St Jude Classic

Stanley

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Outright plays (1 unit):

Nick Price to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and UKBetting
Few can match Price's form or course history this week and so is a straightforward selection. He has failed to repeat his return to the winner's circle of 2002, but he has come very close this term. He has finished in the top-5 in three of his last four events and these have been against much stronger fields, particularly the U.S. Open. Twice a winner in this event in the past ten years, he will certainly fancy his chances this week.

Jay Haas to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ SkyBet
The last two are hardly proven winners, so taking the place-only option instead. It has been ten years since Haas last won on the PGA Tour, but eleven years ago he did win this event. He has finished in the top-20 in each of the last three season, a feat that he has achieved in nine of the fourteen years that this event has been held at Southwind. He has come very close to breaking that run this year with 2nd place finishes in the Bob Hope Classic and the Players Championship, so he is still competitive and improved in every round last week to finish 6th against a much stronger field. He is as low as 20/1 in places and looks good to at least contend this week.

Tim Petrovic to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ SkyBet
Petrovic certainly contended last year. He was the first-round leader and remained with the leaders throughout, only to be denied by a charging Len Mattiace in the final round. He finished one shot back in 2nd place, which is a problem he has had in the last few years. He finished 2nd, 2nd and 3rd in consecutive events on the Nationwide Tour in 2001 and has had two top-five finishes this year (Phoenix Open and Ford Open). Despite last week's missed cut, he has shown good form since the Wachovia Championship in May, including a 15th place finish in the U.S. Open two weeks ago. Looks unlikely to win, but certainly capable of repeating last year's performance.
 

Ian

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To my mind a very weak field for this years renewal - the Toms quote of around 10/1 is appalling value - couple of rags for me - Notah confines his best efforts to tracks he plays well - 100/1 for a previous winner - and Damron loves this place and played well at the US Open for quite a while - also 100/1
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Did ya all not like my Fed Ex St Jude thread :)
will transfer to this thread.

Fed Ex St Jude
one early 72 hole @ Sportingbet
Gamez -111 over Kuchar
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
adding 72 holes @ SIA
Petrovic -110 over Austin
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
72 Holes @ Gamebookers
Petrovic -111 over Mattiace
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
outright to place @ Boyles top 5
Gamez 10/1
 
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Stanley

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Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):

Stephen Ames to beat John Daly -111 @ BetandWin [2 units]
Can't turn down an opportunity to oppose Daly. He has shot just one round out of his last twelve in the 60s and barring a 5th place finish in 2001 has a poor record on this course. Ames has made the cut in nine of twelve starts this year and a repeat will surely ensure victory.

Lee Janzen to beat Notah Begay -111 @ BetandWin
Begay may have won this event in 2000 and finished 3rd in 2002, but he has made the cut in just one of his last five events with just two of his last eighteen rounds in the 60s. Janzen has a 14-2-0 h2h record against Begay over the past 12 months and the runner-up in last months Memorial Tournament should certainly be a heavy favourite in this matchup.

Robert Gamez to beat Matt Kuchar -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
No comparison between a player who has finished in the top-20 in four of his last six starts and one who has missed the cut in five of his last eight. They have played in 12 common events this year and Gamez has finished ahead of Kuchar on every occasion! In this form, this shouldn't be unlucky thirteen.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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adding 72 holes (both ties lose)
Roberts -110 over Baird @ SIA
Tripp -110 over Huston @ 365

adding outright to place @ Oly (4 places)
Petrovic 13/1

Note: Oly has Euro outrights this week--be curious to see if they line them later in running.

Question Stan? Does SIA have different lines for Euro. I have always noted you have their matches @ -111 yet I get them @ -110 I think? Note parlay>

Selection Price

St. Jude Classic: T Petrovic v W Austin
T Petrovic 1.90

St. Jude Classic: N Price v C DiMarco
N Price 1.90

St. Jude Classic: L Roberts v B Baird
L Roberts 1.90

St. Jude Classic: J Huston v S Flesch
S Flesch 1.90
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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I had it exactly backasswards as usual:lol:

What had me stumped was their payouts of $95 for $50 wager

Selection Price

St. Jude Classic: L Roberts v B Baird
L Roberts 1.90


Bet Type Straight bet on above selection


Bet Price 1.90


Bet Amount $50.00


Bet Payout $95.00


Time Placed June 25 05:06
 
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Stanley

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Adding (1 unit):

Tim Petrovic to beat Woody Austin -111 @ Paddy Power and SIA
Austin has maintained the good form that almost netted him the Heritage in April, but Petrovic has still finished ahead of him in three of their last four common events and has a far superior course history. Austin has played at Southwind seven times, he has made the weekend only twice and on those two occasions he finished 70th and 74th. In his 18 rounds on this course, he has only once shot a round better than Petrovic's worst round from last year. Siding with the outright selection again.

Jay Haas to beat Joey Sindelar -118 @ Easybets
No comparison between these two other than age. Sindelar's 3rd place finish last week earned him his biggest paycheck of his career, but he had missed seven of his last eleven cuts, with a previous best finish of 39th. He he last had a career week - he was 2nd in the 2002 Honda Classic - he then finished 45th the following week and then missed the next six cuts. He has played this course three times and only once made the cut - a 70th place finish in 1989. No comparison to a player selected for the outright market.
 

lostinamerica

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I wish I had some time to post some comments and impressions on the U.S. Open, Olympia Fields and Chicago, but no such luxury right now. Maybe something brief before the Western Open when it may still have a sliver of relevance.

OUTRIGHTS:

Aaron Baddeley(100/1) for 0.60* @ Bet365
I have to agree with Ian about some appalling value as one of the themes for this week, but Baddeley would interest me at Southwind this week at about 2/3 of the initial offering, and I think the price has been cut down to just about that.
(1) http://www.badds.com/
(2) http://www.golf365.com/Latest_News/story_2917.shtml

Robert Gamez(40/1) for 0.60* @ Bet365
Let's see whether two weeks on the sidelines has cooled his temperment or just his game after eight straight weeks in the ringer including Sectional qualifying for the U.S. Open.

Notah Begay(80/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
He seems far more capable this week than I would generally give him credit for being.
Note: An "after the wager" enhancement: http://www.gomemphis.com/mca/golf/article/0,1426,MCA_473_2065265,00.html

Tim Petrovic(40/1) for 0.50* @ Bet365
There are prospects for a fine effort this week, but those odds have me wishing I could do better.

Carl Pettersson(125/1) for 0.40* @ Bet365
When my choices are shaded toward some of the longer odds I can readily justify a bulging slate, but this flea-bitten pick is "out there" even by my standards.

First Round Leader for 0.20* each @ Bet365:
Begay(80/1)
Baddeley(100/1)
Gamez(50/1)
Pride(125/1)
Daly(100/1)
There is nothing appalling about the prices available on these "one and done" opportunities. And I made a pledge to myself to stick with capping these wagers for the foreseeable future whenever offered after I hit on a measly $2 bet when Gamez(50/1) grabbed the outright lead at the FBR Capital Open.


MATCHUPS:

Pettersson(+110) over Senden (Tournament) for 1* @ Olympic

GL
 

bombercoops

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Nice stats on Price Stan. Going to load up on him aswell along with my fellow countryman Baddeley who I once played a bit of golf with back in the junior days. Showing value at 100/1.:D
 

sandwedge

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does anyone know if daly played any holes before wd'ing? i notice both "withdrew" and "did not start" for players at the bottom of the board as was wondering if the withdrew tag by definition means some holes were completed.
 

milpalm

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Found this on pgatour.com:

John Daly withdrew shortly before his morning tee time, forcing Nick Price and Bob Estes to play as a twosome. Senior rules official Arvin Ginn caught up with Daly in the parking lot and asked him why he was pulling out. Daly responded by vomiting. "I saw the man. He was sick, hunkered down sick," Ginn said.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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1st rd results

Mattiace -120 over Sauers Win
Mattiace has one hole left but 5 stroke lead so hope its safe to declare.

see zilch for 2nd rd but WSEX not up yet so maybe--
 

sandwedge

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thanks for the info milpalm.

so i get a push instead of a win due to john's hangover :(
 

Stanley

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2nd round update: 0-1-0; -3.54 units

Baird/Waldorf LOST by 4

Mid-point update:

Janzen/Begay Leads by 5
Gamez/Kuchar Trails by 1

Price 53rd
Haas 6th
Petrovic 23rd

Heavy loss on the day, but generally favourable outlook on the rest of the plays. Haas had been 1st round leader, but he and Petrovic have good chances of securing the top-5 finish. Withdrawals decimated the matchup plays and only two remain.

3rd round plays (1 unit):

Kevin Sutherland to beat Notah Begay -126 @ Five Dimes
Pat Bates to beat Hank Kuehne -117 @ Five Dimes
Jay Williamson to beat Scott McCarron -110 @ Five Dimes
 
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