Outright plays (1.5pts):
Jerry Kelly to win 33/1 e.w. @ Expekt and Coral
With only two par-5s and small greens, it takes more than just an ability to putt on Bermuda greens at Waialae. Four of the last five winners have been top-ranked in par-4 scoring in this event (the only exception was 2001 when he ranked 2nd) and four of the last six winners have been top-ranked in scrambling. With a top-20 ranking in scrambling and par-4 performance last year, plus being 2nd-ranked in par-3 performance, Kelly should be suited to this course and it is borne out by his results: 1st, 4th and 5th in the last three years. These are big odds with such course form.
Peter Lonard to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
Lonard's 2004 stats do not make pretty reading, but he was struggling with injury for the most part and it was rather amazing to see the improvement in form when fully fit back in Australia. He won three straight events, including a Von Nida Tour event and finished 8th in the MasterCard Masters. A repeat of his top-15 finish in 2003 will be the least of his targets given this form.
Jonathan Byrd to win 100/1 e.w. available generally
Another trend in this event is that four of the last six winners had played in the Mercedes Championships the previous week and all but Els - who won both weeks - had played poorly at Kapalua finishing outside the top-20. In the two remaining years, the runner-up had played at Kapalua and finished no more than mid-table. So with Byrd finishing the week strongly to rise to 13th place, it does appear to have been good preparation for this event. He has made the cut in his three previous appearances, was in the running for the first three rounds last year and is a winner on Bermuda greens in his stage of Georgia. Makes 100/1 appear generous.
Jerry Kelly to win 33/1 e.w. @ Expekt and Coral
With only two par-5s and small greens, it takes more than just an ability to putt on Bermuda greens at Waialae. Four of the last five winners have been top-ranked in par-4 scoring in this event (the only exception was 2001 when he ranked 2nd) and four of the last six winners have been top-ranked in scrambling. With a top-20 ranking in scrambling and par-4 performance last year, plus being 2nd-ranked in par-3 performance, Kelly should be suited to this course and it is borne out by his results: 1st, 4th and 5th in the last three years. These are big odds with such course form.
Peter Lonard to win 66/1 e.w. available generally
Lonard's 2004 stats do not make pretty reading, but he was struggling with injury for the most part and it was rather amazing to see the improvement in form when fully fit back in Australia. He won three straight events, including a Von Nida Tour event and finished 8th in the MasterCard Masters. A repeat of his top-15 finish in 2003 will be the least of his targets given this form.
Jonathan Byrd to win 100/1 e.w. available generally
Another trend in this event is that four of the last six winners had played in the Mercedes Championships the previous week and all but Els - who won both weeks - had played poorly at Kapalua finishing outside the top-20. In the two remaining years, the runner-up had played at Kapalua and finished no more than mid-table. So with Byrd finishing the week strongly to rise to 13th place, it does appear to have been good preparation for this event. He has made the cut in his three previous appearances, was in the running for the first three rounds last year and is a winner on Bermuda greens in his stage of Georgia. Makes 100/1 appear generous.
