Something I've watched

[dawgball]

Before I try to handicap a game or look at the spread, I try and figure out who the public is going to jump on. I know this is not something new to anyone, but I will try and keep up with these games as to where I think the public money will be.

I did not post this past weeks because I wanted to see how everything went. Here are the games that I was looking at:

Carolina with their impressive first week victory over the supposed mighty Vikings. Weinke is going to turn this team around. My thought: take the Falcons who lost in OT, but played a respectable game against SF.--This game theory was strengthened when the Falcons came out as a 3' fav. I felt the public would jump all over the Panthers thinking that this was a ridiculous line. Selection: Falcons -3'. Result: Winner

Going with the previous game, I thought the public would also be all over Minnesota expecting a bounce-back game for the high powered offense. The Bears also showed no offense against the Ravens the week before. When the Vikings came out as a mere field goal fav., I also thought the public would jump on this heavier. Note: Going against my theory which I decided the Bears should be a play, I was one that got sucked into the bouce-back game and took Minnesota. Selection should have been: Bears--Result: Winner

Next up is Indianapolis. Their offense looked incredible against the Jets defense in week one, and I think the public is always looking for a spot to bet on Manning. Selection: Buffalo +10--Result: Loser

Mentioned before, Baltimore did not look so great against the Bears until the end, so I looked for the public to be on the Ravens to get back to Super Bowl form. Only helped by them facing my lowly Bengals and giving one mesely TD. Selection: Bengals--Result:Winner

I don't know if it is because I live in the South, but is Tennessee becoming America's favorite team. I know I am sick of hearing about them. Anyway, the first week loss to Miami tells the public that the Titans will come back and embarrass the Jaguars. McNair going out hurt my theory a little, but I think anytime the public sees the Titans catching points to a non-powerhouse, the eyes light up. Selection:Jacksonville-_Result:Winner

The last public opinion theory was a go-against. The pitiful Redskins going into Lambeau on Monday night after the Pack looked incredible against the Lions in the first week. All the money had to be on Green Bay last night. Selection: Redskins--Result:Loser

Looking at the games this way and going against what I feel the way the public will view it resulted in a 4-2 week. This week's theory plays will follow shortly. I would like comments on this. Hell, your comment could be that this is jiberish, but that may help me, too. We'll see.

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Sic 'em
dawgball

[This message has been edited by dawgball (edited 09-25-2001).]

 

[dawgball]

This week's early looks at public money brought out 6 games as well. They are:

Baltimore--The super bowl champs must save face by coming back after a loss to the Bengals and win this game. This may not turn into a play because they are playing what probably is the best team in the NFL with the Broncos. Early thought is the selection will be: Denver.

Indianapolis made the list again because they looked great again and now travel to Foxboro to face one of the three worst teams in the NFL. Early thought: new England.

Tampa Bay--going against my thoughts last week, the public is now going to say that the Vikes have completely lost their touch. Now facing the dominating defense of the Bucs, they do not stand a chance. Early thought: Minnesota.

Atlanta--have they finally got the pieces put back together from their Super Bowl run? Now facing the Cardinals and their lackluster offense. Early thought: Arizona.

Philadelphia--this is a complete go-against Dallas. They have showed nothing. The public will be betting against them until the season's end. I feel the bookmakers will be scared to take wagers on the Cowboys' games all year. Early thought (and this is a scary one): Dallas.

San Diego--who isn't in love with the Chargers? That's about all have to say on this one. Selection: Cincinnati.

I would like to hear opinions for or against this theory. These are not plays, yet depending on the lines and news to follow throughout the week.

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Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[4bubba]

good article. The only question I have is your feeling the public will be on BALT. The public will be betting DEN all year no matter who they are playing.

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indecision is the KEY to flexibility

 

[dawgball]

4Bubba--Yeah now that I look at the contrarian side to that, I think you are right. Is this the reason that the line is only 4 then? I will probably be taking this one off of the list fi I do not get stronger feelings for it.

Thanks

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Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[Tito]

Nice write up.

Indianapolis I would have tended to agree with you on this one until I heard that Bledsoe is out for sure this week and maybe the year. The Colts have done nothing but go up and down the field against the Jets and the Bills. The Colts gave the Jets 10 of thier 24 points on a fumble and an interception, and gave the Bills 7 of thier 26 points on an interception return. The Pats offense was nothing to write home about, now it will disappear. Don't look for the Pats defense to stop the Colts. Right now the Colts can onkly stop themselves.

[b}Baltimore[/b] Absolutly agree with you on this one. No will will argue the the Ravens have a great defense, but you have to be ablre to score points, and this offense doesn't look like they can score many. Denver looks like another team that can put up numbers and this one is in Denver. If Baltimore can't move the ball, their defense will be on the field more then it wants to be and the air is a bit thin in Denver. This could make for an interesting 4rth quarter.

Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Philly, No Opinion

San Diego I guess I am one of those that is in love with SD. Looks like Buffalo got rid of the wrong quaterback. It looks like Flutie is out to prove that. Tomlinson has rushed for 203 yards over the first 2 weeks. Agreed it was against Washington and Dallas, but he is a tough running back and 203 yards is 203 yards. With Flutie running the show this gives San Diego balance at the QB position. Something they haven't had in a while. I believe that SD is the real deal.

Just my opinion.

Good luck on whatever you decide.

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Tito

The quickest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket!

 

[dawgball]

Actually Tito your comments kind of add fuel to this fire. With Bledsoe hurt, everyone should be on Indianapolis (if there is a line even put out). we'll see.

Thanks for the feedback.

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Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

dawgball, an interesting read, and looking forward to your finalized plays....

always looking to find something new to give us an edge...me especialy since I had my worst week ever...in ANYTHING, in capping this NFL week....
(i tripped in at -26.00 units, because I followed the "public" perception...)

 

[djv]

Thank you for starting this subject. I for one pay attention to what you are trying to do. I have used the method and always will. I use it as part of the emotion process. If you can fine the team with the high emotion You can win vs just about any trend you can fine. However if a team has a trend because of the coach and it goes with the rest of what is being said here. You can get some very nice winners. It takes work as you are doing and the willingness to look at both sides to try and be fair in your mind what the darlings might be this week. Then look for the let down teams and the ones that should have high emotion. Not easy but it works.
Balt vs Denver. Maybe one to watch. But then again. Does Denver want to show they can beat the Ravens. Emotion here belongs to Denver. The go against the SB team first four weeks trend. Well that will put more on the Denver side. The thing to remember there is most SB teams are fav not dogs.
So now a little stink starts to get in the pitcure. So your thoughts no play. I believe that is correct. But if they give you enough points you will take a second look.

 

[buddy]

dawgball,

I agree with your slant to a degree...

I think you have to take into consideration where these losses and wins occurred.

Denver wins and covers by a decisive margin as a road FAV...Baltimore, a 10 pt. HOME FAV, gets embarrassed in their own house.

If Denver would have won and NOT COVERED, then I would agree with the contrarian angle and go with Baltimore this weekend (I would agree w/ it even more if Balt would have won and not covered). But that is not the case. Denver wins and covers on the road, Baltimore loses outright in their own house as a 10 pt. fav.......I'm all over Denver.

 

[dr. freeze]

My thoughts -- load up on Indy right now -- let public raise the line -- go for middle just before game time........

 

[yearofthesnake]

dj,

you are correct on the stink factor with Bal being an underdog then favorite, but I went against Bal last week and I still feel the law kicking in, and going against them is still the play Bal = 11-2 ATS (last 13 games)with the cincy non cover..expect more L's ATS

Bal for more then obvious reasons will a good against vs all for the time being...bad teams, good teams, favorite or underdog...Den is a very strong play in my book right now.

[This message has been edited by yearofthesnake (edited 09-26-2001).]

 

[dawgball]

I appreciate everyone's input here. I now think (with the information given here) that there are reasons on both sides of the Ravens-Broncos game that there will probably be a split in action in this game. Therefore, it has been eliminated from my selections this week.

For clarification: The only thing I am trying to figure out with this theory is what the public's perception is on Tuesday morning before they start looking at lines. I will use one of my loser's last week as an example. Inidanapolis looked flawless against the Jets in week one. Manning exemplified the quarterback position and his teammates followed him to a great victory. After the game, the Colts looked very juicy to most of the public. That gives me 1/2 of the info that I need for this week's game. Buffalo looked pretty dismal versus the Saints in week one because they could not keep points off of the board. This was the second half of the info. The public perception was that Indy was going to tromp all over the Bills. The line came out at 10, so the theory said go against public perception and take the Bills.

Here's the problem: The Colts DID tromp on the Bills defense putting up 42 points. Result--Loser.

I did not even look as to whom/where/why the Colts performed the way they did in week one--only that they did, and the public was going to be on them. So, I took the Bills and lost.

You can apply this scenario to all of the games that I listed above.

This may be a terrible factor to go by, but I am goign to try it for a while.

More suggestions on how I can fine-tune this, please.

djv--If you have been looking at this for a while, I would like to see some of your numbers. I, for one, do not look at too many trends. I look at coahing styles, rivalries (only to keep it close), but most trends don't factor into where I stand too much.

I think it would be interesting to see a record of what you have kept.

Do you think we could classify these and start keeping closer records. Any suggestions on the subjects?

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Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[RobertBIrish]

I think allot of people are overlooking what a devastating affect that Robert Smith's departure has been be very careful thinking that Minnesota will cover this weekend they are a very easy team to defend now without the dominant running of Smith and he was a very big threat as a reciever out of the backfield Tampa's defense has shut down Minny with Smith without him they may not score against a defense that take MOss and Carter out of the game Culpepper and Moss are fueding and Culpepper will try to force the ball and that will be very dangerous against the Bucs secondary. People need to realize unless Minny get;s a very good RB they will be mediocre as Smith was to dangerous out of the backfield and he was responsible for allot of the times MOss and Carter were open. Just My Opinion.

 

[dawgball]

Update: I will not be playing this trend for actual money for now but will continue to track its progress.

Officially, I am taking the Baltimore/Denver game off. I am adding one that I can't believe I did not put in at first.

Green Bay--They looked great in front of the MNF crowd (even though it was against Washington). I think many people will feel they are unstoppable. Early thought: Carolina.

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Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[yyz]

I just wanna know who, "The Public" is?

They must sit right next to the "Smart Money" on the bus with Elvis and Bigfoot!

Home work will win you money at this game, nothing else.

Don't try to out-think anyone, here.....especialy the oddsmakers. These guys are paid to figure "the public" into their lines.

The 'overrated' Packers kept getting bet up on Monday, and Washington became the play for all of the crystal ball watchers in here. Now, they have their "balls" in hock!

Do your homework, guys......pure and simple.

 

[dawgball]

Final Selections:

New England +12'
Minnesota +2'
Arizona +3
Dallas +14
Cincinnati +6'
Carolina +3'

All lines from AcesGold Wednesday @ 2:00 EST.

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Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[dawgball]

yyz- Ease up, man. This is just something I am watching. No biggie. If homework was the perfect route, then we would never lose a game. If you don't want to follow it, don't. I will never ask anyone to bet something that I bring up. Your comments aren't nearly as original as you think.

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Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[yearofthesnake]

Re:Final Selections:

New England +12'....this team was in each of their first two games until them end....now catching +12> is interesting....ask nick douglas how he feels this week...the pats cost him twice in aces 5k

Minnesota +2'...this team is on my whos not list....prob won't play them even at home getting....

Arizona +3...i like the home dog angle but why are the an undy in the first place? ariz could be on my whos not list after this game as well.

Dallas +14...also on my whos not list.....the only way I would consider playing them is if I was drinking heavily with their cheerleaders.

Cincinnati +6'...this line is high..but c'mon..kitna is doing it w/smoke and mirrors...he was horrible in seattle

Carolina +3'...interesting game....might consider carolina......

 

[yyz]

Originally posted by dawgball:
Your comments aren't nearly as original as you think.

....and neither is this 'handicapping' tool.

 

[dawgball]

Now that was clever.

But I don't think this was ever called a tool.

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Sic 'em
dawgball

[This message has been edited by dawgball (edited 09-26-2001).]