Ben Burns
BUFFALO
Game: Bowling Green vs. Buffalo Game Time: 3/4/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Buffalo Reason: I'm laying the points with BUFFALO. Its been a tough year for the Bulls as they enter tonight's game with an ugly 9-18 overall record. Things could have been a lot better though and the Bulls have been a lot more competitive than their record indicates. Of the their last 14 losses, 10 have been by 10 points or less and three were in overtime. In eight of their last 14 losses, the Bulls have held second-half leads. They also suffered back-to-back double-overtime losses to Western Michigan and Central Michigan. Though only 2-11 in the MAC, only two of their regulation losses have been by more than 10 points. Tonight represents a rare winnable game as Bowling Green is the only other team in the Mac East with a record which is below 500. Tonight's also an extra "special" game. Not only are the Bulls playing with "revenge" but this is their home finale, along with "Senior Day" for senior forward Andrew Atman. The final game comes at Ohio (18-10) making this by far their best chance at a victory over a Mac East opponent. I expect the Bulls, who beat the Falcons here by eight last season and 14 in 2006, to make the most of the opportunity. They catch the Falcons in a good "letdown" spot as they have a big showdown with Miami Ohio on deck and are coming off an upset over nationally ranked Kent State. Note that the Falcons are just 3-11 SU the past three seasons when coming off a win over a conference opponent while Buffalo is 7-4 ATS on the season when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. I feel that this game will mean more to the Bulls and I expect them to be the "hungrier" team. Look for them to salvage some pride by closing out their home schedule with a win and cover, improving to 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. *MAC Conference GOM
OHIO STATE
Game: Purdue vs. Ohio State Game Time: 3/4/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Ohio State Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. The public has gotten pretty down on the Buckeyes, due to a recent tough stretch. However, a closer look shows that they've primarily won the games that they were "supposed to win" and that they've been highly competitive in the majority of the others. On 1/19, they went into Tennessee, one of the toughest venues in the country, and stayed within five points of the Volunteers. They followed that up by beating up on both Illinois and Minnesota at home and then doing the same to Penn State on the road. Back to back road games were too much and they lost by five at revenge-minded Iowa (they beat Iowa by more than 30 earlier) next time out. The Buckeyes bounced back to thump Michigan in their next game, before losing a close one vs. Indiana. Next, they won big at Northwestern. Once again, back to back road games proved to be too much for them, as they lost by 10 vs. revenge-minded Michigan. Next, they played both Wisconsin and Indiana (on the road) very tough, losing by three and five points. In their last game, again playing the second of back to back road games, they were beaten badly at revenge-minded Minnesota. The point that I am trying to make is that people have the perception that they the Buckeyes are playing poorly. However, the only times that they've truly played poorly in all of 2008 have come when they've been playing the second of back to back road games, all of which happened to come against teams which were playing with "revenge" from a previous loss. They're obviously not in that situation here. Rather, they find themselves as the team playing with "revenge" and as slight home favorites, a role in which they have excelled. Indeed, the Buckeyes are 10-4 SU/ATS the last 14 times that they were listed as home favorites of three points or less. During the same stretch, the Boilermakers were just 3-12 SU/ATS when listed as road underdogs of three points or less. They've also lost seven straight games here and are just 3-15 ATS the last 18 in this series. Look for the Buckeyes to salvage some pride as they avenge the earlier loss and continue their homecourt domination in this series. *Annihilator
NBA
SACRAMENTO
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 3/4/2008 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Sacramento Kings Reason: I'm taking the points with SACRAMENTO. The Lakers have finally cooled off a little, going 1-3 ATS their last four games, including an outright loss in their most recent road game. On the other hand, the Kings are going the other way as they snapped their 4-game losing skid with a momentum-building double-digit victory in their last game. I say "momentum-building" as they rallied all the way back from a 20 point halftime deficit. That's no real surprise though as the four losses all came on the road while the victory came here at Arco Arena, where they have been a much better team for years and where they are currently playing very well. Indeed, Sunday's win brought them to 8-1 (7-2 ATS) their last nine games here and 10-2 their last 12. Despite a slow start here this season (due to injuries) the Kings can still finish above 500 here for the season, which provides them with additional motivation. As coach Reggie Theus had to say: "It would be a significant goal of ours to reach that (winning record at home) and I think something that we can build on even for next year in terms of what was expected of us this year and where we're headed." The Kings lost the last time they hosted the Lakers. However, they're still 6-3 SU/ATS the last nine series meetings here with one of the losses coming by only four points. Its also worth noting that the Kings are a terrific 13-3 ATS the last 16 times they were underdogs of six points or less, winning 12 of those game outright. Conversely, the Lakers are 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were favored by six points or less and they're just 5-11 ATS the last 16 times they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 41-61-2 ATS in that role the past decade. Kobe Bryant will get his points. However, he's not likely to get 50+ again as Ron Artest is a former NBA Defensive Player of the Year. Pau Gasol is going to get his too. Although all with the Grizzlies, its interesting to note that Gasol is 0-10 lifetime here. Knowing that they'll be facing the Lakers at LA in less than a week, and three more times to close out the season, look for the Kings to continue their excellent recent homecourt play tonight. *Pacific Division GOM
NHL
ST LOUIS BLUES
