Strong Sagarin Plays

[Scott4USC]

Last week I posted a strong Sagarin play with TCU +1 over AF and TCU won 48-10! :toast:

TCU +1 vs Air Force

Sagarin Power Rankings

TCU 78.77
Air Force 66.96

Sagarin has TCU winning by 11.8 pts!

That is a difference of 12.8pts from vegas line.

:hail :hail :hail

Here are this weeks Sagarin plays where the wrong team is favored!

Cincinnati +5 @ Syracuse

Sagarin Power Rankings

Cincinnati: 65.36
Syracuse: 60.03

Sagarin has Cincinnati winning by 5.33 pts!

That is a difference of 10.33pts from the Vegas line!

***

Southern Miss. +6.5 @ NC ST.

Sagarin Power Rankings

Southern Miss: 74.89
NC State: 72.56


Sagarin has Southern Miss winning by 2.33 pts!

That is a difference of 8.83pts from the Vegas line!

***

Colorado St. +6 @ New Mexico

Sagarin Power Rankings

Colorado State: 75.33
New Mexico: 73.55


Sagarin has Colorado St. winning by 1.78 pts!

That is a difference of 7.78pts from the Vegas line!

 

[Iowa Child]

You need to factor in the 3 or 4 points for home field, and Sagarin hasn't been that good over the years. Have a friend that played these types of plays the last couple years, and he has to beg for food. Good luck anyway for somebody who follows these.

 

[Joe De]

cincy+5 is one of my best picks this week

 

[OKD]

Appreciate the research, Scott.

 

[johnnyb.]

i like colorado st. alot this week, i might unload my ucla cash on this one... lubick has his team playing much better from earlier this year.

 

[sdf]

i like colorado st. alot this week, i might unload my ucla cash on this one... lubick has his team playing much better from earlier this year.

they just lost @ BYU by 10. how is that playing better?

 

[johnnyb.]

they just lost @ BYU by 10. how is that playing better?

sometimes results come along slower and not just by wins...
:spotting:

 

[LuckyIrish]

Nice hit on CSU!

 

[Agent 0659]

But saggarin having Cinci 65 to 60 isnt saying they will beat them 65-60?? Right?? So how is that a 5 point line? I mean I see where youre going and I think I like it but it doesnt pan out...I need clarification!

 

[ctownguy]

Great call on colo st :clap:

can't believe you liked N Mex in another thread :scared

 

[vinnie]

But saggarin having Cinci 65 to 60 isnt saying they will beat them 65-60?? Right?? So how is that a 5 point line? I mean I see where youre going and I think I like it but it doesnt pan out...I need clarification!

It's the difference between power rating he has s cinn 5 points stonger than cuse with you getting 5 you got 10 pt advantage

 

[Agent 0659]

I see that Vinnie but that rating really doesnt have anything to do with the score or the line. Right? So how is it relevant. I see if someone is ranked higher and getting points it would be worth a look but I dont think you can apply point values.

 

[vinnie]

Agent he rating has cinn -5 that's it

 

[Agent 0659]

Agent he rating has cinn -5 that's it

I know but their not!! Because the 5 point difference means nothing. Other than a team with a higher ranking is getting points which is notable.

 

[Scott4USC]

CSU hits but I lost huge on New Mexico ML. I loved New Mexico tonight but it went down the tubes in 2h. Sagarin nailed it!

I used the Sagarin power ratings and did not factor in home field. That is up to you to determine how many pts to allocate to the home team. Some teams have stronger home field advantage than others.

The norm is to to give home team 3-4pts.

Sagarin now 2-0 heading into tom. games!

 

[Agent 0659]

3-0 :scared

 

[V2J]

Nice work

 

[cavy1]

Thanks Scott I used a couple of those winners



cavy1

 

[Scott4USC]

Thanks guys! :thumb:

This system is now 4-0 last 2 weeks. All underdogs and 3/4 OUTRIGHT winners! Can't ask for better results.

I wanted strong plays where his power ratings are different than vegas line. Since it is October this has given Sagarin a large sample of games to come up with his power ratings. But I wanted something more. So I came up with a filter of teams who vegas put as UNDERDOGS and SAGARIN has winning outright. Makes sense to make them strong play. Call it Sagarin's false favorites. I guess the parameter is to make it at least 5pts different from Vegas line. NO VALUE is put on the home team. Even if you give 3pts to home team, you still have a min. 2pt advantage against vegas line.

What I like most about it is it makes logical sense.

If this system goes at least 60% ATS I will bet it BIG next year starting middle of October!

Lets see how system does next week! I'll post it.

 

[IE]

i would say quit while your ahead judging from other 4-6 years.

hopefully you bet them and cashed nicely to bank ..



quote:

I wanted strong plays where his power ratings are different than vegas line.

end of quote:

won't happen over the long haul if you use his.....