BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
MICHIGAN
Game: Purdue vs. Michigan Game Time: 3/9/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: Michigan Reason: I'm taking the points with MICHIGAN. Purdue has obviously had the much better season. However, I feel that the Wolverines are going to be the "hungrier" team, as this game means more to them. Yes, the Boilermakers can still technically improve their tournament seeding. However, even if they win today, they'd also need Penn State to beat Indiana. The Boilermakers know that's fairly unlikely though, as the Hoosiers are -8.5 point favorites and are 14-3 in conference play (25-5 overall) while the Nittany Lions are just 6-11 in league play and below 500 overall. Instead of thinking that they might have a chance at the second seed, I expect the young Boilermakers to be thinking about how they blew their opportunity to win the conference and resign themselves to the fact that they'll have the third seed in the Big Ten tournament. Off a tough loss and with far bigger and more important games on deck, it will be easy to get caught looking past lowly Michigan. Conversely, this is a big game for the Wolverines. Not only are they playing their home finale but they're looking to avenge a loss at Purdue and build momentum for the tournament. With a nationally ranked team coming to town, I expect coach Beilein to have his team extremely fired up. As Beilein had to say: "We're not going to let us take any spirit away from us. We're making great progress. We've got a nationally ranked coming to our place. We'll see if that can get our momentum back." The Wolverines, also a young team, have improved as they've gotten to know Beilein's system. They've now won three of their last four games here, including wins over Illinois and Ohio State, and the lone loss came by just two points. The Wolverines covered the earlier meeting at Purdue and they pounded the Boilermakers here last season. Look for them to close out the regular season with a huge effort, improving to 8-4 ATS when coming off a conference loss. *Main Event
UNDER CINCINNATI/UCONN
Game: Cincinnati vs. Connecticut Game Time: 3/9/2008 6:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Cincinnati and UConn to finish UNDER the total. I was all set to play these teams "under" yesterday but a winter snowstorm postponed the game until today. My reasons for liking the game remain the same. The Huskies allowed a whopping 83 points when they played at Cincinnati back on 1/23. That prompted the Huskies to elevate their defensive play in subsequent games. After the narrow win at Cincinnati, the Huskies traveled to Indiana and held the Hoosiers to only 63 points. That marked the first of five straight games they played which fell UNDER the number with none of those five opponents reaching 70 points. In fact, no opponent since Cincinnati had reached the 80 point mark until Providence did so on Thursday. Off that poor defensive effort, I expect the Huskies to once again bounce back with another huge defensive effort today. Note that the UNDER is 9-4 the past three seasons after the Huskies had allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. During the same stretch the UNDER has also gone 11-5 when the Huskies have been listed as home favorites of a dozen or more points. The Huskies are allowing 64 points per game at home on the season but I expect them to hold Cincinnati to even less than that here, as the Bearcats managed a mere 54 vs. Depaul last time out and are averaging just 60.8 points their past six games. Note that the Bearcats managed 59 points when they traveled here in 2006, losing 70-59. Look for another low-scoring affair here with the UNDER improving to 4-1 when the Bearcats were road dogs of greater than 12 points. *total of the year
NBA BASKETBALL
UNDER RAPTORS/SONICS
Game: Seattle SuperSonics vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 3/9/2008 1:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Raptors and Sonics to finish UNDER the number. Early Sunday afternoon games in the Eastern time zone often don't sit too well with teams which are accustomed to playing on the West Coast. According to the players' "body-clocks," it's still only 10:00, instead of 1:00pm. Today's even worse than normal in that respect as there's an additional "lost" hour, due to daylight savings time. Playing such an early game, I won't be surprised if the Seattle offense is a bit "sleepy" out of the gate this afternoon. Unlike most teams, the Raptors play a lot of these early Sunday games. Although their most recent one (Knicks on 2/24) finished above the number, the UNDER remains a profitable 6-2 in their eight Sunday afternoon home games overall. The Raptors saw their most recent game finish above the number. That game was on pace to stay below the total after three quarters though (or at least to be very close) but the Raptors fell behind and were forced to rally for a tie, causing a high-scoring fourth quarter and then more points in overtime. The Raptors had seen their previous two games both fall below the number though and they held Miami to just 83 points before facing Washington. Note that with the Raptors listed as a double-digit favorite, its unlikely that we'll be seeing another overtime game. The Sonics managed only 83 points in their last game but gave up a whopping 118. They've seen the UNDER go 18-10 this season after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game though and I expect them to bounce back with a much better defensive effort here. They've also seen the UNDER go 4-2 when playing a road game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. Additionally, the Sonics have seen the UNDER go 5-2 when listed as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range on the season and 14-8 in that role the past three seasons. Overall, the UNDER is 10-5 the last 15 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points. With today's number roughly a touchdown higher than it was for the earlier meeting in Seattle, I feel that we're getting excellent value. *Annihilator
SUNS
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns Game Time: 3/9/2008 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Phoenix Suns Reason: I'm playing on PHOENIX. There are a couple major reasons why the betting public is going to largely favor the Spurs in this matchup. For starters, the defending champs just saw their 11-game winning streak snapped with a loss at Denver and the popular opinion will be that they'll immediately bounce back from that loss. Additionally, the general feeling is that the Suns can't win now that they've got Shaq in the lineup. I disagree on both counts. The Spurs have struggled on the road all season, going just 12-18 ATS. They've also got a "revenge" game vs. the Nuggets, the team that just snapped their streak, on deck for tomorrow night. Note that the Spurs are just 4-10 ATS the last 14 times that they played the front-end of back to back games. As for the part about the Suns not being able to win with Shaq, I just don't believe that to be true. Yes, they have struggled of late. However, that will only serve as further motivation this afternoon. What better way to silence the critics then to defeat the defending champs on national television. The Suns, who lost outright as -5.5 point favorites on Friday, are 14-2 SU the last 16 times they were coming off a SU loss when they'd been listed as a favorite. Look for them to build on those stats this afternoon, improving to 7-1 on Sundays this season and covering the small number along the way. *Contrarian GOM
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
MICHIGAN
Game: Purdue vs. Michigan Game Time: 3/9/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: Michigan Reason: I'm taking the points with MICHIGAN. Purdue has obviously had the much better season. However, I feel that the Wolverines are going to be the "hungrier" team, as this game means more to them. Yes, the Boilermakers can still technically improve their tournament seeding. However, even if they win today, they'd also need Penn State to beat Indiana. The Boilermakers know that's fairly unlikely though, as the Hoosiers are -8.5 point favorites and are 14-3 in conference play (25-5 overall) while the Nittany Lions are just 6-11 in league play and below 500 overall. Instead of thinking that they might have a chance at the second seed, I expect the young Boilermakers to be thinking about how they blew their opportunity to win the conference and resign themselves to the fact that they'll have the third seed in the Big Ten tournament. Off a tough loss and with far bigger and more important games on deck, it will be easy to get caught looking past lowly Michigan. Conversely, this is a big game for the Wolverines. Not only are they playing their home finale but they're looking to avenge a loss at Purdue and build momentum for the tournament. With a nationally ranked team coming to town, I expect coach Beilein to have his team extremely fired up. As Beilein had to say: "We're not going to let us take any spirit away from us. We're making great progress. We've got a nationally ranked coming to our place. We'll see if that can get our momentum back." The Wolverines, also a young team, have improved as they've gotten to know Beilein's system. They've now won three of their last four games here, including wins over Illinois and Ohio State, and the lone loss came by just two points. The Wolverines covered the earlier meeting at Purdue and they pounded the Boilermakers here last season. Look for them to close out the regular season with a huge effort, improving to 8-4 ATS when coming off a conference loss. *Main Event
UNDER CINCINNATI/UCONN
Game: Cincinnati vs. Connecticut Game Time: 3/9/2008 6:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Cincinnati and UConn to finish UNDER the total. I was all set to play these teams "under" yesterday but a winter snowstorm postponed the game until today. My reasons for liking the game remain the same. The Huskies allowed a whopping 83 points when they played at Cincinnati back on 1/23. That prompted the Huskies to elevate their defensive play in subsequent games. After the narrow win at Cincinnati, the Huskies traveled to Indiana and held the Hoosiers to only 63 points. That marked the first of five straight games they played which fell UNDER the number with none of those five opponents reaching 70 points. In fact, no opponent since Cincinnati had reached the 80 point mark until Providence did so on Thursday. Off that poor defensive effort, I expect the Huskies to once again bounce back with another huge defensive effort today. Note that the UNDER is 9-4 the past three seasons after the Huskies had allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. During the same stretch the UNDER has also gone 11-5 when the Huskies have been listed as home favorites of a dozen or more points. The Huskies are allowing 64 points per game at home on the season but I expect them to hold Cincinnati to even less than that here, as the Bearcats managed a mere 54 vs. Depaul last time out and are averaging just 60.8 points their past six games. Note that the Bearcats managed 59 points when they traveled here in 2006, losing 70-59. Look for another low-scoring affair here with the UNDER improving to 4-1 when the Bearcats were road dogs of greater than 12 points. *total of the year
NBA BASKETBALL
UNDER RAPTORS/SONICS
Game: Seattle SuperSonics vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 3/9/2008 1:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Raptors and Sonics to finish UNDER the number. Early Sunday afternoon games in the Eastern time zone often don't sit too well with teams which are accustomed to playing on the West Coast. According to the players' "body-clocks," it's still only 10:00, instead of 1:00pm. Today's even worse than normal in that respect as there's an additional "lost" hour, due to daylight savings time. Playing such an early game, I won't be surprised if the Seattle offense is a bit "sleepy" out of the gate this afternoon. Unlike most teams, the Raptors play a lot of these early Sunday games. Although their most recent one (Knicks on 2/24) finished above the number, the UNDER remains a profitable 6-2 in their eight Sunday afternoon home games overall. The Raptors saw their most recent game finish above the number. That game was on pace to stay below the total after three quarters though (or at least to be very close) but the Raptors fell behind and were forced to rally for a tie, causing a high-scoring fourth quarter and then more points in overtime. The Raptors had seen their previous two games both fall below the number though and they held Miami to just 83 points before facing Washington. Note that with the Raptors listed as a double-digit favorite, its unlikely that we'll be seeing another overtime game. The Sonics managed only 83 points in their last game but gave up a whopping 118. They've seen the UNDER go 18-10 this season after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game though and I expect them to bounce back with a much better defensive effort here. They've also seen the UNDER go 4-2 when playing a road game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. Additionally, the Sonics have seen the UNDER go 5-2 when listed as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range on the season and 14-8 in that role the past three seasons. Overall, the UNDER is 10-5 the last 15 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points. With today's number roughly a touchdown higher than it was for the earlier meeting in Seattle, I feel that we're getting excellent value. *Annihilator
SUNS
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns Game Time: 3/9/2008 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Phoenix Suns Reason: I'm playing on PHOENIX. There are a couple major reasons why the betting public is going to largely favor the Spurs in this matchup. For starters, the defending champs just saw their 11-game winning streak snapped with a loss at Denver and the popular opinion will be that they'll immediately bounce back from that loss. Additionally, the general feeling is that the Suns can't win now that they've got Shaq in the lineup. I disagree on both counts. The Spurs have struggled on the road all season, going just 12-18 ATS. They've also got a "revenge" game vs. the Nuggets, the team that just snapped their streak, on deck for tomorrow night. Note that the Spurs are just 4-10 ATS the last 14 times that they played the front-end of back to back games. As for the part about the Suns not being able to win with Shaq, I just don't believe that to be true. Yes, they have struggled of late. However, that will only serve as further motivation this afternoon. What better way to silence the critics then to defeat the defending champs on national television. The Suns, who lost outright as -5.5 point favorites on Friday, are 14-2 SU the last 16 times they were coming off a SU loss when they'd been listed as a favorite. Look for them to build on those stats this afternoon, improving to 7-1 on Sundays this season and covering the small number along the way. *Contrarian GOM
