Sony Open in Hawaii

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:


Zach Johnson(35/1) e.w.
- - I knew after Thursday he would be get a play this week, and after Friday's 75 I didn't waiver for a moment from that decision.


Sean O'Hair(40/1) e.w.
- - O'Hair's best play has yet to manifest itself in a one and done fashion, and IMO his game was really sharp last week.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=53725


Parker McLachlin(100/1) e.w.
- - Some weeks I struggle to manufacture some plays, other weeks I see ANGLES from which you can't "hold me back" regardless of . . . anything, Tiger or price included; I'll never have a trigger finger worth a lick if that ever changes . . . With a great experience on the heels of opening 6 over par on his first 4 holes, I really can't think of a second chance quite like it.
http://media.starbulletin.com/images/300*399/20090110_spt_mclachlin.jpg


Harrison Frazar(125/1) e.w.
- - I've had his name sketched in for shots in two straight events, maybe something gives.


Jarrod Lyle(250/1) e.w.
- - With a scary weather forecast, my instincts have me looking at bigger prices at a chance for value.


Pat Perez(50/1) e.w.
- - Finally, with a scary weather forecast, my experience tells me to go easy, but I'm very OK with my reasons behind each of my previous plays, and I'm very OK with giving Double P the place of honor as the last name not left behind on the cutting room floor. His wedding is the ANGLE of profundity that will have his name on my short list for a decent bit. FWIW, here is the link to an interesting wedding video: - Perez Wedding Trailer . And i doubt the video link will be around indefinitely, so I'll add a boring picture link: http://www.patperezgolf.com/blog/uploaded_images/hitched-741452.jpg .



Matchups:

Weekley(-145) over Holmes (Tournament)
Z.Johnson(-110) over Cink (Tournament)



Like last week, I will be editing this post as time permits.


I'll need at least a saver on Ogilvy as I need a strong reason to pick up a winning marker.



GL

 

[DerrickTulips]

Davis Love 20/1 - Horses for courses, I said it last week.. expect love to be in the top 15 by years end
Rory Sabbatini 28/1 - Been in Hawaii since December.
David Toms 33/1 - Horses for courses
Tim Wilkinson 100/1 Tipped this way before Tindall was on it :nono: but he noticed the same thing I did.
Kevin Na 110/1 - This course reminds me a lot of Harbour Town
Webb Simpson 200/1
Alex Cejka 225/1 :SIB His site says he came over to Hawaii and played some early practie rounds here, and is fully healthy.
Jimmy Walker 33 to 1 to finish in the top 10

Hoping these tips are better than last weeks.

Steve Lowery (Tourn) -105 vs Azuma Yano (Tourn) <-- who :shrug: Lowery has been on the island and shown signs of life last week, nice course history here
Johnson Wagner (Tourn) -105 vs Andres Romero (Tourn) <-- see above + when Romero is off he is way off. Showed absolutely nothing last week, horrendous putting also
Brian Gay (Tourn) -130 vs Paul Goydos (Tourn) <-- Gay has been on the island and doesn't have to adjust. Goydos is a fluke winner who is vastly overrated.:kiss:
Sterling -105 over Pavin

Chalmers +125 over Lonard

 

[JimmyTime]

Outright (ytd 0-4 -4 units)

Zach Johnson 33/1: As long as he broke par last week I liked this selection. This course will really suit his game. Similar game to Stricker, who has done very well here along with donald, ames and choi. The difference is Johnson is a closer and can runaway when given the opportunity and choi's price is not too attractive.

Carl Petterson 50/1: Similar game to the type that wins here as well, doesn't over power a course but works his way through hit. A good ball striker with the ability to work it both ways...if carl putts well he can post some low numbers. His game wasn't all too sharp last week though finished with a one bogey 68.

Jeff Overton 100/1: This course traditionally favors an accurate shot maker, though in recent years we've seen some longer players have success like JB Holmes and Bubba Watson. I expect a win from Overton in the early going this season. He was very close last year and then had an emergency appendectomy, I will likely be backing him the next few weeks and fancy his chances at the Bob Hope, Phoenix or even Pepple. But I'd be a fool to look past him this week at triple digits. Too good of a player for those odds.

 

[c20916]

One 72 holer for now

Zach Johnson -110 ov Tim Clark 2 units W

Zach played well on the weekend and this is Clark's first time playing in this tourney. I know he's coming off the Aussie open win in Dec, but still like my chances with Zach.

Waiting for lines from another out on these matchups, but here are two more plays:

72 holes:

Kelly -110 ov Imada 2 units Push
Matteson -130 ov Wilkinson 2 units W

Also ended up playing Zach Johnson to win at 25-1 BIG W

Adding these first rounders:
Pat Perez -120 ov Baird L
Marino +120 ov Tim Clark W
Gay ev ov Howell III W

Pat has played well here 3 of the last 4 years t-4, t-10, cut and t-20. He led the PGA in all around stats last year and hoping he continues that in his first round this year. A word of caution though is Baird seems to be my albatross, last year I would bet on him he plays like crap, bet against him and he plays lights out. I hope that trend doesn't continue.

Damn Baird got me again, I will now avoid any matchups with him.

For round 2 waiting for lines but will probably play these:

Gay -105 ov Howell III W
Marino -110 Ov Clark W
O'Hair -120 ov Pettersson W

Nice 3-0 yesterday see if we can keep it going today:

Z. Johnson +110 ov Ogilvy W
Gay -120 ov Shigeki Push
Kelly +110 ov Sabbatini W

2-0-1 for today, try to keep it going tomorrow, having a good week so far a Zach Johnson win would only make it sweeter. I'll be pulling for him tomorrow that's for sure. He gave one away on 18.

The 72 holers unless tim clark pulls a Tad I will win that one, the other two I am on stroke back on each, hoping to at least get one of them.

Round 4 matchups:

McNeil -140 ov NaL
Donald -110 ov PerryW
Boo -110 ov Howell III L

waiting for the lines, hopefully WSEX will have them up quicker today.

 

[DerrickTulips]

Read some injury info on Peter Lonard.. getting GregChalmers at +125 seems like value.

So Chalmers +125 over Lonard

PETER Lonard, resigned to eventually having surgery on a troublesome shoulder injury, has been revitalised by deep tissue massage and is set to resume playing on the US PGA Tour this week in Hawaii. Bruce Young writing on Lonard?s official website www.peterlonard.com reports: ?Peter is feeling a lot better about his health and his game than was the case when the Australian Open was completed four weeks ago. At that point he was concerned about a shoulder injury that had been bothering him for some time. ?My shoulder is definitely a lot better than was the case previously that's for sure,? said Peter ?I started hitting balls again on January 2nd and there has been virtually no pain in that time. I spent quite a bit of time out at the NSW Institute of Sport at Homebush under the care of Brent Kirkbride and had lots of deep tissue massage which I have to say I had not been all that keen on previously but so far so good. I feel really good about the way I am hitting the ball and am enthusiastic about getting back to playing tournaments again. Peter will play the first four full events of the season namely the Sony, the Bob Hope in La Quinta in California, the FBR in Phoenix and then The Buick at Torrey Pines before taking a week off.? At Christmas Lonard told Young in an audio interview that while his shoulder injury was not the reason why had played poorly in Australia this summer it definitely was something he had to address. ?For me the best option is to see how long it can go for,?? Lonard said ?I?m 41 now and I have said I will retire at 45 so hopefully it can get past 45 and think about it then.?

 

[Cantona7]

Davis Love Sony Open 0.75pt ew 18/1 SkyBet
Ogilivy and Els start worthy favourites but don't make a lot of appeal at the prices. Instead, we'll move to the 3rd favourite. Love was close to being a pick last week and we'll not repeat the mistake. He looks back to his best and this is a course where he has finished in the Top 3 twice when in his pomp. KJ Choi was close to being a pick but didn't look as sharp last week.
Steve Marino Sony Open 0.5pt ew 50/1 Boylesports
We like Marino here this week. He had a strong end to 2008 on the PGA Tour with an 18-3 finish in his last two events before a resonable performance in Japan in December. He finished 4th here last year and we see no reason why he can't match that or possibly even improve this time around.
Pat Perez Sony Open 0.5pt ew 50/1 Boylesports
Seems fitting we back Perez given we've tipped up Alex Noren in Europe! Finished the PGA season in great style and this is a course where he has finished 4th and 10th in the last two years. In addition to getting married, he has apparently been working hard on his swing so we'll take a chance on him hitting the ground running.

 

[AK2009Masters]

just 1 play this week ... j kelly -105 vs r imada at cris ... passing on outrights with all that slop

 

[DerrickTulips]

What do you guys think about the weather on Thursday, do you think the early or late will have an advantage?


By the way bow down to Adam Scott.. first Ana Ivanovic and now kate hudson

 

[phar.lap]

72 holes

Weekley -130 to beat JB Homes (Pinnacle)

Tim Clark -103 to beat Sabbatini (Centrebet)

 

[PGS]

Steve Marino 50-1 ew

 

[DerrickTulips]

Would be nice if the pga tour website decided to work.. :shrug:

Matt Kuchar (1st Rnd) -125 vs Matt Bettencourt (1st Rnd)

Many reasons for this play.. I'll give 2

• Morning vs Late (check the weather)
• Veteran vs a guy making his first career pga start

 

[DerrickTulips]

Jimmy Walker 33 to 1 to finish in the top 10

Dude shot 65 68 to open last year

?I've been playing great,? Walker said last week, shortly before flying to Hawaii. ?I plan to play really well, and I'm playing to win, too.?

Saw that tidbit

 

[DerrickTulips]

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement, saying the entire state may be hit with damaging winds tomorrow and Friday

This will play a huge factor all week :shrug:

 

[Another Steve]

S STRICKER wins SONY OPEN-HAWAIpick @+20.00
Z JOHNSON wins SONY OPEN-HAWAIIpick @+25.00


S STRICKER OV/K PERRY pick @-1.25

 

[Chorizos]

Very nervous about the weather, but here we go:

K.J. Choi to win - +1800 Laying .5 units to win 9 units

S. Stricker - Top 5 +425 Laying .5 units to win 2.125 units

B. Baird - Top 10 +850 Laying .5 units to win 4.250 units

H2H

J. Wagner over A. Romero - -108 Laying 1.08 units to win 1 unit

C. Pettersson over S. O'Hair - +110 Laying 1 unit to win 1.1 units

Good luck!

 

[DerrickTulips]

The weather could distort everything. IT might be like the US Open and the person with the better draw whens.. :shrug:

Should be interesting tomorrow. I might hedge out or add more depending on early weather in the am :0corn

 

[Toto]

This forecast for rain and 50 mph winds has me going lightly this week. Took Boo -135 over JB, Jb's few top 20's for a long time vs. a Florida guy who should have more experience on Bermuda greens and playing in the wind, we'll see. GL

 

[scrub]

Ok well a t-2 last week and a t-7 but not a win here we go this week.



Gay 60-1 50 units
Herron 80-1 50 units
Maruyama 80-1 50 units
Mayfair 80-1 50 units
Van Pelt 80-1 50 units
Overton 100-1 25 units

i did not play kelly ,and i wanted to paly john huston but could get odds good luck to all

 

[Cie]

Was gonna hold off on golf wagering, but couldn't resist on first full fied tourney.......


18 holes

Perez -125 over Baird


72 holes

Kelly -120 over Imada
Perez -115 over Marino



GL

 

[DerrickTulips]

Just added
Sterling -105 over Pavin

Sterling had a decent showing here last year, and played alright during Q School, also ended the year strong. So I'm guessing his game is at least in decent shape. Corey has missed the cut here the last 3 times and

"I'm certainly not thinking this is going to be easy," Pavin said, grinning. "I haven't played since Boston [Deutsche Bank Championship]. I am going to try to enjoy my golf as much as I can while getting ready for next year.
I'd like to play well, for sure, but I'll have to see how I do juggling things," said Pavin, cooling his heels in the locker room at Waialae CC while waiting to get treatment in the physical therapy room. "This week, it's more or less about knocking the rust off the game. I haven't done much for about three months. It was mostly daddy duty, which was great; my daughter [Alexis] turned one, so that was all good. It's been a nice time, but I'm eager to get back out there and play and see what I still have."