Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 200,000♦ West Virginia
2. 50,000♦ Rays
1. West Virginia- Your average bettor loves to talk about how dominant the SEC is over the Big East, how they're faster, stronger, and smarter. While that may be true to some extent (recruiting-wise, the SEC does get the pick of litter), you don't handicap a game by talking about the team's conference, you handicap match ups. And the fact is, this is a flawed Auburn team, playing in Morgantown, against a Mountaineers squad welcoming back their best player in Pat White.
Speaking of the Tigers, they're just 4-3 SU and a dismal 1-6 ATS this season. They're last win came over a very suspect Tennessee team, and their only road win of the season was a laughable 3-2 win at Mississippi State in mid-September. Their offense is sputtering because coach Tuberville keeps shuffling his signal callers. All signs point to sophomore Kodi Burns starting, but either way, which ever QB starts for the Tigers will struggle against the quirky 3-3-5 defense the Moutaineers use (Burns has thrown 4 INTs and 0 TDs this season). Note, WVU allows just under 12 ppg on 293 yards of total offense at home this season!
Also, from a motivational standpoint, this is a HUGE game for West Virginia, played before a raucous sell-out crowd in Morgantown, in what is their biggest home game of the season thus far. Auburn meanwhile is in the midst of a 2-game losing streak, and there's only so much their vaunted defense can do as long as their offense continues to struggle (just 208 total yards at Vanderbilt in their last road game).
Finally, there's the Pat White factor. We saw how this WVU offense struggled against Syracuse, scoring only 17 points and failing to cover. His return off the bye week is a incredible boost for the Mountaineers offense, which is ultra-efficient with him at the helm (72% completion rate, 9 passing TDs vs 1 INT, 2 rushing TDs on a 6.1 yard/carry average)! Guys, Pat White IS the Moutaineers offense, and people can talk about the SEC and the Tigers defense all they want, but White would excel in an conference on the planet, period.
Bottom line, Auburn cannot stick with West Virginia as long as White is on the field. Both teams live off their stout defenses, but the difference here is WVU can actually score points, especially at home where they average 29 ppg (as compared to the Tigers 8 ppg on the road)! People can cling to their SEC beliefs all they want, but I'll take the better team, with the better offense, in a prime time sellout home game any day.
Take West Virginia over Auburn as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Rays- I delivered with my 100K Top Play winner on the Phillies yesterday over the Rays 3-2... So what has changed since then? The pitching match up, that's what! I told you not to over think last night's match up, Cole Hamels was the better pitcher and he would deliver 7 innings of solid work, at which point the Phillies bullpen would seal the deal, and that's exactly what happened. But this time around though, things are going to be nearly as simple for Philadelphia and here's why:
Say what you will about Brett Myers surge after getting sent down to the minors, which was impressive. However, its become clear to me that he peaked too early, and now has reverted back to the same inconsistent ways that's plagued him throughout his career. He maybe 2-0 this postseason, but that stat is decieving, because he's posted an ugly 5.25 ERA over that span. Not only that, but Myers has been a disaster on the road, going 3-8 with a 6.21 ERA this season, and even worse, the Phillies are just 5-14 in his last 19 road starts... Is this really the pitcher you want to back in a critical World Series Game 2 on the road?!
At the other end of the spectrum lies James Shields, who's been a beast at home this season, going 10-4 with a 2.74 ERA. But its not just that, as the Rays are 15-7 in his last 22 starts, and even more importantly a sterling 20-7 in his last 27 home starts! Don't let the fact he lost both starts against Boston fool you, we're talking about a pitcher who given up 3 runs or less in 18 of his last 22 games! Look for him to deliver in this critical bounce back spot for the Rays tonight.
Finally, yesterday the Phillies enjoyed a solid edge at the plate against a lefty. But with two righties squaring off tonight, the two offenses are much closer this time around. Tampa loves hitting righties at home, batting .277 against them and averaging a hearty 5.1 runs per game against them this season. Not only that, but their an outstanding 42-14 against righty starters at home. The Phillies meanwhile are just 29-27 against righties on the road. In the end, the Rays get the match up they want, in a game they most certainly must win, in order to keep this series competitive.
Take the Rays behind Shields over the Phillies and Myers in Game 2 of the World Series tonight.
