Service Plays Thursday 7/17/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
- Start date
- Apr 7, 2008
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HONDO
Hondo, who extended his unbeaten streak in AL- Star games to 12 early yesterday morning, gave some back yesterday when Anthony Affrunti, the Post's Puny Pony Picker (if that darn diet ever works) swung and missed with Rio Mistico in the fifth at Belmont, the Rio Mistico-Blazing Dynamo-Al Basha exacta box and Cannonball in the eighth at Del Mar. The whiff trimmed the earnings to 740 bae zas.
Today, Hondo is climbing aboard the New York Mets bandwagon with a 10-unit Santana play.
Hondo, who extended his unbeaten streak in AL- Star games to 12 early yesterday morning, gave some back yesterday when Anthony Affrunti, the Post's Puny Pony Picker (if that darn diet ever works) swung and missed with Rio Mistico in the fifth at Belmont, the Rio Mistico-Blazing Dynamo-Al Basha exacta box and Cannonball in the eighth at Del Mar. The whiff trimmed the earnings to 740 bae zas.
Today, Hondo is climbing aboard the New York Mets bandwagon with a 10-unit Santana play.
- Apr 7, 2008
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JIMMY THE MOOSE Comp
Game: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles Jul 17 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Reason: With a 21-10 record over their last 31 games the Tigers have clawed their way back to the 500 mark. Detroit is 22-6 in their last 28 games as a favorite. In their last 10 games as a road favorite they are 9-1. Detroit is 44-20 in their last 64 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers have won 4 of Rogers last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Baltimore has lost 7 of their last 8 games. The are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home dog. The Orioles are 5-14 in their last 19 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers have won the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Detroit Tigers -.
Game: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles Jul 17 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Reason: With a 21-10 record over their last 31 games the Tigers have clawed their way back to the 500 mark. Detroit is 22-6 in their last 28 games as a favorite. In their last 10 games as a road favorite they are 9-1. Detroit is 44-20 in their last 64 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers have won 4 of Rogers last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Baltimore has lost 7 of their last 8 games. The are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home dog. The Orioles are 5-14 in their last 19 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers have won the last 5 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Detroit Tigers -.
- Apr 7, 2008
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TOM FREESE Comp
Game: New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Jul 17 2008 7:10PM
Prediction: New York Mets
Reason: New York is 10-1 their last 11 games and they are 7-0 their last 7 games vs. losing teams. The Mets are 20-7 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 46-21 off a day off. Johann Santana is 6-2 in Game 1 of a series. Cincinnati is 26-58 their last 84 home games as dogs of $110 to $150. The Reds are 2-6 in the last 8 starts made by Johnny Cueto has an underdog and they are 2-6 their last 8 games vs. the Mets. PLAY ON NY METS (Santana vs. Cueto)
Game: New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Jul 17 2008 7:10PM
Prediction: New York Mets
Reason: New York is 10-1 their last 11 games and they are 7-0 their last 7 games vs. losing teams. The Mets are 20-7 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 46-21 off a day off. Johann Santana is 6-2 in Game 1 of a series. Cincinnati is 26-58 their last 84 home games as dogs of $110 to $150. The Reds are 2-6 in the last 8 starts made by Johnny Cueto has an underdog and they are 2-6 their last 8 games vs. the Mets. PLAY ON NY METS (Santana vs. Cueto)
- Apr 7, 2008
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GAME: San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Jul 17, 2008 8:15PM
EXPERT: Alex Smart
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: under
REASON FOR PICK: The 'Under' has held a distinct advantage in the first game back after the All-Star break, managing a highly profitable 57-33-5 record since the 2000 season. Breakdown per year 8-6-1 Under in 2000 9-6 Under in 2001 7-5-1 Under in 2002 8-6 Under in 2003 11-0-1 Under in 2004 8-4-1 Under in 2005 3-4 Under in 2006 3-2-1 Under in 2007 That's seven winning seasons out of eight. Coincidence? ...... Maybe and maybe not. When I notice an obvious trend, such as the Under going 57-33-5 the day after the All-Star Break from 2000-2007, I always try and determine it's cause. Is there a logical reason for the trend? Or, could it be random coincidence or an anomaly. Don't forget that if you flip a coin enough times, you'll inevitably get some runs of 54-31 for both heads and tails. In this case, I felt that that I was looking at more than just pure coincidence. When searching for why this may be the case, my first initial thought was that the Under probably had done so well due to the fact that teams were often able to shuffle their starting rotation for the best match-ups or going with their #1 starter, unless he had just pitched in the All-Star Game. However, I quickly dismissed these lines of thought as the linemakers would have already factored the starting pitchers into their lines and adjusted them lower accordingly, especially with the aces on the mound. Instead, I concluded that the Under probably had been so profitable due to the fact that the hitters must become somewhat rusty after having a few days off. Starting pitchers are used to having numerous days off in between starts. Batters, on the other hand, rarely have consecutive days off. Some, of course, aren't affected by the layoff but others clearly are. The same 'Under' tendencies appear for teams that play their first game a day later than other's after the All-Star break. I have the numbers for these, tilts and will possibly release a big play if the all the factors look right. With those under tendencies on our side, I have isolated a situation that sets up nicely to stay on the low side of the number.
The light hitting San Diego Padres visit the St.Louis Cardinals in pitcher friendly Busch Stadium this Thursday night. Kyle Lohse(11-2,3.39 ERA) the Cards starting hurler is in red hot form , and in his L/5 starts ,has garnered a 3-0 record along with a tight 2.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP . He has been particularly tough on opposing offenses this season at home , where in 11 starts he is 5-1, along with a stingy 2.75 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Meanwhile the visiting San Diego Padres , will send the ace of their staff Jake Peavy ( 7-5,2.47 ERA) to the hill in response. In his L6 starts he has allowed a total of 7 ER's , and Im expecting another stingy performance in this spot against a Cards team that has only averaged 4.1 RPG at home this season. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 10-1-1 in Padres last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 9-2 in Padres last 11 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 . Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Play Under
EXPERT: Alex Smart
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: under
REASON FOR PICK: The 'Under' has held a distinct advantage in the first game back after the All-Star break, managing a highly profitable 57-33-5 record since the 2000 season. Breakdown per year 8-6-1 Under in 2000 9-6 Under in 2001 7-5-1 Under in 2002 8-6 Under in 2003 11-0-1 Under in 2004 8-4-1 Under in 2005 3-4 Under in 2006 3-2-1 Under in 2007 That's seven winning seasons out of eight. Coincidence? ...... Maybe and maybe not. When I notice an obvious trend, such as the Under going 57-33-5 the day after the All-Star Break from 2000-2007, I always try and determine it's cause. Is there a logical reason for the trend? Or, could it be random coincidence or an anomaly. Don't forget that if you flip a coin enough times, you'll inevitably get some runs of 54-31 for both heads and tails. In this case, I felt that that I was looking at more than just pure coincidence. When searching for why this may be the case, my first initial thought was that the Under probably had done so well due to the fact that teams were often able to shuffle their starting rotation for the best match-ups or going with their #1 starter, unless he had just pitched in the All-Star Game. However, I quickly dismissed these lines of thought as the linemakers would have already factored the starting pitchers into their lines and adjusted them lower accordingly, especially with the aces on the mound. Instead, I concluded that the Under probably had been so profitable due to the fact that the hitters must become somewhat rusty after having a few days off. Starting pitchers are used to having numerous days off in between starts. Batters, on the other hand, rarely have consecutive days off. Some, of course, aren't affected by the layoff but others clearly are. The same 'Under' tendencies appear for teams that play their first game a day later than other's after the All-Star break. I have the numbers for these, tilts and will possibly release a big play if the all the factors look right. With those under tendencies on our side, I have isolated a situation that sets up nicely to stay on the low side of the number.
The light hitting San Diego Padres visit the St.Louis Cardinals in pitcher friendly Busch Stadium this Thursday night. Kyle Lohse(11-2,3.39 ERA) the Cards starting hurler is in red hot form , and in his L/5 starts ,has garnered a 3-0 record along with a tight 2.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP . He has been particularly tough on opposing offenses this season at home , where in 11 starts he is 5-1, along with a stingy 2.75 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Meanwhile the visiting San Diego Padres , will send the ace of their staff Jake Peavy ( 7-5,2.47 ERA) to the hill in response. In his L6 starts he has allowed a total of 7 ER's , and Im expecting another stingy performance in this spot against a Cards team that has only averaged 4.1 RPG at home this season. Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 10-1-1 in Padres last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 9-2 in Padres last 11 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 . Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Play Under
- Apr 7, 2008
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Matt Fargo:
GAME: San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Jul 17, 2008 8:15PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: St. Louis
REASON FOR PICK: St. Louis didn?t exactly leave the first half on a solid run but it remains in position to hang around with the Cubs in the National League Central. The Cardinals trail Chicago by 4.5 games and the goal right now is to take care of business at home where they are 26-21 on the season. The offense put up two 11-run games before the break and it is hitting .283 over the last 10 games. St. Louis has won 27 of the last 36 meetings against the Padres at home.
San Diego started the season slow and has never recovered, going 7-20 over its last 27 games. The Padres have been bad at both home and the road but away games have really taken their toll as they are 14-28 on the season. The offense is to blame as the bats are hitting only .246 on the season and their 3.7 rpg is the second worst average in all of baseball. San Diego is just 15-39 in its last 54 games against a team with a winning record including a horrid 8-23 mark on the road.
You take a look at this number and see Jake Peavy next to it and it looks like easy money. While that may have been the case over the last couple season, it is not the case this year. While he has put together a 1.45 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in nine home starts, in six road outings, he has a 4.41 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Padres have won three of those games, mostly due to generous run support. At this stage however, don?t expect that. He has a 6.18 ERA over his last five starts against the Cardinals.
I?m not exactly sure what happened to Kyle Lohse this season, but whatever he did in the offseason should be kept secret. He has been outstanding following disastrous seasons the last two years. After posting a 2.36 ERA in six April starts, it looked as though he came back to reality, allowing 19 runs in his first three May starts. But he went right back at it, posting a 2.25 ERA over his last 11 starts with nine of those being quality outings and one falling short due to lack of innings. He now faces the anemic Padres offense. Play St. Louis Cardinals 1.5 Units
GAME: San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Jul 17, 2008 8:15PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: St. Louis
REASON FOR PICK: St. Louis didn?t exactly leave the first half on a solid run but it remains in position to hang around with the Cubs in the National League Central. The Cardinals trail Chicago by 4.5 games and the goal right now is to take care of business at home where they are 26-21 on the season. The offense put up two 11-run games before the break and it is hitting .283 over the last 10 games. St. Louis has won 27 of the last 36 meetings against the Padres at home.
San Diego started the season slow and has never recovered, going 7-20 over its last 27 games. The Padres have been bad at both home and the road but away games have really taken their toll as they are 14-28 on the season. The offense is to blame as the bats are hitting only .246 on the season and their 3.7 rpg is the second worst average in all of baseball. San Diego is just 15-39 in its last 54 games against a team with a winning record including a horrid 8-23 mark on the road.
You take a look at this number and see Jake Peavy next to it and it looks like easy money. While that may have been the case over the last couple season, it is not the case this year. While he has put together a 1.45 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in nine home starts, in six road outings, he has a 4.41 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Padres have won three of those games, mostly due to generous run support. At this stage however, don?t expect that. He has a 6.18 ERA over his last five starts against the Cardinals.
I?m not exactly sure what happened to Kyle Lohse this season, but whatever he did in the offseason should be kept secret. He has been outstanding following disastrous seasons the last two years. After posting a 2.36 ERA in six April starts, it looked as though he came back to reality, allowing 19 runs in his first three May starts. But he went right back at it, posting a 2.25 ERA over his last 11 starts with nine of those being quality outings and one falling short due to lack of innings. He now faces the anemic Padres offense. Play St. Louis Cardinals 1.5 Units
- Apr 7, 2008
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The British Open Preview
07/16/2008 - By: Lee Kostroski
My run on the tour has been pretty solid as of late. After nailing last week?s winner at the John Deere Classic (Kenny Perry at +700), I have now picked the outright winner in two of the last four events. My other winner was at the Travelers (the weekend of June 21st & 22nd) when Stewart Cink cashed in at +1400. A week following the Travelers my long shot, Woody Austin +5000, was leading with two holes remaining but bogeyed 17 & 18 and finished second. Now it?s time to see if I can keep up the hot streak and make a big run at the British Open this weekend.
This year?s British Open (now simply called ?The Open Championship?) is being held at Royal Birkdale in England. This with be the ninth time Birkdale has hosted The Open Championship. If you?re looking for a ?nationality? edge we might have one here. In fact, the only players to win here were either from the United States or Australia. The winners here from Australia are Peter Thomson (twice) and Ian Baker Finch. The Americans that hoisted the Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale were Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson and most recently Mark O?Meara in 1998. As per usual, the weather will be a factor here. The forecast calls for cloudy skies for the most part and 15 to 20 MPH winds from now through Sunday.
This year?s field has been ?watered down? a bit with the absence, or possible absence of a few top notch players. Last year?s Open Championship winner, Padraig Harrington, had his practice round cut short due to an injured wrist. His start on Thursday is in jeopardy. Kenny Perry, who already has three wins on tour this year, has decided to skip The Open Championship and play in this weekend?s U.S. Bank Open in Milwaukee. And, of course, the #1 player in the world is on the shelf. With Tiger on the sidelines, the favorite this week is Sergio Garcia at +800. I can?t argue with Garcia as the favorite here. He has finished in the Top 10 at the British Open in five of his last seven starts. However, I think the odds are off here. Tabbing Garcia as a favorite is one thing. Making him a distinct favorite with odds at only +800 is enough to make me stay away from him this weekend.
My first pick this weekend comes from the ?nationality? category I spoke of earlier. I?m siding with Aussie Geoff Ogilvy at +2500. Many people don?t realize how good this guy is. Ogilvy is currently ranked third in the World Golf Ranking behind only Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. He has been fantastic on the big stage. In his last 13 Major appearances, Ogilvy has one win, six top 10 finishes and nine top 25 finishes. He has missed only one cut during that time. This year he has finished in the top 10 in six of the ten cuts he has made including a 9th place finish at the U.S. Open. Of course being from Australia gives him a leg up at Birkdale, not really but what the heck?
I also like Stewart Cink at +3300. I know I?ve been on him a few times already this year, but he has been good to me including a win at +1400 a few weeks ago. He has simply been playing great golf for the majority of the year making 14 cuts in the 15 tourneys he has appeared in. Not only that, he has finished in the top three in five of those outings including a win at the Travelers in June. He is fourth in the Fed Ex Cup standings and sixth in the World Golf Rankings. He has done fairly well at The Open Championship as of late finishing sixth last year and 14th in 2004. Cink is a bargain at +3300.
While his odds aren?t the greatest, I?m grabbing Ernie Els at +1400 as my final selection. Els has the best British Open resume in the entire field. He seems to always play well in this tourney. In his last eight British Opens, Els has finished in the top four a remarkable six times. His other two starts he finished 18th and 34th. Going back even further, Els has eleven top 11 career finishes at the British. He hasn?t been great in 2008 with just two top 10 finishes, however his track record in this Championship gives him the nod.
Many have stated there should be an asterisk next to this year?s champion because Tiger is not in the field. That?s hogwash. Despite the fact that the #1 player in the world who has finished first or second at seven of the last eight Major Championships is not here, someone will still have to go out, play well and win this thing. After Sunday, someone will have their name engraved on the Claret Jug and it won?t say, ?Tiger was not here? next to it
07/16/2008 - By: Lee Kostroski
My run on the tour has been pretty solid as of late. After nailing last week?s winner at the John Deere Classic (Kenny Perry at +700), I have now picked the outright winner in two of the last four events. My other winner was at the Travelers (the weekend of June 21st & 22nd) when Stewart Cink cashed in at +1400. A week following the Travelers my long shot, Woody Austin +5000, was leading with two holes remaining but bogeyed 17 & 18 and finished second. Now it?s time to see if I can keep up the hot streak and make a big run at the British Open this weekend.
This year?s British Open (now simply called ?The Open Championship?) is being held at Royal Birkdale in England. This with be the ninth time Birkdale has hosted The Open Championship. If you?re looking for a ?nationality? edge we might have one here. In fact, the only players to win here were either from the United States or Australia. The winners here from Australia are Peter Thomson (twice) and Ian Baker Finch. The Americans that hoisted the Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale were Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson and most recently Mark O?Meara in 1998. As per usual, the weather will be a factor here. The forecast calls for cloudy skies for the most part and 15 to 20 MPH winds from now through Sunday.
This year?s field has been ?watered down? a bit with the absence, or possible absence of a few top notch players. Last year?s Open Championship winner, Padraig Harrington, had his practice round cut short due to an injured wrist. His start on Thursday is in jeopardy. Kenny Perry, who already has three wins on tour this year, has decided to skip The Open Championship and play in this weekend?s U.S. Bank Open in Milwaukee. And, of course, the #1 player in the world is on the shelf. With Tiger on the sidelines, the favorite this week is Sergio Garcia at +800. I can?t argue with Garcia as the favorite here. He has finished in the Top 10 at the British Open in five of his last seven starts. However, I think the odds are off here. Tabbing Garcia as a favorite is one thing. Making him a distinct favorite with odds at only +800 is enough to make me stay away from him this weekend.
My first pick this weekend comes from the ?nationality? category I spoke of earlier. I?m siding with Aussie Geoff Ogilvy at +2500. Many people don?t realize how good this guy is. Ogilvy is currently ranked third in the World Golf Ranking behind only Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. He has been fantastic on the big stage. In his last 13 Major appearances, Ogilvy has one win, six top 10 finishes and nine top 25 finishes. He has missed only one cut during that time. This year he has finished in the top 10 in six of the ten cuts he has made including a 9th place finish at the U.S. Open. Of course being from Australia gives him a leg up at Birkdale, not really but what the heck?
I also like Stewart Cink at +3300. I know I?ve been on him a few times already this year, but he has been good to me including a win at +1400 a few weeks ago. He has simply been playing great golf for the majority of the year making 14 cuts in the 15 tourneys he has appeared in. Not only that, he has finished in the top three in five of those outings including a win at the Travelers in June. He is fourth in the Fed Ex Cup standings and sixth in the World Golf Rankings. He has done fairly well at The Open Championship as of late finishing sixth last year and 14th in 2004. Cink is a bargain at +3300.
While his odds aren?t the greatest, I?m grabbing Ernie Els at +1400 as my final selection. Els has the best British Open resume in the entire field. He seems to always play well in this tourney. In his last eight British Opens, Els has finished in the top four a remarkable six times. His other two starts he finished 18th and 34th. Going back even further, Els has eleven top 11 career finishes at the British. He hasn?t been great in 2008 with just two top 10 finishes, however his track record in this Championship gives him the nod.
Many have stated there should be an asterisk next to this year?s champion because Tiger is not in the field. That?s hogwash. Despite the fact that the #1 player in the world who has finished first or second at seven of the last eight Major Championships is not here, someone will still have to go out, play well and win this thing. After Sunday, someone will have their name engraved on the Claret Jug and it won?t say, ?Tiger was not here? next to it
62-35 L97, Yesterday 2-0 (MIL Brewers"W",STL Cardinals"W")
- Apr 7, 2008
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Computer Plays
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Time Game Selections
7:05 p.m. Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
(L) Kenny Rogers (6-6) vs. (L) Garrett Olson (6-4) Baltimore Orioles -110
8:15 p.m. San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
(R) Jake Peavy (7-5) vs. (R) Kyle Lohse (11-2) St. Louis Cardinals -125
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Time Game Selections
7:05 p.m. Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
(L) Kenny Rogers (6-6) vs. (L) Garrett Olson (6-4) Baltimore Orioles -110
8:15 p.m. San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
(R) Jake Peavy (7-5) vs. (R) Kyle Lohse (11-2) St. Louis Cardinals -125
- Apr 7, 2008
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VEGAS EXPERTS
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Thursday, July 17th, 9:05 PM ET
Rockies? starter Ubaldo Jiminez has been particularly sharp of late (1.86 ERA L3 starts), particularly at home where he?s won his last two by a combined 15-2 margin. He?ll be countered by lefty Paul Maholm and the good news there for Colorado fans is that their team averages a healthy 5.2 runs/game vs. southpaws. Pittsburgh is an atrocious 4-22 on the road after giving up 9+ runs in their last game.
Play on: Colorado
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Thursday, July 17th, 9:05 PM ET
Rockies? starter Ubaldo Jiminez has been particularly sharp of late (1.86 ERA L3 starts), particularly at home where he?s won his last two by a combined 15-2 margin. He?ll be countered by lefty Paul Maholm and the good news there for Colorado fans is that their team averages a healthy 5.2 runs/game vs. southpaws. Pittsburgh is an atrocious 4-22 on the road after giving up 9+ runs in their last game.
Play on: Colorado