Services for Sat 1-12
- Thread starter Vegas21
- Start date
CTO
MARQUETTE over Notre Dame (Day game)...Since home-lovin' ND (29 straight wins at Joyce Center!) playing on an opponents' home court for 1st time this season, doubt Irish have any better luck now than they had in the same scheduling setup year ago, when they were whipped by 18 at Georgetown. ND thrives at 3-point line (41% on 21 attempts pg), but Irish find no groove vs. tight-covering Marquette (permitting just 30% beyond arc), fired-up after allowing a reg.-season high in 85-72 series setback LY. Meanwhile, super-deep, uptempo Warriors (80 ppg) able to unleash devastating transition game vs. bigger but slower visitor.
*MARQUETTE 84 - Notre Dame 67 RATING - 11
WASHINGTON STATE over *Ucla (Day Game)...Can't knock Ben Howland's no-nonsense UCLA outfit that will welcome chance to engage WSU in Cougs' patient, bump-and-grind style. At the same time, it's hard not to get interested in well-schooled, unbeaten Wazzu bunch that's at all-time best No. 4 in rankings, allowing nation's-low 49.7 ppg, and now forcing foes to pay attention on blocks to rugged 6-10 jr. Baynes (64% from floor) as well as versatile perimeter weapons Low, Weaver, & Rochestie. With possessions limited, as usual, in a Tony Bennett-coached game, this is a big pointspread hurdle for Bruins to overcome.
WASHINGTON STATE 53 - *Ucla 54 RATING - 10
*DRAKE over Missouri State...Drake's ascension to its best-in-school history 12-1 start is reminiscent in many ways of the rise of Washington State in the Pac-10. After father Dick Bennett revived the Cougar program, he retired and left the team in the hands of son Tony, who has lifted Wazzu to even greater heights. This season in Des Moines, son Keno Davis has taken over for father Dr. Tom, and the Bulldogs have taken off. It's been a plus that Keno's inherited a veteran core. Thanks to three DD scorers (soph G Josh Young, sr. G Leonard Houston, 6-8 jr. Jonathan Cox), 6-1 sr. playmaker Adam Emmenecker, and a deep bench (21 points in recent road win at Evansville), Drake leads the league in steals, TO margin, triples per game, and scoring differential.
*DRAKE 80 - Missouri State 59 RATING - 11
MARQUETTE over Notre Dame (Day game)...Since home-lovin' ND (29 straight wins at Joyce Center!) playing on an opponents' home court for 1st time this season, doubt Irish have any better luck now than they had in the same scheduling setup year ago, when they were whipped by 18 at Georgetown. ND thrives at 3-point line (41% on 21 attempts pg), but Irish find no groove vs. tight-covering Marquette (permitting just 30% beyond arc), fired-up after allowing a reg.-season high in 85-72 series setback LY. Meanwhile, super-deep, uptempo Warriors (80 ppg) able to unleash devastating transition game vs. bigger but slower visitor.
*MARQUETTE 84 - Notre Dame 67 RATING - 11
WASHINGTON STATE over *Ucla (Day Game)...Can't knock Ben Howland's no-nonsense UCLA outfit that will welcome chance to engage WSU in Cougs' patient, bump-and-grind style. At the same time, it's hard not to get interested in well-schooled, unbeaten Wazzu bunch that's at all-time best No. 4 in rankings, allowing nation's-low 49.7 ppg, and now forcing foes to pay attention on blocks to rugged 6-10 jr. Baynes (64% from floor) as well as versatile perimeter weapons Low, Weaver, & Rochestie. With possessions limited, as usual, in a Tony Bennett-coached game, this is a big pointspread hurdle for Bruins to overcome.
WASHINGTON STATE 53 - *Ucla 54 RATING - 10
*DRAKE over Missouri State...Drake's ascension to its best-in-school history 12-1 start is reminiscent in many ways of the rise of Washington State in the Pac-10. After father Dick Bennett revived the Cougar program, he retired and left the team in the hands of son Tony, who has lifted Wazzu to even greater heights. This season in Des Moines, son Keno Davis has taken over for father Dr. Tom, and the Bulldogs have taken off. It's been a plus that Keno's inherited a veteran core. Thanks to three DD scorers (soph G Josh Young, sr. G Leonard Houston, 6-8 jr. Jonathan Cox), 6-1 sr. playmaker Adam Emmenecker, and a deep bench (21 points in recent road win at Evansville), Drake leads the league in steals, TO margin, triples per game, and scoring differential.
*DRAKE 80 - Missouri State 59 RATING - 11
**** MY PLAYS FOR TODAY ****
----CBB---------------
(9*) MIAMI
(9*) MARQUETTE
(8*) DRAKE
(7*) N. TEXAS
---NFL---------------
(10*) PACKERS
(8*) PATRIOTS / JAGUARS: OVER
---NHL---------------
(7*) DEVILS
---NBA---------------
(6*) PISTONS
1-10* (48-40-2)
----CBB---------------
(9*) MIAMI
(9*) MARQUETTE
(8*) DRAKE
(7*) N. TEXAS
---NFL---------------
(10*) PACKERS
(8*) PATRIOTS / JAGUARS: OVER
---NHL---------------
(7*) DEVILS
---NBA---------------
(6*) PISTONS
1-10* (48-40-2)
anyone have this play for John Ryan for Sat.?
anyone have this play for John Ryan for Sat.?
NFL
Ryan's 15* NFL MONSTER AFC Game of the Year
Thanks.
anyone have this play for John Ryan for Sat.?
NFL
Ryan's 15* NFL MONSTER AFC Game of the Year
Thanks.
MP8621
I'll put this as simple as I can. I don't know zilch about Stevie Y but, Giants007 is as legit as it gets. If he paid for this play and that's what it says, he's giving you a quality play in his eyes. Use it if you want or don't use it, the choice is yours.
With 7 posts under your belt and almost 2,000 for Giants007 well, enough said. Not trying to dump on you just trying to let you know that Giants007 is very well respected in this forum and has helped a lot of us cash in. Good Luck to you.
I'll put this as simple as I can. I don't know zilch about Stevie Y but, Giants007 is as legit as it gets. If he paid for this play and that's what it says, he's giving you a quality play in his eyes. Use it if you want or don't use it, the choice is yours.
With 7 posts under your belt and almost 2,000 for Giants007 well, enough said. Not trying to dump on you just trying to let you know that Giants007 is very well respected in this forum and has helped a lot of us cash in. Good Luck to you.
Arthur Ralph
Arthur Ralph
he has been terrible.
I have had his plays for about amonth now. Sad thing is,including his 10 staight wins, he is at 54.67%. Anyone want to challenge that? I have EVERY play. Tonight was Cleveland, NOONE got it at better than 7.5. NOONE. NOONE will sit here and sing his praises.
Hope he wins tomorrow, he has been DREADFUL!!
SP: Drake
Regular Plays: Green Bay, Pats, Bowling Green and Baylor
He is a good capper, but I am not going to sit here and lie and say he is the best thing ever. Since his 10-0 run, he has been average. That being ssaid, he is due to hit a SP, since he has lost a ton this week.
Arthur Ralph
he has been terrible.
I have had his plays for about amonth now. Sad thing is,including his 10 staight wins, he is at 54.67%. Anyone want to challenge that? I have EVERY play. Tonight was Cleveland, NOONE got it at better than 7.5. NOONE. NOONE will sit here and sing his praises.
Hope he wins tomorrow, he has been DREADFUL!!
SP: Drake
Regular Plays: Green Bay, Pats, Bowling Green and Baylor
He is a good capper, but I am not going to sit here and lie and say he is the best thing ever. Since his 10-0 run, he has been average. That being ssaid, he is due to hit a SP, since he has lost a ton this week.
I feel you on that Eddie. I have been riding out the Superpick train and it has been iffy at best. Here is Ferringo's first conference game of the year. Let's hope we can score with it.
FERRINGO
7-Unit Play. Take #542 Miami (-6) over Georgia Tech (2 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 12)
Note: This is our ACC Game of the Year. Play for 6-Units at -6.5 or -7.0. After that it's at your own discretion, but I'm looking for a double-digit victory. That being said, it's still about line value.
I love this situation and I?m loving the Hurricanes here. Miami is a very, very talented and deep team, a true sleeper in the ACC. They are 13-1 on the season and have a Top 25 resume but aren?t getting the love they deserve. Miami is 30th in points allowed defense and 13th in field goal defense and should lock down on a Tech team that has absolutely no inside presence. Miami has won its past two meetings with the Yellowjackets ? including a win last year when Tech may have had more talent. Well, Miami is the better team here and should open conference play with a convincing home win. The Hurricanes beat VCU by six. They beat Providence by six. They beat Mississippi State by six. All three of those teams are better than the Jackets. Georgia Tech is coming off a disappointing road loss against rival Georgia on Thursday and has been one of the worst road teams in the nation over the past three years. Tech is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games played away from home. Miami is 5-1 ATS at home, 5-0 ATS as a favorite, 5-2-1 ATS in ACC play, and 13-3-1 ATS overall. I?m looking for an 8- to 12-point victory here and a solid 7-Unit score. Go Hurricanes!
I will post the rest of his plays as soon as he posts them...GOOD LUCK!!!!
FERRINGO
7-Unit Play. Take #542 Miami (-6) over Georgia Tech (2 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 12)
Note: This is our ACC Game of the Year. Play for 6-Units at -6.5 or -7.0. After that it's at your own discretion, but I'm looking for a double-digit victory. That being said, it's still about line value.
I love this situation and I?m loving the Hurricanes here. Miami is a very, very talented and deep team, a true sleeper in the ACC. They are 13-1 on the season and have a Top 25 resume but aren?t getting the love they deserve. Miami is 30th in points allowed defense and 13th in field goal defense and should lock down on a Tech team that has absolutely no inside presence. Miami has won its past two meetings with the Yellowjackets ? including a win last year when Tech may have had more talent. Well, Miami is the better team here and should open conference play with a convincing home win. The Hurricanes beat VCU by six. They beat Providence by six. They beat Mississippi State by six. All three of those teams are better than the Jackets. Georgia Tech is coming off a disappointing road loss against rival Georgia on Thursday and has been one of the worst road teams in the nation over the past three years. Tech is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games played away from home. Miami is 5-1 ATS at home, 5-0 ATS as a favorite, 5-2-1 ATS in ACC play, and 13-3-1 ATS overall. I?m looking for an 8- to 12-point victory here and a solid 7-Unit score. Go Hurricanes!
I will post the rest of his plays as soon as he posts them...GOOD LUCK!!!!
Larry Ness
Green Bay triple dime
Stan Sharp
New England Patriots triple dime
J Whip
Green Bay Packers triple dime
Green Bay triple dime
Stan Sharp
New England Patriots triple dime
J Whip
Green Bay Packers triple dime
DCI NFL
Saturday, January 12, 2008
NFC Divisional Round
GREEN BAY 27, Seattle 20
AFC Divisional Round
NEW ENGLAND 35, Jacksonville 23
Saturday, January 12, 2008
NFC Divisional Round
GREEN BAY 27, Seattle 20
AFC Divisional Round
NEW ENGLAND 35, Jacksonville 23
Last edited:
Ben Burns
Divisional Rd. TOTAL OF THE YEAR *45-17 L62! ****
Despite a 1-3 showing in the Wildcard Rd, Ben Burns remains a solid 19-12 his L31 NFL selections. More impressively, he's an AWESOME 12-4 (75%) his L16 NFL playoff picks and an INCREDIBLE 45-17 (73%) the past five years. That includes a 20 POINT WINNER with his 2007 Divisional Rd T.OY. Like that BLOWOUT? Get the 2008 version!
Div. Rd TOY
Under Packers/Seahawks
Total ANNIHILATOR ***45-17 L62 Playoffs! *****
Its true. Ben Burns went just 1-3 in the Wildcard Rd. However, industry insiders will be quick to point out that its also true that he remains an AWESOME 12-4 (75%) his L16 NFL playoff picks and an AMAZING 45-17 (73%) his L62. BANK on the #1 NFL HANDICAPPER IN HISTORY (field of 150) of the *** *** Monitor bouncing back BIGTIME!
Annihilator
Under Patriots/Jaguars
Divisional Rd. TOTAL OF THE YEAR *45-17 L62! ****
Despite a 1-3 showing in the Wildcard Rd, Ben Burns remains a solid 19-12 his L31 NFL selections. More impressively, he's an AWESOME 12-4 (75%) his L16 NFL playoff picks and an INCREDIBLE 45-17 (73%) the past five years. That includes a 20 POINT WINNER with his 2007 Divisional Rd T.OY. Like that BLOWOUT? Get the 2008 version!
Div. Rd TOY
Under Packers/Seahawks
Total ANNIHILATOR ***45-17 L62 Playoffs! *****
Its true. Ben Burns went just 1-3 in the Wildcard Rd. However, industry insiders will be quick to point out that its also true that he remains an AWESOME 12-4 (75%) his L16 NFL playoff picks and an AMAZING 45-17 (73%) his L62. BANK on the #1 NFL HANDICAPPER IN HISTORY (field of 150) of the *** *** Monitor bouncing back BIGTIME!
Annihilator
Under Patriots/Jaguars
Carlo Campanella
10* NFC PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR
Green Bay
comp
7* Play On UNDER Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
10* NFC PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR
Green Bay
comp
7* Play On UNDER Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Point Train
10-UNIT NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR
10 units Seattle Seahawks (+9) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
Seattle (+) over GREEN BAY at 4:30 pm EST The Packers went 13-3 during the regular season to claim the NFC?s second-best record. The Seahawks went 10-6 to win the NFC West, arguably the NFL?s worst division. Regular-season records go out the window once the playoffs arrive, though, with experience taking over. Green Bay is one of the NFL?s youngest teams and, outside of Brett Favre, has very little postseason experience. Seattle, conversely, is one of the more playoff-tested teams remaining with a majority of its 2005 Super Bowl team intact. Aside from an uncharacteristically bad showing at Carolina and a backup-filled loss to Atlanta, Seattle played extremely well down the stretch. The Seahawks went 6-2 (6-2 ATS) in the second half of the season, winning by 13.7 ppg. A big part of the success has been a jolt from Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game, which is 8th in the NFL. Hasselbeck has completed 63.7% of his passes for 253.1 ypg with 16 touchdowns over his last eight complete games. Also, he?ll have motivation to have a great game as needs to redeem himself following his, ?We want the ball and we?re going to score,? snafu in the 2004 playoffs. Green Bay has gone an impressive 7-1 at home this year but it hasn?t looked all that great against better competition. The Packers played only three teams with .500 or better records at home this year and none of those wins came by more than a touchdown. Also, they lost at home by a touchdown over a bad Chicago team. In the end, this game will come down to playoff experience and Seattle wins that debate hands down. The Seahawks were given little chance to win in Chicago last year in the second round but they took the game to overtime before losing. Two years before that they were playing in the Super Bowl. This team has more postseason experience, whether it?s the players of the coaches. That experience will make all the difference. Ride with the Seahawks.
10-UNIT NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR
10 units Seattle Seahawks (+9) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
Seattle (+) over GREEN BAY at 4:30 pm EST The Packers went 13-3 during the regular season to claim the NFC?s second-best record. The Seahawks went 10-6 to win the NFC West, arguably the NFL?s worst division. Regular-season records go out the window once the playoffs arrive, though, with experience taking over. Green Bay is one of the NFL?s youngest teams and, outside of Brett Favre, has very little postseason experience. Seattle, conversely, is one of the more playoff-tested teams remaining with a majority of its 2005 Super Bowl team intact. Aside from an uncharacteristically bad showing at Carolina and a backup-filled loss to Atlanta, Seattle played extremely well down the stretch. The Seahawks went 6-2 (6-2 ATS) in the second half of the season, winning by 13.7 ppg. A big part of the success has been a jolt from Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game, which is 8th in the NFL. Hasselbeck has completed 63.7% of his passes for 253.1 ypg with 16 touchdowns over his last eight complete games. Also, he?ll have motivation to have a great game as needs to redeem himself following his, ?We want the ball and we?re going to score,? snafu in the 2004 playoffs. Green Bay has gone an impressive 7-1 at home this year but it hasn?t looked all that great against better competition. The Packers played only three teams with .500 or better records at home this year and none of those wins came by more than a touchdown. Also, they lost at home by a touchdown over a bad Chicago team. In the end, this game will come down to playoff experience and Seattle wins that debate hands down. The Seahawks were given little chance to win in Chicago last year in the second round but they took the game to overtime before losing. Two years before that they were playing in the Super Bowl. This team has more postseason experience, whether it?s the players of the coaches. That experience will make all the difference. Ride with the Seahawks.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PLAYOFFS
Seattle (11-6, 10-7 ATS at Green Bay (13-3, 12-3-1 ATS)
The third-seeded Seahawks face a familiar opponent when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on the second-seeded Packers to open the divisional playoff round.
Seattle stifled a Washington comeback last week by putting up 21 fourth-quarter points in a 35-14 home victory as a three-point chalk in the wild-card round. QB Matt Hasselbeck struggled a bit in going 20 of 32 for 229 yards with one TD and two INTs, but CB Marcus Trufant returned an INT for a fourth-quarter score that helped seal the game. The Seahawks, who bounced back from a 1-2 SU and ATS hiccup to end the regular season, finished with just 304 total yards, nearly 45 off their season average (348.9), and they lost the time-of-possession battle, 34:15-25:45.
While Seattle faced the Redskins, Green Bay was enjoying a bye week. The Packers finished the regular season with a 34-13 rout of Detroit as a 3?-point home favorite on Dec. 30, moving to 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four starts. Green Bay finished with the NFL?s best pointspread record.
These two teams have squared off six times since 2003 ? twice in the preseason, three times in the regular season and once in the playoffs. In the four contests that mattered, Green Bay went 3-1 (1-1-2 ATS), with Seattle winning the most recent battle last year 34-24, pushing as a 10-point home chalk. The Seahawks and Packers also met in the wild-card round after the 2003 season, with Green Bay claiming a 33-27 overtime victory at Lambeau as a 7?-point favorite. Hasselbeck threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown in the extra session.
Adding to these two teams? levels of familiarity, Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren led Green Bay to consecutive Super Bowls in the 1990s before exiting for Seattle, and Hasselbeck was formerly Favre?s backup.
The Seahawks come into this game on a 7-2 SU and ATS surge. They?re also 7-2 ATS in their last nine against the NFC, 5-2 ATS in their last seven as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five January games (bolstered by their Super Bowl run in 2005). On the downside, Seattle went just 3-5 SU and ATS on the highway this season, and going back to 2005, this squad is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 road starts.
The Packers finished 7-1 at Lambeau this season (6-1-1 ATS). Additionally, they enjoyed season-long ATS runs of 7-2-1 as a favorite and 8-1-1 in non-division play. Green Bay is also 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 starts overall and 13-4-2 ATS in its last 19 against the NFC. On the negative side, the Packers are 3-7-4 ATS in their last 14 versus teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five as a playoff favorite, including the non-cover against Seattle in January 2004.
In the regular season, Seattle was in the league?s top 10 offensively in points (24.6, 10th), total yards (348.9, 9th) and passing yards (247.8, 8th). The Seahawks allowed just 18.2 points per game (tied for 6th), although they were a middling 15th in total yards allowed (321.8). They posted a solid plus-10 turnover differential, though they were even last week with two giveaways and two takeaways.
Green Bay?s offense ranked in the top five in total yards (370.7, 2nd), passing yards (270.9, 2nd) and scoring (27.2 points per game, 4th). Favre completed a career-best 66.5 percent of his passes for 4,155 passing yards, with 28 TDs against 15 INTs. RB Ryan Grant rushed for 956 yards (5.1 per carry) and eight TDs, and WR Donald Driver had 1,048 yards receiving (12.8 per catch).
Defensively, the Packers allowed 313.3 ypg (11th) and just 18.2 points (tied for 6th with Seattle), and they finished with a plus-4 turnover differential.
For Green Bay, the over is on runs of 7-0 overall, 10-1 following a spread-cover, 6-0 as a favorite and 6-0 against the NFC. For Seattle, the over is 6-2 as a road pup, 4-1 against the NFC and 19-8 as an underdog. The over is also 3-1 in the last four non-preseason meetings in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Jacksonville (12-5, 11-6 ATS) at New England (16-0, 10-6 ATS)
The Jaguars, one of the league?s best bets the second half of the season, look to pull off a historic upset when they visit Gillette Stadium for a playoff battle with the unbeaten Patriots.
Jacksonville edged Pittsburgh 31-29 last week in the wild-card round, failing to cash as a 2?-point favorite. QB David Garrard had his worst outing of the year, going 9 of 21 for 140 yards with one TD and two INTs ? one less pick than he threw the entire regular season. But he keyed the winning drive with a 32-yard scramble on fourth-and-2 late in the fourth quarter, with Josh Scobee drilling a 25-yard FG in the final minute.
The Jags were outgained by more than 100 yards in Pittsburgh (340-239) and lost the time-of-possession battle by six minutes, but they forced QB Ben Roethlisberger into three INTs, plus a fumble after Scobee?s field goal. Jacksonville also registered six sacks and allowed just 43 rushing yards.
The Jaguars enter this contest on a 7-2 SU and ATS roll, including a meaningless Week 17 blowout loss at Houston when none of Jacksonville?s key starters played.
Top-seeded New England was off last week after capping its perfect regular season with a tightly contested 38-35 road win over the New York Giants on Dec. 29. The Patriots never threatened to cover as a 13-point chalk, dropping to 2-6 ATS in their last eight, including three straight non-covers to close the regular season.
QB Tom Brady went 32 of 42 for 356 yards with two TDs and no INTs against New York, ending the year with a ridiculous 50-8 TD-to-INT ratio, with the 50 TDs besting Peyton Manning?s previous single-season NFL record of 49. WRs Wes Welker (11 catches, 122 yards) and Randy Moss (6 catches, 100 yards) had big nights, with Moss reaching 23 TDs to break Jerry Rice?s all-time single-season mark.
New England has won the past two meetings (2-0 ATS) against Jacksonville: a 28-3 wild-card playoff rout at home as a 7?-point favorite after the 2005 regular season; and a 24-21 road victory as a three-point underdog during the 2006 regular season.
With last week?s win in Pittsburgh, the Jags improved to 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS on the highway this season, outgaining and outscoring opponents by slim margins of 339-327 and 25-24, respectively. They hold additional positive ATS trends of 5-1 against teams with a winning record, 9-3 against the AFC, 5-2 as a road pup and 15-6-1 as an underdog. But Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last five playoff starts and 0-5 ATS in road playoff contests.
The Patriots? positive ATS trends are seemingly endless: 7-3 at home overall, 8-2-1 in home playoff games, 13-5-2 in January, 13-5 against the AFC and 41-19-3 against teams with a winning record. On the negative side, New England is 1-5 ATS in its last six, all as a double-digit chalk.
In the regular season, Jacksonville was among the top 10 in the league in total yards (357.4, 7th), points (25.7, 6th) and rushing yards (149.4, 2nd). Defensively, the Jaguars were 10th in the league in points allowed at 19.0. They finished the regular season with a plus-9 turnover differential.
New England set a single-season scoring record this year, averaging 36.8 per game. The Patriots also led the NFL in total offense (411.2 ypg) and passing offense (295.7 ypg). Brady finished with 4,806 yards passing (68.9 completion percentage), Moss had 1,493 receiving yards (15.2 per catch), Welker had 1,175 receiving yards (10.5 ypc), and RB Laurence Maroney had 835 rushing yards (4.5 per carry).
Defensively, the Pats ranked fourth in both points allowed (17.1) and total yards allowed (288.3). They also had the league?s third-best turnover ratio at plus-16.
The over is 12-4-1 on the season for the Jags, including 7-0 in the last seven and 10-0-1 in the last 11. The Jaguars are also on over runs of 8-0 as an underdog and 10-1 on the road.
The over is 16-6 in New England?s last 22 overall, including 8-3 in the last 11 at home. But the under is 12-5 in the Patriots? last 17 playoff games, including 9-2 at home. The under is also 7-0 in their last seven divisional playoff games and 8-3 as a postseason favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
NFL PLAYOFFS
Seattle (11-6, 10-7 ATS at Green Bay (13-3, 12-3-1 ATS)
The third-seeded Seahawks face a familiar opponent when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on the second-seeded Packers to open the divisional playoff round.
Seattle stifled a Washington comeback last week by putting up 21 fourth-quarter points in a 35-14 home victory as a three-point chalk in the wild-card round. QB Matt Hasselbeck struggled a bit in going 20 of 32 for 229 yards with one TD and two INTs, but CB Marcus Trufant returned an INT for a fourth-quarter score that helped seal the game. The Seahawks, who bounced back from a 1-2 SU and ATS hiccup to end the regular season, finished with just 304 total yards, nearly 45 off their season average (348.9), and they lost the time-of-possession battle, 34:15-25:45.
While Seattle faced the Redskins, Green Bay was enjoying a bye week. The Packers finished the regular season with a 34-13 rout of Detroit as a 3?-point home favorite on Dec. 30, moving to 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four starts. Green Bay finished with the NFL?s best pointspread record.
These two teams have squared off six times since 2003 ? twice in the preseason, three times in the regular season and once in the playoffs. In the four contests that mattered, Green Bay went 3-1 (1-1-2 ATS), with Seattle winning the most recent battle last year 34-24, pushing as a 10-point home chalk. The Seahawks and Packers also met in the wild-card round after the 2003 season, with Green Bay claiming a 33-27 overtime victory at Lambeau as a 7?-point favorite. Hasselbeck threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown in the extra session.
Adding to these two teams? levels of familiarity, Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren led Green Bay to consecutive Super Bowls in the 1990s before exiting for Seattle, and Hasselbeck was formerly Favre?s backup.
The Seahawks come into this game on a 7-2 SU and ATS surge. They?re also 7-2 ATS in their last nine against the NFC, 5-2 ATS in their last seven as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five January games (bolstered by their Super Bowl run in 2005). On the downside, Seattle went just 3-5 SU and ATS on the highway this season, and going back to 2005, this squad is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 road starts.
The Packers finished 7-1 at Lambeau this season (6-1-1 ATS). Additionally, they enjoyed season-long ATS runs of 7-2-1 as a favorite and 8-1-1 in non-division play. Green Bay is also 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 starts overall and 13-4-2 ATS in its last 19 against the NFC. On the negative side, the Packers are 3-7-4 ATS in their last 14 versus teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five as a playoff favorite, including the non-cover against Seattle in January 2004.
In the regular season, Seattle was in the league?s top 10 offensively in points (24.6, 10th), total yards (348.9, 9th) and passing yards (247.8, 8th). The Seahawks allowed just 18.2 points per game (tied for 6th), although they were a middling 15th in total yards allowed (321.8). They posted a solid plus-10 turnover differential, though they were even last week with two giveaways and two takeaways.
Green Bay?s offense ranked in the top five in total yards (370.7, 2nd), passing yards (270.9, 2nd) and scoring (27.2 points per game, 4th). Favre completed a career-best 66.5 percent of his passes for 4,155 passing yards, with 28 TDs against 15 INTs. RB Ryan Grant rushed for 956 yards (5.1 per carry) and eight TDs, and WR Donald Driver had 1,048 yards receiving (12.8 per catch).
Defensively, the Packers allowed 313.3 ypg (11th) and just 18.2 points (tied for 6th with Seattle), and they finished with a plus-4 turnover differential.
For Green Bay, the over is on runs of 7-0 overall, 10-1 following a spread-cover, 6-0 as a favorite and 6-0 against the NFC. For Seattle, the over is 6-2 as a road pup, 4-1 against the NFC and 19-8 as an underdog. The over is also 3-1 in the last four non-preseason meetings in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Jacksonville (12-5, 11-6 ATS) at New England (16-0, 10-6 ATS)
The Jaguars, one of the league?s best bets the second half of the season, look to pull off a historic upset when they visit Gillette Stadium for a playoff battle with the unbeaten Patriots.
Jacksonville edged Pittsburgh 31-29 last week in the wild-card round, failing to cash as a 2?-point favorite. QB David Garrard had his worst outing of the year, going 9 of 21 for 140 yards with one TD and two INTs ? one less pick than he threw the entire regular season. But he keyed the winning drive with a 32-yard scramble on fourth-and-2 late in the fourth quarter, with Josh Scobee drilling a 25-yard FG in the final minute.
The Jags were outgained by more than 100 yards in Pittsburgh (340-239) and lost the time-of-possession battle by six minutes, but they forced QB Ben Roethlisberger into three INTs, plus a fumble after Scobee?s field goal. Jacksonville also registered six sacks and allowed just 43 rushing yards.
The Jaguars enter this contest on a 7-2 SU and ATS roll, including a meaningless Week 17 blowout loss at Houston when none of Jacksonville?s key starters played.
Top-seeded New England was off last week after capping its perfect regular season with a tightly contested 38-35 road win over the New York Giants on Dec. 29. The Patriots never threatened to cover as a 13-point chalk, dropping to 2-6 ATS in their last eight, including three straight non-covers to close the regular season.
QB Tom Brady went 32 of 42 for 356 yards with two TDs and no INTs against New York, ending the year with a ridiculous 50-8 TD-to-INT ratio, with the 50 TDs besting Peyton Manning?s previous single-season NFL record of 49. WRs Wes Welker (11 catches, 122 yards) and Randy Moss (6 catches, 100 yards) had big nights, with Moss reaching 23 TDs to break Jerry Rice?s all-time single-season mark.
New England has won the past two meetings (2-0 ATS) against Jacksonville: a 28-3 wild-card playoff rout at home as a 7?-point favorite after the 2005 regular season; and a 24-21 road victory as a three-point underdog during the 2006 regular season.
With last week?s win in Pittsburgh, the Jags improved to 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS on the highway this season, outgaining and outscoring opponents by slim margins of 339-327 and 25-24, respectively. They hold additional positive ATS trends of 5-1 against teams with a winning record, 9-3 against the AFC, 5-2 as a road pup and 15-6-1 as an underdog. But Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last five playoff starts and 0-5 ATS in road playoff contests.
The Patriots? positive ATS trends are seemingly endless: 7-3 at home overall, 8-2-1 in home playoff games, 13-5-2 in January, 13-5 against the AFC and 41-19-3 against teams with a winning record. On the negative side, New England is 1-5 ATS in its last six, all as a double-digit chalk.
In the regular season, Jacksonville was among the top 10 in the league in total yards (357.4, 7th), points (25.7, 6th) and rushing yards (149.4, 2nd). Defensively, the Jaguars were 10th in the league in points allowed at 19.0. They finished the regular season with a plus-9 turnover differential.
New England set a single-season scoring record this year, averaging 36.8 per game. The Patriots also led the NFL in total offense (411.2 ypg) and passing offense (295.7 ypg). Brady finished with 4,806 yards passing (68.9 completion percentage), Moss had 1,493 receiving yards (15.2 per catch), Welker had 1,175 receiving yards (10.5 ypc), and RB Laurence Maroney had 835 rushing yards (4.5 per carry).
Defensively, the Pats ranked fourth in both points allowed (17.1) and total yards allowed (288.3). They also had the league?s third-best turnover ratio at plus-16.
The over is 12-4-1 on the season for the Jags, including 7-0 in the last seven and 10-0-1 in the last 11. The Jaguars are also on over runs of 8-0 as an underdog and 10-1 on the road.
The over is 16-6 in New England?s last 22 overall, including 8-3 in the last 11 at home. But the under is 12-5 in the Patriots? last 17 playoff games, including 9-2 at home. The under is also 7-0 in their last seven divisional playoff games and 8-3 as a postseason favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
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The Sports MEMO
Seattle at Green Bay -8 O/U 40
Recommendation: Green Bay
Jacksonville at New England -13 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Over
Seattle at Green Bay -8 O/U 40
Recommendation: Green Bay
Jacksonville at New England -13 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Over