ppg vs. the improved Cowboy defense. Dallas underestimated Washington
last week. But another T.O. tirade is indicative that a similar occurrence unlikely
this week. Huge rush edge owned by RBs MB III and Felix Jones should make
play-action easy for Tony Romo and get winless Bengals to playing from behind
early. (04-CINCINNATI +1 26-3...SR: Dallas 5-4)
*JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 13?Jags have won last four meetings,
including LY?s controversial playoff victory in Pittsburgh. And, while
Jacksonville has plugged the early holes in its OL, the Jags now catch the
Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a sore shoulder, RB Willie Parker on
the shelf, and two starters out on Pittsburgh DL. Moreover, the Steeler OL was
overwhelmed in its last road game, giving up nine sacks in a 15-6 loss at Philly.
The healthier, more nimble David Garrard (7 for 41 rushing last week) could be
the difference. TV?NBC
(07-Jack. 29-PITT 22...J.25-13 J.42/225 P.17/111 J.17/33/1/197 P.16/33/0/106 J.0 P.0)
(07-Jack. 31-PITT 29...P.24-14 J.29/135 P.26/43 P.29/42/3/297 J.9/21/2/104 J.0 P.1)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 29-22, Jacksonville -2' 31-29 (Playoffs)...SR: Jacksonville 12-8)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24?CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense
recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce
McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4
ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his
left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson
(420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise.
Minny used to dome conditions. Saints ?over? 17 of last 23. CABLE TV?ESPN
(05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)
THE GOLD SHEET - NFL
KEY RELEASES
NEW ENGLAND by 14 over San Francisco
ARIZONA by 17 over Buffalo
OVER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay-Denver game
OVER THE TOTAL DENVER 34 - Tampa Bay 26?Denver?s Achilles?
Heel apparently the same as LY, as Larry Johnson (198 YR last week) the latest
to puncture soft Broncos rush defense. Not sure T.B.?s chop-busting Earnest
Graham can?t do similar damage. But Bucs living very dangerously these days,
with Brian Griese (back at one of his old haunts) still prone to sloppy efforts (his
3 picks nearly undid T.B.?s dominance vs. banged-up Packers last week). Jay
Cutler & Co. (34 ppg last 5 at home) tough to outscore at Invesco Field, and
doubt Denver self-destructs with the TOs (4 of ?em) that undermined attack at
Arrowhead. ?Totals? alert?Broncos ?over? 13 of last 15 at home, and 20 of last
25 overall since late ?06; T.B. ?over? 8-2 last 10.
(04-Denver -3 16-13...SR: Denver 4-2)
New England 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13?Bill Belichick?s defense led
the way in Super Bowl XXXVI at New Orleans as N.E. defeated Mike Martz?
Rams and their high-powered offense 20-17 on a last-second FG. Now,
Belichick?s defenders are under the microscope after giving up TD drives of 74,
79, 77, 79 and 62 yards vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago! Insiders report extrahard-
hitting, back-to-basics defensive practices in Foxborough since then,
while Tom Brady has reported early in the A.M. to help Matt Cassel with film
study after coaches tailored play book more to his liking. Pats just 2-12 vs. the
spread their last 14 overall, but J.T. O?Sullivan sacked six times in N.O. More
of the same this week.
(04-NEW ENGLAND -13' 21-7...SR: San Francisco 7-3)
ARIZONA 30 - Buffalo 13?After spending two the last two weeks on
the east coast, yielding a total of 8 TOs and 8 TDP, Arizona gets to turn the
tables on undefeated AFC East rep Buffalo. But even if hard-nosed WR
Anquan Boldin sidelined (check status), will come back with Cardinals now on
home turf for only the second time TY. Rookie power back Tim Hightower (via
Richmond) helping Edgerrin James in backfield, and QB Kurt Warner?s arm is
well-oiled, as evidenced by his 472 YP in six-giveaway performance by Arizona
last week. (04-BUFFALO -3' 38-14...SR: Buffalo 5-3)
Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 23?First home game for 0-3 Houston, thanks
to Hurricane Ike, which not only damaged the roof of Reliant Stadium, but also
the homes of several Texan players. Indy?s divisional home loss two weeks ago
vs. Jacksonville makes us lean to Colts for the victory, even with Indy?s depleted
defense (especially without SS Bob Sanders). Houston will be a hard-fighting,
homesick host. But Texans finding ways to lose, and New Orleans?albeit in a
more severe situation?never could shake the Katrina distractions in 2005.
Houston 16-7-1 ?over? last 24.
(07-Indy 30-HOU. 24...I.18-16 I.29/92 H.17/40 I.20/29/0/270 H.27/33/2/214 I.0 H.0)
(07-INDY 38-Hou. 15...I.33-18 I.31/120 H.19/66 I.31/40/0/338 H.22/36/3/233 I.1 H.0)
(07-Indianapolis -6' 30-24, INDIANAPOLIS -7 38-15...SR: Indianapolis 11-1)
BALTIMORE 16 - Tennessee 15?Kerry Collins still has occasional
nightmares about the Baltimore defense, which intercepted him four times
when Collins was with the Giants for a 34-7 Raven victory in Super Bowl XXXV.
Collins might have a touch of d?j? vu, as Baltimore?s zone blitzers collected 7
sacks and 5 takeaways in allowing only 20 total points vs. Cincy & Cleveland in
Ravens? first two home games. With 4-0 Tennessee lacking premier WRs,
Baltimore?s zone blitzers will be after Collins if they are able to keep RBs C. Johnson
& L. White under control. Will Flacco remain unflappable vs. Titan defense (8
ints.)? Balt. FB Le?Ron McClain a revelation with 152 YR first two games.
(06-Baltimore -7 27-26...SR: Baltimore 9-8)
San Diego 23 - MIAMI 20?You can be sure Miami will add a few wrinkles to
its ?Wildcat? formation after six plays at New England produced four TDs in the
Dolphins? 38-13 upset (Miami QB coach David Lee was o.c. LY at Arkansas).
Fortunately for S.D., starting LB Stephen Cooper (Chargers? top tackler LY)
returns to action this week. However, QB Philip Rivers (sacked four times by
Raiders last week) absorbing more punishment than LY. Chad Pennington
(64%) a steadying influence on Dolphin offense.
(05-Miami +13 23-21...SR: Miami 13-12)
CAROLINA 27 - Kansas City 10?Herm Edwards is still rather limited in his
offensive options, as K.C.?s best alternative is to bang away with Larry Johnson
and hope for error-free work from vet QB Damon Huard (which Huard provided
vs. Denver...and which Tyler Thigpen could not). But doubt L.J. can puncture
the stout Carolina defensive interior as he did the less-assertive Broncos with
198 YR. It?s looking like the 2003 Super Bowl year in Charlotte, with old WR
buddies Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith reunited (14 combined recs., 2 TDs
last week), providing familiar targets for re-energized Jake Delhomme.
(04-Carolina +6' 28-17...SR: Kansas City 2-1)
PHILADELPHIA 23 - Washington 13?Jim Zorn having fine success tutoring
potential-laden young QB Jason Campbell (66%, 6 TDs, 0 ints.) and inspiring
hard-driving runs by Clinton Portis (369 YR). But coping with the Philly pass
rush (17 sacks TY) can be tough (just ask Ben Roethliesberger). Status of Brian
Westbrook (knee) unclear, but Correll Buckhalter a serviceable sub, and rookie
WR DeSean Jackson has enlivened Eagle aerial game.
(07-Was. 20-PHIL. 12...W.19-18 W.33/130 P.20/114 P.28/46/0/226 W.16/29/1/207 W.0 P.0)
(07-Phil. 33-WAS. 25...W.25-22 W.36/158 P.28/139 P.20/28/0/240 W.23/34/0/203 P.2 W.2)
(07-Washington +6' 20-12, Philadelphia +2' 33-25...SR: Washington 76-65-5)
DETROIT 23 - Chicago 20?Oh, Happy Day! That?s the tune Lions? fans
were singing last week when lucratively-paid GM Matt Millen was fired after
Detroit was 31-84 during his tenure. The question is whether such a move will
be a positive on the field for an 0-3 team that has been outgained by more than
100 yards in each game, out-rushed 623-227 overall, out-sacked 12-3, and
outscored 63-20 in the first half. Lions could hardly be worse. However, this is
the NFL, and let?s remember Detroit swept the Bears LY, has potent weapons
at WR, and is virtually in a must-win situation to join the NFC North race.
(07-DET. 37-Chi. 27...C.22-19 D.25/95 C.22/69 C.34/52/3/234 D.20/24/0/215 D.2 C.0)
(07-Det. 16-CHI. 7...D.22-16 D.28/119 C.20/63 D.24/35/0/246 C.22/40/4/192 D.1 C.0)
(07-DETROIT +2' 37-27, Detroit +5 16-7...SR: Chicago 87-64-5)
GREEN BAY 17 - Atlanta 16?Things keep repeating for Atlanta, which has
beaten two troubled teams (Detroit & Kansas City) in similar fashion and lost by
exact 24-9 scores at both Tampa Bay & Carolina. Catching angry Green Bay at
Lambeau after The Pack dropped a pair would appear to put this contest more
in the Bucs-Panthers category for Falcs. But not so fast, as G.B. might have to
go with rookies Matt Flynn and/or Jeff Brohm at QB if Aaron Rodgers? shoulder
injury is serious. If that?s the case, Atlanta can hang around, especially with HC
Mike Smith having rookie Matt Ryan throw mostly short and safe while Michael
Turner (422 YR) keeps the clock and chains moving.
(05-Green Bay +9 33-25...SR: Green Bay 13-11)
NY GIANTS 33 - Seattle 17?Bye week came at a nice time for Seattle, which
is getting a bit healthier on offense and fortified depleted WR crew with recent
additions of vets Keary Colbert & Koren Robinson. But Seahawks likely to catch
a focused N.Y. team after uncharacteristic flat effort that nearly cost G-Men in
last outing vs. Cincy, not to mention N.Y.?s chance to stay ahead of Dallas in
ultra-tough NFC East. D.c. Steve Spagnuolo?s sack-happy Giant defense has
a rather stationary target in Matt Hasselbeck. N.Y. has covered 10 of last 12
overall. Totals note?Both teams trending ?over? lately (Giants ?over? 7-3 at
Meadowlands; Seattle ?over? 20-7-1 last 28 as visitor).
(06-SEATTLE -3' 42-30...SR: NY Giants 7-5)
DALLAS 30 - Cincinnati 13?Carson Palmer?s elbow expected to be okay.
Even so, it?s hard to count on the poorly-balanced Cincy offense producing only
13 ppg vs. the improved Cowboy defense. Dallas underestimated Washington
last week. But another T.O. tirade is indicative that a similar occurrence unlikely
this week. Huge rush edge owned by RBs MB III and Felix Jones should make
play-action easy for Tony Romo and get winless Bengals to playing from behind
early. (04-CINCINNATI +1 26-3...SR: Dallas 5-4)
*JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 13?Jags have won last four meetings,
including LY?s controversial playoff victory in Pittsburgh. And, while
Jacksonville has plugged the early holes in its OL, the Jags now catch the
Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a sore shoulder, RB Willie Parker on
the shelf, and two starters out on Pittsburgh DL. Moreover, the Steeler OL was
overwhelmed in its last road game, giving up nine sacks in a 15-6 loss at Philly.
The healthier, more nimble David Garrard (7 for 41 rushing last week) could be
the difference. TV?NBC
(07-Jack. 29-PITT 22...J.25-13 J.42/225 P.17/111 J.17/33/1/197 P.16/33/0/106 J.0 P.0)
(07-Jack. 31-PITT 29...P.24-14 J.29/135 P.26/43 P.29/42/3/297 J.9/21/2/104 J.0 P.1)
(07-Jacksonville +3' 29-22, Jacksonville -2' 31-29 (Playoffs)...SR: Jacksonville 12-8)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 6
*Minnesota 27 - NEW ORLEANS 24?CB Mike McKenzie (int. last week;
torn ACL late LY) now has two games under his belt to help the N.O. defense
recover from its early-season injuries. And Saints rediscovered Deuce
McAllister (73 YR last week) to take some pressure of Drew Brees (8 TDs, 4
ints.). However, with Gus Frerotte (15 completions to WRs last week; check his
left hand injury) now balancing the Viking offense, will count on Adrian Peterson
(420 YR) and Minny defense to give Vikes a chance for a Monday night surprise.
Minny used to dome conditions. Saints ?over? 17 of last 23. CABLE TV?ESPN
(05-MINNESOTA -3' 33-16...SR: Minnesota 19-7)
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NFL
THE SPORTS MEMO - NFL
MARTY OTTO
INDIANAPOLIS -3 AT HOUSTON
O/U 47
Recommendation: Over
I normally wouldn?t play an NFL total lined this high but some real fundamental and situational factors line up and make this one hard to pass up. For starters, the Houston defense just can?t keep opponents off the scoreboard. They?ve given up at least 30 points in all three of their games thus far, equally gashed on the ground and through the air even by modest offensive teams like Jacksonville and Tennessee. While I think the Colts? offense is somewhat diminished from recent years due to poor health along the front line, they did have the luxury of working out the kinks during their bye last week. Going back to the second half of the Minnesota game we have seen Peyton Manning shake off some of the rust after missing camp with a knee injury and the running game finally make a contribution. When the game has been on the line Manning
has led his team to easy points and I don?t see him having a problem picking apart Houston?s shady secondary. I don?t however think the Colts? defense will be able to fix their problems in one week. They are undersized and inexperienced and the sudden emergence of Steve Slaton for Houston will add to the Colts? misery in stopping
the run. Six straight in this head-to-head have gone Over and this makes seven.
FAIRWAY JAY
SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI +7
Recommendation: Miami
Two weeks ago we cashed our easiest winner of the season when the Dolphins (+12.5) traveled to New England and crushed the AFC Champs 38-13. Now back in action and coming off a bye week, Miami is in a very strong situation as a big home underdog. Numerous strong situational systems support Miami this week, as the players and coaches have the extra week of preparation and planning while the public still approaches these fish as dead and unable to swim with the big fish. The Chargers were losing 15-0 at halftime last week and struggled mightily with the Raiders before scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter to get the 28-18 victory and a remarkable pointspread cover. Oakland had some injured offensive linemen and less than 100% running backs, but still managed to outgain San Diego despite
Tomlinson?s big late touchdown run. This week it will be the Dolphins? ground attack of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams that can chew up yardage similar to how the Panthers and Broncos (140+ each rushing) did while beating San Diego in weeks 1 and 2. Add in some single wing sets, short Pennington passes and a stronger
and improving Dolphins? defense and this ?Dog should be ready to bite again.
DONNIE BLACK
BUFFALO AT ARIZONA -1.5
Recommendation: Arizona
The Cardinals were 2-15 straight up in the Eastern Time Zone entering their game against the New York Jets. To spark some success the organization decided
to stay on the East Coast for the entire week. Many players were not in favor of the plan. Kurt Warner was the most outspoken against it and perhaps the results were indicative of his displeasure. The game results were not good as the Cardinals lost 56-35 and Warner had three fumbles lost and three interceptions. The Cardinals showed some spark as the offense
in the second half was tremendous. However, the defense could not slow down Brett Favre on his way to six touchdown passes. Off the big loss the Cardinals return home to face the perfect 4-0 Buffalo Bills who rallied in the second half to win and cover against the St. Louis Rams. Buffalo was outgained by more than 100 yards and was only 3-of-13 on third down yet was able to manage a 17-point win. For Buffalo, this will be the best team in the most favorable situation that they have faced this season. We expect Arizona to earn the win as we eagerly grab the small line in this matchup.
TEDDY COVERS NEWS AND NOTES
Bengals - Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly no Carson Palmer; really struggling
with the down field passing game. 57 yards and two interceptions
in the first half doesn?t cut it, even for a backup. A big part of the problem is the offensive line. There?s no running game to support the quarterback here, and Fitzpatrick does not have time to find receivers down field. Chris Perry leads NFL running backs in fumbles through four games, another very bad sign. Even with multiple injuries in the secondary,
Cinci did do a solid job of shutting down the Browns passing game, the lone bright spot for the afternoon. This team is playing passionless football, and that?s a very bad sign this early in the season.
Bills - This is a team to bet against in the first quarter/first half. The sluggish starts have been a consistent thing for Buffalo; three straight weeks in which they?ve looked half asleep early. This offensive line is not getting the job done here - Trent Edwards took way too many hits and Marshawn Lynch did not have room to run. We forget how young this team actually is - there are only six players on the roster on the wrong side of 30. Hence, the lapses in concentration and intensity are perfectly understandable. And with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, no team in the NFL has stepped up better than the Bills so far this young season, turning fourth quarter deficits into victories in each of their last three ball games.
Broncos - Brandon Marshall might be the single best receiver in the NFL right now. The guy has linebacker size, but the softest hands around and the ability to outleap defenders. His touchdown catch to give the Broncos the lead here was truly a thing of beauty. With Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler, this passing game is borderline unstoppable, all with players that have three years of experience or less; an outstanding core group to build around. Too bad Jay Cutler had an awful afternoon, his first bad game of the season. This run defense is getting pushed around badly. The problems Denver has had with its front seven in recent years aren?t solved. Dre Bly is clearly the weak link in this secondary. This is not an upper echelon defense by any stretch of the imagination.
Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson is a complete non-factor right now. It?s perfectly clear to anyone who is impartially watching that Darren Sproles is the more explosive running back. Every time Ted Cottrell calls a blitz, something good seems to happen. Every time the defense drops back into coverage, something bad seems to happen - the pass rush simply isn?t there without the blitz. I just can?t fathom why they aren?t blitzing on almost every play. Does anyone else think that Nate Kaeding is the spitting image of a young Bob Newhart, especially following
a missed field goal?
Chiefs - Herm Edwards refused to take a chance on fourth and short from inside the two yard line, settling for 23 and 21-yard field goals in the first quarter. It?s not rocket science to recognize that Edwards is too conservative, but this was downright ridiculous; a coach more interested in hanging around than in putting pressure on their opponent
right from the get-go. These rookie cornerbacks are going to have their share of growing pains. Punter Dustin Colquitt really might be the most important pointspread player on this team, consistently pinning the Broncos deep in their own territory. With all the money and high draft choices they?ve spent on their defensive line over the past few seasons, I have only one question - where?s the pass rush! Key injury to first round draft choice, offensive lineman Brandon Albert, who was carted off the field. At least Larry Johnson showed up today, carrying the team on his back to earn their first win since last October despite the offensive line woes.
Jaguars - These safeties are really struggling in pass coverage - the secondary depth here is not very good. And the once vaunted run defense
looked a bit suspect here - I?ve got serious questions about this defense. The Jags offense had the ball for 26 minutes in the second half against Indy last week, but that was only because the Colts were scoring so quickly. Here, the Texans were able to control the clock for a good portion of the game against Jacksonville. This coaching staff is making excellent adjustments at halftime. For the third week in a row, the Jags came out in the second half and marched down the field, taking control of a close game. David Garrard is really taking apart the Texans secondary with short, precise throws. Four drives in the second half and overtime; four scores.
Jets - Their uniforms are ugly enough to warrant some discussion here. Aren?t the Jets a green and white team, not a yellow-and-blue team? Quit messing me up! This was the second straight week that we?ve seen some ball-hawking potential out of this defense. On Monday
Night, the Jets had a pick six, and they had another one here with Darrelle Revis. Shaun Ellis forced a Kurt Warner fumble for a loss of 23 yards, negating a red zone opportunity, then Dwight Lowery created a turnover two plays later with a devastating hit on Anquan Boldin, recovered by the newly signed Hank Poteat. This young secondary is making some plays! Forcing five first half turnovers goes a long way towards notching a victory in a must win game.
Raiders - The Raiders were able to run the football effectively, even when facing eight or nine men in the box. And with the opposing defense selling out to stop the run, for the second straight week we saw a big play catch and run touchdown throw from JaMarcus Russell. But the passing game couldn?t carry the offense after halftime - held to a single first down for the first 25 minutes of the second half. And once Russell was faced with some blitzes, the offensive production declined markedly.
Texans - The whole offense is predicated on Matt Schaub?s ability to hit receivers in stride, and he?s just not doing that right now. Andre Johnson isn?t running crisp routes, and their shots down the field to Johnson aren?t connecting. Even the bread and butter of the offense, the underneath routes, are not connecting. One touchdown in six red zone possessions heading into this game, and it was a problem again here. Rookie running back Steve Slaton is very slippery, the perfect fit for this offense. But when the offense finally found some rhythm, the defense fell apart, allowing four scores on four drives after halftime. This secondary really is bottom tier - they need Dunta Robinson to get healthy ASAP.
THE SPORTS MEMO - NFL
MARTY OTTO
INDIANAPOLIS -3 AT HOUSTON
O/U 47
Recommendation: Over
I normally wouldn?t play an NFL total lined this high but some real fundamental and situational factors line up and make this one hard to pass up. For starters, the Houston defense just can?t keep opponents off the scoreboard. They?ve given up at least 30 points in all three of their games thus far, equally gashed on the ground and through the air even by modest offensive teams like Jacksonville and Tennessee. While I think the Colts? offense is somewhat diminished from recent years due to poor health along the front line, they did have the luxury of working out the kinks during their bye last week. Going back to the second half of the Minnesota game we have seen Peyton Manning shake off some of the rust after missing camp with a knee injury and the running game finally make a contribution. When the game has been on the line Manning
has led his team to easy points and I don?t see him having a problem picking apart Houston?s shady secondary. I don?t however think the Colts? defense will be able to fix their problems in one week. They are undersized and inexperienced and the sudden emergence of Steve Slaton for Houston will add to the Colts? misery in stopping
the run. Six straight in this head-to-head have gone Over and this makes seven.
FAIRWAY JAY
SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI +7
Recommendation: Miami
Two weeks ago we cashed our easiest winner of the season when the Dolphins (+12.5) traveled to New England and crushed the AFC Champs 38-13. Now back in action and coming off a bye week, Miami is in a very strong situation as a big home underdog. Numerous strong situational systems support Miami this week, as the players and coaches have the extra week of preparation and planning while the public still approaches these fish as dead and unable to swim with the big fish. The Chargers were losing 15-0 at halftime last week and struggled mightily with the Raiders before scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter to get the 28-18 victory and a remarkable pointspread cover. Oakland had some injured offensive linemen and less than 100% running backs, but still managed to outgain San Diego despite
Tomlinson?s big late touchdown run. This week it will be the Dolphins? ground attack of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams that can chew up yardage similar to how the Panthers and Broncos (140+ each rushing) did while beating San Diego in weeks 1 and 2. Add in some single wing sets, short Pennington passes and a stronger
and improving Dolphins? defense and this ?Dog should be ready to bite again.
DONNIE BLACK
BUFFALO AT ARIZONA -1.5
Recommendation: Arizona
The Cardinals were 2-15 straight up in the Eastern Time Zone entering their game against the New York Jets. To spark some success the organization decided
to stay on the East Coast for the entire week. Many players were not in favor of the plan. Kurt Warner was the most outspoken against it and perhaps the results were indicative of his displeasure. The game results were not good as the Cardinals lost 56-35 and Warner had three fumbles lost and three interceptions. The Cardinals showed some spark as the offense
in the second half was tremendous. However, the defense could not slow down Brett Favre on his way to six touchdown passes. Off the big loss the Cardinals return home to face the perfect 4-0 Buffalo Bills who rallied in the second half to win and cover against the St. Louis Rams. Buffalo was outgained by more than 100 yards and was only 3-of-13 on third down yet was able to manage a 17-point win. For Buffalo, this will be the best team in the most favorable situation that they have faced this season. We expect Arizona to earn the win as we eagerly grab the small line in this matchup.
TEDDY COVERS NEWS AND NOTES
Bengals - Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly no Carson Palmer; really struggling
with the down field passing game. 57 yards and two interceptions
in the first half doesn?t cut it, even for a backup. A big part of the problem is the offensive line. There?s no running game to support the quarterback here, and Fitzpatrick does not have time to find receivers down field. Chris Perry leads NFL running backs in fumbles through four games, another very bad sign. Even with multiple injuries in the secondary,
Cinci did do a solid job of shutting down the Browns passing game, the lone bright spot for the afternoon. This team is playing passionless football, and that?s a very bad sign this early in the season.
Bills - This is a team to bet against in the first quarter/first half. The sluggish starts have been a consistent thing for Buffalo; three straight weeks in which they?ve looked half asleep early. This offensive line is not getting the job done here - Trent Edwards took way too many hits and Marshawn Lynch did not have room to run. We forget how young this team actually is - there are only six players on the roster on the wrong side of 30. Hence, the lapses in concentration and intensity are perfectly understandable. And with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, no team in the NFL has stepped up better than the Bills so far this young season, turning fourth quarter deficits into victories in each of their last three ball games.
Broncos - Brandon Marshall might be the single best receiver in the NFL right now. The guy has linebacker size, but the softest hands around and the ability to outleap defenders. His touchdown catch to give the Broncos the lead here was truly a thing of beauty. With Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler, this passing game is borderline unstoppable, all with players that have three years of experience or less; an outstanding core group to build around. Too bad Jay Cutler had an awful afternoon, his first bad game of the season. This run defense is getting pushed around badly. The problems Denver has had with its front seven in recent years aren?t solved. Dre Bly is clearly the weak link in this secondary. This is not an upper echelon defense by any stretch of the imagination.
Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson is a complete non-factor right now. It?s perfectly clear to anyone who is impartially watching that Darren Sproles is the more explosive running back. Every time Ted Cottrell calls a blitz, something good seems to happen. Every time the defense drops back into coverage, something bad seems to happen - the pass rush simply isn?t there without the blitz. I just can?t fathom why they aren?t blitzing on almost every play. Does anyone else think that Nate Kaeding is the spitting image of a young Bob Newhart, especially following
a missed field goal?
Chiefs - Herm Edwards refused to take a chance on fourth and short from inside the two yard line, settling for 23 and 21-yard field goals in the first quarter. It?s not rocket science to recognize that Edwards is too conservative, but this was downright ridiculous; a coach more interested in hanging around than in putting pressure on their opponent
right from the get-go. These rookie cornerbacks are going to have their share of growing pains. Punter Dustin Colquitt really might be the most important pointspread player on this team, consistently pinning the Broncos deep in their own territory. With all the money and high draft choices they?ve spent on their defensive line over the past few seasons, I have only one question - where?s the pass rush! Key injury to first round draft choice, offensive lineman Brandon Albert, who was carted off the field. At least Larry Johnson showed up today, carrying the team on his back to earn their first win since last October despite the offensive line woes.
Jaguars - These safeties are really struggling in pass coverage - the secondary depth here is not very good. And the once vaunted run defense
looked a bit suspect here - I?ve got serious questions about this defense. The Jags offense had the ball for 26 minutes in the second half against Indy last week, but that was only because the Colts were scoring so quickly. Here, the Texans were able to control the clock for a good portion of the game against Jacksonville. This coaching staff is making excellent adjustments at halftime. For the third week in a row, the Jags came out in the second half and marched down the field, taking control of a close game. David Garrard is really taking apart the Texans secondary with short, precise throws. Four drives in the second half and overtime; four scores.
Jets - Their uniforms are ugly enough to warrant some discussion here. Aren?t the Jets a green and white team, not a yellow-and-blue team? Quit messing me up! This was the second straight week that we?ve seen some ball-hawking potential out of this defense. On Monday
Night, the Jets had a pick six, and they had another one here with Darrelle Revis. Shaun Ellis forced a Kurt Warner fumble for a loss of 23 yards, negating a red zone opportunity, then Dwight Lowery created a turnover two plays later with a devastating hit on Anquan Boldin, recovered by the newly signed Hank Poteat. This young secondary is making some plays! Forcing five first half turnovers goes a long way towards notching a victory in a must win game.
Raiders - The Raiders were able to run the football effectively, even when facing eight or nine men in the box. And with the opposing defense selling out to stop the run, for the second straight week we saw a big play catch and run touchdown throw from JaMarcus Russell. But the passing game couldn?t carry the offense after halftime - held to a single first down for the first 25 minutes of the second half. And once Russell was faced with some blitzes, the offensive production declined markedly.
Texans - The whole offense is predicated on Matt Schaub?s ability to hit receivers in stride, and he?s just not doing that right now. Andre Johnson isn?t running crisp routes, and their shots down the field to Johnson aren?t connecting. Even the bread and butter of the offense, the underneath routes, are not connecting. One touchdown in six red zone possessions heading into this game, and it was a problem again here. Rookie running back Steve Slaton is very slippery, the perfect fit for this offense. But when the offense finally found some rhythm, the defense fell apart, allowing four scores on four drives after halftime. This secondary really is bottom tier - they need Dunta Robinson to get healthy ASAP.
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Doug Williams
Here we go with Week 5 -- 2nd quarter of the season. We're starting to see some big lines, big matchups, and big byes.
The Picks:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Indianapolis Colts (-3) OVER Houston Texans (+3) -- Indy's coming off a bye week and they're going to be hungry. Steve Slaton might run all over them, but I still like Manning to come through for the Colts (and you guys).
New England Patriots (-3) OVER San Fran 49ers (+3) -- Ok, so if I told you last year that taking the Colts AND Pats at -3 in week 5 wouldn't be a no-brainer, would you believe me? Believe me now, bye week = rested, covering machines.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) OVER Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) -- I'm taking the home faves in this one. Big Ben has been taking a beating lately, and I just don't like the Steelers' RB situation. Go Jags.
Dallas Cowboys (-16) Over The Bengals (+16) -- taking a line that's over 2 TDs? Yes. The 'boys are just that much better than this dysfunctional squad. I feel a lot stronger about the first three picks...but why not this one too?
Here we go with Week 5 -- 2nd quarter of the season. We're starting to see some big lines, big matchups, and big byes.
The Picks:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Indianapolis Colts (-3) OVER Houston Texans (+3) -- Indy's coming off a bye week and they're going to be hungry. Steve Slaton might run all over them, but I still like Manning to come through for the Colts (and you guys).
New England Patriots (-3) OVER San Fran 49ers (+3) -- Ok, so if I told you last year that taking the Colts AND Pats at -3 in week 5 wouldn't be a no-brainer, would you believe me? Believe me now, bye week = rested, covering machines.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) OVER Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) -- I'm taking the home faves in this one. Big Ben has been taking a beating lately, and I just don't like the Steelers' RB situation. Go Jags.
Dallas Cowboys (-16) Over The Bengals (+16) -- taking a line that's over 2 TDs? Yes. The 'boys are just that much better than this dysfunctional squad. I feel a lot stronger about the first three picks...but why not this one too?
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ace-ace
$400.00 Take ?Under? 44.5 Chicago at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
The 'under' is 5-2 in Chicago's last seven road games. I think that Detroit is going to "get back to basics" after their bye week and I look for them to commit to the running game. I also think that they will shore up their defense in the time off and that they won't get blown out like they have in their first three games. This game features two teams that both employ the Tampa-2 defense, which is supposed to minimize big plays. Also, this is a key game for both teams that could change the direction of both seasons. I expect it to be close and to stay in the 30's.
$2000.00 Take Denver (-3) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) -110
The Broncos come home after an upset loss and should regroup nicely. This is a very young, inexperienced Denver squad and I think that they are going to be affected more drastically by playing at home versus on the road. Tampa Bay is coming off a pretty emotional home win over Green Bay, but they had trouble with the Packers passing attack.
$300.00 Take ?Under? 47.0 Indianapolis at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
Also Houston +3 for $300.00 +104
We are going against the squares with this selection, as everyone expects two big offenses to put up all kinds of points. However, both teams move the ball well enough to keep the chains - and the clock - moving. I also don't think either team stops the run particularly well so look for both teams to keep it on the ground. Many of the games in this series have gone 'over', so I am looking for the books to overcompensate and for us to collect with an easy 'under'.
$800.00 Take Buffalo (+1.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +104
People continue to doubt the undefeated Buffalo Bills. They are undefeated on the season, and if they can win in Jacksonville I think they can win out in the desert against a Cardinals team that has only beaten bad teams like Miami and San Francisco. Arizona is also probably going to be without some key contributors, as Anquan Boldin and Adrian Wilson are both just 50-50 to play. Buffalo is 13-4-2 ATS following an ATS win and I think they keep it rolling.
$2000.00 Take Washington (+6) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
I don't think that Brian Westbrook is going to play this weekend, and if he doesn't then look for the Redskins to make it back-to-back divisional wins on the road. Even if Westbrook does suit up, he won't be 100 percent and the Eagles are not the same team without him in the lineup. The Redskins have covered seven of nine games in conference play and they are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven against the Eagles. The road team has been the play in this series, winning six of nine games outright. I think the points hold up.
$400.00 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+16), Take Vanderbilt (+14.5), and Take Kansas City (+19.5) -480/400
$400.00 Take ?Under? 44.5 Chicago at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
The 'under' is 5-2 in Chicago's last seven road games. I think that Detroit is going to "get back to basics" after their bye week and I look for them to commit to the running game. I also think that they will shore up their defense in the time off and that they won't get blown out like they have in their first three games. This game features two teams that both employ the Tampa-2 defense, which is supposed to minimize big plays. Also, this is a key game for both teams that could change the direction of both seasons. I expect it to be close and to stay in the 30's.
$2000.00 Take Denver (-3) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) -110
The Broncos come home after an upset loss and should regroup nicely. This is a very young, inexperienced Denver squad and I think that they are going to be affected more drastically by playing at home versus on the road. Tampa Bay is coming off a pretty emotional home win over Green Bay, but they had trouble with the Packers passing attack.
$300.00 Take ?Under? 47.0 Indianapolis at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
Also Houston +3 for $300.00 +104
We are going against the squares with this selection, as everyone expects two big offenses to put up all kinds of points. However, both teams move the ball well enough to keep the chains - and the clock - moving. I also don't think either team stops the run particularly well so look for both teams to keep it on the ground. Many of the games in this series have gone 'over', so I am looking for the books to overcompensate and for us to collect with an easy 'under'.
$800.00 Take Buffalo (+1.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +104
People continue to doubt the undefeated Buffalo Bills. They are undefeated on the season, and if they can win in Jacksonville I think they can win out in the desert against a Cardinals team that has only beaten bad teams like Miami and San Francisco. Arizona is also probably going to be without some key contributors, as Anquan Boldin and Adrian Wilson are both just 50-50 to play. Buffalo is 13-4-2 ATS following an ATS win and I think they keep it rolling.
$2000.00 Take Washington (+6) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 5) +100
I don't think that Brian Westbrook is going to play this weekend, and if he doesn't then look for the Redskins to make it back-to-back divisional wins on the road. Even if Westbrook does suit up, he won't be 100 percent and the Eagles are not the same team without him in the lineup. The Redskins have covered seven of nine games in conference play and they are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven against the Eagles. The road team has been the play in this series, winning six of nine games outright. I think the points hold up.
$400.00 SWEETHEART TEASER: Take Washington (+16), Take Vanderbilt (+14.5), and Take Kansas City (+19.5) -480/400
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maddux sports
Football
#408 - NFL - 3 units on Baltimore +3
#424 - NFL - 3 units on San Francisco +3.5
#426 - NFL - 3 units on Arizona -1
#417 - NFL - 3 units on Atlanta & Green Bay Over 40.5
#429 - NFL - 3 units on Pittsburgh +5.5
2 Added picks for the Sunday card. Going to take a pass on Miami and not force a play at +6, if you can get +7 -110 with a local I think they are a good bet. Everyone will likely to be on Jacksonville Sunday night so you may get a better line before kickoff if you wait. Getting the opportunity of Pittsburgh +6 or better is worth taking the chance of losing +5 which is a dead number in the NFL
Football
#408 - NFL - 3 units on Baltimore +3
#424 - NFL - 3 units on San Francisco +3.5
#426 - NFL - 3 units on Arizona -1
#417 - NFL - 3 units on Atlanta & Green Bay Over 40.5
#429 - NFL - 3 units on Pittsburgh +5.5
2 Added picks for the Sunday card. Going to take a pass on Miami and not force a play at +6, if you can get +7 -110 with a local I think they are a good bet. Everyone will likely to be on Jacksonville Sunday night so you may get a better line before kickoff if you wait. Getting the opportunity of Pittsburgh +6 or better is worth taking the chance of losing +5 which is a dead number in the NFL
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Golden Contender Sunday Nfl System Club Play Courtesy Of Selective Sportssystems on Sunday They System Club Play Is On The Philly Eagles.game 414 At 1pm Eastern.the Eagles Qualify In A Few Tight Systems One Of Which Goes Against The Redskins Which Is Hitting In The High 90/s As Far As Percentage Wise Goes.last Weeks System Club Play Cashed Making The Nfl Record Even At 2-2.lets See If We Can Get It Over 500 Today.due To The Redskins Big Upset Win Last Week They Are Set Up In A Lot Of Negative Situations On Sunday,one Of Which Is To Play Against Road Dogs Between 5-10 Points Provided They Are Off A Road Dog Win,and There Opponent Is Off A Road Favored Loss.with The Big Dog Win In Dallas Coupled With The Philly Failure In Chicago Last Week Ill Back The Eagles Here On Sunday.the Record Of The Aforementioned System Is 0-11 Su 2-9 Ats Against The Skins.for The Rest Of The Card I Have A 19-0 Su-ats System Bomb Where Qualifying Teams Are Winning By An Average Of 17 Points Per Game.a 92% Totals Play In Nfc Action, Plus A Solid Home Dog Situation And A Bases Play. The Eagles Will Be Rated At 4 Units At 7 Or Less Bol Goldencontender.
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CAUTION ON THE INDIAN COWBOYS (POD) I GOT COLTS/TEXANS GAME GOING UNDER..:nono:
roqqin riq
roqqin riq
thanks for heads up,, if someone can check would be appreciated,, thanks again,,,, let me know,, thanks
roqqin riq
thanks for heads up,, if someone can check would be appreciated,, thanks again,,,, let me know,, thanks
