Sony Open

[DOGS THAT BARK]

for starters

outrights to place 1 unit each @ 5dimes(5places)
Sluman 8/1
Huston 9/1

72 holes
Huston -111 over Donald @ Sportingbet (ties lose)

Liking Huston here. Donald did make good showing with 13th here in only attempt last year,but Huston has 2 top 5's and 4 top 15's in last 5 here and no secret bout him liking bermuda greens.
Biggest factor however is Huston made 91.6% of cuts vs Donalds 74% last year.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Haven't got in Skybet yet but was looking for there place only and don't see them??
Whats with Gamebookers. No matches yet this year and outrights of 2places?Looking to exit there before superbowl possibly takes its toll.

Their reply on question

Dear Sir,


Thank you for contacting us. We woild like to inform you that we shall
offer match-ups and outrights (1 to 4 place). Keep up with our site.

Regards,
gamebookers.com
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Hmmm Wonder how this will effect VJ ??????????
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/030114/1/36hlf.html

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
gonna take a shot at him with/all 72 holes
Furyk +110 over Singh @ Cascade (damn they went to 15 cent lines)
also adding 72 holes (ties lose)
Kelly -110 over Dimarco @ 365
Huston -111 over Lehman @ B&W
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
adding 72 holes @ 5dime
Pampling -110 over Crane
Better rated and superior cut ave.

 

[lostinamerica]

I had some early and fairly strong leans on four plays after the lines were posted at Bet365, and I did some early (for me) digging that I felt offered plenty to support and very little to discourage any of the leans. So for starters I made some early downpayments at Bet365 on e.w. plays on Goosen(20/1), Sluman(40/1), Byrd(50/1) and Gossett(150/1). I will post official plays and add some thoughts before things get underway.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (0.5 units):

Retief Goosen to win 20/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Did think about siding with Vijay, but opted for a South African sweep of the Hawaiian Swing instead. Has not played this course previously, but was very impressive last week and at home on the Bermuda greens which are prevalent in South Africa. This course is tighter than last week and this should suit the former U.S. Open winner.

Chris Riley to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BlueSq, Coral and UKBetting
The move to a shorter, tighter course should also suit Riley who ranked 27th of 36 in driving distance last week. An uncharacteristically poor week on the greens last week for the player with the best short game on Tour and it will surely be less rusty this week. He has good form in three of four years in this event and looks a genuine title contender these days.

Robert Allenby to win 50/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Large price for someone who had been a double-winner on the PGA Tour in 2000 and 2001. Had an impressive close to 2002, including two runners-up spots on the PGA Tour and comes into this event refreshed. He has played here four times and has improved on his position every time. With a low ball flight and excellent iron-play, he should go lower this time as well.

 

[milpalm]

Allenby 50/1 Bet365. Straight hitter who should be suited here. Overpriced IMO.

Choi 33/1 Willhill. Impressed last week when he was 2nd. 7th here last year. Both his wins last year were on courses with bermuda greens.

 

[Ian]

Backed quite a few this week as they all seemed overpriced to me - the Els factor has pushed out prices on the lower players, have mainly looked at accurate players
Donald 66/1
Tanaka 100/1
Faxon 80/1
smaller bets on
Kuchar 150/1
Browne 200/1
Ames 200/1
+ looking for prices on......

 

[bettingmad]

I've yet to have a bet on this and it must be the right decision....
genuinely surprised that Stan & Milpalm have tipped Allenby. Although he is a player I have always liked I only had 2 bismarcks for this week and he was one of them!! I will be very happy for you if he wins.... will definitely have saved myself a few quid by not having a bet on it. Though you 2 top tipsters putting him up has certainly put me off going against him in match bet....

 

[steved]

0.5 ew DiMarco...40/1 (VC) last year 5th in Mercedes then poor here...this year poor last week.....5th here? or better?
0.5 ew Lonard ...66/1 (Coral) good accurate player, hope he has not forgotten that he wins every week...
0.5 ew Edwards...80/1 (BSq) good improving form here..

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 72 holes @ 5dime
Pampling -110 over Crane
Better rated and superior cut ave.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
SHIT! Skybet just informed me no CC transactions from U.S.
SNAIL MAIL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

some pretty interesting info on equipment change at end of article
http://sports.yahoo.golfserv.com/gdc/news/article.asp?Source=YAHOO&id=9409

 

[bettingmad]

DTB,
I suppose you mean the Robert Allenby change. I suppose I should have mentioned that as part of my reasons in the earlier post but..... it didn't stop Ernie last week

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

That was 1st I saw of it Steve. One thing about Allenby is he is dangerous anywhere and slips up when you least expect.
Hope Ernies success continues would love to see him accomplish Garcia's fantacy.

 

[bettingmad]

Robert Allenby has always been one of my favourite players since backing him when he won 3 times in Europe in the same season but he wasn't as dangerous last year..... I put a stop to that. In one of your posts just before Xmas in 2001 you asked for a player to follow for 2002.... I put Allenby up as mine having won twice in each of the previous two seasons and he's a bit inconsistent so when he wins you get a good price... the weight of my support proved too much for him and he hasn't visited the winners circle since!!! He must be a relieved man now my monkey has been taken off his back

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (0.5 units unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat Carlos Franco -140 @ WSEX
Always look to oppose Franco in match bets as he is still inclined to lose interest in over the weekend if not in contention. Last year, he ranked 39th in scoring average before the cut, but 108th in the 3rd round and 132nd in the final round! Did play better towards the end of last season, but not enough to avoid siding with an outright selection again.

Peter Lonard to beat Jonathan Byrd -110 @ Carib
Excellent end to last season and last week for Byrd and he will surely feature at some stage this week. But Lonard is an excellent player for matchups, he was very consistent last year and this only waned once his shoulder injury became restrictive. He returned to form with back-to-back victories on the ANZ Tour at the end of last year and stands a decent chance of making amends for losing out to Byrd for the 2002 Rookie of the Year award.

Len Mattiace to beat Alex Cejka -111 @ BetandWin [1.5 units]
Cejka was in the form of his life at the end of 2002 and if he can repeat it, he will earn many dollars this year. But not on this course. His ball flight is too high, he has very little experience of playing Bermuda greens and no experience of playing Hawaii at all. Mattiace recovered well from a poor 1st round last week and while a repeat of his 1999 runners-up spot is very unlikely, he should win this match with ease.

Loren Roberts to beat Luke Donald -110 @ Victor Chandler and BetInternet
It was an impressive performance last week by Roberts to compete for so long on such a long course. This should be better-suited to his game and he has secured two top-10 finishes in the last four years at Waialae. Donald trails Roberts 11-4-0 in head-to-heads in the past year and while he is improving, Robets should be able to finish ahead for the 2nd week in a row.

John Rollins to beat Pat Perez -111 @ BetandWin
Perez is a player to side with for outrights and oppose for matchups. In his last ten starts in 2002, he secured four top-12 finishes, two finishes outside the top-65, two missed cuts and two post-1st round withdrawals. Over the past year, Rollins leads 18-7-0 in head-to-heads and having spent a week in Hawaii, another solid mid-table finish should be enough.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS for 0.25* e.w. @ Bet 365:

Retief Goosen(20/1)
The mighty Goosen lost some of his aura last year after his final round pairing with Woods at The Masters and was possibly overextended in his efforts to get it back. Coming back with a bit of a vengeance off the start or early on this season is almost to be expected. There is plenty to like about his chances at Waialae, and taking heart from the success last week of his fellow countryman and Orlando neighbor and friend would also be the return of a theme that percolated on last year's tours. However, I would have preferred his not drawing the marquee pairing for the week.

Jeff Sluman(40/1)
During my decades as just a fan I have always enjoyed it when one of the veterans emerges with a blast from the past, including players that never really went away but just hadn't exactly lit it up on the first go round. Sluman appears to have that kind of a fever and designs on making the most of it. He is sure bringing good form to a nice opportunity. Two noteworthy tidbits on the type of year Sluman might be gearing himself towards are (1) he has never represented the U.S.A. in international competition and he currently ranks 12th in the Presidents Cup standings (also noted in a DTB link), and (2) on tour he represents Oak Hill C.C. in his hometown of Rochester, N.Y., which is the site of the P.G.A. in August. It might be an angle or it might mean nothing.

David Gossett(150/1)
Obviously this young man is not a very highly regarded professional at the start of this season. Maybe that will change before too long. When I look I see an ambitious and mature individual with a solid work ethic, a player that appreciates the game a little bit more than most, and a bright and well-schooled young man who understands his own swing and game and embraces opportunities to refine and improve his abilities and stature. The well traveled kid from Tennessee must be at least a little O.K. with Bermuda greens. I've heard him talk about his love of playing knockdown shots from the fairway and working on all the shots from 50 yards and in, and he has obviously displayed some of that flair in some of his best performances at venues like Pebble Beach and Westchester. He also managed to better 70 in 3 of his 4 rounds at Waialae last year. I think he will start the year prepared and expecting to hole his share of putts and make good things happen. I'll crash and burn far more often than I'll be right, and I have only been at this for less than 52 weeks, but I have NEVER felt I was holding so much value on a 100+/1 shot.

Jonathan Byrd(50/1 and 40/1)
I'll play a hunch that he came to Hawaii with legs under any uptick. He also draws a Byrd/Sluman/Begay pairing that just appeals to me and I think can work nicely for all three players.
---------- ---------- ----------

Tim Clark(14/1)
I very much saw something I liked in his response to that chipping fiasco that was indelibly unlike anything I've ever witnessed before from a championship leader. I think there is a bit of fire left in the stove this week.
---------- ---------- ----------

MATCHUPS and 3 BALLS:

Singh(-140) over Garcia for 1* @ 5dimes
Whatcha been working on, Sergio? I don't think putting with a wedge and a broom handle was what I was expecting. On the basis of recently supplied evidence, if he laps the field with his talent this week, I'll still be likely to be looking to oppose him at the next opportunity. The hard working Singh earns an early season nod from me here.

PARLAY: Sauers(+188) over Perry/Beem AND Gossett(+275) over Kelly/Donald for 0.50* @ 9.78/1 @ Bet365
I do like 3 Balls.

GL

 

[Myron]

Well I went for Garcia and Maruyama again.

Garcia e/w at 25/1 for 3 units
Maruyama e/w at 50/1 for 2 units

Also bet Chris DiMarco e/w at 36/1 for 1 unit

 

[wannabe whale]

Best of Luck to everyone on the links this year.

Sony Open

To Win:
Choi 24-1
JKelly 33-1
Longshot:
Maruyama 48-1

Matchups:
Leggatt +110 Over C Smith 2 units**
Goosen -110 Over Furyk 2 units**
DiMarco Over Riley 2 units**

 

[warner]

this week

this week

not to good last week -278
goosen o fuyrk 86/75
singh o fuyrk 105/75
lehman o cook 101/75
lonard o allenby 70/50
lonard 0 byrd 55/50
goosen 15/250
riley 15/300
allenby 15/450

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding
outright Funk to place @ 5dimes (5places)

Funk has decent form here with 3 top 15's last 4 years.
He kind of a Rodney Dangerfield of golf. With 6 top 5's in 25 events last there were only 6 players that had better PRR (Place Rate of Return) on whole tour,in order Woods-Mick-Toms-Els-Oly and Singh. Will take the 9/1 as his 2003 PRR break even odds were 4.8

also adding72 holes
Funk -111 vs Lowery @ Sia (ties lose) other than above he was 13-5 vs Lowery in matches last year and 2-0-1 on this course.

Thank you for adding the latter stats to your site Stan.Great tool!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
That should be 6 top 5's in 29 events was reading Furyks # of events below him, the 4.8 is correct

 

[Ian]

Lostinamerica - enjoy reading your sometimes baffling write-ups but this one has me beat
"Jonathan Byrd(50/1 and 40/1)
I'll play a hunch that he came to Hawaii with legs under any uptick."
Please someone - what does he mean :shrug: