BURNS
NBA
DALLAS
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 3/23/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Mavericks Reason: I'm laying the points with DALLAS. I have a lot of respect for the Spurs and its hard to imagine that facing them would represent a "step down in class" from anyone. That's arguably the case here though, as the Mavs come off games vs. the Celtics and Lakers, arguably the top current team from each conference. While it remains to be seen which team will prove to be the best come playoff time, I expect the Mavs to be the best this afternoon. The fact that they lost the games vs. LA and Boston (both losses were very close) and the fact that they have struggled to beat top tier teams since the Kidd trade, makes this an extremely important game - both for playoff positioning and for pyschological reasons. The team badly needs a big win over a quality opponent. The defending champs certainly qualify as a 'quality opponent' and I expect the Mavs to come out with their guns blazing. They've played the Spurs tough in all three games. They lost by two points at San Antonio in December. Last month, also at San Antonio, they lost by three points, covering as five point underdogs. However, when the teams met at Dallas, the Mavs won by double-digits. That's not really surprising as both teams are MUCH better at home. The Spurs are 28-6 at San Antonio but just 18-17 at home. The disparity is even bigger for Dallas as the Mavs are a poor 15-19 on the road but an excellent 29-6 at home. Including the earlier win, the Mavs have won four of the last six regular season series meetings with the Spurs. They've won those games by an average of 18.3 points per game. I believe this game is more important to the Mavs and I expect them to be the "hungrier" team. Look for them to deliver an Easter Sunday victory for the home fans, covering the small number along the way. *TV GOW
TORONTO
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 3/23/2008 3:35:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Raptors Reason: I'm laying the small number with TORONTO. The Raptors have struggled recently. However, those struggles have come without Chris Bosh in the lineup and primarily on the road. Bosh is back (24 points in 37 minutes on Friday) and the Raptors are playing a home game on Easter Sunday afternoon. Note that the Raptors, who regularly play home games on Sunday afternoon, are 12-5 their last 17 in that situation with 10 of those victories coming by a minimum of five points. Overall, the Raptors have won six of their last eight games here with the six victories coming by an average margin of more than 21 points! The Raptors will have payback on their minds as they were embarrassed at Denver recently. Note that they didn't have Bosh in the lineup for that game and that they were playing the middle game of a 5-game road trip. This time, its the Nuggets who are playing the fourth game of a 5-game road trip. More important than getting 'revenge,' the Raptors desperately just need a victory. They've slipped in the standings and are in danger of falling to 500 on the season. With Bosh in the lineup, they're a better team than that and I expect them to respond with a massive effort here. Its true that the Nuggets have been tough on Toronto in recent years. However, its also worth noting that the teams faced each other here on this exact day last year. The Raptors held Iverson and Anthony to a combined 6-of-27 from the field and the Raptors rolled to a 27 point victory. The Nuggets haven't fared particularly well as underdogs, going just 8-12 ATS (4-16 SU) when getting points this season. That includes a 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS mark their last six and a 4-8 ATS (1-11 SU!) mark their last 12. I look for history to repeat itself and for the Nuggets to struggle here for the second straight year. *Best Bet
BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER oklahoma/louisville
Game: Oklahoma vs. Louisville Game Time: 3/23/2008 5:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Louisville and Oklahoma to finish UNDER the number. The Cardinals played a very high-scoring team (Boise State) in their opener, as the Broncos came into that game having averaged 84.8 points in 17 road/neutral games on the season. The Cardinals dominated defensively though, holding the Broncos to a mere 61 points. The Broncos hit 40 percent of their 3-point attempts this season, putting them among the nation's top 20, but were just 4-for-17 against the aggressive Louisville defense. Rick Pitino would comment: "We did a good job of stopping a tremendous 3-point shooting team." Despite the Cardinals shooting well themselves, the game still fell comfortably below the closing number. That marked the third time in four games that the Cardinals have held an opponent to 61 points or less, as they limited Georgetown to 55 and Villanova to 54. Note that the UNDER is now 24-13 their last 37 non-conference games which had a total. Additionally, its also worth noting that the Cardinals have seen the UNDER go 13-7 the last 20 times that they played with one day or less worth of rest in between games. While Friday's opponent averaged nearly 85 points per game on the road, today the Cardinals will face an opponent which scored a mere 62.8 points per game on the road this season, averaging just 27.1 in the first half. The Sooners make up for their lack of offensive explosiveness by playing solid defense, allowing an average of 63.4 points per game for the season and 62.4 their last five games. The Sooners saw their opener vs. St. Joseph's finish above the number with 136 (72-64) combined points. However, they'd previously seen seven straight games fall below the number. Despite Friday's result, the Sooners have still seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 44-25 their last 69 non-conference games which had a total. During that stretch, they've seen the UNDER go 44-21 (68%) when listed as underdogs. Cardinals forward Terrence Williams said: "This will be kind of the battle of our bigs versus their bigs." I also expect a physical defensive affair with the UNDER improving to 7-2 on the season when Louisville played a game with an over/under line in the 120s. *Blue Chip
TENNESSEE
Game: Butler vs. Tennessee Game Time: 3/23/2008 2:30:00 PM Prediction: Tennessee Reason: I'm laying the points with TENNESSEE. The fact that Butler has been covering lately while Tennessee has been struggling against the spread, has given us excellent line value with what I feel is the stronger team. Yes, both teams have 30 victories. However, Butler's victories came against significantly weaker opponents as Tennessee had to deal with the likes of Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida in SEC play play while Butler faced teams like Detroit, Youngstown State and Wright State in the Horizon League. Taking a look at the losses shows that Butler can be beaten by somewhat mediocre teams while the Volunteers only lose vs. the toughest teams or at the toughest venues. While Tennesee's losses came vs. Texas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, Butler's losses came against Wright State, Cleveland State and Drake. The Bulldogs didn't beat any really elite teams either. On the other hand, the Volunteers knocked off Memphis when the Tigers were #1. They also beat the likes of Xavier, West Virginia and Gonzaga in non-conference action. After failing to win their conference tournament and not getting a #1 seed, the Vols come into the tournament with a chip on their shoulder. As Tennessee star Chris Lofton had to say: "We're out to prove something, so it should be a great game." The Vols got their "wake up call" in the first round as American hung around longer than expected and covered the spread. They'll be fully focused here, particularly as Butler beat them early last season, holding the Vols to a season low (44) in total points. As Lofton said: "Last year we overlooked Butler, being from the Horizon League." They won't make that same mistake twice. They're 3-1 SU/ATS after failing to cover the spread in three consecutive games the past few seasons and I expect them to record a convincing victory here. *Personal Favorite
UNDER memphis/miss. state
Game: Mississippi State vs. Memphis Game Time: 3/23/2008 4:45:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Memphis and Mississippi State to finish UNDER the number. Its true that Memphis has an excellent offense, as they averaged 79.9 points per game. That number is somewhat lower on the road though, as they averaged 75.1 points in 15 games away from home. Note that the Tigers numbers are somewhat inflated due to playing in the relatively weak Conference USA. The Tigers did show that they were capable of playing low-scoring games when matched up against solid defensive non-conference teams earlier in the season though, as they beat Oklahoma 63-53 and beat USC 62-58. While Tigers' offense gets all the attention, the defense is also very strong. In fact, the 63 points they allowed in the first round was the most they had given up in their past six games. Their previous five opponents finished with scores of 51, 53, 56, 56 and 55. Despite their opener slipping over the number, the Tigers have still seen the UNDER go 17-7-1 their last 25 games in March. During the same stretch, they've seen the UNDER go 17-8 when playing with one or less day's rest in between games and 27-18 in 45 games (with a total) after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. They'll face a strong Mississippi State defense which will be attempting to slow down the pace as much as possible. The Bulldogs allowed 64 points when playing away from home this season, while seeing the UNDER go 10-5. Look for the Bulldogs' Charles Rhodes and Jarvis Varnado to make things difficult inside and force the Tigers into a slower game. Note that the 6-9 sophomore Varnado needs six blocked shots to break Shaquille O'Neal's SEC record of 158, set in 1991-92. The Bulldogs faced Oregon in the first round and it became clear that the Ducks were intimidated by Varnado. Not only were they scared to come inside but they shot horribly from long-range, going just 2 of 21 with their second half 3-point attempts. I feel that the number is generous and I look for the final score to be lower than expected with the UNDER improving to 5-0 the last five times that the Bulldogs were listed as neutral court underdogs of three points or less. *2nd Rd Total of the Year
NBA
DALLAS
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks Game Time: 3/23/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Mavericks Reason: I'm laying the points with DALLAS. I have a lot of respect for the Spurs and its hard to imagine that facing them would represent a "step down in class" from anyone. That's arguably the case here though, as the Mavs come off games vs. the Celtics and Lakers, arguably the top current team from each conference. While it remains to be seen which team will prove to be the best come playoff time, I expect the Mavs to be the best this afternoon. The fact that they lost the games vs. LA and Boston (both losses were very close) and the fact that they have struggled to beat top tier teams since the Kidd trade, makes this an extremely important game - both for playoff positioning and for pyschological reasons. The team badly needs a big win over a quality opponent. The defending champs certainly qualify as a 'quality opponent' and I expect the Mavs to come out with their guns blazing. They've played the Spurs tough in all three games. They lost by two points at San Antonio in December. Last month, also at San Antonio, they lost by three points, covering as five point underdogs. However, when the teams met at Dallas, the Mavs won by double-digits. That's not really surprising as both teams are MUCH better at home. The Spurs are 28-6 at San Antonio but just 18-17 at home. The disparity is even bigger for Dallas as the Mavs are a poor 15-19 on the road but an excellent 29-6 at home. Including the earlier win, the Mavs have won four of the last six regular season series meetings with the Spurs. They've won those games by an average of 18.3 points per game. I believe this game is more important to the Mavs and I expect them to be the "hungrier" team. Look for them to deliver an Easter Sunday victory for the home fans, covering the small number along the way. *TV GOW
TORONTO
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 3/23/2008 3:35:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Raptors Reason: I'm laying the small number with TORONTO. The Raptors have struggled recently. However, those struggles have come without Chris Bosh in the lineup and primarily on the road. Bosh is back (24 points in 37 minutes on Friday) and the Raptors are playing a home game on Easter Sunday afternoon. Note that the Raptors, who regularly play home games on Sunday afternoon, are 12-5 their last 17 in that situation with 10 of those victories coming by a minimum of five points. Overall, the Raptors have won six of their last eight games here with the six victories coming by an average margin of more than 21 points! The Raptors will have payback on their minds as they were embarrassed at Denver recently. Note that they didn't have Bosh in the lineup for that game and that they were playing the middle game of a 5-game road trip. This time, its the Nuggets who are playing the fourth game of a 5-game road trip. More important than getting 'revenge,' the Raptors desperately just need a victory. They've slipped in the standings and are in danger of falling to 500 on the season. With Bosh in the lineup, they're a better team than that and I expect them to respond with a massive effort here. Its true that the Nuggets have been tough on Toronto in recent years. However, its also worth noting that the teams faced each other here on this exact day last year. The Raptors held Iverson and Anthony to a combined 6-of-27 from the field and the Raptors rolled to a 27 point victory. The Nuggets haven't fared particularly well as underdogs, going just 8-12 ATS (4-16 SU) when getting points this season. That includes a 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS mark their last six and a 4-8 ATS (1-11 SU!) mark their last 12. I look for history to repeat itself and for the Nuggets to struggle here for the second straight year. *Best Bet
BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER oklahoma/louisville
Game: Oklahoma vs. Louisville Game Time: 3/23/2008 5:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Louisville and Oklahoma to finish UNDER the number. The Cardinals played a very high-scoring team (Boise State) in their opener, as the Broncos came into that game having averaged 84.8 points in 17 road/neutral games on the season. The Cardinals dominated defensively though, holding the Broncos to a mere 61 points. The Broncos hit 40 percent of their 3-point attempts this season, putting them among the nation's top 20, but were just 4-for-17 against the aggressive Louisville defense. Rick Pitino would comment: "We did a good job of stopping a tremendous 3-point shooting team." Despite the Cardinals shooting well themselves, the game still fell comfortably below the closing number. That marked the third time in four games that the Cardinals have held an opponent to 61 points or less, as they limited Georgetown to 55 and Villanova to 54. Note that the UNDER is now 24-13 their last 37 non-conference games which had a total. Additionally, its also worth noting that the Cardinals have seen the UNDER go 13-7 the last 20 times that they played with one day or less worth of rest in between games. While Friday's opponent averaged nearly 85 points per game on the road, today the Cardinals will face an opponent which scored a mere 62.8 points per game on the road this season, averaging just 27.1 in the first half. The Sooners make up for their lack of offensive explosiveness by playing solid defense, allowing an average of 63.4 points per game for the season and 62.4 their last five games. The Sooners saw their opener vs. St. Joseph's finish above the number with 136 (72-64) combined points. However, they'd previously seen seven straight games fall below the number. Despite Friday's result, the Sooners have still seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 44-25 their last 69 non-conference games which had a total. During that stretch, they've seen the UNDER go 44-21 (68%) when listed as underdogs. Cardinals forward Terrence Williams said: "This will be kind of the battle of our bigs versus their bigs." I also expect a physical defensive affair with the UNDER improving to 7-2 on the season when Louisville played a game with an over/under line in the 120s. *Blue Chip
TENNESSEE
Game: Butler vs. Tennessee Game Time: 3/23/2008 2:30:00 PM Prediction: Tennessee Reason: I'm laying the points with TENNESSEE. The fact that Butler has been covering lately while Tennessee has been struggling against the spread, has given us excellent line value with what I feel is the stronger team. Yes, both teams have 30 victories. However, Butler's victories came against significantly weaker opponents as Tennessee had to deal with the likes of Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Florida in SEC play play while Butler faced teams like Detroit, Youngstown State and Wright State in the Horizon League. Taking a look at the losses shows that Butler can be beaten by somewhat mediocre teams while the Volunteers only lose vs. the toughest teams or at the toughest venues. While Tennesee's losses came vs. Texas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Arkansas, Butler's losses came against Wright State, Cleveland State and Drake. The Bulldogs didn't beat any really elite teams either. On the other hand, the Volunteers knocked off Memphis when the Tigers were #1. They also beat the likes of Xavier, West Virginia and Gonzaga in non-conference action. After failing to win their conference tournament and not getting a #1 seed, the Vols come into the tournament with a chip on their shoulder. As Tennessee star Chris Lofton had to say: "We're out to prove something, so it should be a great game." The Vols got their "wake up call" in the first round as American hung around longer than expected and covered the spread. They'll be fully focused here, particularly as Butler beat them early last season, holding the Vols to a season low (44) in total points. As Lofton said: "Last year we overlooked Butler, being from the Horizon League." They won't make that same mistake twice. They're 3-1 SU/ATS after failing to cover the spread in three consecutive games the past few seasons and I expect them to record a convincing victory here. *Personal Favorite
UNDER memphis/miss. state
Game: Mississippi State vs. Memphis Game Time: 3/23/2008 4:45:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Memphis and Mississippi State to finish UNDER the number. Its true that Memphis has an excellent offense, as they averaged 79.9 points per game. That number is somewhat lower on the road though, as they averaged 75.1 points in 15 games away from home. Note that the Tigers numbers are somewhat inflated due to playing in the relatively weak Conference USA. The Tigers did show that they were capable of playing low-scoring games when matched up against solid defensive non-conference teams earlier in the season though, as they beat Oklahoma 63-53 and beat USC 62-58. While Tigers' offense gets all the attention, the defense is also very strong. In fact, the 63 points they allowed in the first round was the most they had given up in their past six games. Their previous five opponents finished with scores of 51, 53, 56, 56 and 55. Despite their opener slipping over the number, the Tigers have still seen the UNDER go 17-7-1 their last 25 games in March. During the same stretch, they've seen the UNDER go 17-8 when playing with one or less day's rest in between games and 27-18 in 45 games (with a total) after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. They'll face a strong Mississippi State defense which will be attempting to slow down the pace as much as possible. The Bulldogs allowed 64 points when playing away from home this season, while seeing the UNDER go 10-5. Look for the Bulldogs' Charles Rhodes and Jarvis Varnado to make things difficult inside and force the Tigers into a slower game. Note that the 6-9 sophomore Varnado needs six blocked shots to break Shaquille O'Neal's SEC record of 158, set in 1991-92. The Bulldogs faced Oregon in the first round and it became clear that the Ducks were intimidated by Varnado. Not only were they scared to come inside but they shot horribly from long-range, going just 2 of 21 with their second half 3-point attempts. I feel that the number is generous and I look for the final score to be lower than expected with the UNDER improving to 5-0 the last five times that the Bulldogs were listed as neutral court underdogs of three points or less. *2nd Rd Total of the Year
