dawg
i would personally disregard this approach. there a very few exceptions, but i don't see them yet at this stage of the season.
as far as the lines: yes, public perception has an influence on the lines, but we can isolate balt -7 last week. so many people saying: why is it so low? well, vegas, like many of us, detected cincy had something going and that balt is showing a major weakness on offense. ditto for minny.
g.b.'s line was not overblown at all, witnessed by so many here jumping on wash at 8, 9 and 10. i personally thought the line should have been at 10 from the very beginning, but if we take into account how the line rose, it would indicate that the money, real smart, recognized two very opposite trends going on with those two teams.
i posted in the other nfl thread:
"as unpopular as it may be, i will pick g.b. to beat wash easily", or words to that effect. that is almost a sin in this handicapping world, and brings a chuckle to some, with the perception that if "a" was blown away and "b" blew someone away, then the line will be inflated in favor of "b".
the carolina game had a precedent between these two, which favored atlanta.
i thought buff had the possiblities of a cover, but skipped it anyway, knowing the explosiveness of indy, where the line should have around 14, as field goals are negligible in that spot.
tenn is one of those that may fall in the category you mentioned. it became a bandwagon here at madjack, even as most of us think we are that smart, we are not immune to that effect. i too, passed on that game, mostly because of all the noise for tenn, but still favoring jax.
i definitely think you are going to drive yourself crazy trying to figure out what the public perceives, etc., as we are also part of that j.q.p. we all talk about. yes, you and i.
pep
