Sunday 3/16/08 Service plays

[taipans]

spritzer--
direct line.........................clemson over
dog pound........................clemson
big 12 shocker.....................texas
3*...........................wisc

insider..........................pistons
10* total..........................ny over 02
3*..........................bobcats


cokin--
Fat man plays......................wisc

window.........................tex arl
system play...................clems
under the hat...................wisc
3*.....................texx

total.........................denver over 25.5
under the hat.....................pistons



feist--
tounrney goy....................clemson
steam..................ark
steam....................nwestern st
steam......................clems(releasing this one twice)
platinum.......................wisc
5*..........................kansas

total.................ny over 02
inner circle...................hornets
5*............................rockets
4*........................knicks

 

[Zoso]

DR. Bub ??

RAS ??

 

[Spud82]

BEN BURNS
NBA

UNDER bobcats/cavs
Game: Charlotte Bobcats vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Game Time: 3/16/2008 6:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Cleveland and Charlotte to finish UNDER the number. This total is several points higher than it was for either of this season's earlier meetings, which I feel provides us with excellent value. The Bobcats, who managed only 80 points (89-80 loss) in their most recent game, have seen the UNDER go 7-3 this season after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game. They've also seen the UNDER go 4-2 on Sunday games this season and 9-5 their last 14 Sunday games overall. With Lebron James' "star power," the Cavs play on Sundays significantly more often than do their guests. Like the Bobcats, they've also shown a tendency to play low-scoring games on the "Lord's Day." In fact, the UNDER is 14-6 the last 20 times that they played on a Sunday and a highly profitable 66-31-2 their last 99. The Cavs have been involved in some relatively high-scoring games on the road recently. However, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 their last four home games and 6-1 their last seven. The only game that finished above the total during that seven-game stretch came vs. defensively-challenged Memphis. That game still only snuck above the number though and the Cavs held the Grizzlies to only 89 points. The other six games had an average combined score of exactly 180 points with all six falling below the number by a minimum of nine points. The most recent game here saw just 168 combined points scored (88-80 win vs. Portland) and stayed below the total by roughly 20 points. I look for this evening's final score to be lower than expected once again. *Blue Chip

KNICKS
Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Game Time: 3/16/2008 6:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Knicks Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW YORK. All games are really important for the Hawks, as they're right in the middle of the playoff race. However, while they've been solid at home, the Hawks have been terrible on the road. That being said, I don't believe that they should be laying points away from Atlanta, not even against the 'lowly' Knicks. Indeed, Atlanta has lost six straight road games. All six losses came by a minimum of six points and the last five all came by double-digits. Looking back further and we find them at 1-13 their last 14 on the road and 2-19 their last 21. They've also lost 13 of their last 14 visits to New York, including each of their last three. The Knicks lost but covered at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago. They followed that up with losses against several top tier teams (Hornets, Cavs, Pistons, Blazers, Mavs) before stepping down in class and beating Miami in their most recent game. That victory gives them some much needed confidence and I expect it to boost their overall morale. This is another winnable game and I expect the positive momentum to carry over from the Miami victory. After leading New York to that win, Jamal Crawford stated: "We're not going to the playoffs, but we?re going to try to finish strong." With a chance to do some "spoiling," look for Crawford and co. to step up with a huge effort, improving to 7-1 ATS the last eight times they were a host in this series. *Best Bet

 

[Spud82]

Chicago Sports Connection

Wisc. -7

 

[Spud82]

Russ Culver

515) Clemson +5 1/2
517) Georgia +7 1/2
520) Texas +6
521) Illinois +7

 

[the duke]

Sebastian


300 Texas
20 Georgia
20 Wisconsin

20 Pistons
20 Knicks
20 Clevland under

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness


REASON FOR PICK: Things were much different for the Raptors when they beat the Kings on Jan 16 in Toronto, 116-91. Chris Bosh (22.6-8.9) was healthy and scored 31 points in that victory, making 11 of his 12 FG attempts. Toronto actually had a winning road record at the end of February at 14-13 but is just 1-5 to open the month of March, going 2-4 ATS, as the five losses have come by an average of 15.8 PPG. Bosh has missed the last eight games with a knee injury and Toronto has not been able to overcome his absence, going 2-6 SU and ATS in that span. While 6-8 rookie Moon (8.5-6.1) has had a surprisingly good rookie year and the 6-9 Humphries (5.8--3.8) his having the most productive season of his four-year career, they are complimentary players. TJ Ford (12.3-5.9 APG) has typically played in just 34 of 65 games but he is healthy now. Calderon (12.2-8.5 APG) has also played well at the point, making wing players Parker (12.7-4.0), Delfino (9.6-4.6) and Kapono (7.6) even more dangerous. However, the bottom line is, the Raptors are NOT the Raptors without Bosh. The Kings are better than their record but are buried in the much more talented West. Salmons (12.9-4.0), PG Udrih (12.9-3.4-4.4) and the 6-7 Garcia (11.6) have all shown that they are solid NBA players with added playing time this year due to injuries and then the Bibby trade. The 7-0 Moore had a career-season in New Jersey last year (9.8-05.1) and has almost duplicated those numbers this year (8.0-6.1). I'm not forgetting Martin (22.6-4.6), who is now a PROVEN scorer in this league, the always troubled but VERY talented Artest (20.0-5.7-3.6) or the underrated Miller (13.9-9.4). Getting back to that East vs West theme, let's note that the Kings are 1-10 vs Pacific Davison foes and are 13-24 vs the West, overall. That leaves them 16-12 vs East opponents, a winning percentage of .571 that would make them a solid playoff contender if in that conference. The Raptors have lost NINE straight visits to Sacramento and what makes anyone think they can break that losing streak here, without Bosh? I sure don't think so.

Weekend Wipeout Winner
Sac Kings (7.5*)

 

[the duke]

Michael Cannon


15 Dime ?

CLEMSON

Take the points with Clemson this afternoon over North Carolina in the ACC Championship game.

Clemson has a tendency to play the big boys of the conference tough. They knocked off Duke yesterday and have played North Carolina tight in both previous meetings this season.

Both of those games went to overtime before Carolina prevailed each time, but Clemson knows they are that close to knocking off the No. 1-ranked team in the nation.

The Tarheels have won 10 straight, but they are only 4-6 ATS in that span, including just 1-4 ATS in their last five.

Clemson is 7-2 SU in its last nine games, going 6-3 ATS.

North Carolina has failed to cover in five of its last seven conference tournament games and is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 ACC tournament games.

Clemson is on a 5-1 ATS run in its last six tournament games.

The Tigers have serious revenge motive going for them today and I see them hanging with the Tarheels until the end.

Take the points with Clemson as they keep it within the number.

5 Dime ?

GEORGIA

Take the points with Georgia this afternoon over Arkansas as they continue their improbable run to the SEC Championship game.

I know Georgia is going to be running on fumes, if they can even run, after the day-night doubleheader they were forced to play yesterday.

But that won?t matter because the adrenaline is going to keep them within the number.

You can talk about fatigue all you want, but sometimes heart trumps that and Georgia certainly qualifies today.

This is their only chance at getting into the NCAA tournament, so don?t think they?re going to lament their situation today.

Arkansas is coming off an upset win over top-seeded Tennessee, so forgive them if they think the SEC title is theirs because of who they are playing now. It?s only natural for a team like Arkansas to take Georgia a bit too light after knocking off a team that had a chance at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog, and underdogs are 8-1 ATS in non-pick-em games in this year?s SEC tournament.

Arkansas is just 2-5 SUATS in its last seven games away from Fayetteville.

Take the points with Georgia as the Razorbacks win the SEC Championship, but the Bulldogs grab the cash.

ILLINOIS

Take the points with Illinois over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game.

This isn?t quite David vs. Goliath, but it?s pretty close.

Illinois comes into the championship game with a losing record and will have to knock off the 8th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers to grab the title.

Wisconsin pulled off a great comeback in yesterday?s win over Michigan State, but that may have taken a bit too much out of them for them to cover today?s game.

The Badgers set college basketball back about 50 years with the way they play, but you can?t argue their success.

It?s just that success hasn?t translated into cash for their backers.

Wisconsin is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last four postseason games, including last year?s 66-49 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game.

Illinois is 6-2 SU in neutral-site games this year, going 5-3 ATS.

The Illini has won four Big Ten games in a row after failing to win consecutive conference games all season. They are also 4-2 ATS in their last six games.

Take the points with Illinois as they scrap with Wisconsin and keep the game within the number.

BOBCATS

Take the points with the Bobcats tonight when they battle the Cavaliers in Cleveland.

Charlotte has played Cleveland tough, winning 96-93 at home back in December, and losing 113-106 in overtime at Cleveland in January.

The Bobcats have Gerald Wallace back in the lineup and having their best player back will go a long way towards covering tonight.

The Cavs have been sloppy in losing their last two games. They haven?t protected the basketball and I look for that trend to continue today.

That?s because Charlotte has forced Cleveland to commit 50 turnovers combined in the two previous meetings this season.

The Bobcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two.

Take the points with Charlotte as they stay within the number tonight on the road.

 

[to1]

TO1: ANY WOLKOSKY YET??? HAS TO GET HOT EVENTUALLY!!!!

Wolkosky Milan

513-416-18 last one hundred ninety days
181-144-5 last seventy two days
1-2 Yesterday

Today:

10* NOH/DET OVER 184?
10* LAL/HOU UNDER 197
10* CHA/CLE OVER 196

 

[the duke]

PPP

NBA

3% Heat
3% Hornets

4% Wisc
3% NC
3% Ark




Bob Balfe

NBA Basketball
Bobcats +7.5 over Cavs

College Basketball
UNC -6 over Clemson




Savannah Sports
3 Units on Clemson Over 154.5




Winners Edge

Nba:

Ny Knicks + 1.5 , 2 Units
Sac Kings -5 , 2 Unit


Cbb:
Texas + 5.5 , 2 Units
North Carolina -5 , 2 Units
Arkansas -7 , 1 Unit




KeithMartin comps

Under 149.5 Northwestern State
Over 112.5 Wisconsin

 

[the duke]

Executive

400% North Carolina

free play Wisconsin

 

[the duke]

Alatex

Texas

 

[the duke]

Stu Feiner

10,000 Dime Lock of the Year #3


10,000 Dime Total Lock of the Year #3

Over the posted total (Kansas/Texas)

Three 2000 Dime Bonus Locks

Texas +5.5 over Kansas
Wisconsin -6.5 over Illinois
UNC -5.5 over Clemson

The over has hit in eight of 11 between the Jayhawks and Longhorns as they will battle today for the Big 12 title. The over is 8-3 in the Jayhawks last 11 against a team with a winning record and is 12-5 in their last 17 games following a win. They scored 77 in the win over A&M on Saturday. As for the Longhorns, they put up the same amount, 77, on Oklahoma on Saturday in a blowout win. The over is 6-0-1 in their last seven neutral site games as an underdog and is 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a winning record. Both teams have major firepower and I completely expect this game to be high tempo, fast pace, up and down the court. This one goes way over the number.

 

[the duke]

Wunderdog


NCAAB


Game: Clemson vs. North Carolina (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 154.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

These teams have played very competitive against each other with both games going to OT. These games saw 196 and 178 points scored, but more importantly 164 and 162 before OT. The Tar Heels are putting up about 90 per game and the Tigers about 80. Both these teams give it up on the other end, with the Heels allowing 72.5 and the Tigers nearly 70. This one should be played in the 80s, and fun to watch, especially if your on the OVER.


Game: Texas Arlington vs. Northwestern State (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Northwestern State +165 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3.3)

The least interesting matchup of the day takes place in the Southwestern Conference Championship game in Katy, Texas. But we are interested. This game features a #5 seed and a #7 seed so anything can happen. The winner gets a bid to the Big Dance so a lot is on the line for these small schools. But it means more to Texas Arlington as this would be their first invititation. Northwestern State if you recall won this tournament last year and actually beat Iowa in the opening round of the NCAAs. UT-Arlington is shooting for a school record 21st win and we think they get it. They are 20-11 on the season while Northwestern State is just 15-17. The offenses are very similar while UTA owns the better defense (68 ppg allowed vs. 79.4 for NWS). We like the dog here to win outright.



Game: Kansas vs. Texas (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Texas +5.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

There is a big opportunity here for both these teams. Tennessee and Georgetown lost, so there is no arguement that the winner will be granted a #1 seed in tourney. The Horns proved they can play with Jayhawks, with solid regular season win. They took it right at the Jayhawks, got them in foul trouble, and converted FT's dispite shooting just 40% from the floor. They ruled the glass, and dominated the paint, blocking eight Kansas shots. After a 20-0 start, things haven't been quite so easy for the Jayhawks as they have lost three, and gone just 4-9 ATS. Texas has a chance for the out-right win here, so the points sweeten the value.



Game: Georgia vs. Arkansas (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Georgia +300 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 6)

Sometimes teams just defy the odds to win games and win tournaments. Georgia right now is that team. After suffering damage to the Georgia Dome, the Bulldogs were faced with the unheard of task of playing two tournament games in one day yesterday. They disposed of Kentucky and then top-seeded Ole Miss. Why can't they win this one? They are tired? That didn't show in knocking off the #1 seed in their second game yesterday. Yes, we know they only won four SEC games all season, but they have just won three in a row as underdogs of 3.5, 4.5 and 10 points. The Bulldogs have the best defense in this game as Arkansas has allowed 76.8 per game over their last five. Dennis Felton is now 14-5 in conference tournament games and we'll ride him and the magic ride the Bulldogs are on to another win here.



NBA


Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Houston (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Houston -3.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 197.5 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Houston has run off an amazing 21 straight wins, and not a single opponent in their last 19 has scored over 100 points. In those most recent 19 games, the Rockets are allowing just 86.4 ppg. The last nine meetings between these teams (not including OT), has seen the highest scoring game posted at 196, with an average of 180.3 ppg. The Lakers are a completely different team when they can't score. They are 43-6 SU when they score 100+, but a pathetic 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS when they score under 100. The Lakers have yet to score 100 this season against the NBA's top four defensive teams in terms of points allowed. They got 89 at Detroit, 94 at Boston, 92 and 91 at San Antonio and 93 here in Houston. They are without Pau Gasol tonight too which is a major blow. Home teams that have allowed 80 or fewer points in three straight games are 22-4 ATS the past five season. Houston is 20-11 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 9-1 in their last ten. They are also 20-11 UNDER vs. these teams. We like the hot Rockets to win a game that also goes UNDER the total.



Game: Dallas at Miami (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Dallas -16 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Dallas hasn't been great on the road this season but Miami has been worse at home. They are 6-27 now at home this season after losing to Orlando on Friday. They have lost five straight at home and are injury-riddled with Marcus Banks out, Udonis Haslem and Earl Barron doubtful and Shawn Marion and Jason Williams probable but not 100%. Dallas is on a roll having won four straight by an average score of 113-90! Big spread but Dallas is clicking on all cylinders right now and Miami is as bad, and beat up, as it gets.



Game: Seattle at Denver (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Denver -15.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Yesterday we backed Boston after their embarrassing loss at home to Utah. They responded after underperforming in such a big way in their last game. In this game we'll go with another of our theories - backing teams off a huge OVERperformance. Denver is off a 137-105 thrashing of Toronto. They covered the 8.5 point spread and with 23.5 points to spare. Now they get the lowly Seattle Supersonics and this game will be no contest. The Nuggets are motivated as they remain 1.5 games behind Golden State for the final playoff spot in the West. Earlier this season Denver beat Seattle 138-106 for their highest point total of the season. They have beaten the Sonics, the worst team in the West, by double-digits three straight times. Seattle gives up 106.5 per game on the road and it's getting worse down the stretch. Over their last five games they have allowed 115.4 per game. With Denver averaging nearly that on offense, watch out for the fireworks here. Denver is 24=11 ATS the past three seasons after a blowout win by 15+ points. PJ Carlesimo-coached teams are 2-14 ATS after allowing 120+ in their last game. Yes, huge spread. But we think Denver covers it.

 

[the duke]

BEN BURNS

NHL


UNDER Flyers/Penguins

Game: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Game Time: 3/16/2008 3:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Flyers and Penguins to finish UNDER the total. The Penguins erupted for seven goals in their last game. However, they'd scored two or less in two of their previous three games and it's also worth noting that they've seen the UNDER go 13-9 when coming off a win by two goals or more and a profitable 16-11 after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. The Flyers lost 3-2 vs. Boston yesterday. That brought the UNDER to 4-1 their last five games and 9-4 their last 13. The last time that they played the second of back to back games (3/12 vs. Toronto) they lost by an identical 3-2 score. For the season, the UNDER is a profitable 10-5-1 when they've played a road game with an over/under line of six or greater. I feel that the number is generous and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this afternoon.

Total of the Week
UNDER Flyers/Penguins

 

[the duke]

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
North Carolina (-5) over Clemson
16-Mar-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Clemson is coming off an upset win over Duke, their first over the Blue Devils in 23 games, and the Tigers won big in their first ACC tourney game. The Tigers are just 3-10 ATS after an upset win and 3- 13 ATS after consecutive wins and covers (1-6 ATS this season) in 5 seasons under coach Oliver Purnell. The Tigers apply to a 15-50 ATS conference tournament situation while North Carolina applies to a very strong 51-9 ATS championship game situation. My ratings favor UNC by 5 ? points, so the line is fair, and I?ll take North Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 ? or less and for 2-Stars at - 6.
3-Stars at -5 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -6.

3 Star Selection
Texas (+6) over Kansas
16-Mar-08 12:00 PM Pacific Time
Texas plays their best against the best teams while Kansas doesn?t play as well against good teams while blowing out bad teams. The Longhorns beat Kansas 72-69 at home in their only meeting this season and they also beat Tennessee by 19 points on a neutral court and beat UCLA in Pauley Pavilion. Texas is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season and the Horns are 20-9 ATS as an underdog against conference foes the last 7 seasons. Texas applies to a very good 139- 51-4 ATS situation that is 62-19-2 ATS in championship games, including 3-0 yesterday with Temple, Kent State, and Fullerton State. I get Kansas by 6 points using all games this season for each team, but I get Jayhawks by only 3 ? points using only games played against quality teams. If I only use Texas? 15 games against NCAA Tournament caliber teams against Kansas? 10 games against NCAA tourney caliber teams I actually would favor Texas by 2 points. After factoring in how much better Texas plays against good teams I get a fair line of Kansas by 4 ? points. I?ll take Texas in a 3- Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 2-Stars at +4 points.
3-Stars at +5 or more, 2-Stars at +4 1/2 or +4 points.

3 Star Selection
Wisconsin (-7) over Illinois
16-Mar-08 12:30 PM Pacific Time
Illinois lost by 10 points and by 14 points in two regular season games against Wisconsin and I don?t see the Illini coming close to winning this game either. Contrary to what announcers say, it is not tough to beat a team 3 times in one season and Illinois actually applies to a negative 27-75-5 ATS situation that is based on losing both earlier meetings. Wisconsin, meanwhile, applies to a 139-51-4 ATS situation that is 62-19-2 ATS in championship games and went 3-0 for me in Best Bets yesterday. Wisconsin G Trevon Hughes was injured yesterday and is questionable for this game, but the Badgers aren?t likely to miss his horrible 39% shooting and they won straight up at Texas in the only other game that Hughes missed this season. My ratings favor the Badgers by 7 points and I?ll take Wisconsin in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 ? points.
3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars at -7 1/2

 

[the duke]

Paul Leiner

200* NC -5.5

50* Over LA/Houston

Free Over 136 Tex/ Kansas

 

[the duke]

Marc Lawrence

UNC




Stan Sharp

double dime big bet

Kansas


3 G Sports

5 wiscon
4 kansas
4 lakers



Iceman

5* calgary



SPORTS UNLIMITED

5 North Carolina



JB

Miami Heat

 

[the duke]

Sports Bank

500* Kansas

 

[Slick Nick]

mike neri anyone