Greg Shaker
CBB Total
double-dime bet Dartmouth / Harvard Over 137.5 BetUS
Analysis: NCAAB: Harvard Crimson at Dartmouth Big Green - Over 137.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 1/11/2008
Note: This Total Line opened at 139.5 and has quickly moved down to it's current level. The reason for that is a simple one. The Big Green have been Big Flopping at putting the ball in the hoop and in fact their last game was verses this Harvard Crew, managing just 56 points, giving them an average of about 57 per contest over the last 4 games played. If the score that many tonight we are probably toast, but there are reasons to believe that they will. First and foremost is the fact that all 4 games were away from home and they were dominated on the boards in all of them with the exception of one. This team has some serious ball handling problems as well, and teams that do, do not fair well when they travel. Here at home, it has been a better story for them and the friendly surroundings have allowed them to shoot at a much higher percentage and score at a much higher rate. Pace-wise, this team is about average but the real story tonight is the incredibly poor D that this team possesses. Ranked at #326 in the land, Dartmouth has allowed 49% shooting this year and that is what Harvard does best. The Crimson have feasted on poor D's this year with many of those coming from the perimiter. They did score 82 verses Dartmouth just a few days ago and they did it with 52% shooting from the court and their fair share of free throws. Harvard will have the advantage in the interior tonight and we should see two things happen because of that. Plenty of re-ups on rebounds, and plenty of fouls. They are going to attack and they are very good at setting a higher than normal pace. Harvard is currently in the top 30% of that department, and in the last 3 games played between these two, they have been able to control it. We did see 116 shots in the first matchup between these two, and if we have any improvement tonight in the Big Green shooting percentage tonight, that same number will get this one OVER easily. Based on the Dartmouth performance at home this year and a Harvard D that has been very poor while traveling, allowing over 83 points, I think that we will.
NBA Total
double-dime bet GSW / MEM Over 223.0 BetUS
Analysis: NBA: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors - Over 223 -110 | Unit Value: 2 DIMES
Game Date: 1/11/2008
Note: This is a super high total and you don't have to tell me that. But, the lowest output by these two teams when they have met the last 5 times, was 220 points and the rest of them have gone way OVER this posted total. We have a couple of things tonight that makes me think that we will see 230+. One of those in the fact that Memphis is as healthy as they have been this year and it is back to business as usual, topping the century mark the last 3 games, including a 113 effort just last night. That game was played with a more physical than average Kings squad and the Grizzlies will have to get right back into action, playing their 3rd game in 4 days and back to back. That does not bode well for their D efforts tonight and having to play the fastest pace team in the League does not either. Golden State is coming off a very poor scoring effort at Portland and they are going to be motivated to get back ontrack tonight. Being back at home is good medicine for them where they average 113 per contest and most of those games have been against much better team D's than the Grizzlies bring to the table. The Pace is going to be fierce tonight as these two usually have 175 to 190 shots taken when they play. With a healthy Memphis shooting corp, and with a very motivated Warrior team, I suspect that we will see better than average connectivity. Don't be afraid of the Big Bad Wolf. Play OVER.