Service plays thursday 10/23/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
- Start date
- Apr 7, 2008
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Dave Cokin
(11) EDM Oilers
(12) COL Avalanche
Take "(12) COL Avalanche"
The Edmonton Oilers have surged out of the NHL gate and they're a better team than Colorado. But the Avs still maintain one of the better built-in home ice edges in the league under the right circumstances. That high altitude in Denver has always been tough for visiting teams playing the second of back to back road games when the Avalanche had the prior night off. That's definitely in the price here, as there's about a dime adjustement. But with this being the early portion of the schedule and teams still trying to find their legs, it's a decent spot for Colorado, so I'll spot the number for my Thursday free play.
(11) EDM Oilers
(12) COL Avalanche
Take "(12) COL Avalanche"
The Edmonton Oilers have surged out of the NHL gate and they're a better team than Colorado. But the Avs still maintain one of the better built-in home ice edges in the league under the right circumstances. That high altitude in Denver has always been tough for visiting teams playing the second of back to back road games when the Avalanche had the prior night off. That's definitely in the price here, as there's about a dime adjustement. But with this being the early portion of the schedule and teams still trying to find their legs, it's a decent spot for Colorado, so I'll spot the number for my Thursday free play.
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Jim Feist
(13) WAS Capitals
(14) PHX Coyotes
Take "(14) PHX Coyotes"
The Phoenix Coyotes aren't as bad as the 3-game skid might have you think. All were on the road. In fact, they are 1-0 at home this season and begin a 4-game home stand here. The Coyotes are going to have their moments, both good and bad. They are not completely there yet in terms of jelling, but the pieces are in place - goalie Ilya Bryzgalov is much better than his past three games; center Olli Jokinen's goal-scoring will begin to pick up; the four rookies will get better, and the defense should improve. The nice thing about sports is that redemption can be just around the corner. The first big test is Washington, and with a packed house expected to get a first-hand look at the Capitals' Alex Ovechkin on Thursday night, it would be an opportune time for the Coyotes to get things moving in the right direction. Washington is a LONG way from home, and has a losing road record. Phoenix has had a full 4 days off for this one, making it a great spot for the home team. Play Phoenix.
(13) WAS Capitals
(14) PHX Coyotes
Take "(14) PHX Coyotes"
The Phoenix Coyotes aren't as bad as the 3-game skid might have you think. All were on the road. In fact, they are 1-0 at home this season and begin a 4-game home stand here. The Coyotes are going to have their moments, both good and bad. They are not completely there yet in terms of jelling, but the pieces are in place - goalie Ilya Bryzgalov is much better than his past three games; center Olli Jokinen's goal-scoring will begin to pick up; the four rookies will get better, and the defense should improve. The nice thing about sports is that redemption can be just around the corner. The first big test is Washington, and with a packed house expected to get a first-hand look at the Capitals' Alex Ovechkin on Thursday night, it would be an opportune time for the Coyotes to get things moving in the right direction. Washington is a LONG way from home, and has a losing road record. Phoenix has had a full 4 days off for this one, making it a great spot for the home team. Play Phoenix.
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Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (6-1 CFB run) (3-0 this week)
Larry "got back on track" in CFB when TCU crushed BYU 32-7 last Thursday. When Temple edged Ohio 14-10 (Tues), it left Larry 6-1 (85.7% ATS) with his CFB releases the L7 days. His first play of each CFB weekend is his Las Vegas Insider but for the first time in CFB '08, that exclusive release comes on a Thursday contest. Want in?
Air Force
Larry "got back on track" in CFB when TCU crushed BYU 32-7 last Thursday. When Temple edged Ohio 14-10 (Tues), it left Larry 6-1 (85.7% ATS) with his CFB releases the L7 days. His first play of each CFB weekend is his Las Vegas Insider but for the first time in CFB '08, that exclusive release comes on a Thursday contest. Want in?
Air Force
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POINTWISE
WEST VIRGINIA 17 - Auburn 15 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Not the explosive meeting that TV expected. Tigers 0-6 ATS LA, with last 5 decided by 1, 5, 2, 1, & 3 SU. Just 1 TD & 56 RYs vs Arkansas' paper "D", but rank #10 in scoring "D". WVa: only 17 ppg last 5, & ranks #78 in total "O". Potential, but we don't get near it.
AIR FORCE 31 - New Mexico 30 - (8:00 - CBSC)) -- Home series, & Falcs on 11-3 ATS run, while piling up 747 RYs last 2 wks. But they've allowed 30 & 33 pts in their last 2 HGs, & Lobos are also cranking it up as well: 291 RYpg last 3 outings, & in off 70-7 pasting of SDSt. Visitor is 30-18 ATS in NewMex games.
WEST VIRGINIA 17 - Auburn 15 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Not the explosive meeting that TV expected. Tigers 0-6 ATS LA, with last 5 decided by 1, 5, 2, 1, & 3 SU. Just 1 TD & 56 RYs vs Arkansas' paper "D", but rank #10 in scoring "D". WVa: only 17 ppg last 5, & ranks #78 in total "O". Potential, but we don't get near it.
AIR FORCE 31 - New Mexico 30 - (8:00 - CBSC)) -- Home series, & Falcs on 11-3 ATS run, while piling up 747 RYs last 2 wks. But they've allowed 30 & 33 pts in their last 2 HGs, & Lobos are also cranking it up as well: 291 RYpg last 3 outings, & in off 70-7 pasting of SDSt. Visitor is 30-18 ATS in NewMex games.
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THE GOLD SHEET
Auburn 20 - WEST VIRGINIA 19?Star sr. QB Pat White should be back in
action for West Virginia. Still, TY?s Mountaineer offense was already looking
very mediocre (especially in comparison with prolific strike forces of last few
seasons) before White sat out 17-6 home win over woeful Syracuse on Oct. 11.
Extra week of prep no panacea for wayward Auburn attack. But time enough for
some tweaking by veteran HC Tuberville after jettisoning o.c. Tony Franklin,
and speedy Tiger defense (only 13 ppg) matches up well against WV?s spread option. TV?
ESPN (First Meeting)
*AIR FORCE 26 - New Mexico 24?We?re sure New Mexico enjoyed a rare
chance to imitate Tom Osborne?s old Nebraska teams when running the ball
down San Diego State?s throat last week. Dominating a capable Air Force
bunch is an entirely different matter, but Lobos also on ascent because OL
jelling and QB situation no longer dire with RS frosh Gruner getting comfy at
controls. Rocky Long?s unorthodox 3-3-5 ?D? might unnerve Falcs? exciting but
green frosh QB Jefferson.
(07-N. MEX. 34-A. Force 31...18-18 A.49/212 N.48/156 N.16/28/1/169 A.11/18/0/110 N.1 A.5)
(07-UNM -6 34-31 06-AFA -13' 24-7 05-Afa +12' 42-24...SR: Air Force 14-10)
Auburn 20 - WEST VIRGINIA 19?Star sr. QB Pat White should be back in
action for West Virginia. Still, TY?s Mountaineer offense was already looking
very mediocre (especially in comparison with prolific strike forces of last few
seasons) before White sat out 17-6 home win over woeful Syracuse on Oct. 11.
Extra week of prep no panacea for wayward Auburn attack. But time enough for
some tweaking by veteran HC Tuberville after jettisoning o.c. Tony Franklin,
and speedy Tiger defense (only 13 ppg) matches up well against WV?s spread option. TV?
ESPN (First Meeting)
*AIR FORCE 26 - New Mexico 24?We?re sure New Mexico enjoyed a rare
chance to imitate Tom Osborne?s old Nebraska teams when running the ball
down San Diego State?s throat last week. Dominating a capable Air Force
bunch is an entirely different matter, but Lobos also on ascent because OL
jelling and QB situation no longer dire with RS frosh Gruner getting comfy at
controls. Rocky Long?s unorthodox 3-3-5 ?D? might unnerve Falcs? exciting but
green frosh QB Jefferson.
(07-N. MEX. 34-A. Force 31...18-18 A.49/212 N.48/156 N.16/28/1/169 A.11/18/0/110 N.1 A.5)
(07-UNM -6 34-31 06-AFA -13' 24-7 05-Afa +12' 42-24...SR: Air Force 14-10)
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HONDO
October 23, 2008
It's not the end of the World. Tampa Bay showed no interest in Hondo's wad-expansion program last night, flopping in the opener to trim the bankroll to 310 trillos.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will take another shot with the Rays - 10 units on the one and only Jimmy Shields.
October 23, 2008
It's not the end of the World. Tampa Bay showed no interest in Hondo's wad-expansion program last night, flopping in the opener to trim the bankroll to 310 trillos.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will take another shot with the Rays - 10 units on the one and only Jimmy Shields.
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MR A
Thursday, October 23, 2008 7:30 p.m. est.
West Virginia Mountaineers -3
Going to be a hard fought ground battle, both teams passing offense has been awful. West Virginia has won all four of their games in Morgantown this season. Take the home team in a close outcome.
Thursday, October 23, 2008 8:00 p.m. est.
New Mexico at Air Force Over - 45
Expect a high scoring battle, New Mexico won the last meeting, 34-31 on October 25 2007 and the Lobos are averaging 25.9 point per game. Boise State is averaging 32.5 point per game. The total has gone over in five of the last 7 meetings.
Thursday, October 23, 2008 7:30 p.m. est.
West Virginia Mountaineers -3
Going to be a hard fought ground battle, both teams passing offense has been awful. West Virginia has won all four of their games in Morgantown this season. Take the home team in a close outcome.
Thursday, October 23, 2008 8:00 p.m. est.
New Mexico at Air Force Over - 45
Expect a high scoring battle, New Mexico won the last meeting, 34-31 on October 25 2007 and the Lobos are averaging 25.9 point per game. Boise State is averaging 32.5 point per game. The total has gone over in five of the last 7 meetings.
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Jimmy The Moose
Game: Dallas Stars at New York Islanders Oct 23 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: New York Islanders
Reason: The Dallas Stars are having trouble on the road and after last night's loss in New Jersey they are off to a 1-3 start away from home. The Stars are 0-6 in their last 6 games played with 0 day rest between games. In their last 8 games, dating back to last season, vs. a team with a losing record the Stars are 2-6. New York is 1-1 on home ice and is the more rested team and that will be a difference in this one. The Islanders are 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings with Dallas and they'll take this one. Play on the New York Islanders +.
Game: Dallas Stars at New York Islanders Oct 23 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: New York Islanders
Reason: The Dallas Stars are having trouble on the road and after last night's loss in New Jersey they are off to a 1-3 start away from home. The Stars are 0-6 in their last 6 games played with 0 day rest between games. In their last 8 games, dating back to last season, vs. a team with a losing record the Stars are 2-6. New York is 1-1 on home ice and is the more rested team and that will be a difference in this one. The Islanders are 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings with Dallas and they'll take this one. Play on the New York Islanders +.
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Brandon Lang
Thursday night winner ....
10 Dime New Mexico
5 Dime West Virginia (Buy 1/2-point down if your book has 3, and be sure to get to only lay a field goal in this game.)
Free pick - Over Phils/Rays (for analysis see daily video.)
Thursday night winner ....
10 Dime New Mexico
5 Dime West Virginia (Buy 1/2-point down if your book has 3, and be sure to get to only lay a field goal in this game.)
Free pick - Over Phils/Rays (for analysis see daily video.)
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Thu, 10/23/08 - 8:00 PMKing Creole | CFB Total
dime bet106 Air Force / 105 New Mexico Over 45.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: 8:00pm ET / Mountain West Conference / NEW MEXICO LOBOS @ AIR FORCE FALCONS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
OU line in this Mountain West battle opened at 47 points. At last look, it was working it's way down to the 45 - 45.5 range. That suits us fine. Try and get in when it bottoms out. Thursday night College Football games in the MOUNTAIN WEST Conference have been a staple since the 2002 season. And these THURSDAY games have seen an average combined point total of 52.3... which is about a touchdown of value compared to tonight's line. We also note that when the game line is 4 or more points, the average total improves to 56.5.
With the Lobos SPANKING the San Diego State Aztecs by a score of 70-7 last week, I decided to do a query in the Playbook database.
In the last 6 years, College teams who scored 70 or more points the previous week have averaged a combined 67.2 PPG (15-4 O/U).
Additional value based on this week's OU line can be found in each team's YTD stats. The average NEW MEXICO LOBO game has seen 49.7 total points scored. The average AIR FORCE FALCON game has seen 49.8 total points. Both team's offenses are actually on recent upticks, as well. Last-3-game offensive averages are HIGHER than YTD comparisons. Lobos: 5-2 O/U last 7. Falcons: 4-1 O/U last 5.
Let's wrap it up with the series history. These two teams are 8-2 O/U versus each other in the last 10 meetings... and 3-1 O/U in the last 4. Average points scored: a whopping 58.6.
Final score: 31-27....
dime bet106 Air Force / 105 New Mexico Over 45.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: 8:00pm ET / Mountain West Conference / NEW MEXICO LOBOS @ AIR FORCE FALCONS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
OU line in this Mountain West battle opened at 47 points. At last look, it was working it's way down to the 45 - 45.5 range. That suits us fine. Try and get in when it bottoms out. Thursday night College Football games in the MOUNTAIN WEST Conference have been a staple since the 2002 season. And these THURSDAY games have seen an average combined point total of 52.3... which is about a touchdown of value compared to tonight's line. We also note that when the game line is 4 or more points, the average total improves to 56.5.
With the Lobos SPANKING the San Diego State Aztecs by a score of 70-7 last week, I decided to do a query in the Playbook database.
In the last 6 years, College teams who scored 70 or more points the previous week have averaged a combined 67.2 PPG (15-4 O/U).
Additional value based on this week's OU line can be found in each team's YTD stats. The average NEW MEXICO LOBO game has seen 49.7 total points scored. The average AIR FORCE FALCON game has seen 49.8 total points. Both team's offenses are actually on recent upticks, as well. Last-3-game offensive averages are HIGHER than YTD comparisons. Lobos: 5-2 O/U last 7. Falcons: 4-1 O/U last 5.
Let's wrap it up with the series history. These two teams are 8-2 O/U versus each other in the last 10 meetings... and 3-1 O/U in the last 4. Average points scored: a whopping 58.6.
Final score: 31-27....
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Thu, 10/23/08 - 7:45 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet104 West Virginia -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 103 Auburn
Analysis:
Not willing to fall into the trap of playing the SEC against other conferences in this particular spot. Auburn doesn't normally travel in non-conference games and they walk into a tough place to play on Thursday night.
West Virginia has won four straight over the SEC and Auburn's Tommy Tuberville is 1-2 versus the Big East in his career.
Have to love that West Virginia is 111-25-4 all-time in October home games and 46-2 since 2002 when winning the turnover battle. With the Tigers undergoing a change in offensive identity - it leaves it wide open for a few turnovers to be created.
This isn't the Auburn and West Virginia teams that the public has been use to seeing over the past few years, but have to like one of the better home teams in America in this spot, as Auburn will wonder why its in West Virginia on Thursday night.
double-dime bet104 West Virginia -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 103 Auburn
Analysis:
Not willing to fall into the trap of playing the SEC against other conferences in this particular spot. Auburn doesn't normally travel in non-conference games and they walk into a tough place to play on Thursday night.
West Virginia has won four straight over the SEC and Auburn's Tommy Tuberville is 1-2 versus the Big East in his career.
Have to love that West Virginia is 111-25-4 all-time in October home games and 46-2 since 2002 when winning the turnover battle. With the Tigers undergoing a change in offensive identity - it leaves it wide open for a few turnovers to be created.
This isn't the Auburn and West Virginia teams that the public has been use to seeing over the past few years, but have to like one of the better home teams in America in this spot, as Auburn will wonder why its in West Virginia on Thursday night.
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Thu, 10/23/08 - 7:45 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side
double-dime bet104 West Virginia -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 103 Auburn
Analysis:
Some people expect this game to be close. I'm not one of those people. Auburn is an absolute mess right now. They fired their offensive coordinator, they have no quarterback and their coach is being rumored to be in line for other jobs. Other than that, things are doing great up on the Plains. I believe the team has given up on the season and will get blown out in this game. Even the defense has stopped playing. Against Arkansas, the Tigers gave up 188 yards on the ground and 416 overall. I look for the West Virginia offense - a unit that's very tough to prepare for - to run all over Auburn with Pat White and Noel Devine. Kodi Burns starts at QB for the Tigers and that's not a good thing. Burns is a terrible passer and will get eaten alive by an underrated Mountaineers defense. The spread says this should be a close game but I say WV turns out the lights on Auburn and wins easily. **2 UNIT PLAY**
double-dime bet104 West Virginia -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 103 Auburn
Analysis:
Some people expect this game to be close. I'm not one of those people. Auburn is an absolute mess right now. They fired their offensive coordinator, they have no quarterback and their coach is being rumored to be in line for other jobs. Other than that, things are doing great up on the Plains. I believe the team has given up on the season and will get blown out in this game. Even the defense has stopped playing. Against Arkansas, the Tigers gave up 188 yards on the ground and 416 overall. I look for the West Virginia offense - a unit that's very tough to prepare for - to run all over Auburn with Pat White and Noel Devine. Kodi Burns starts at QB for the Tigers and that's not a good thing. Burns is a terrible passer and will get eaten alive by an underrated Mountaineers defense. The spread says this should be a close game but I say WV turns out the lights on Auburn and wins easily. **2 UNIT PLAY**
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Thu, 10/23/08 - 7:45 PMBob Majors | CFB Side
double-dime bet103 Auburn -3.0 (-115) BetUS vs 104 West Virginia
Analysis:
West Virgina Mountaineers host the Auburn Tiger in a Thursday evening matchup.
The Tigers have a solid defense and no offense and the Mountaineers have a good offense and no defense.
The Tigers are 9th in the country in scoring defense allowing 13.1 ppg.
Auburn is 6-1 in Thursday night games and are on a 3 game winning streak; 18-7 ATS in their las 25 games in October; and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games; 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on turf; and 1-4 ATS in the last five games overall. They are also 0-4 ATS in the last 4four games following a bye week.
I feel the defense will prevail and Auburn will keep it close. Take the generous points and run to the bank.
double-dime bet103 Auburn -3.0 (-115) BetUS vs 104 West Virginia
Analysis:
West Virgina Mountaineers host the Auburn Tiger in a Thursday evening matchup.
The Tigers have a solid defense and no offense and the Mountaineers have a good offense and no defense.
The Tigers are 9th in the country in scoring defense allowing 13.1 ppg.
Auburn is 6-1 in Thursday night games and are on a 3 game winning streak; 18-7 ATS in their las 25 games in October; and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games; 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on turf; and 1-4 ATS in the last five games overall. They are also 0-4 ATS in the last 4four games following a bye week.
I feel the defense will prevail and Auburn will keep it close. Take the generous points and run to the bank.
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Thu, 10/23/08 - 8:00 PMNick "BookieKiller" Parsons | CFB Side
double-dime bet105 New Mexico 5.0 (-110) Bodog vs 106 Air Force
Analysis: NEW MEXICO ? Air Force has covered four straight in this series but New Mexico did win last season?s match-up straight-up to put an end to the Falcons three consecutive straight-up wins in this series. One of the key advantages for the Lobos in matching up with Air Force is that New Mexico head coach Rocky Long has great knowledge of the option. Even though the Falcons have managed to get the cover in recent meetings with the Lobos, New Mexico actually has done a good job against the Air Force option attack. Offensively, the Lobos certainly got to ?warm up? their attack last week as they scored 70 points in totally dominating San Diego State. While New Mexico comes in off of an easy win, the Falcons barely squeaked by UNLV last week in a one-point non-covering win. Air Force did allow over 400 yards of offense last week and the key was the success of their ground game but that same option attack will not fare as well against the Lobos defense. Also, Air Force has failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times in the week before the Army game. Even though Falcons head coach denies it, the service games do mean a lot to this academy school. Also, the Lobos were able to force a lot of fumbles against the Falcons in last season?s match-up and they will look to disrupt the Air Force offense in the same manner in this season?s match-up. Also, last season we saw dropped passes cost the Lobos a ton of yardage through the air and yet New Mexico still hung on for the win. Additionally, the Falcons first touchdown in that game (among 31 points they scored) was truly a gift after the Lobos fumbled insider their own 20 yard line. The point being that New Mexico?s defense played quite well in last season?s game and this season they have even more team speed! This has been a key to the Lobos defensive success this season and it will be a key to them once again shutting down the Falcons option attack on Thursday night. That will lead to a cover and, quite likely, an outright win for the Lobos!
double-dime bet105 New Mexico 5.0 (-110) Bodog vs 106 Air Force
Analysis: NEW MEXICO ? Air Force has covered four straight in this series but New Mexico did win last season?s match-up straight-up to put an end to the Falcons three consecutive straight-up wins in this series. One of the key advantages for the Lobos in matching up with Air Force is that New Mexico head coach Rocky Long has great knowledge of the option. Even though the Falcons have managed to get the cover in recent meetings with the Lobos, New Mexico actually has done a good job against the Air Force option attack. Offensively, the Lobos certainly got to ?warm up? their attack last week as they scored 70 points in totally dominating San Diego State. While New Mexico comes in off of an easy win, the Falcons barely squeaked by UNLV last week in a one-point non-covering win. Air Force did allow over 400 yards of offense last week and the key was the success of their ground game but that same option attack will not fare as well against the Lobos defense. Also, Air Force has failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times in the week before the Army game. Even though Falcons head coach denies it, the service games do mean a lot to this academy school. Also, the Lobos were able to force a lot of fumbles against the Falcons in last season?s match-up and they will look to disrupt the Air Force offense in the same manner in this season?s match-up. Also, last season we saw dropped passes cost the Lobos a ton of yardage through the air and yet New Mexico still hung on for the win. Additionally, the Falcons first touchdown in that game (among 31 points they scored) was truly a gift after the Lobos fumbled insider their own 20 yard line. The point being that New Mexico?s defense played quite well in last season?s game and this season they have even more team speed! This has been a key to the Lobos defensive success this season and it will be a key to them once again shutting down the Falcons option attack on Thursday night. That will lead to a cover and, quite likely, an outright win for the Lobos!
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Winning Angle Sports
Your Thursday Night NCAA Selections is:
Play on West Virginia (-3) over Auburn*
7:45 P.M. EST Kick-Off
West Virginia has won 8 consecutive games when playing in the month of October and they have also won 14 of the last 16 non-conference games. West Virginia has won 15 of the last 17 home games and they are only allowing 11 points a game on defense at home this season. Meanwhile, Auburn has lost 6 consecutive games against the spread.
Play on West Virginia minus the points on Thursday
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Play on Air Force (-5) over New Mexico*
8:00 P.M. EST Kick-Off
Air Force has won 5 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have also won 5 of the last 6 games coming off a conference road win. Air Force has won 11 of the last 15 games as a favorite and they have also won 5 oft the last 6 games vs. New Mexico at home.
Play on Air Force minus the points on Thursday
Your Thursday Night NCAA Selections is:
Play on West Virginia (-3) over Auburn*
7:45 P.M. EST Kick-Off
West Virginia has won 8 consecutive games when playing in the month of October and they have also won 14 of the last 16 non-conference games. West Virginia has won 15 of the last 17 home games and they are only allowing 11 points a game on defense at home this season. Meanwhile, Auburn has lost 6 consecutive games against the spread.
Play on West Virginia minus the points on Thursday
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play on Air Force (-5) over New Mexico*
8:00 P.M. EST Kick-Off
Air Force has won 5 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have also won 5 of the last 6 games coming off a conference road win. Air Force has won 11 of the last 15 games as a favorite and they have also won 5 oft the last 6 games vs. New Mexico at home.
Play on Air Force minus the points on Thursday