DR.BOB
NFL
NFL Best Bet Sides
3 Star Selection
GREEN BAY (-7.5) 33 Seattle 14
12-Jan-08 01:30 PM Pacific Time
Seattle played well last week in beating Washington 35-14, but two long interception returns for touchdowns broke open a close game and the Seahawks are still barely better than an average team overall. Seattle is just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and WR Deion Branch on the field (Hasselbeck struggled in the 4-plus games without Branch) and the Seahawks? defense is just 0.1 yppl better than average even after excluding their week 17 game against the Falcons when their backups played a lot of snaps. Seattle looks like a pretty good team because they out-gained their foes 5.4 yppl to 4.9 yppl, but they faced a very easy schedule of teams. Green Bay has a mediocre defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense) but the Packers are very good offensively now that they?ve discovered running back Ryan Grant. Grant became the featured back in week 8 and turned an ineffective rushing attack into one of the league?s best, gaining 956 yards at a very impressive 5.1 ypr. Veteran quarterback Brett Favre had one of his best years ever and averaged 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) from week 3 on, which is when big play receiver Greg Jennings joined the lineup (he missed the first two games of the season). The Packers? offense rates at 1.3 yppl better than average with their current lineup and they?ll dominate a mediocre Seattle defense.
Having a week off to get healthy, regenerate, and prepare is a huge advantage this time of year and home teams with a bye have won exactly 50% of the time by 10 points or more since 1980. The home field advantage in this round of playoffs is 5 ? points and the oddsmakers have pretty much figured that out too, which is why you might think that the lines on this week?s games look higher than you?d expect. In this case the line is not high enough, as my math model favors Green Bay by 11 ? points. In addition to the line value the Packers apply to a 35-6-1 ATS subset of a 68-26-2 ATS playoff situation. I?ll take Green Bay in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less, for 4-Stars at -7 or less, and for 2-Stars at -10 ? or -11 points.
3 Star Selection
DALLAS (-7.5) 28 NY Giants 12
13-Jan-08 01:30 PM Pacific Time
New York was out of character last week in beating Tampa Bay, as the Giants committed no turnovers and were plus 3 in turnover margin. New York was -9 in turnover margin for the season heading into that game (while Tampa Bay was +13 in TO margin), so don?t expect the Giants to be turnover free again this week. Eli Manning looked in control of the offense, but he?s played error free football before and then looked horrible the very next week. The inconsistent Manning has rarely played error free in consecutive games and he?s actually been horrible in games following a game in which he did not throw an interception. In the last two seasons Manning has averaged a horrible 4.9 yards per pass play with 14 interceptions in 9 games after not throwing a pick in the previous game, including 4.3 yppp and 8 picks in 4 such games this season. Manning may appear to be a better quarterback the last two weeks than he?s been all season but there is certainly no indication that he will continue to play well ? in fact it?s just the opposite. Manning averaged a sub-par 5.7 yppp this season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and I don?t expect him to have much success against a Dallas defense that is 1.0 yppp better than average from week 4 on when star LB Greg Ellis joined the lineup after missing the first 3 games (for a second straight season the Cowboys were poor defensively without Ellis and good defensively with him). New York?s offensive strength in a rushing attack that averaged 4.7 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.1 ypr to an average team), but the ground game will be slowed a bit by a solid Cowboys? run defense that gave up 4.1 ypr to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team. Overall, the Cowboys have a significant advantage with their defense over the Giants? offense and New York averaged just 4.5 yards per play at home against the Cowboys in week 10 (the good offensive production by the Giants at Dallas in week 1 was against a Cowboys? defense without Ellis).
The Giants defense is also better than their season numbers, as the 8.8 yards per play that they allowed the Cowboys in week 1 was a game in which Michael Strahan and CB Sam Madison did not start. Madison was put into the starting lineup the following week and the Giants? defense has 0.6 yppl better than average in 16 games since then. Dallas was 0.9 yppl better than average for the season offensively (6.1 yppl against temas that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Cowboys averaged 6.0 yppl in a 31-20 win at New York in week 10. Star WR Terrell Owens has practiced this week and is expected to play and those that remember Owens? great play in the Super Bowl for the Eagles a few years ago with a broken leg have no doubt that Owens will perform well with his sprained ankle. The Cowboys are 0.9 yppl better than average offensively, so they have an advantage over the Giants? defense in this game. The key to the Giants? defense is a pass rush that averages 3.2 sacks per game but the elusive Tony Romo was sacked a total of just 3 times in 2 games against New York this season, which may be why he has played so well against them (if you can avoid the pressure than throwing against a sub-par Giants? secondary is not that tough to do). My math model projects 5.7 yppl for Dallas in this game, which should be more than enough to pull away from a Giants team that is expected to struggle offensively.
Overall my math model favors Dallas by 8 points in this game, so there really isn?t any line value. However, Dallas applies to a 21-3 ATS playoff situation while New York applies to a negative 6-35-1 ATS playoff situation. Dallas also applies to a very strong 46-8-1 ATS situation that is 20-0 ATS recently. I?ll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ? or -10 points. I?ll also lean with the Under in this game.
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Other NFL Games
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) 33 Jacksonville 17
12-Jan-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
A lot of pundits give Jacksonville a good shot at an upset in this game, but the Jaguars aren?t good enough defensively to hang with the Patriots. Jacksonville is equipped offensively to have decent success in this game, but I just don?t see them stopping New England?s offense.
Jacksonville should be able to run the ball with success, as the Jaguars averaged 4.8 ypr while the Patriots have allowed 4.4 ypr this season, and efficient quarterback David Garrard (6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) should have decent success throwing against a Patriots? pass defense that is 0.7 yppp better than average. Garrard also doesn?t make many mistakes, throwing just 5 interceptions all season (although he was picked twice last week in Pittsburgh), so Jacksonville does have an advantage over New England?s defense.
The Jaguars, however, aren?t good enough defensively to stop the Patriots. The Jags are only 0.1 ypr better than average defending the run (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average team ? not including their week 17 game against Houston when they rested some starters) and they are just 0.4 yppp better than average against the pass (since pass rushing DE Paul Spicer joined the starting unit permanently in week 6). Tom Brady had the best season of any quarterback in history and he averaged 7.8 yppp this season (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) while throwing just 8 interceptions against 50 touchdown passes. Teams that gave the Patriots problems were teams that could generate a pass rush without blitzing too much and only Spicer is a good pass rusher among the defensive linemen (8.5 sacks). If the Jaguars choose to blitz to get pressure on Brady they take a risk that they?ll get burned, as Brady is quick to respond to blitzes and usually finds the open receiver quickly. The Patriots probably won?t get to their 37 points per game average, but they should get pretty close to that.
My math model only favors New England by 9 points in this game, but the Patriots have consistently out-played the math projections this season and have a scoring margin that is 6 points more than their stats would predict. Jacksonville out-played their stats by 1 point this season, so adding 5 points to the math model projection of a 9 point margin would give you New England by 14 points, which is about what the pointspread is. This game is very tough to call, but giving Bill Belichick and this staff an extra week to prepare will make the Patriots even tougher to compete with and Tom Brady is 38-16-3 ATS in his career at home when not favored by 20 points or more, including 5-0 ATS this season and 4-1-1 ATS in the playoffs). I?ll lean slightly with New England and I have no opinion on the total.
San Diego (+9) 17 INDIANAPOLIS 24
13-Jan-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Chargers? defense has given Peyton Manning fits in recent years, including a horrible 6 interception performance in San Diego earlier this season. The Chargers were also the first team to beat the Colts in 2005 after Indy started the season 13-0. There are theories that Manning has trouble with good 3-4 defensive schemes and his recent problems with Pittsburgh and San Diego certainly give some credence to that hypothesis. That week 10 meeting between these teams happen to be the first game in which All-Pro CB Antonio Cromartie was in the starting lineup and the Chargers? defense has been great ever since. San Diego has allowed just 4.4 yards per play in 9 games with Cromartie in the starting lineup (against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team) and that unit stacks up evenly against a Colts? attack that is 0.7 yppl better than average with Peyton Manning at quarterback. Manning gets favorite target Marvin Harrison back in the lineup this week after missing all but the first 3 games this season. Manning?s numbers in those 3 games with Harrison were outstanding (8.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) but it?s tough to say whether Harrison will be as effective as usual so I?ll only make a slight adjustment for his return (i.e. I?ll use Manning?s full season stats, which includes those first 3 games, instead of using just his stats from the games without Harrison as I?ve been doing most of the season).
While the Chargers? defense looks up to the task of containing the Colts? offense I am not so sure that their offense will be able to do their share with star TE Antonio Gates questionable to play. Gates dislocated his toe in the Chargers? win over Tennessee last week and he hasn?t practiced at all this week and will be a game time decision. If Gates plays he probably won?t be playing at full speed and Philip Rivers would surely struggle against the Colts? great pass defense. Rivers has been 0.4 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he averages 8.4 yards per pass when he throws a pass to Gates, compared to 6.3 yards per pass attempt to any other receiver. Rivers goes from 0.4 yppp better than average with Gates to 0.1 yppp worse than average without him and I?ll assume he?s out for this game (or at least not as effective as usual). The Colts? defense was a very good 1.1 yppp better than averaged defending the pass this season (5.1 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense ? excluding their week 17 game when their starters didn?t play much), so Rivers would likely have trouble throwing the ball even if Gates was 100%. San Diego does have LaDainian Tomlinson to run the ball, but San Diego?s rushing attack has actually been no better than average this season, averaging 4.3 ypr against teams that would combine to allow 4.3 ypr to an average team. The Colts are only 0.2 ypr better than average defensively, so Tomlinson could be a factor. Overall, the Chargers offense is average without Gates and the Colts are much better than average defensively, so it will be tough for San Diego to move the ball consistently. San Diego only averaged 3.8 ypr, 3.3 yppp and 3.5 yppl in their week 10 win over the Colts, as that win was the function of two return touchdowns and a +3 in turnover margin. In fact, to win that game by only 2 points despite having 2 return TD?s and 6 interceptions is an indication of how much better the Colts may be.
Overall, my math model favors Indy by just 8 points while assuming that Gates won?t play (and he may), so I?ll lean slightly with San Diego plus 7 ? points or more and I will also lean with the Under in this game as both defenses are very good.
