Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 400,000♦ Celtics
2. 50,000♦ Cardinals
1. Celtics- I know damn well the home teams have been almost unbeatable in the Conference Semifinals, but that doesn't mean we should blindly pick whatever team happens to be playing in front of their home fans. In fact, I firmly believe we finally see the Celtics get the road monkey off their back tonight in Game 6, as they come together to get the job done in Cleveland.
So why buck the home team trend? Several reasons, but let's start with the injury to Daniel Gibson. Of course, to the casual bettor this may seem like just another role player going down with an injury, but smart bettors know better. Gibson is by far the Cavaliers best perimeter threat, shooting 45% from beyond the arc in the playoffs. Not only that, but in 25 minutes per game this postseason, he averages 9 ppg and is third behind Lebron and West in assists with 27. His absence means a tremendous downgrade when the Cavs go to their bench, especially along the perimeter.
Speaking of backcourts, the emergence Rajon Rondo is Game 5 is a huge boost for the Celtics. He's maybe green, but 20 points, 13 assists, 1 turnover and 2 steals in 42 minutes Wednesday can do a lot for a young players confidence. He was able to provide that 3rd scorer with Ray Allen struggling, and that makes all difference in the world. As a side note, Allen is too good a player to struggle thru this entire series, and I fully expect he'll bounce back after an ugly Game 5 (4 of 11 shooting, 11 points, 3 turnovers).
While everyone was paying attention to Lebron's 35-point effort Wednesday, I was just as impressed with Kevin Garnett's 26-point, 16-rebound, 3 swat effort. Many in the media were saying he coulnd't beat Varejao's defense... What? For as energetic as Varejao is coming off the bench, Garnett showed he can score whenever he wants in Game 5, the problem in prior games was he tended to defer to his teammates, but not anymore. As long as KG stays agressive the Celtics have a huge edge in the frontcourt.
Finally, this may seem like a simplistic argument, but the Celtics are the better team. Yes, they've had their troubles on the road, but with Detroit waiting in the wings (resting and gameplanning), Boston knows it cannot afford to screw around tonight. Cavs have been great at home, but let's just see how their role players respond to this "win or go home" situation. I'm banking that at least a couple of their young guys struggle under the pressure. Couple that with the loss of their best perimeter threat in Gibson (who stretches the defense, and gives the Cavs second unit their scoring punch), and the Celtics defense can take care of the rest.
Take the Celtics plus the points over the Cavaliers as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Cardinals- After struggling in their last road trip, and dropping 2 of 3 against the Pirates in their last series at Busch (no thanks to Isringhausen), I'm looking for the Redbirds to regroup behind Braden Looper in this one, beating the Rays in the only place they seem vulnerable - on the road.
While its true the D-Rays have been red-hot, let's not forget a majority of their wins during this streak have come at home, where they're 16-8 on the season. The highways however has been less kind, going 8-9 overall, and now they face one of the NL's best home teams in St. Louis. Time for the D-Rays to come back down top Earth after an impressive run in Tampa.
Take away one poor start against the Giants, and the Cards Braden Looper has been outstanding at home, allowing 4 runs in 24 innings at Busch. Looper hasn't been great in Interleague play, but after a sub-par effort in Milwaukee in his last one, look for a more focused effort from the Cards righty in this one. He's been money at home, and he'll deliver the cash at Busch once again Friday night.
Despite winning 4 of his last 5 starts, the Rays Andy Sonnastine hasn't exactly been consistent, allowing 9 runs on 18 hits over his last 11 innings. He got rocked by the Angels in his last one, allowing 5 runs over 5 innings, eventhough the Rays pulled out the 8-5 win. If he thought the Angels batting order was nasty, wait until he gets a load of the red-hot Pujols and company tonight. Note, the Redbirds are 10-5 at home against righties this season, batting .290 against them in that spot!
Bottom line, Cards break out of their slump behind one of the better arms at home in Braden Looper. Not only is Looper excellent at home, but so are the Cardinals, especially against righties like Sonnastine. Tampa Bay has been surging, but a change of venue against one of the NL's best home teams throws a wet blanket on their red-hot ways. Cards roll in this one!
Take the Cardinals behind Looper over the Devil Rays and Sonnastine in this MLB match up.
YOUR WELCOME
