You silly man.
You're theory of "its a fact jack, when oil goes up, the market goes down. always. in the past 18 months." has been busted as a farce.
This is the comment I've been waiting for too.. because the nice man that wrote that blurb that you bolded.. well.. go back to the original article and reads his comments section below and well... hopefully you'll finally get it.
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Higher oil means lower stocks, and vice-versa. Right?"
Oil prices and stock prices are uncorrelated (or very weakly negatively correlated) historically, and looking at your chart, they seem pretty uncorrelated on a day to day basis for this year as well.
Saying that prices are correlated on a daily basis is rather subjective. I wonder what you are looking at in that chart to say that they have been correlated this year? Wouldn't there need to be some flat spots to say anything reasonable? I don't think the periods you've highlighted even would qualify...
Post reply ? 6 days ago
+1Vote upVote down Paul Kedrosky ? 63p Of course they are uncorrelated over time. I was making fun of pundits who have been acting for weeks like every week on the markets hinges on oil, and so my tongue was very deeply in cheek, as I thought was fairly obvious.
To be plain, to the extent that you can argue that there were two brief periods this year when oil and the S&P 500 were somewhat in line this year, we're back to normal: No meaningful correlation. Post reply ? 6 days ago
This comment has 0 hidden replies. Show them! 0Vote upVote down John K Fair enough, I thought there was I thought there was a good chance that you were at least partly ironic. However, if you polled people, I'm sure well over 60% would believe that historically stocks/oil prices ARE highly correlated.
Even so, I'm still not sure that your chart shows anything meaningful even during the periods you highlighted.
Finally, I fully expect to see a NYT or other major newspaper article citing this blog post someday as proof that oil and stock prices ARE correlated: "As internet / VC pundit Paul Kedrosky wrote recenty: 'This year the major U.S. markets have been driven largely by what has happened in oil markets.'" Right?
You're theory of "its a fact jack, when oil goes up, the market goes down. always. in the past 18 months." has been busted as a farce.
This is the comment I've been waiting for too.. because the nice man that wrote that blurb that you bolded.. well.. go back to the original article and reads his comments section below and well... hopefully you'll finally get it.
---------------
Higher oil means lower stocks, and vice-versa. Right?"
Oil prices and stock prices are uncorrelated (or very weakly negatively correlated) historically, and looking at your chart, they seem pretty uncorrelated on a day to day basis for this year as well.
Saying that prices are correlated on a daily basis is rather subjective. I wonder what you are looking at in that chart to say that they have been correlated this year? Wouldn't there need to be some flat spots to say anything reasonable? I don't think the periods you've highlighted even would qualify...
Post reply ? 6 days ago
+1Vote upVote down Paul Kedrosky ? 63p Of course they are uncorrelated over time. I was making fun of pundits who have been acting for weeks like every week on the markets hinges on oil, and so my tongue was very deeply in cheek, as I thought was fairly obvious.
To be plain, to the extent that you can argue that there were two brief periods this year when oil and the S&P 500 were somewhat in line this year, we're back to normal: No meaningful correlation. Post reply ? 6 days ago
This comment has 0 hidden replies. Show them! 0Vote upVote down John K Fair enough, I thought there was I thought there was a good chance that you were at least partly ironic. However, if you polled people, I'm sure well over 60% would believe that historically stocks/oil prices ARE highly correlated.
Even so, I'm still not sure that your chart shows anything meaningful even during the periods you highlighted.
Finally, I fully expect to see a NYT or other major newspaper article citing this blog post someday as proof that oil and stock prices ARE correlated: "As internet / VC pundit Paul Kedrosky wrote recenty: 'This year the major U.S. markets have been driven largely by what has happened in oil markets.'" Right?
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