Your in a great and interesting position here Kid. Of course the wonderful soccer draw screws up the perfect hedge scenario, so I think you are on the right track. But, I am not sure the extra time and shootout bets out way the benefits of the draw since you have to make both bets to ensure victory versus the one draw bet. Also, at even money on Toronto it is tougher to increase the payout with more money on them since it is a 1-1 on every dollar bet on something else.
Math is a funny thing. You have two ways to hedge (actually 3 with the goal line but I do not think that it is effective in this scenario at +.5 -120): the extra time and shootout options and the draw. Both can hedge but both lessen your winnings if Toronto wins in regulation. An effective draw hedge limits your downside win to approximately 7 units (assuming you bet 4 units on the draw and Toronto wins in regulation). But this is also about the same if you bet 4 units on extra time and penalties and Toronto wins in regulation (you win 12 but lose 5). The payout gets better if you get to extra time or a shootout, but you have to get to that point first and the odds are against it (which is why you get a better payout).
Not sure if all that makes sense. Bottom line is that your solution ups the payout if you do get a draw. I don't think adding to Toronto in regulation give you any benefit at Even money. If it were me, I would simple play some on the draw and pray for Seattle to win (I realize my thinking is typically different than most). I love the risk/reward and with only a unit bet to win 50, you can't lose. But, if your goal is to maximize your hedge I think you are on the right track.
Math is a funny thing. You have two ways to hedge (actually 3 with the goal line but I do not think that it is effective in this scenario at +.5 -120): the extra time and shootout options and the draw. Both can hedge but both lessen your winnings if Toronto wins in regulation. An effective draw hedge limits your downside win to approximately 7 units (assuming you bet 4 units on the draw and Toronto wins in regulation). But this is also about the same if you bet 4 units on extra time and penalties and Toronto wins in regulation (you win 12 but lose 5). The payout gets better if you get to extra time or a shootout, but you have to get to that point first and the odds are against it (which is why you get a better payout).
Not sure if all that makes sense. Bottom line is that your solution ups the payout if you do get a draw. I don't think adding to Toronto in regulation give you any benefit at Even money. If it were me, I would simple play some on the draw and pray for Seattle to win (I realize my thinking is typically different than most). I love the risk/reward and with only a unit bet to win 50, you can't lose. But, if your goal is to maximize your hedge I think you are on the right track.
