Drew Gordon
1. 200,000♦ Cincinnati
2. 50,000♦ Florida
3. 50,000♦ Pacers
1. Cincinnati- Come NIT or CBI tourney time, one of the most important aspects in handicapping these games is a team's psyche. In other words, is a team excited or disappointed to be here? Do they consider it the "loser's tourney" or a chance at redemption? Cincinnati, sitting at 13-18, having lost 6 in a row and with no one believing in them, fits this bill perfectly tonight.
First of all, the Bearcats want nothing more than a chance to redeem themselves after losing 6 straight games down the stretch. While they did get crushed by Connecticut, you have to like the way they responded to that loss... By giving Pitt almost more than they could handle, losing 70-64 but covering as 8-point pups. Bradley also didn't play well down the stretch, but they didn't have the same kind of confidence-boosting effort that Cincy had against Pitt. Instead they crushed by the Salukis in their own house, and then lost to Creighton twice.
The Bearcats frontcourt was key to their cover against Pitt, and it'll be even more important against a guard-heavy Braves squad in this one. F Matt Salley is the only true frontline contributor the Braves have, and he'll have his hands full tonight against the likes of Cincy's Williamson, Hrycaniuk, and Bishop.
While the Bearcats clearly have the edge in the frontcourt, that still doesn't even include their best player - G Deonta Vaughn, who's 17 ppg paces Cincinnati. He's coming off a 30-point 6 assist effort against a rock-solid Pitt defense, and should be able to get it done against a Bradley defense allowing 79 ppg on 44% shooting over their last 5 games.
Bottom line, Cincy has most of the necessary deciding factors in their favor - a positive team psyche, a strong edge in the frontcourt, and the best overall player in the game tonight in Vaughn. While Bradley is no slouch at home, I still expect this to be an extremely competitive contest. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Bearcats won outright in this spot, but let's not get greedy... Take the points and grab the cash with Cincy.
Take Cincinnati plus the points over Bradley as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Florida- I know what you're saying: "Drew, you just got finished telling us that team psyche is critical in handicapping NIT/CBI games, so how can you pick Florida in this spot, when they were clearly disappointed to be going to the NIT?"
Well, if you read above, I said team psyche is one of the most important aspects, but not the only one. Truth be told, coach Donovan is in a tricky situation with such a young team following a two-time National Championship team. So what did he do? He let them have it... Taking away their practice facility and publicly saying he wasn't "excited" about the returning team chances next year. If ever there was a game this Gators team was going to give a "max-effort" it'll be tonight.
Also consider, while the Aztecs did win 20 games, they didn't fare well against solid competition, especially on the road. Losses at Utah, at UNLV, and against BYU in the MWC tourney, immediately come to mind, as the Aztecs had their chances, but continually came up short on the highway. Now you want them to get it done in Gainesville, where the Gators are at their most dangerous on the friendly rims, averaging 82 ppg on a blazing 52% shooting this season.
Finally, let's look over the match ups, and it becomes clear the Aztecs fall short, especailly in the backcourt. F Lorenzo Wade is great, but after that, forwards Amoroso and freshman Billy White won't find it nearly as easy against solid SEC competition. Speights and Werner got dominated by the Crimson Tide's frontline, and will be looking to make a point tonight against the Aztecs. And we haven't even mentioned guards Calathes, Hodge, and Lucas, all of which are leaps and bounds better than anything San Diego State has in their backcourt.
Bottom line, few times can you count on a "disapppointed" team to come through in a "lesser" tournament, but Florida got embarassed, and Billy Donovan won't let his Gators go out like that. They're a solid SEC team, and the talent difference becomes more apparant, as the Aztecs struggle once again in hostile territory.
Take Florida over San Diego State in this NIT match up.
3. Pacers- Got to like the Pacers in this spot, as they have a multitude of factors in their favor against the Bobcats tonight:
First, they're playing at home, where their offensive firepower isn't completely outdone by their deficiencies on defense. In other words, they actually play D at Conseco Fieldhouse, and when you couple that with their high-powered attack, they're a much better team. Charlotte's inability to score the basetball when they travel cannot be ignored, averaging just 91 ppg on 43% shooting away!
Second, although not as strong a factor in the NBA, the Pacers are playing some payback in mind tonight. Bobcats have beaten them in consecutive meetings in Charlotte, and the Pacers will be looking for some redemption tonight. The fact Indiana leads the Bobcats in their race to catch the Hawks and Nets for the 8th and final playoff spot, also gives added importance to the revenge factor here.
Finally, Charlotte has done nothing but lose on the road, going 6-26 SU & 11-20-1 ATS this season, so why would you trust them in this spot? Not only that, but they're at the end of another losing road trip, when loss of focus and fatigue become real problems. Bobcats already have issues on defense, allowing 103 ppg on 48% shooting away this season, but if they play tired, Indiana will blow them right out of the Conseco Fieldhouse in this one. Pacers roll!
Take the Pacers comfortably over the Bobcats in this NBA match up.
