BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
MORGAN STATE
Game: Morgan State vs. Virginia Tech Game Time: 3/19/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Morgan State Reason: I'm taking the points with MORGAN STATE. While neither team is thrilled to be here, I feel that Morgan State is the 'happier' of the two clubs. The Bears expected to reach the NCAA Tournament but were upset in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference championship by Coppin State.The Hokies, who lost a pair of heartbreakers down the stretch, hoped to receive an at large invitation. It didn't happen and they're feeling 'snubbed' as a result. With that mindset, I expect it to be difficult to bounce back and be expected to beat a team by more than 17 points. The Bears are well coached as Bozeman, the MEAC's coach of the year, led Cal to the NCAAs three times. Good coaching is important when trying to motivate a team in this situation and I expect Bozeman to be able to rally his troops. He was quoted as saying: "I keep encouraging them that there are not a lot of teams that still play, 22 wins is a great season and hopefully we can add to that." NCAA or NIT, the Bears are still in the Division I postseason for the first time in school history, making this a big deal for them. Note that Morgan State is 15-2 its last 17 games and the two losses came by just three combined points. The Bears also played some quality non-conference opponents tough, as they lost by only four at both Connecticut and Miami while losing by eight at Seton Hall. The Hokies are an up and coming team and they've certainly got some talent. However, with coach Greenberg calling the selection committee: "certifiably insane," I expect there to be some distraction, as the deflated players think about "what might have been." Facing a Morgan State squad which has allowed less than 70 points in eight straight games, look for the Hokies to have their hands full, falling to 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as home favorites of greater than a dozen points.
*NIT Opening RD GOY
MORGAN STATE
NBA
NEW ORLEANS
Game: Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Hornets Game Time: 3/19/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: New Orleans Hornets Reason: I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Rockets streak finally came to an end last night. When teams are involved in such an extended winning streak like that, they're on a real emotional high the entire time. The longer the streak, the harder they typically "crash" (experience an emotional letdown) after the streak comes to an end. I expect that to be the case here. The Hornets, who beat Chicago by 11 points last time out, lost twice to the Rockets during "the streak." That's worth noting as we find them at 19-11-1 ATS the last 31 times that they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're also 20-10-1 ATS the last 31 times they were coming off a double-digit victory. The Hornets, who had last night off, rallied from a double-digit deficit to beat the Bulls last time out. Look for them to build off that effort as they earn an important victory over their division rival this evening.
CLEVELAND
Game: Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Game Time: 3/19/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Cavs will have major payback on their minds as the Pistons embarrassed them 109-74 at Detroit back in November. The Cavs are a different team now though and they're playing with a lot more confidence. They're also playing on their homecourt after having had last night off, while catching the Pistons off a game vs. Denver last night. Note that the Cavs are 65-43 SU the past three seasons when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting and that they're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three series meetings here at Cleveland. Looking back further and we find them at 9-3 ATS the last 12 times these teams met here. Addtionally, note the Lebron left in the second quarter of the earlier game. Despite the November loss, the Cavs are also a profitable 33-19-3 ATS during that stretch when facing a divisional opponent. I expect Lebron and co. to view this as a "statement game" and for them to deliver a huge effort.
INDIANA
Game: Charlotte Bobcats vs. Indiana Pacers Game Time: 3/19/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Indiana Pacers Reason: I'm laying the points with INDIANA. If it wasn't completely "official" already, the Bobcats should have lost all hope of making the playoffs on Monday. Playing a "must win" game against Memphis, the team which had the fewest wins in the West, the Bobcats were outscored 56-30 in the second half. They're now five games behind eighth-place Atlanta and they've got three other teams in between them. Coach Sam Vincent described the Bobcats as: "out of gas." That's no surprise considering that this evening's game will be their sixth straight on the road. Afterwards, they return home for one game (vs. Miami) before immediately heading out to the West Coast for four games. After returning home from that trip, they'll play a home and home series against the Raptors, sandwiched by a game vs. the Cavs. In other words, they have no hope of making the playoffs. The players know this and I expect it to translate into a poor defensive effort tonight. That should spell trouble against an Indiana team which is still very much alive in the playoff race and which has scored 110 or more points in three of its last four games. The Pacers, who are two games ahead of the Bobcats and who have a signficantly easier remaining schedule, come off a momentum-building double-digit win over the Knicks. Mike Dunleavy scored 36 points and Danny Granger added 26 with 11 rebounds. While Indiana's last six victories have all come by a minimum of seven points, Charlotte's last six losses have all come by a minimum of eight points. Look for the Pacers to put up big points once again, avenging a pair of earlier losses at Charlotte and improving to 19-9 ATS the last 28 times they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range.
OVER pacers/bobcats
Game: Charlotte Bobcats vs. Indiana Pacers Game Time: 3/19/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Indiana and Charlotte to finish OVER the total. If it wasn't completely "official" already, the Bobcats should have lost all hope of making the playoffs on Monday. Playing a "must win" game against Memphis, the team which had the fewest wins in the West, the Bobcats were outscored 56-30 in the second half. They're now five games behind eighth-place Atlanta and they've got three other teams in between them. Coach Sam Vincent described the Bobcats as: "out of gas." That's no surprise considering that this evening's game will be their sixth straight on the road. Afterwards, they return home for one game (vs. Miami) before immediately heading out to the West Coast for four games. After returning home from that trip, they'll play a home and home series against the Raptors, sandwiched by a game vs. the Cavs. In other words, they have no hope of making the playoffs. The players know this and I expect it to translate into a poor defensive effort tonight. They should be better offensively than they have been recently though, as the Pacers allow a whopping 105.7 points per game. The Pacers always like to push the tempo and they'll definitely be looking to do so against a road-weary opponent. The Pacers have seen the OVER go 7-2-1 their last 10 games, scoring 110 or more points in three of their last four. Additionally, they've seen the OVER go 15-7-1 the last 23 times they played a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater, including 8-2 in 10 home games with a total of 210 or greater this season. Meanwhile, we also find the OVER at 4-0 this season when the Bobcats have played a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater. Its also worth noting that the Bobcats have seen the OVER go 37-20-1 (65%) the past three seasons after having lost three or more consecutive games, including an 11-5-1 mark this season. Look for those numbers to improve with defense becoming a forgotten word for the evening.
*Blue Chip
OVER Pacers/Bobcats
SONICS
Game: Phoenix Suns vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 3/19/2008 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics Reason: I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. This is a very tough spot for the Suns to be laying this many points. Not only are they coming off a late win at Portland last night but they've got a trio of huge games (Boston, Houston, Detroit) on deck. In other words, it will be easy to look past the lowly Sonics. That will prove costly though as, despite losing SU, the Sonics have played the Suns tough in all three of this season's previous meetings. In fact, each of those games was decided by eight points or less and Seattle was a perfect 3-0 ATS, holding the Suns below their regular scoring average in each game. The Suns were favored by 12 in the lone meeting here at Seattle and they won by 'only' seven. Including that result, the Suns are just 5-11 ATS the last 16 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range, including a 1-6 ATS mark in that role the past three seasons. In addition to the fact that they are playing with "triple revenge," the Sonics should be highly motivated to bounce back from an extremely embarrassing (168-116!) loss at Denver a few nights ago. Note that they're 15-12 ATS on the season when coming off a double-digit loss. Denver's 168 points were the most given up in regulation this millennium and the Sonics are determined to give a much better effort this evening. Coach P.J. Carlesimo: "Once it's over, it's over You don't forget about it, but you don't dwell on it either. We can carry it forward or we can put it behind us. I think we'll put it behind us." Star rookie Kevin Durant agrees that Seattle can and will bounce back: "That was very tough to handle, but we put that behind us. We came in today and had one of our best practices of the year. We practiced very hard, competed all practice. That's something we needed to do to build up for tomorrow against the same type of team. I think we'll be alright." Look for a big effort from Durant and co. as they give the Suns a tougher game than expected once again, improving to 8-1 ATS the last nine series meetings.
*Western Conf. Game of the Week
SONICS