Services for Sat 1-12

[Vegas21]

Larry Ness' Divisional GOY(3-0 LW / 23-9 L8 weeks)

Larry entered the NFL post season (was 7-3 in LY's playoffs) having shown a profit in 10 of his final 12 NFL weeks. How did he do? His 3-0 sweep upped his eight-week run with individual NFL games to 23-9 (71.9% ATS)! His "assault on the NFL point spread" continues Saturday with his 20* Divisional GOY. Any takers?

My 20* play is on the GB Packers at 4:30 ET. I used Seattle as my 20* Wild Card GOY against Washington LW and now will come right back AGAINST them here! The Seahawks had the perfect setup LW. The 'Skins were playing their fifth straight "win or you're done game" and it was their THIRD road game in four weeks. Washington QB Todd Collins hadn't started a game in 10 years prior to leading Washington to four straight wins to end the regular season, RB Portis had been mediocre all season and the team's top-three receivers had just three 100-yard games between them. The 'Skins were coming off a short week and Seattle was at home, where it owned a 42-14 home record, the NFL's second-best mark since '01. Seattle totally DOMINATED the first three quarters but led just 13-0. Mid-way through the 4th, Seattle was down 14-13 and was lucky NOT to be down 21-13 (or at least, 17-13). Seattle did come back to win 35-14 but C'MON! Hasselbeck, who had a career year, was just mediocre with one TDP and two INTs (QB rating of 68.4 compared to 91.4 in the regular season!). RB Alexander is just a shell of what he once was (averaged 44.8 YPG rushing his last five games and had 46 yards on 15 carries vs Wash!) while backup Morris (4-for-17 yards) didn't look any better. Here, Seattle travels to Green Bay and let's note the Seahawks are 1-6 SU all-time on the playoff road. Also, consider this. The franchise has had just TWO winning regular seasons on the road in their 32-year history! The team was just 3-5 SU and ATS on the road TY, including a 2-0 SU and ATS mark against NFC West lightweights, SF and StL (1-5 SU and ATS in the rest of its road games). In fact, Seattle went 4-0 SU and ATS vs SF and StL this year (outscoring them 104-28), making them just 6-6 SU (5-7 ATS) against the rest of the league (barely outscoring the rest of its opponents 289-263), while beating just ONE playoff team (TB in Week 1) during the regular season. Now to the Packers. Favre was coming off two down years, with a 20-29 ratio in '05 and a career-low 56.0 percent completion rate in '06 (18-18 ratio). However, he stopped FORCING things this year and completed a career-high 66.5 percent plus had his third-best yardage total (4,155) and QB rating (95.7) of his career as well. Ryan Grant took over at RB in the team's seventh game, after Green Bay averaged an NFL-low 65.7 YPG rushing (3.3) through six games. Grant averaged 92.9 YPG (5.1 per) in the season's final 10 games, leading a rushing attack which improved to 120.3 YPG (4.5) in that stretch. Favre had four receivers catch 47 balls or more, with Driver nabbing 82 and Jennings averaging 17.4 YPC with 12 TDs. One DE is Kampman (12 sacks) and the team rotated ******* on running downs and KGB (9 1/2 sacks) on passing downs at the other side. The LBs are very underrated plus Harris and Woodson rank with the best CB duos in the NFL! The Pack went a league-best 12-3-1 ATS this year, including 6-1-1 at home. In its last four home games it allowed 9.3 PPG, winning by an average of 25.0 PPG! This has been a magical year for Favre and while he's NEVER won in Dallas (likely venue next if the Pack win here!), I expect a superb performance from him in this game. Last week the Seahawks had all the advantages and almostt let a "sure win" the game slip away. That happens to mediocre teams. This time around, it's Seattle, a historically TERRIBLE road team, which will be playing its FIFTH road game in eight weeks, going up against a team which has defied everyone for OVER a year, by going 17-3 SU and 16-3-1 over its last 20 games! Favre's 'ride' won't end here, vs this quality of opponent! Division Round GOY 20* GB Packers.

Good Luck...Larry

 

[Vegas21]

Totals 4 U

Seattle at Green Bay

Seattle makes the trip to the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field to take on the franchise that Seahawk Head Coach Mike Holmgren (170-109 in 16th head-coaching season) guided to a pair of Super Bowls following the 1996 and 1997 seasons.

Seattle?s front seven puts all kinds of heat on the pocket with tackles Brandon Mebane and Rocky Bernard strong at both absorbing and splitting blockers, while ends Patrick Kearney and Darryl Tapp terrorize from the edges and bat down balls. Key to Defensive Coordinator John Marshall's scheme is sending SLB Leroy Hill and WLB Julian Peterson on the blitz, made possible by the much improved pass coverage by his squad this season. Safeties Deon Grant and Brian Russell have been physical, the play of nickel back and all-around football player Jordan Babineaux has demanded more playing time, while LCB Marcus Trufant has exploded into one of the league?s top one-on-one corners in his 5th season as a pro. And then there?s the man in the middle. 3rd-year MLB Lofa Tatupo has a remarkable sense for the ball and a relentless motor that controls the action from sideline to sideline with the unmistakable brand of intensity that few outside of the Fraternity of Polynesian Players bring to the field. If I were a General Manager, I?d stack my team with kids from the islands and drink ?Tiny Bubbles? from the Lombardi Trophy! By the numbers, Seattle allowed 18.2 points on 102.8 rush yards and 219.1 pass yards per game while racking up 45 sacks, 20 picks, and 23 fumble recoveries during the regular season.

On the offensive side of the ball, QB Matt Hasselbeck is having a spectacular season behind the makeshift line of LT Walter Jones, LG Rob Sims, C Chris Spencer, RG Chris Gray, and RT Sean Locklear ? especially considering he has been without his starting wide receivers much of the season. Ostensibly, WR D.J. Hackett and Deion Branch make up the first string, but due to multiple reoccurring injuries, this pair has played less than two full games together coming into this weekend where they will get the call. In their spots have thrived Nate Burleson and WR Bobby Engram, each producing career seasons. Expect to see plenty of each on Saturday in Coach Holmgren?s three and four wide receiver sets. Rushing the ball effectively for the Birds this season has been a struggle with Shaun Alexander (207 for 716 and 4 TD) managing just 3.5 yards per carry, while backup 5?11? 216 RB Maurice Morris (140 for 628 and 4 TD rushing, 23 for 213 and TD receiving) has showed more promise both on the ground and through the air. Just 101.2 yards rushing (9 TD) per game compared with 247.8 passing (30 TD) has led to 36 sacks, but, hey, that?s Holmgren. It?s the 26 lost fumbles that drive him nuts, and the 24.6 points per game that still makes him one of the best offensive minds in football. It must be noted that Seattle?s regular season opponents finished with a combined record of 106-150, with only Wildcard Round losers Pittsburgh (0-21 road loss) and Tampa Bay (20-6 home win) reaching the postseason.

Green Bay (13-3, 0-0 playoffs) combined the youngest roster in the National Football League with a turn-back-the-clock season from 17th-year QB Brett Favre (356 of 535 for 4155 yards, 28 TD, 15 INT) to take NFC North Championship honors and earn the first round bye of a second seed. When Favre stated at the beginning of the 2006 campaign that GM Ted Thompson had assembled the best group of talent he had ever played with, the sports world thought that Old Brett was suffering from either too many hits to the head or an early onset of Alzheimer?s Disease. But here they are, ripping up defenses with a 378.2 yards of offense (2nd in the NFL), including 278.8 yards passing (2nd in the NFL), and 27.2 points per game, while holding Pro Football?s 3rd-best point differential behind only the Patriots and Colts. 9th-year veteran 6?0? 190 WR Donald Driver (82 for 1048 and 2 TD) has been joined by youngsters 5?11? 197 Greg Jennings (53 for 940 and 12 TD, 17.4 yards per catch), 6?1? 207 James Jones (47 for 676 and 2 TD), and 6?4? 210 Ruvell Martin (16 for 242 and 4 TD), plus 6th-year Koren Robinson (21 for 241 and TD) who has returned to the NFL with a born-again attitude after serving a one year suspension for off the field issues. Also energizing the aerial attack has been the development of 6?4? 248 TE Donald Lee (48 for 575 and 6 TD), who has clearly left 6?6? 265 Bubba Franks (18 for 132 and 3 TD), who has teased fans with glimpses of his unlimited but never entirely fulfilled talent for eight years, in the dust. Green Bay?s rushing game has taken a lot of heat this season for averaging just 99.8 yards per contest, but at 4.1 yards per carry, the pass-heavy play calling of Head Coach Mike McCarthy (21-11 in 2nd season as head coach) is as much responsible as anything. It took injuries to 5?10? rookie Brandon Jackson (75 for 267 and TD), Noah Herron, Vernand Morency, and DeShawn Wynn for the Pack to find their workhorse back in 6?1? 228 first-year RB Ryan Grant (188 for 956 and 8 TD), who has powered through defenses for a dynamite 5.1 yards per carry while displaying a burst rare for a man his size with runs of 24, 30, 23, 31, 62, 26, 24, 66, and 27 yards in just ten games as the primary ball carrier. Much credit must be given to the work of Offensive Line Coach James Campen. Tackles 6?5? 320 Chad Clifton and 6?3? 315 Mark Taucher are superb in all phases of the game, but Campen has had to mix and match the interior line all season, currently going with 6?4? 305 LG Daryn Colledge, 6?2? 295 C Scott Wells, and 6?3? 300 RG Jason Spitz, while 6?5? 304 Tony Moll backs up all three positions. Just 19 sacks surrendered in almost 600 drop-backs is absolutely superb.

Defensive Coordinator Bob Sanders has put together a crew that is both tough and deep. 6?2? 322 LDT Ryan Picket (39 T, S) has become a premier run stuffer and 6?4? 313 RDT Corey Williams (35 T, 7 S, INT) has eaten guards and centers for lunch on the way to the pocket all year. From the edge, 6?4? 270 LDE Aaron Kampman (64 T, 12 S) gets more out of his talent than any player in the NFL at the position, and although 6?4? 247 RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (26 T, 9 ? S) has lost his starting job for poor performance against the run, he continues to pile up the sacks, rotating to the field in pass situations. In the middle, 6?2? 232 MLB Nick Barnett (131 T, 3 ? S, 2 INT), 6?1? 247 WLB A.J. Hawk (105 T, S, INT), and 5?11? 211 SS Atari Bigby (86 T, 5 INT) are each swift and physical, plus few squads have a pair of corners that bring the experience of 6?1? 200 Charles Woodson (63 T, 4 INT) and 6?1? 188 Al Harris (37 T, 2 INT) ? especially key with such a young group in front of them. By the numbers, the Packers have held opponents to 18.2 points on 102.9 yards rushing and 224.0 yards passing per game while amassing 19 picks, 22 fumble recoveries, and 36 sacks. One more note. Has anyone else noted that for no obvious reason, wide receiver Ruvell Martin is the backup holder for rookie K Mason Crosby (31 of 39 field goals, 3 of 5 from 50+ yards)? A deeper look finds a former All-State High School quarterback wearing number 82.

This Saturday marks the 267th consecutive sellout at Lambeau Field for a Packers team that has won 17 of its last 20 games, but makes the franchise's first playoff appearance in three years and has 36 players on its 53-man roster that have never played in a professional postseason game. The forecast for Green Bay is 26 degrees and 8-10 mph winds at kickoff Seattle is 3-5 on the road this year, while the Pack is 7-1 at home. Take Seattle +8 and enjoy what's likely to be the best game of the weekend!

 

[Vegas21]

THE GOLD SHEET

Saturday, January 12, 2008

SEATTLE (11-6) at GREEN BAY (13-3)

GREEN BAY 24 - Seattle 23?Familiarity angles abound in this matchup.
Green Bay?s last home playoff victory was 33-27 in overtime vs. Seattle in
2003, when the bold Matt Hasselbeck said the Seahawks would take the ball
after winning the OT coin flip, boasting into the microphone, ?We want the ball.
We?re going to score.? He then proceeded to throw an interception into the
hands of Packer CB Al Harris, who easily returned it the distance for the
winning TD. Hasselbeck, of course, was Brett Favre?s backup two years in
Green Bay before being dealt to Seattle. Mike McCarthy was Packer QB
coach under then-HC Ray Rhodes the season after Mike Holmgren?s ended his
stay in Packerland to take over in the Emerald City.

But enough with familiarity and coincidence. The underdog Seahawks are
the preference here for far more substantial reasons, even despite G.B.?s
league-leading 12-3-1 pointspread mark TY and Brett Favre?s unexpectedly
magical 2007 campaign when he hit 66.5% with 28 TDs & 15 ints., breaking a
slew of lifetime passing records along the way.

In short, Seattle has its own playoff-seasoned QB in Hasselbeck (62.6%,
28 TDs, 12 ints. in the regular season), a more experienced and slightly more
versatile ground game featuring Shaun Alexander & Maurice Morris, an equal
defense (both teams gave up exactly 291 points in the regular season), and a
more experienced kicker in Josh Brown. And the Seahawks? aggressive
pass rushers racked up 45 sacks in the regular season compared with G.B?s

36. Moreover, WR Nate Burleson turned out to be a revelation as a KR & PR.
Seattle has been tough to finish off as an underdog, going 10-1 getting
more than a TD the last 11 seasons. Contrariwise, the Packers have failed to
cover their last three in the playoffs at the previously-impenetrable fortress of
Lambeau Field. This will be Holmgren?s 24th playoff game; McCarthy?s first.
And let?s remember that there is still a core of Seahawk players who
advanced to the Super Bowl two seasons ago and took the then-powerful
Bears to overtime in this same Divisional Round LY (losing 27-24 in overtime in
Chicago), while G.B. had one of the youngest rosters in the NFL in 2007.
(07 Preseason: Green Bay -3 beat Seattle 48-13 at Green Bay)
(06-SEA. 34-G. Bay 24...S.29-14 S.48/235 G.19/51 G.22/36/3/259 S.17/36/3/147 S.1 G.1)
(06-SEATTLE -9' 34-24...SR: Green Bay 7-5)


JACKSONVILLE (12-5) at NEW ENGLAND (16-0)

NEW ENGLAND 36 - Jacksonville 17?With Jacksonville on such a nice
late-season roll (7-1 its last 8?excluding its meaningless reg.-season loss in its
finale at Houston), it is very tempting to side with the fearless, physical Jaguars.
But to go against the ?perfect? Patriots?when they are rested, focused, and
with their ?evil? genius coach Belichick given extra time to plot his beloved game
plan?without every extra edge (namely, at least a two-TD oddsmaker cushion
here), appears to be the lower-percentage play.

Yes, it is true that N.E. was 2-6 vs. the spread to end the regular season. And
also that five of its last eight wins were recorded by margins of 4, 3, 3, 10, and
3 points. But let?s keep in mind that the Pats have proven themselves to be an
extraordinary team in 2007, able to keep their regular season in perspective
despite the constant hype, focusing on each opponent in turn, game-by-game,
never getting ahead of themselves and always speaking of the bigger picture?
namely, the home-field edge throughout the AFC playoffs and the ring at the end
of the season. With Belichick in command and Brady leading the charge, you
can expect them to be at their best in this one, especially with the rock ?em, sock
?em Jags representing a bona fide threat.

While we have nothing but respect for the performance of Jacksonville QB
David Garrard this season (64%, 18 TDs, 3 ints.; 1 TD, 2 ints. in his first playoff
start last week in Pittsburgh), his receiving corps is none too scary, allowing
Belichick to load up vs. the run with his deep corps of defensive linemen and oh-
so-experienced LBs. Jag RBs Fred Taylor & Maurice Jones-Drew might break
through that curtain. But if they don?t, the young Garrard is likely to suffer the
same fate as the young version of Peyton Manning and other QBs during the
six-year Brady-Belichick run, when the Pats have gone 12-2 SU in the playoffs
(8-5-1 vs. the spread; 4-1-1 at home).

The numbers of Brady (record 50 TDs vs. 8 ints.), Randy Moss (record 23
TDs), and Wes Welker (112 recs.) are mighty, like N.E.?s 16-0 record, indicative
of a ?special? team. But the somewhat-overlooked defense was fourth overall,
second in sacks, sixth in interceptions, and third in rushing TDs allowed (only 7).
The rough-and-ready Jags are 6-2 as a dog TY. There is no disrespect for them
here. Merely a preference for the exceptional Patriots and their exceptional
coach and QB, especially when those two appear to have a definitive
preparation/experience edge on their side.
06-N. Eng. 24-JACK. 21...N.22-12 J.22/144 N.30/117 N.28/39/0/242 J.17/23/0/195 N.0 J.1)
(06-New England +3 24-21...SR: New England 6-1)

 

[Vegas21]

POINTWISE

NFL

LINE: GREEN BAY BY 8 -- O/U: 40
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Seattle ......... 43.1 . 25- 18 .. 20-18 .. 100-101 .. 247- 221 .. +10 . Green Bay
Green Bay... 44.1 . 27- 18 .. 19-19 .. 100-103 .. 271- 210 .. + 4 . by 6.3 Pts
Mike Holmgren now has 13 playoff wins, & takes on his old squad for the 6th time,
(5th away) including a 33-27 loss in the '03 playoffs, with the last 3 decided by 1?,
0, 0 pts ATS. Seattle was not at its best in win over Washington (14 FDs), with
Hasselbeck only 1/2, (28/12 in regular season), & Alexander at just 3.5 ypr. Pack
has won 17-of-20 SU, covering 19-of-25, averaging 33.2 ppg in their last 7 meaningful
tilts. They've ridden Grant (5.1 ypr) in rising 11 spots in overland production,
& of course, there is Brett (28 TD passes), & seemingly another NFL record each
wk. The SU winner is a combined 31-0-2 ATS when these 2 take the field. Pack!
PROPHECY: GREEN BAY 31 - Seattle 20 RATING: 5



JACKSONVILLE (12-5) at NEW ENGLAND (16-0)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12 -- 8:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: NEW ENGLAND BY 12 -- O/U: 48
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Jacksonville 45.9 . 26- 20 .. 20-18 .. 149- 97 .. 202- 218 .. +11 . Nw England
Nw England 45.5 . 37- 17 .. 25-17 .. 116- 98 .. 296- 190 .. +16 . by 17.5 Pts
Well the smoking Jags (4.7-1.7 ypr edge LW) nearly let it get away from them at
Pittsburgh, blowing all of a 28-10 lead, before a brilliant run by Garrard bailed them
out. But he also threw 2 picks, after an awesome 18/3 for the regular season.
J'Ville is averaging 30.5 ppg in its last 11 outings, is on a 7-1 spread run, & has set
a team record with 54 TDs. But the Pats are the standard, with their perfect 16-0
slate, averaging 41.4 ppg in their first 8 (+117 pts ATS), but only 32.3 ppg in their
last 8 (-49 pts ATS). Brady: 50/8 & >4,800 yds; Moss: 23 TDs. Jags were stung
for nearly 300 PYs by Roethlisberger, so Brady should do his thing. Pats the play.
PROPHECY: NEW ENGLAND 34 - Jacksonville 17 RATING: 3

 

[Vegas21]

GOLD SHEET

NCAAB

*****KEY RELEASES *****
VANDERBILT by 12 over Kentucky (Saturday, January 12 Day)
CHARLOTTE by 15 over Temple (Saturday, January 12)

 

[Vegas21]

Dr Bob

NFL Best Bet Sides

3 Star Selection
GREEN BAY (-7.5) 33 Seattle 14
12-Jan-08 01:30 PM Pacific Time
Seattle played well last week in beating Washington 35-14, but two long interception returns for touchdowns broke open a close game and the Seahawks are still barely better than an average team overall. Seattle is just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and WR Deion Branch on the field (Hasselbeck struggled in the 4-plus games without Branch) and the Seahawks? defense is just 0.1 yppl better than average even after excluding their week 17 game against the Falcons when their backups played a lot of snaps. Seattle looks like a pretty good team because they out-gained their foes 5.4 yppl to 4.9 yppl, but they faced a very easy schedule of teams. Green Bay has a mediocre defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defense) but the Packers are very good offensively now that they?ve discovered running back Ryan Grant. Grant became the featured back in week 8 and turned an ineffective rushing attack into one of the league?s best, gaining 956 yards at a very impressive 5.1 ypr. Veteran quarterback Brett Favre had one of his best years ever and averaged 7.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) from week 3 on, which is when big play receiver Greg Jennings joined the lineup (he missed the first two games of the season). The Packers? offense rates at 1.3 yppl better than average with their current lineup and they?ll dominate a mediocre Seattle defense.
Having a week off to get healthy, regenerate, and prepare is a huge advantage this time of year and home teams with a bye have won exactly 50% of the time by 10 points or more since 1980. The home field advantage in this round of playoffs is 5 ? points and the oddsmakers have pretty much figured that out too, which is why you might think that the lines on this week?s games look higher than you?d expect. In this case the line is not high enough, as my math model favors Green Bay by 11 ? points. In addition to the line value the Packers apply to a 35-6-1 ATS subset of a 68-26-2 ATS playoff situation. I?ll take Green Bay in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less, for 4-Stars at -7 or less, and for 2-Stars at -10 ? or -11 points.



NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) 33 Jacksonville 17
12-Jan-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
A lot of pundits give Jacksonville a good shot at an upset in this game, but the Jaguars aren?t good enough defensively to hang with the Patriots. Jacksonville is equipped offensively to have decent success in this game, but I just don?t see them stopping New England?s offense.
Jacksonville should be able to run the ball with success, as the Jaguars averaged 4.8 ypr while the Patriots have allowed 4.4 ypr this season, and efficient quarterback David Garrard (6.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) should have decent success throwing against a Patriots? pass defense that is 0.7 yppp better than average. Garrard also doesn?t make many mistakes, throwing just 5 interceptions all season (although he was picked twice last week in Pittsburgh), so Jacksonville does have an advantage over New England?s defense.

The Jaguars, however, aren?t good enough defensively to stop the Patriots. The Jags are only 0.1 ypr better than average defending the run (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average team ? not including their week 17 game against Houston when they rested some starters) and they are just 0.4 yppp better than average against the pass (since pass rushing DE Paul Spicer joined the starting unit permanently in week 6). Tom Brady had the best season of any quarterback in history and he averaged 7.8 yppp this season (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB) while throwing just 8 interceptions against 50 touchdown passes. Teams that gave the Patriots problems were teams that could generate a pass rush without blitzing too much and only Spicer is a good pass rusher among the defensive linemen (8.5 sacks). If the Jaguars choose to blitz to get pressure on Brady they take a risk that they?ll get burned, as Brady is quick to respond to blitzes and usually finds the open receiver quickly. The Patriots probably won?t get to their 37 points per game average, but they should get pretty close to that.

My math model only favors New England by 9 points in this game, but the Patriots have consistently out-played the math projections this season and have a scoring margin that is 6 points more than their stats would predict. Jacksonville out-played their stats by 1 point this season, so adding 5 points to the math model projection of a 9 point margin would give you New England by 14 points, which is about what the pointspread is. This game is very tough to call, but giving Bill Belichick and this staff an extra week to prepare will make the Patriots even tougher to compete with and Tom Brady is 38-16-3 ATS in his career at home when not favored by 20 points or more, including 5-0 ATS this season and 4-1-1 ATS in the playoffs). I?ll lean slightly with New England and I have no opinion on the total.



3 Star Selection
DALLAS (-7.5) 28 NY Giants 12
13-Jan-08 01:30 PM Pacific Time
New York was out of character last week in beating Tampa Bay, as the Giants committed no turnovers and were plus 3 in turnover margin. New York was -9 in turnover margin for the season heading into that game (while Tampa Bay was +13 in TO margin), so don?t expect the Giants to be turnover free again this week. Eli Manning looked in control of the offense, but he?s played error free football before and then looked horrible the very next week. The inconsistent Manning has rarely played error free in consecutive games and he?s actually been horrible in games following a game in which he did not throw an interception. In the last two seasons Manning has averaged a horrible 4.9 yards per pass play with 14 interceptions in 9 games after not throwing a pick in the previous game, including 4.3 yppp and 8 picks in 4 such games this season. Manning may appear to be a better quarterback the last two weeks than he?s been all season but there is certainly no indication that he will continue to play well ? in fact it?s just the opposite. Manning averaged a sub-par 5.7 yppp this season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and I don?t expect him to have much success against a Dallas defense that is 1.0 yppp better than average from week 4 on when star LB Greg Ellis joined the lineup after missing the first 3 games (for a second straight season the Cowboys were poor defensively without Ellis and good defensively with him). New York?s offensive strength in a rushing attack that averaged 4.7 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.1 ypr to an average team), but the ground game will be slowed a bit by a solid Cowboys? run defense that gave up 4.1 ypr to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team. Overall, the Cowboys have a significant advantage with their defense over the Giants? offense and New York averaged just 4.5 yards per play at home against the Cowboys in week 10 (the good offensive production by the Giants at Dallas in week 1 was against a Cowboys? defense without Ellis).
The Giants defense is also better than their season numbers, as the 8.8 yards per play that they allowed the Cowboys in week 1 was a game in which Michael Strahan and CB Sam Madison did not start. Madison was put into the starting lineup the following week and the Giants? defense has 0.6 yppl better than average in 16 games since then. Dallas was 0.9 yppl better than average for the season offensively (6.1 yppl against temas that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Cowboys averaged 6.0 yppl in a 31-20 win at New York in week 10. Star WR Terrell Owens has practiced this week and is expected to play and those that remember Owens? great play in the Super Bowl for the Eagles a few years ago with a broken leg have no doubt that Owens will perform well with his sprained ankle. The Cowboys are 0.9 yppl better than average offensively, so they have an advantage over the Giants? defense in this game. The key to the Giants? defense is a pass rush that averages 3.2 sacks per game but the elusive Tony Romo was sacked a total of just 3 times in 2 games against New York this season, which may be why he has played so well against them (if you can avoid the pressure than throwing against a sub-par Giants? secondary is not that tough to do). My math model projects 5.7 yppl for Dallas in this game, which should be more than enough to pull away from a Giants team that is expected to struggle offensively.

Overall my math model favors Dallas by 8 points in this game, so there really isn?t any line value. However, Dallas applies to a 21-3 ATS playoff situation while New York applies to a negative 6-35-1 ATS playoff situation. Dallas also applies to a very strong 46-8-1 ATS situation that is 20-0 ATS recently. I?ll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ? or -10 points. I?ll also lean with the Under in this game.



San Diego (+9) 17 INDIANAPOLIS 24
13-Jan-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Chargers? defense has given Peyton Manning fits in recent years, including a horrible 6 interception performance in San Diego earlier this season. The Chargers were also the first team to beat the Colts in 2005 after Indy started the season 13-0. There are theories that Manning has trouble with good 3-4 defensive schemes and his recent problems with Pittsburgh and San Diego certainly give some credence to that hypothesis. That week 10 meeting between these teams happen to be the first game in which All-Pro CB Antonio Cromartie was in the starting lineup and the Chargers? defense has been great ever since. San Diego has allowed just 4.4 yards per play in 9 games with Cromartie in the starting lineup (against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team) and that unit stacks up evenly against a Colts? attack that is 0.7 yppl better than average with Peyton Manning at quarterback. Manning gets favorite target Marvin Harrison back in the lineup this week after missing all but the first 3 games this season. Manning?s numbers in those 3 games with Harrison were outstanding (8.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) but it?s tough to say whether Harrison will be as effective as usual so I?ll only make a slight adjustment for his return (i.e. I?ll use Manning?s full season stats, which includes those first 3 games, instead of using just his stats from the games without Harrison as I?ve been doing most of the season).
While the Chargers? defense looks up to the task of containing the Colts? offense I am not so sure that their offense will be able to do their share with star TE Antonio Gates questionable to play. Gates dislocated his toe in the Chargers? win over Tennessee last week and he hasn?t practiced at all this week and will be a game time decision. If Gates plays he probably won?t be playing at full speed and Philip Rivers would surely struggle against the Colts? great pass defense. Rivers has been 0.4 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he averages 8.4 yards per pass when he throws a pass to Gates, compared to 6.3 yards per pass attempt to any other receiver. Rivers goes from 0.4 yppp better than average with Gates to 0.1 yppp worse than average without him and I?ll assume he?s out for this game (or at least not as effective as usual). The Colts? defense was a very good 1.1 yppp better than averaged defending the pass this season (5.1 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense ? excluding their week 17 game when their starters didn?t play much), so Rivers would likely have trouble throwing the ball even if Gates was 100%. San Diego does have LaDainian Tomlinson to run the ball, but San Diego?s rushing attack has actually been no better than average this season, averaging 4.3 ypr against teams that would combine to allow 4.3 ypr to an average team. The Colts are only 0.2 ypr better than average defensively, so Tomlinson could be a factor. Overall, the Chargers offense is average without Gates and the Colts are much better than average defensively, so it will be tough for San Diego to move the ball consistently. San Diego only averaged 3.8 ypr, 3.3 yppp and 3.5 yppl in their week 10 win over the Colts, as that win was the function of two return touchdowns and a +3 in turnover margin. In fact, to win that game by only 2 points despite having 2 return TD?s and 6 interceptions is an indication of how much better the Colts may be.

Overall, my math model favors Indy by just 8 points while assuming that Gates won?t play (and he may), so I?ll lean slightly with San Diego plus 7 ? points or more and I will also lean with the Under in this game as both defenses are very good.

 

[GIANTS007]

WINNING POINTS



*Green Bay over Seattle by 14
Matt Hasselbeck won?t be making any brass scoring predictions because
this playoff game isn?t going into overtime.The Packers beat the Seahawks
in overtime at home four seasons ago to win a wildcard playoff game when
Al Harris returned a Hasselbeck pass for a touchdown after Hasselbeck said,
?We want the ball and we?re going to score,? during the overtime coin flip.
The Packers are home, rested, healthy, have a solid defense, a balanced bigplay
offense, underrated special teams and solid coaching. The Seahawks
can match the Packers in coaching and have playmakers on defense. But
Hasselbeck isn?t Brett Favre.Shaun Alexander isn?t the runner he was before
guard Steve Hutchinson left for free agency and fullback Mack Strong
retired. The Seahawks are 8-1 at home this season. They dominated four
games against San Francisco and St. Louis, whose combined record was 8-
24. But away from Qwest Field, Seattle was 3-5. Seattle coach Mike
Holmgren is 1-3 at Lambeau Field against his former team.The Seahawks are
0-2 in road playoff games under Holmgren.Their road to the playoffs was a
marshmallow roast.The Seahawks met only two teams that won double-digits
games, losing 21-0 to Pittsburgh and 33-30 to Cleveland in overtime. If
you discount their wins against the Rams and 49ers, the Seahawks would
rank second-to-last in the NFC in defense and third-worst defensively in the
entire NFL. Their defense, without their loud stadium crowd, is far less
intimidating on the road. All Green Bay has done this season is win and
cover games,going 12-3-1 ATS.The Seahawks can?t run any more.Their passing
attack isn?t strong enough to overcome the cold-weather elements at
Lambeau and star cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Harris.The Packers,on
the other hand, have become a balanced machine thanks to the emergence
of Ryan Grant. Favre?s play-action fakes now mean something.The Packers
have the deepest set of wideouts in the NFC with Donald Driver, Greg
Jennings, James Jones and Koren Robinson.The Seahawks? best hope is in
getting turnovers Seattle was an impressive plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways.
However, Favre has done a much better job this season of limiting
his turnovers. He completed a career-best 66.5 percent of his passes, while
throwing for 28 TDs.The Seahawks breezed because they were in a weak
division.They don?t have the goods to step up here. GREEN BAY 28-14.




*New England over Jacksonville by 7
Are the Jaguars the most dangerous type of playoff foe, or the same inconsistent
team that can?t win in the postseason and nearly lost to the Steelers
last week after leading 28-10? The Jaguars like to believe they have become
relevant again among the hierarchy, even though last Saturday?s playoff victory
was their first since 1999. We?re buying into that somewhat.
Unfortunately for the Jaguars, they draw New England.This isn?t to say the
Jaguars can?t cover ? they certainly can ? but winning could prove difficult.
The Patriots are on a march to prove they are the greatest team of all-time.
So far the qualifications are there: unbeaten season, 19 straight victories,
Tom Brady an MVP season capped by an all-time high 50 touchdown passes
and Randy Moss setting a single-season touchdown record for receivers.
This is the challenge facing the Jaguars.They have two key things going ?
they can run and stop the run.The Jaguars led the AFC in rushing, finishing
No. 2 overall in the NFL averaging just under 150 yards per game on the
ground. Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined for 1,970 rushing
yards and 14 touchdowns.David Garrard was surprisingly steady and also is
effective running when flushed out of the pocket.The Patriots are solid on
defense and extremely well-coached.Their offense scored a league-record
589 points, an average of 36.8 points per game. New England can?t score,
though, if it doesn?t have the ball. Jacksonville has the ingredients to effectively
play ball-control. Having an extra week of rest definitely should help
New England. However, the Patriots haven?t been real sharp. Perhaps they
continue flat. New England has covered only one of its past six games,
while looking vulnerable in narrow victories against the Eagles and Ravens.
They beat four of their last six foes ? Eagles, Ravens, Jets and Giants ? by a
combined 19 points. That?s an average victory margin of 4.7 points. Only
the Giants of those teams qualified for the postseason. Jacksonville?s
defense ranked a respectable 10th in scoring, yielding 19 points per contest,
while placing 12th overall giving up 313.8 yards per game.The Jaguars
have a ball-hawking secondary coming up with 20 interceptions, tied for
fourth-highest in the NFL.Weather could factor in this matchup. Despite
being from Florida, though, the Jaguars are built for bad conditions as they
proved twice in inclement weather at Pittsburgh during the last four
weeks. It?s the Patriots, with their precision passing attack, that could be
hurt more by wet, snowy and windy weather. NEW ENGLAND 27-20.

 

[GIANTS007]

THE SPORTS REPORTER


SATURDAY, JANUARY 12
*GREEN BAY over SEATTLE by 2
The early forecast says 21 degrees, dry and 9 mph winds for the Lambeau Field area -- just
another nice, cold day in Green Bay. It also says that besides old reliable Donald Driver, some of
Bret Favre?s young pups in the receiving corps are untested under pressure in sub-freezing
weather. Packers? head coach Mike McCarthy, in 1999 the quarterbacks coach for the Packers
in Mike Holmgren?s final Green Bay season before he bolted for Seattle, tutored Matt Hasselbeck
when Space Boy was Brett Favre?s rookie back-up that season, so there is plenty of offensive
intimacy among the participants in this match-up. There are also plenty of similarities in the production
of each offensive unit this season. Contentious post-season road losses have been a
trademark of Space Boy Matt and the Flying Holmgrens since the ex-Packers? head coach
(1992-98) and Bill Walsh Coaching Tree descendant got the Seahawks going again. Both of
Seattle?s post-season road trips ? in 2003 to Green Bay and 2006 to Chicago ? featured the
Seahawks taking about +8 and losing in overtime. The 2003 game at Green Bay was Space
Boy?s infamous ?We?ll take the ball, and we?re gonna score,? speech made on Favre?s turf at the
overtime coin toss. Last season, Seattle?s defense was pretty banged-up when they went into
Chicago and allowed a Rex (Ugh) Grossman-led offense to gain 377 yards against them. But
Seattle?s offense moved the ball well enough to squeeze 108 yards from RB Shaun Alexander
and score 24 points. Little errors at crucial moments on both offense and defense cost them.
"We had this game," said DB Jordan Babineaux. "It was right there for us. Said Sports Reporter
readers: ?It was an easy Midweek Update Best Bet cover!? Bolstered this off-season with the
signings of safety Deon Grant and DE Patrick Kearney, the Seattle defense now owns the NFC?s
best opposing QB Rating (73.0) and the NFL?s best Defensive Yards Per Point Rating (19.8).
Matched up against Mr. Favre, we now get to see whether those ratings and ranks were a function
of facing Leinart/Warner and Smith/Dilfer twice, or whether Kearney?s extra sacks and
Grant?s improved coverage (compared to the discarded Michael Boulware) are as ?for real? as
the Marcus Trufant singled out in this space last week, who went out and changed the game
against the Redskins with an INT return for a TD. Since Green Bay?s October 21 bye week, the
Packers have played exactly one competently balanced opponent ? Dallas ? and their 12-3-1
ATS record might be a little past its value peak. GREEN BAY, 22-20.





*NEW ENGLAND over JACKSONVILLE by 17
The Jags just concluded a 3-0 SU and ATS sweep of the Steelers that had begun in Week 2 of
the 2006 season. They have Pittsburgh?s number, but the Patriots had Jacksonville?s number in
a first-round playoff match-up in 2005 (28-3), and also in a late-season 24-21 win at
Jacksonville a year ago when the Jags were desperately seeking a win to stay alive for the postseason,
while the Patriots were in coasting mode. Jacksonville did a nice job taking advantage
of a Steelers team that was hanging by a thread, missing its very important #1 running back and
a pair of offensive linemen. They got to Ben Roethlisberger a lot, but a lot of teams got to Big Ben
this season ? he was sacked for 21 yards per game! Allowing a team hanging by a thread to
come back and erase your 18-point lead not a good sign for the Jags in this match-up against
a better opponent, a fresh team with no important injuries. Opponents have tried to get to Tom
Brady all season, and mostly failed. Jacksonville?s 153 rushing yards per game looks nice until
you realize that they can rush for all the yards they want to when down by 14 points ? they?re
still gonna have to punt a few times and risk going down by three scores. David Garrard as a
passer while trailing? Not gonna want that, sorry. The early weather forecast is for an overnight
low of 24 degrees on a dry and calm night, and football wagering nation is currently divided into
two groups of people: Group A thinks that the Patriots -- now 1-5 ATS in their last six games after
being 8-0 ATS to start ? are about to flip a ?re-dominate and reverse? switch and roll a
Jacksonville team that was 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS in approximately the same span of New England?s
less dominant winning efforts. Group B thinks that laying two scores in a match-up against a
Jags team that averaged 27.1 points per game this regular season, with a Patriots team that
allowed an average of 17.6 points per game in the regular season, is a dicey proposition. By the
way, the 17-0 SU Miami Dolphins of 1972 won their AFC Playoff Games by only 6 points against
Cleveland and 4 points against Pittsburgh. But there is no real connection between that team 35
years ago, and these Pats. NEW ENGLAND, 34-17.

 

[GIANTS007]

THE MAX


NFL Divisional Round
Seahawks @Packers
January 12th, 2007, 4:30PM EST
Line: Packers ?8, 40
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
What the Packers have done this season is pretty
amazing. Many questioned Brett Favre?s decision to
return this season, as his play had fallen off in
recent years and there weren?t many (any?)
personnel analysts who thought the Packers were
poised for a big year. In fact, the Packers have the
youngest team in the NFL this season, with a roster
that entered the season littered with unproven
players. But the leadership of Favre and the
emergence of a running game contributed to a fine
season for the Packers. The defense chipped in as
well. With Charles Woodson and Al Harris manning
the CB slots, the Packers have a very sound pass
defense. An easy division (Bears and Lions
disappointed, Vikings were hot late but not when
they played the Packers) helped Green Bay. It is
worth noting however, that in the first six weeks of
the campaign, the Pack defeated three eventual
playoff teams. The only playoff team the Seahawks
beat was the Bucs in their opener at home. Green
Bay benefited from the weak division and weak
conference, but they are well-coached, have
excellent leadership, and truly are a team that is
better than the sum of their parts.
Interestingly, these defenses are almost identical,
both in the top third of the league, both giving up
18.2 points per game, both allowing 5 yards per
play, though as we noted on the front page that is
something of a mixed blessing. The Seahawks
defense really came up big, huge actually, when
their offense and special teams tried to give the
game away. The D held Washington to a FG
attempt (which they missed) after not fielding the
kickoff after falling behind 14-13. Then after what
appeared to be a killer Hasselbeck interception, they
gave up only 6 yards of field position. Then the
interception return on the miscommunication
between Collins and Moss put the game away. This
is an experienced defense, manned by key players
who were part of the Super Bowl run two years ago.
While you have to respect the Packers and what
they?ve accomplished, their home field edge is
lessened here by the Seattle players and coaches
with ties to Green Bay. As a 7?-point playoff dog
they took the Pack to overtime at this site four years
ago. With both clubs somewhat unproven, we?ll
take a gander at the veteran team getting significant
points from a team full of playoff upstarts to keep
this one close. Packers by 3.



Jaguars @ Patriots
January 12th, 2007, 8:00PM EST
Line: Patriots ?13, 48
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Jags are playing terrific football right now. That was
a nice win they got up in Pittsburgh, their second
win in three weeks in a very difficult place to win.
But they?re in pretty deep here, going against a
team that remarkably zipped through the entire
season undefeated, set oodles of offensive records,
and whose defense ranks 4th in the league rankings
(based on raw yardage), allowing 288 yards per
game. The age of the Patriots defense is a
concern, and you remember how slow they looked
in their playoff game against the Colts last year, but
the club was riddled by a flu bug at the time.
Obviously this is a very legit club with few flaws.
People still don?t seem to realize that Jacksonville
has a much more lively offense than they are given
credit for. Since David Garrard returned from injury
the Jags have scored 24 points or more in each of
the 9 games. That?s a pretty impressive for a team
that is widely described as being built around
defense and the running game. Garrard had only 3
interceptions all season long but tossed a pair in
Pittsburgh. The Jaguars concerns include the health
of their defensive line. DT John Henderson was
knocked out of the Steelers game with a hamstring
injury. He tried to come back but didn?t last. His
replacement, Grady Jackson, cut by the Falcons in
mid-season and pushing 400 pounds, is not an
every-down guy right now. Outstanding DT Marcus
Stroud is already out for the year with injury. The
Jags received some ?silver platter? points in their
playoff win, scoring on a 1-yard drive after a long
Maurice Jones-Drew kickoff return and scoring on a
63-yard interception return. But those were plays
they made, and the 340-239 yardage advantage of
the Steelers had a lot to do with the shape of the
game, with the Jaguars needing only a single yard
to score 14 points the ball kept going back to the
Steelers, who eventually ended up throwing caution
to the wind and opening up their offense to come
back from the deficit. So while Jacksonville
shouldn?t be downgraded for the 101-yard edge for
Pittsburgh, it is worth noting that it wasn?t a
dominant performance.
This veteran Patriots team knows how to come out
firing in Foxborough in the postseason. They are 6-
0 under Belichick in home playoff games, with the
last four being the covers (starting with the most
recent, covers by 12, 16?, 17, and 7.) Think very
highly of both ballclubs and this line seems high.
But New England, rested for this one, has a history
of taking no prisoners in home playoff games, so
we?ll pass for now.

 

[GIANTS007]

THE SPORTS MEMO

Seattle at Green Bay -8 O/U 40
Recommendation: Green Bay
The Packers have been prepping, resting and scheming the last two weeks
while the Seahawks fought through a tough battle with Washington for the
right to travel to Lambeau. Some would argue momentum from a first round
win as a plus for the underdog Seahawks, and it may very well be, but we saw
a sloppy performance that nearly turned disastrous after a five minute span
of giving up one TD that cut the lead in half, a turnover and subsequent score
that relinquished the lead and a mental error on a kickoff that resulted in yet
another turnover which nearly buried them. Matt Hasselbeck was not sharp,
the receiving corps which was rumored to be healthy looked shaky and
dropped passes and the absence of a rushing attack (which gained only 77
yards on 21 carries last week) will eventually do them in this week. The Packers
have been very strong at home both SU and ATS traditionally and this
season was no different as they pushed their way to a 6-1-1 record against the
number in front of the ?cheese-heads?. Green Bay has become a complete
team after relying almost exclusively on the pass early on this season thanks
to Ryan Grant and a developing offensive line that has taken a real liking to
the zone blocking scheme they employ. Grant has emerged from the stable
with five 100 yard rushing efforts and at least one TD in each game since
week 12. It brings balance and legitimacy to an offense that ranks second
overall in total yardage and fourth in points scored while being led by a true
MVP candidate in Brett Favre. While Seattle?s pressure caused Todd Collins
a lot of misery we saw that the short to intermediate passing game can neutralize
some of that pressure and that is exactly the type of offense Green
Bay runs. The Pack has covered in 13 of their last 17 games overall, including
four straight as a favorite in this price range. They improve that number
to five straight this weekend and send former coach Mike Holmgren home.

Jacksonville at New England -13 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Over
The Pats accomplished the impossible by going 16-0 SU through the regular
season. The team, however, was either disinterested or perhaps just
overvalued as the season wound down, because despite finishing with
the league?s top rated offense in yardage, passing yardage and points
per game scored they covered just once in their final six games. The Jags
were money in the bank this season with an 11-5 record against the number
during the regular season (bettered only by the Browns in the AFC)
including a rock solid 6-3 ATS mark away from home. While Tom Brady
and Randy Moss have set all kinds of records (Brady?s 50 TD to eight
INT ratio, Moss? 23 TD catches) David Garrard, Fred Taylor and Maurice
Jones-Drew have quietly established a strong offensive core. The Jags
have scored no fewer than 24 points since a Monday Night Football affair
against Indy in mid October, a stretch of games that included road outings
against Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Indy, Pittsburgh as well as strong
showings at home against Buffalo and San Diego. We know the Pats can
score, just look at their 37 ppg average. Match that up against a Jacksonville
defense that is decidedly down this season from recent editions
and whose secondary looked extremely susceptible (even with Rashean
Mathis picking off passes) and this total looks cheap. Weather may be
cold but the wind is supposed to be a non-factor according to preliminary
reports which shouldn?t hinder either attack. Play this one over.

 

[GIANTS007]

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS

The Patriots beat JAX 24-21 LY as a 3 pt AD in late Dec. NE had a 10-7 halftime lead & both had a
pair of 60+ yd TD drives in the 2H. With 1:46 left Garrard was sk?d & fmbl?d & NE held on for the win. NE
had 22-12 FD & 359-309 yd edges in the game. NE is 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS vs teams with a winning record
while JAX is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS. NE has 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with a 415-294 yd edge & 35-15 avg
score. JAX is 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS on the road TY with a 339-327 yd edge and 25-24 avg score. There are
4 common foes (SD, BUF, IND & PIT) with NE going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS while JAX is 4-2 SU & ATS. JAX
doesn?t have any Pro Bowlers while NE has 8 & Brady was voted 2007?s NFL MVP. Belichick is 12-2 SU &
8-5-1 ATS with NE in the playoffs including 3 Super Bowl wins while Del Rio is 1-1 SU & ATS in the playoffs
including a 28-3 loss to NE in the ?05 WC game as a 7 pt AD. Del Rio started a rusty Leftwich coming back
from inj & NE blizted him ruthlessly with Garrard only seeing time when the game was out of reach.
The Jags surprised the NFL by cutting Byron Leftwich just before season started & going with David
Garrard. Garrard has been very efficient (19-5 ratio) & didn?t throw his 1st int until the 2nd IND game.
He is a good fit in OC Dirk Koetter?s offense & after scoring 24 or more points only 19 times in Del Rio?s
first 4 years JAX has hit the number 11 times TY. Since his return from an ankle injury in mid-Nov, JAX
is avg an NFL best 34 ppg (NE 29.7). The Jags are actually a more balanced offense than LY & Fred
Taylor has avg?d 120 ypg (7.7) in his L5 games. JAX doesn?t have standout talent at the WR spot but
Reggie Williams is becoming a quality scoring threat with 10 TD?s & Northcutt is one of the better slot
WR. JAX OL has started the L8 games together is 15th in the NFL in sacks as Garrard is being sacked
once every 15.5 pass att?s. The Jags #12 defense has always had a reputation of being physical & is only
allowing 88 ypg (3.9) rushing on the year if the season opener vs TEN is omitted. While they did lose DT
Stroud (ankle) they picked up Grady Jackson after he was cut by ATL & he has been a very good next
to John Henderson. JAX could get MLB Peterson back here from a broken hand but WLB Daryl Smith
has done an excellent job in his place. JAX #15 pass defense is headed by Rashean Mathis who is a
lockdown CB & rookie FS Reggie Nelson leads the team with 5 int. The Jaguars have our #20 special
teams unit despite holding teams to just 7.8 ypc on PR & 19.7 ypc on KR.
NE set the NFL record for most points scored (589), TD passes (50) & TD rec in a season (Moss 23).
TY?s #1 offense is largely a Run & Shoot style that maximizes the talent at the WR position. Brady finished
1st in the NFL win comp % (68.9), yards (4806), ypa (8.31), & QBR (117.2). He has TD/int ratio of 50-8 &
really only struggled twice TY (1H vs BAL & 2H vs MIA). Previously NE had spread the ball around but TY
only NE?s top 4 WR?s caught passes & Wes Welker wound up tied for the NFL lead in rec?s (112). Donte?
Stallworth started strong but only had 20 rec & 0 TD?s in the 2H of the season while Jabar Gaffney had 24 of
36 rec in the 2H of the season. TE Ben Watson has been slowed by an ankle injury but should be fine here
& Kyle Brady has been dominant as a run blocking TE. Laurence Maroney missed 3 of the first 13 games
with a groin injury & only avg?d 53 ypg (4.2) in that span. The OL only allowed 8 sacks in the first 8 games &
13 over the final 13 games & the OL started 69 of 80 games together. NE has the #2 & #4 units on 3rd Dn
with the #2 red-zone offense but #27 red-zone defense. The #4 defense has its issues vs the run with six
100 yd rushing games allowed (144 ypg 4.8) with some alarming rushing totals vs MIA, BAL & PIT. While
NT Vince Wilfork was outstanding, DE Richard Seymour was slow to recover after being on the PUP for the
first 6 games & Ty Warren had a down year. Adalius Thomas is a better fit as an OLB while Mike Vrabel had
a career year with 12.5 sacks. Tedy Bruschi was once again solid vs the run & Junior Seau was serviceable.
Asante Samuel?s dominance had teams going after Ellis Hobbs who did a good job overall. SS Rodney
Harrison has lost a step but his leadership makes the overall NE defense better & is one of Belichick?s most
trusted players. NE has our #19 spec teams unit largely due to Chris Hanson?s 36.1 net avg (24th).
While NE has looked mortal the past few games they dominated playoff teams at home with a 30
ppg margin. The Jaguars make their 2nd long trip to the Northeast & while they are known as a tough &
physical defense they have allowed 25 ppg their L7 road games. DT Henderson strained his hamstring
LW & is ?. No coach game plans better than Belichick with extra rest & he?ll have the Patriots back to
early season form with a dominating win.
FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 38 Jacksonville 17 RATING: 2★




This is the 3rd year in a row the Packers & Seahawks have met & the home team has won 2 straight.
This is the 2nd playoff meeting with GB beating SEA 33-27 in OT as a 7.5 pt HF in 2003. Hasselbeck made
the famous ?we?ll take the ball & score? comment after winning the coin toss only to see GB return an int for
a TD for the win. LY SEA beat GB 34-24 as a 10 pt HF on MNF. GB went up 21-12 early in the 2H but SEA
had B2B TD drives of 62 & 77 yds & GB hit a 34 yd FG. Favre turned the ball over on each of GB?s final 3
drives. SEA has only had 2 winning seasons on the road in their 32 year history going 3-5 SU & ATS TY. GB
reestablished itself at Lambeau with a 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS record. GB has the #8 & #7 home units (+6 TO?s)
vs SEA?s #18 & #21 road units (+1 TO?s). There are 4 common reg season foes (STL, CHI, PHI & CAR) with
GB going 3-2 SU & ATS being outgained 311-305 with a 21.4-21 avg score. SEA is 4-1 SU & ATS with a
327-313 yd edge & 25-17 avg score. SEA has faced 3 teams with a winning record in the reg season (1-2
SU & ATS) & has our #32 sked. GB has our #22 sked & is 3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. While this is McCarthy?s 1st
playoff game as a HC he is on a 17-3 SU & 15-4-1 ATS run. Holmgren has vastly more playoff exp but is
6-5-1 ATS on the playoff road. SEA overall is 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs including SB 40.
Brett Favre has continued to refine his game & GB has the #2 offense & a 13-3 record to show for it.
Favre has posted 10 games with a QBR of 100+ TY & has matured along with his skill position players as
he is letting them make plays instead of forcing the ball. He has snapped up the NFL?s career passing TD?s,
yards & int records. GB traded a 6th RD DC to NYG for RB Ryan Grant who has rushed for 93 ypg (5.1) since
becoming the official starter with five 100 yd rushing games. GB had the #32 rush off over the first 8 weeks
& finished #7 over the L8W. The receiving corps is what makes the Packers so dangerous as 4 players have
47 or more rec?s with Donald Driver being the top option, Greg Jennings being the deep threat (17.4 ypc, 3rd
best), Donald Lee developing into a starting TE & James Jones as the slot WR. Despite only all?g 19 sacks
(3rd) GB has started 7 different OL combos as HC McCarthy hasn?t been satisfied with the OG play. GB is 8th
& 3rd on 3rd Dns with the #14 off & #8 def in the red-zone. The Packers? #11 D is very well balanced all-around
& DE Aaron Kampman quietly had another solid season with 12 sacks (15.5 LY). GB rotates in DE?s Cullen
Jenkins for rush defense & KGB (9.5 sacks) in pass situations. The Pack has all?d seven 100 yd rushing games
(134 ypg, 4.4) but has only pulled in 4 sacks over the L5 games. GB?s LB unit is very underrated as Barnett
& Hawk are at a PB level & Poppinga is one of the better SLB?s. Their #12 pass D is headed by Al Harris &
Charles Woodson who give the team one of the best CB tandems in the NFL. GB came into the year with our
#32 spec teams unit but finished 8th as their coverage units are only allowing 5.9 on PR?s & 20.9 on KR?s.
It?s not often that a team wins its 4th straight div title & is regarded as flying under the radar but that?s what
SEA has done TY. The Seahawks offense underwent a major shift after the CLE game as broken ribs & a left
wrist inj slowed RB Alexander down to 62 ypg (3.3) over the first 8 & while SEA avg 338 ypg & 21 ppg they were
only 4-4 (3-5 ATS). Afterward Holmgren put the ball into Hasselbeck?s & his now-healthy WR corps? hands &
while they only gained 361 ypg (28 ppg), they went 6-2 SU & ATS. Hasselbeck has passed for 243 ypg (64%)
with a 15-5 ratio (94.0 QBR) in the L8W making the Pro Bowl with WR Engram having a career year. Holmgren
is running 4-WR sets with Branch being the speed threat & Burleson going over the middle with Hackett working
the slot. SEA?s OL started the first 15 games together with LT Jones being rested vs ATL. SEA made a pair of
great pickups by acquiring DE Kerney (14.5) who is 2007?s NFC sack king to bolster the DL & Jim Mora Jr to
coach the DB?s & be Holmgren?s eventual successor. CB Trufant became a complete CB & is off to his first Pro
Bowl but the LB unit is the backbone of the SEA defense. Pro Bowl LB?s Tatupu & Peterson are an outstanding
tandem & SLB Hill is very underrated. SEA?s #22 pass defense is highly underrated allowing 59% with a 17-22
ratio. SEA is 13th in our special teams rankings & K Josh Brown has a solid rep as a game winner.
LW SEA caught a Redskins team on a 5 day turnaround that traveled cross country to a very hostile
environment. Now SEA has to go to GB which is their 5th road game in 8 weeks. GB held foes to 9 ppg
in its L4 HG?s & a windy day at Lambeau could be a problem for a pass heavy visitor. GB has won its L5
games by an avg of 20 ppg covering each. SEA has only beaten 1 playoff team in the reg season TY &
that was TB at home in the opener. GB is 12-3-1 ATS TY & advances to the next round with a win here.
FORECAST: GREEN BAY 31 SEATTLE 14 RATING: 3★

 

[GIANTS007]

Sharpmoves***

$100 Offshore Elite GB-Sea over

 

[GIANTS007]

WILD BILL


Packers -8 (1 unit) Seahawks last played in GB in 2006 and lost 23-17 and the Packers were not as strong then as they are now. 13 pt ave margin at home and home field is a great advantage for Brett Favre's team in this spot. Green Bay 28 Seattle 17.


Patriots -13 (1 unit) Jaguars got their hard fought victory on the road last week and Patriots have owned the Jags in this series and last won 28-3 at home in 2006. Patriots receivers will riddle the Jag secondary, especially if the Jags key on Moss, as Gaffney & Watson could have big days, along with a healthier Maroney. New England 34 Jacksonville 14.


6 1/2 pt teaser: (2 units) Patriots -6 1/2, Packers -1 1/2, over 39 1/2 Dallas-NYG, Dallas -1

 

[GIANTS007]

MARC LAWRENCE

GREEN BAY over Seattle by 11

The Pack is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2005, where they were
last bounced in a first round game here at Lambeau Field. Before we get too
deep into this matchup, keep this thought foremost in your mind: like a hot
chocolate vendor, QB Brett Favre is at his best the faster the temperature drops.
That?s confirmed by the fact that, in his NFL career, he is 36-6 SU & 24-13-5
ATS at home from Game Thirteen out ? including 21-2 SU & 17-3-3 ATS when
facing an opponent off a win. Add to that the fact his counterpart, Matt
Hasselbeck, has covered the number in only 10 of 35 tries off a win in nondivision
battles. While Seattle rolled to a 21-point victory last week against
Washington they did so despite being outgained, 319-304, in the contest, as
they are just 9-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season. That win improved the Seahawks
mark to 2-2 against winning teams this season, hardly a number to hang one?s
hat on this time of the year. The clincher, though, is the success of rested home
teams in the post-season. While they?ve struggled overall of late (0-4 ATS last
season), rested hosts are 15-1 SU & 13-2-1 ATS as favorite of > 7 points
when taking on a .600 > foe off a win since 1990. Get the hot cocoa and
marshmallows ready, Martha. Because after all, by Favre, they make some of
the best hot chocolate in the land in these parts.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 12 4:30 PM ET, FOX TV



NEW ENGLAND over Jacksonville by 10
In this corner, the undefeated heavyweight champs of the NFL, with a perfect 16-0
record ? the New England Patriots. Their opponent, hailing from Jacksonville and
sporting a knockout punch with a 12-5 mark ? including eleven consecutive games
with 24 or more points under their belt ? the Jaguars. Adding to the Pats? chance of
shattering the ?72 Dolphins? undefeated Super Bowl legacy is the fact that playoff
teams with lofty win percentages of .900 > are 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS since 1980? but
0-3 ATS the last three games. After starting the year with eight consecutive pointspread
covers, New England fell somewhat to the pressure of carrying an undefeated ledger
when they closed out 2-6 ATS to conclude the campaign. They?ll host a Jaguar squad
they defeated on this field in the 2005 playoffs, one who finished 7-1 ATS in its final
eight games. With that we note Jack Del Rio?s lofty 13-2 ATS mark as a dog with
revenge in games from a loss he?s suffered throughout his NFL career. Fundamentally
Jack poses a potential problem as their strength ? a rush offense that averages 4.6
YPR ? goes into the Pats? Achilles heel ? a rush defense that surrenders 4.4 DYPR.
Yes, Tom Brady against David Garrard is a huge edge in New England?s favor. And
Bill Belichick?s unbeaten career post-season log at home (7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS)
looks to be a knockout waiting to happen, but the impost and the pressure make the
Jags a tempting underdog. Let?s get ready to rummmbbblle.

 

[GIANTS007]

Seattle at Green Bay
By: TOTALS 4 U

Seattle makes the trip to the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field to take on the franchise that Seahawk Head Coach Mike Holmgren (170-109 in 16th head-coaching season) guided to a pair of Super Bowls following the 1996 and 1997 seasons.

Seattle?s front seven puts all kinds of heat on the pocket with tackles Brandon Mebane and Rocky Bernard strong at both absorbing and splitting blockers, while ends Patrick Kearney and Darryl Tapp terrorize from the edges and bat down balls. Key to Defensive Coordinator John Marshall's scheme is sending SLB Leroy Hill and WLB Julian Peterson on the blitz, made possible by the much improved pass coverage by his squad this season. Safeties Deon Grant and Brian Russell have been physical, the play of nickel back and all-around football player Jordan Babineaux has demanded more playing time, while LCB Marcus Trufant has exploded into one of the league?s top one-on-one corners in his 5th season as a pro. And then there?s the man in the middle. 3rd-year MLB Lofa Tatupo has a remarkable sense for the ball and a relentless motor that controls the action from sideline to sideline with the unmistakable brand of intensity that few outside of the Fraternity of Polynesian Players bring to the field. If I were a General Manager, I?d stack my team with kids from the islands and drink ?Tiny Bubbles? from the Lombardi Trophy! By the numbers, Seattle allowed 18.2 points on 102.8 rush yards and 219.1 pass yards per game while racking up 45 sacks, 20 picks, and 23 fumble recoveries during the regular season.

On the offensive side of the ball, QB Matt Hasselbeck is having a spectacular season behind the makeshift line of LT Walter Jones, LG Rob Sims, C Chris Spencer, RG Chris Gray, and RT Sean Locklear ? especially considering he has been without his starting wide receivers much of the season. Ostensibly, WR D.J. Hackett and Deion Branch make up the first string, but due to multiple reoccurring injuries, this pair has played less than two full games together coming into this weekend where they will get the call. In their spots have thrived Nate Burleson and WR Bobby Engram, each producing career seasons. Expect to see plenty of each on Saturday in Coach Holmgren?s three and four wide receiver sets. Rushing the ball effectively for the Birds this season has been a struggle with Shaun Alexander (207 for 716 and 4 TD) managing just 3.5 yards per carry, while backup 5?11? 216 RB Maurice Morris (140 for 628 and 4 TD rushing, 23 for 213 and TD receiving) has showed more promise both on the ground and through the air. Just 101.2 yards rushing (9 TD) per game compared with 247.8 passing (30 TD) has led to 36 sacks, but, hey, that?s Holmgren. It?s the 26 lost fumbles that drive him nuts, and the 24.6 points per game that still makes him one of the best offensive minds in football. It must be noted that Seattle?s regular season opponents finished with a combined record of 106-150, with only Wildcard Round losers Pittsburgh (0-21 road loss) and Tampa Bay (20-6 home win) reaching the postseason.

Green Bay (13-3, 0-0 playoffs) combined the youngest roster in the National Football League with a turn-back-the-clock season from 17th-year QB Brett Favre (356 of 535 for 4155 yards, 28 TD, 15 INT) to take NFC North Championship honors and earn the first round bye of a second seed. When Favre stated at the beginning of the 2006 campaign that GM Ted Thompson had assembled the best group of talent he had ever played with, the sports world thought that Old Brett was suffering from either too many hits to the head or an early onset of Alzheimer?s Disease. But here they are, ripping up defenses with a 378.2 yards of offense (2nd in the NFL), including 278.8 yards passing (2nd in the NFL), and 27.2 points per game, while holding Pro Football?s 3rd-best point differential behind only the Patriots and Colts. 9th-year veteran 6?0? 190 WR Donald Driver (82 for 1048 and 2 TD) has been joined by youngsters 5?11? 197 Greg Jennings (53 for 940 and 12 TD, 17.4 yards per catch), 6?1? 207 James Jones (47 for 676 and 2 TD), and 6?4? 210 Ruvell Martin (16 for 242 and 4 TD), plus 6th-year Koren Robinson (21 for 241 and TD) who has returned to the NFL with a born-again attitude after serving a one year suspension for off the field issues. Also energizing the aerial attack has been the development of 6?4? 248 TE Donald Lee (48 for 575 and 6 TD), who has clearly left 6?6? 265 Bubba Franks (18 for 132 and 3 TD), who has teased fans with glimpses of his unlimited but never entirely fulfilled talent for eight years, in the dust. Green Bay?s rushing game has taken a lot of heat this season for averaging just 99.8 yards per contest, but at 4.1 yards per carry, the pass-heavy play calling of Head Coach Mike McCarthy (21-11 in 2nd season as head coach) is as much responsible as anything. It took injuries to 5?10? rookie Brandon Jackson (75 for 267 and TD), Noah Herron, Vernand Morency, and DeShawn Wynn for the Pack to find their workhorse back in 6?1? 228 first-year RB Ryan Grant (188 for 956 and 8 TD), who has powered through defenses for a dynamite 5.1 yards per carry while displaying a burst rare for a man his size with runs of 24, 30, 23, 31, 62, 26, 24, 66, and 27 yards in just ten games as the primary ball carrier. Much credit must be given to the work of Offensive Line Coach James Campen. Tackles 6?5? 320 Chad Clifton and 6?3? 315 Mark Taucher are superb in all phases of the game, but Campen has had to mix and match the interior line all season, currently going with 6?4? 305 LG Daryn Colledge, 6?2? 295 C Scott Wells, and 6?3? 300 RG Jason Spitz, while 6?5? 304 Tony Moll backs up all three positions. Just 19 sacks surrendered in almost 600 drop-backs is absolutely superb.

Defensive Coordinator Bob Sanders has put together a crew that is both tough and deep. 6?2? 322 LDT Ryan Picket (39 T, S) has become a premier run stuffer and 6?4? 313 RDT Corey Williams (35 T, 7 S, INT) has eaten guards and centers for lunch on the way to the pocket all year. From the edge, 6?4? 270 LDE Aaron Kampman (64 T, 12 S) gets more out of his talent than any player in the NFL at the position, and although 6?4? 247 RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (26 T, 9 ? S) has lost his starting job for poor performance against the run, he continues to pile up the sacks, rotating to the field in pass situations. In the middle, 6?2? 232 MLB Nick Barnett (131 T, 3 ? S, 2 INT), 6?1? 247 WLB A.J. Hawk (105 T, S, INT), and 5?11? 211 SS Atari Bigby (86 T, 5 INT) are each swift and physical, plus few squads have a pair of corners that bring the experience of 6?1? 200 Charles Woodson (63 T, 4 INT) and 6?1? 188 Al Harris (37 T, 2 INT) ? especially key with such a young group in front of them. By the numbers, the Packers have held opponents to 18.2 points on 102.9 yards rushing and 224.0 yards passing per game while amassing 19 picks, 22 fumble recoveries, and 36 sacks. One more note. Has anyone else noted that for no obvious reason, wide receiver Ruvell Martin is the backup holder for rookie K Mason Crosby (31 of 39 field goals, 3 of 5 from 50+ yards)? A deeper look finds a former All-State High School quarterback wearing number 82.

Free winner from Totals 4 U: This Saturday marks the 267th consecutive sellout at Lambeau Field for a Packers team that has won 17 of its last 20 games, but makes the franchise's first playoff appearance in three years and has 36 players on its 53-man roster that have never played in a professional postseason game. The forecast for Green Bay is 26 degrees and 8-10 mph winds at kickoff Seattle is 3-5 on the road this year, while the Pack is 7-1 at home. Take Seattle +8 and enjoy what's likely to be the best game of the weekend!

 

[GIANTS007]

Jacksonville at New England
By: SPIKE MEASER / BIG TIME SPORTS

The New England Patriots were a perfect 16-0 during the 2007 NFL regular season. That shouldn't be news to anybody who has read a newspaper, watched television, or listened to the radio in the last couple of weeks. There is no question the Patriots accomplishments this season are well-deserving of any and all accolades. It's difficult to win an NFL game each week. It is incredibly difficult to win an NFL game EVERY week over the course of four months! So congratulations to Mr Robert Craft (owner), Scott Peoli (GM), Bill Belichick (HC) and all the players and staff associated with this organization for making history. But if there was pressure mounting with each passing week from September through December, it is magnified and multiplied exponentially now that the post season has arrived.

The ultimate goal for this New England team is 19-0, which means they will have won the Super Bowl. They potentially have a three game post season, but only if they beat a very tough Jacksonville Jaguars team Saturday night at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA. Although the week off and playing at home are certainly nice advantages for the Pats, victory will not come easy in this contest. Jack Del Rio's team is very talented and brimming with confidence. Beating the Pittsburgh Steelers twice in 21 days at Heinz Field is an indication of the physical and mental toughness of this group. But the point spread opened at 11.5 alongside a total of 48. A rather large double digit number in a playoff game gives us an indication of how much respect the odds maker has for this New England operation. But can the so-far perfect Patriots clobber another opponent and move on to the conference champiosnhip game? Or is Jacksonville a road warrior again this week? We'll reserve a call on the side for our late telephone service clients (1-800-503-4825), but we'll certainly provide a complimentary selection on the total.

At first glance, the total in this ball game seems rather high. But then one realizes the awesome firepower of the New England offense and their record of having scored 31+ points in 11 of their 16 regular season games. And let's not forget that the Jaguars have scored at least 24 points for 11 consecutive weeks, including last Staurday in the Steel City. You know the names of all the players, especially the guys that make an appearance in the end zone on a regular basis. But did you know these supposedly vaunted defenses have each allowed at least 20 touchdown passes (JAX 20, NEP 23)? Just one week ago against Pittsburgh, the Jags were torched for 337 yards and 2 scores by Ben Roethlisberger. And don't forget A J Feeley lit up the Pats secondary for 345 and 3 TD's back on November 25th. And it was Eli Manning who threw 4 touchdown passes against this New England defense the last time they were on the field (Dec 29th). So maybe this will be an aerial show of epic proportions for the right to advance in the playoffs, moving one step closer to the Super Bowl. Maybe that's why the guys that take the action set this total in the high 40's.

If this game is to see a hefty number of points, it will have to be via the airways, because these two stop units are very stingy against the run. New England has allowed just 7 rushing touchdowns this season, while J'ville has permitted only 6. While both clubs have at least one above-average ball carrier, it's likley to be the quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends that do most of the damage. That having been said, I don't believe they will wreak such havoc as to push this game past the 48 point mark. This is classic, showdown, playoff football, outdoors, in the northeast, in mid January. It's not exactly the friendly skies. The Pats grabbed 19 picks this year, while the Jags totaled 20. They both pressure the quarterback very well (NEP 47 sacks, JAX 36), and neither team allows more than 19 points per game, on average. In the combined 32 regular season games these teams played in 2007, just three opponents were able to reach the 30 point mark. This game looks like a nasty, physical slugfest, with points at a premium. We'll look for this one to come in under the posted total.

Free winner from Spike Measer / Big Time Sports: Jacksonville / New England Under 48.

 

[GIANTS007]

SHARP BETTING

seattle
jacksonville

 

[GIANTS007]

Sports Marketwatch ? NFL Week 19 ? NFL Playoffs

NFL Playoffs- Games to Watch

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of ?Public? square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual ?box-office-pool? ? to the professional sports bettor ? to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of ?Public? money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game?s betting line. They?ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. ?Public Money? dwarfs the amount of ?Sharp Money? buying back the shaded lines.

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***********edit admin

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Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

The NFL playoffs create a lot of betting interest ? and the public is solidly on the Seattle Seahawks. Almost two out every three bets is coming in on a Seattle team that trounced Washington and ended the season strongly. On the other hand, Green Bay has been ?flying under the radar? for much of the season. The public doesn?t seem to respect the Packers and this gives us value.

The line opened at Green Bay -8 (-9 at + vig at Pinnacle) but has already reached Green Bay -7 at some sportsbooks. That is a huge 1 to 2 point value near the ?key number? of 7.

Green Bay has not yet earned the public?s respect, but they have beaten many quality opponents this season and look like a solid value. Take Green Bay and be on the side of the long-term winners: the sports books.

Green Bay Packers -7

 

[GIANTS007]

ACCUSCORE

NFL forecast:
GB 25-18
NE 31-18

 

[GIANTS007]

Thank you for your purchase. Your pick is listed below
From: Stevie Y
Contest: Seattle at Green Bay
Contest Date: 1/12/2008 4:35 PM
Pick: Spread
Choice: +8.5 Seattle

play the seahawks + the 7.5 saturday early Were taking a hard look @ the Green Bay Packers/Seahawks battle as the home crew is listed as 7?-point favorites versus the Seahawks, while the game's total is sitting at 43. Last week Seattle scored 22 fourth-quarter points in their 35-14 wild-card win over Washington, covering the 3-point home spread. 49 points scored were OVER the posted total of 38.5. Matt Hasselbeck was 20-for-32 for 229 yards, one touchdown and two picks, while D.J. Hackett caught six passes for 101 yards and a score for the Seahawks. We feel the Seahawks will shut down Packers Rb Grant, & we feel they can win this game. The team came within a few bad plays of winning its last two playoff battles on the road &, Seattle is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games Seattle is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games & Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay

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Steve is on a 40-11 run all plays