Sunday, September 5th, 2008
Jets (-3 ?115) over @Dolphins
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
I have played contrarian in the NFL for a long time.
I used to do very well by going against the public,
but the last couple of season that strategy has not
done so well. There simply has not been as much
parity in the NFL lately with some really good teams,
and some really bad ones. It also seems that the
NFL line is made to combat the so-called ?sharps?
instead of the ?squares? nowadays, at least more so
than any other sport. Now I know every square in
the world will be on my side here with the Brett
Favre-led Jets, but you know what?If ya can?t beat
?em, join ?em! I had New York pegged for
improvement this season before the Favre
acquisition based on an upgrade at offensive line
(second most important position on the field), and a
nice draft. Favre, of course, is a big upgrade, as he
can certainly still play. He has weapons to work
with, and a nice mix of veterans and young talent on
the offensive line to protect him and provide a
running game. He also has brought even more
energy to a team and a coach that never seem to
lack it, even during last year?s tough times.
Miami, on the other hand, is breaking in a lot of new
faces on both sides of the ball. Bill Parcells is in
charge of the personnel here, and the only way to
go is up off of last season?s 1-15 record. I expect
the learning curve to be a bit steep early on for all of
the youngsters, and while they may have a nice
running game with the Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown
combo, there just does not seem to be any other
positives. They will be playing defense without
Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas for the first time in a
while, and one has to wonder where the leadership
will come from. All 3 units on that side of the ball
are below average. They have won only 3 division
games the last 3 seasons, and only 1 of the last 8
matchups against these Jets (0-7-1 ATS). New York
whipped Miami on this field late last season 40-13,
and the Dolphins have only covered 1 home game
against New York in their last 10 tries.
The Jets are the much safer play here, and laying a
field goal at ?115 is most likely much cheaper than
you will see on game day, as the public will probably
push this up. Just because our side may be the
popular side does not make it the wrong side, and
we can certainly bet it like a sharp laying as little
juice as possible on a very important number. NY
Jets by 7.
@New England (-16?) over Kansas City
Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare
It has become common handicapping wisdom to
fade the previous season's Super Bowl loser. That
would be the Patriots, who lost to the Giants 17-16
this past February. The betting public seems to
disagree, pushing this line up from the opener of -
14.5. This time I'll side with the public. Down the
stretch in 2007 the Patriots got old quickly. After 10
games they had outscored their opposition by a
mind-boggling 260 points. Outscoring your
opponents by that much over an entire season is
enough to make your mark in NFL history, let alone
ten games. But the team sputtered down the
stretch. In the Super Bowl the defense looked old
and slow. So Job One for New England in the
offseason was to get younger and more athletic on
defense. The 2008 defense will sport a rookie starter
at inside LB (Jerod Mayo), two rookies in the
defensive backfield - Terrence Wheatley (second
round) and Jonathan Wilhite (fourth round) and
2007 draft pick Brandon Meriweather.
In the Chiefs' camp there is no shortage of drama.
Much of it centers around Carl Peterson, who has
been the team's General Manager for 20 years. The
club is so rife with speculation that Peterson is on
the hot seat. Many within the organization have
chosen sides between the "Herm camp" and the
"Carl camp." That division stems from several
factors: reluctance on the part of the old guard led
by Peterson to commit to building the team through
the draft ? the preference of coach Herm Edwards
? rather than free agency, and the survival instincts
of those who believe that Peterson does not have
owner Clark Hunt's full support. After last season's
4-12 mark Peterson finally acceded to the youth
movement. If the Chiefs' projected 22 offensive and
defensive starters seven are rookies or second-year
players. Another five - including starting quarterback
Brodie Croyle - are in their third year. Kansas City is
likely to experience more pain this season, but with
an eye to future prospects.
On the technical front I have a pair of Game 1
systems. The first has a mark of 31-15 ATS and
plays against road teams that do not enter the
regular season on a preseason roll. My best play is a
17-7 ATS Game 1 system that has gone 7-3 ATS
since I uncovered it several years ago. It has a
cover margin over 7 points per game and simply
plays on teams that had winning marks the prior
season facing certain poor teams. The Pats apply to
a system that is 5-0 ATS with an average score of
37-15. That subsection includes a pair of plays on
teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous season.
Those Super Bowl losers won in this spot by a
combined 57 points. The Chiefs may get better this
season, but it will take some time. Lay the wood.
New England by 23. Note: Hurricane Hanna could
possibly influence this game.
Texans (+6?) over @Steelers
Selection and analysis by Kevin O?Neill
How?s the selection of Mario Williams over Reggie
Bush looking now? Not bad at all. The Texans have
some good defensive talent, but Dunta Robinson will
be out until November (making it a full year) and
there?s not a lot of depth on that unit. This is a
situation worth monitoring, as it will become more
important as the year progresses. New England
castoff Roosevelt Colvin was cut, with his history of
injuries catching up with him. There are signs that
Houston is due to improve. They were ?13 in
turnovers last season, but their first team had none
in the preseason. They?ve got great receivers. QB
Matt Schaub is highly thought of, and this needs to
be his year to step up. The running game should
improve considerably with zone blocking guru Alex
Gibbs coming out of retirement to coach that unit.
Gibbs has had surprisingly quick success at other
places he?s been. Rookie RB Steve Slaton ran
behind a zone blocking scheme at West Virginia and
though he is only a situational back, don?t be
surprised if he has a bigger year than people expect.
And if I?m Gary Kubiak, I?m running some screens to
Slaton in this one. The Steelers gambling, blitzing
defense can be exploited by such plays, and Slaton?s
blazing speed may do some damage. Like the
Texans lack of defensive depth, the Steelers age on
their defensive line will be an issue not today, but
later in the season, as 6 of 7 Steelers D-linemen will
be 30+ by the end of September. Speaking of not
getting younger, Charlie Batch is likely headed to the
IR and locker room problem Byron Leftwich will be
the backup. Steelers had just an OK preseason, as
heralded rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall from Illinois
had ball security issues, fumbling twice against the
Vikings in the preseason. Their offensive line has
some question marks and the special teams are
shaky as well.
Week one is always tough to call, but we have the
Texans, winners of 3 of their last 4 to finish 8-8 last
year, as a team ready move ahead a bit more this
season under their sharp third year coach. And we
have the Steelers age starting to catch up to them
just a little bit. We?ll take the points with a team on
our ?possibly underrated? list against a club on our
?possibly overrated? list. Steelers by only 3.
Note: Hurricane Hanna could possibly influence this
game.
Lions @Falcons under 41
Selection and analysis by Kevin O?Neill
The Falcons have a good running back in Michael
Turner, and a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan.
Looking at their resumes, the offensive line is as
unimpressive as any in the league. Left offensive
tackle Sam Baker is a rookie out of USC. G Justin
Blaylock was ineffective when injuries pressed him
into duty his rookie season. G Harvey Dahl has
played in five games in his career. And these guys
are all starters. Ryan was interception-prone in
college. It stands to reason that we?ll be looking at
a steady dose of the running game. And not only
does it stand to reason, but if new Falcons coach
Mike Smith learned anything from Jack Del Rio in
Jacksonville, it was to run the ball, slow down the
game and play defense. That defense should be
better than the sum of its parts, and that projection
is based on the head coach being a defensive guy
who appears to be trying to turn the Falcons into
something resembling the Jaguars.
The Lions coach Rod Marinelli, is also a defensive
guy. And his final roster cutdowns make that
obvious. Incredibly, the Lions have 11 defensive
lineman on their roster. Clearly rotating in fresh
bodies will be a priority, and energetic defenders will
be And the Lions no longer are being led offensively
by the aerial circus ringmaster Mike Martz. Instead
look for them to run the ball. Last season Detroit
ran the ball 20 times per game. In the preseason
this year they ran the ball 31 times per game.
Granted it was only the preseason, and the team
went 4-0 so they were protecting the lead at times,
but there?s no question that there will be a bigger
focus on running the football in Detroit. With the
ball on the ground the clock will be running more
frequently.
So we have two teams led by defensive-minded
coaches who are trying to change a culture and
instill toughness, hard-nosed defense, and ball
control offense. Both offenses are learning new
systems, and along with a lot of running, are
unlikely to be at peak efficiency from the get go.
This number seems a bit high when you consider
the current realities of these teams. Go under the
total.
@Eagles (- 7?) over Rams
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
The Philadelphia Eagles fit the bill as the best teamnot to make the playoffs in 2007. They went only 8- 8, but five of those losses came by 4 points or less.
So expect a bounce back season and a return trip in 2008. Head coach Andy Reid was in a difficult situation heading into last year as he was dealing
with his sons? legal troubles. And got to believe that had an effect on his overall coaching duties, but with that hopefully behind him, Reid can now devote
his full attention to the Eagles. They ended the season on a positive note by winning their last 3 games by a combined 65-38, and that momentum
will carry over and have the Eagles primed for a good effort in their opener. Philly should be much more consistent on offense
with Donovan McNabb back to full-strength, and he?s quite confident as well: "I felt good this preseason," McNabb said. "I've approached this
preseason differently because of my health. And because of my off-season training, I look forward to having a great season." And having his mobility
back is a major aid to his success because he adds another weapon to the Eagles running game. Philadelphia also upgraded their secondary by inking
shutdown cornerback Asante Samuel who will make a huge impact on the overall defense. The Rams hit rock bottom in 2007, going just 3-13
while scoring only 16 points per game. This team is a complete and utter mess heading into 2008. They have so many shortcomings on the offensive and defensive lines that they are bound to get manhandled at the line of scrimmage. And not only is the player personnel in a state of flux, but also the coaching staff. The Rams have six new coaches on board; the result of a desperation move by head coach Scott Linehan as he finds himself on the proverbial hot seat. NFC West teams struggle when traveling East, and it should be noted that St Louis went 0-3 straight-up and against the spread in this situation last year. They lost those games by a combined score of 65-16 for an average loss of 16.3 points per game. St Louis has their hands full here, and it looks like they?ll start 2008 like they ended 2007, with a blowout loss. Eagles by 14
Panthers (+9) over @Chargers
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
It was a successful year for head coach Norv Turner after he guided the San Diego Chargers to 12 regular season wins and an upset win over the Colts
n the playoffs. But Turner does not rate high on my head coaching list. He went 58-82 in his seven prior years, which clearly shows he?s really not that good
of a coach. After opening the season at 1-3, the Chargers flipped the switch and they went 12-3 the rest of the way. San Diego crushed the spread by
covering 14 of 19 including their last nine straight. But even with the impressive numbers, the Chargers regressed on both sides of the ball, 42 yards on
offense and 21 yards on defense. They scored five points less per game while allowing one point less on defense. QB Philip Rivers enters 2008 with some
uncertainty after having surgery to repair his ACL. Tight-end Antonio Gates also went under the knife, repairing a major toe injury he suffered in the
playoffs. They also lost running back Michael Turner and fullback Lorenzo Neal, so the offense has some question marks which makes this line look a bit high,
especially out of the gate. John Fox is one heck of a coach, and if not for him, no way the Carolina Panthers win 7 games last year.
With 94-year old Vinny Testaverde at quarterback, and wide receiver Steve Smith missing games with Injury, the Panthers? offense was downright pathetic
for the better part of the year. They scored 17 points or less in 10 games and that type of nonproduction simply doesn?t cut it. Jake Delhomme is
healthy (at least on the surface) after having Tommy John surgery, and with second-year offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson calling the plays,
look for Carolina?s offense to increase their scoring significantly. The defense slipped a bit, but they were hampered by injuries and struggled from being
on the field too long. They?ll snap-back as well, and get back to their formidable form. Word out of camp is that the Panthers linebacking corps can
potentially be one of the best in the league. And if that is true, they may be able to force the Chargers to go to more of a passing attack here, which is
something we?d welcome with Rivers and Gates coming back from surgery. Carolina has been a ferocious dog under Fox going 31-15 to the number
when getting points, so we?ll grab the generous spot with a team who underachieved last year.
Chargers by only 3.
THE SPORTS MEMO
ERIN RYNNING
SEATTLE AT BUFFALO PK
Recommendation: Bills
The NFL season kicks off in Buffalo with an early wake-up call for the Seahawks.
The Bills certainly fit the label of an up and coming team in the ranks of the NFL after fighting their way to a 7-9 record in 2007. There were a couple games that slipped away from the Bills, including one-point heartbreaking
losses to Dallas and Denver. Finally, it looks as if this young team is making strides with experience and their defense is primed to take a big step forward. In the offseason, the Bills added Marcus Stroud to man the middle of what has been a porous run defense, while adding Kawika Mitchell
at linebacker. In addition, last year?s first round rookie Paul Posluszny is healthy after missing the bulk of last season. With the defense upgraded, the offense looking to make strides in the red zone and arguably the best special
teams in the NFL, the Bills are live when we ask them to win on their home turf. Meanwhile, Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who rarely played in the preseason, will lead a banged up offense to start the season. Look for the Bills to turn the tables and nail a victory in their home opener.
ROB VENO
HOUSTON AT PITTSBURGH -6.5
Recommendation: Over
There figures to be an overwhelming amount of firepower on the field in this one as each side has explosiveness that the defenses will have trouble stopping.
Houston?s woes on pass defense create a solid advantage for the Steelers,
who can exploit them with emerging deep threat Santonio Holmes and their strong group of receivers. The Texans will attempt to apply pressure with their defensive front led by sack artist DE Mario Williams but Pittsburgh has more than enough capability on the ground and in the quick passing game to keep them honest. For Houston, QB Matt Schaub?s accuracy should allow him to carve up a questionable Steelers secondary. The Texans? receiving corps, with home run hitting WR Andre Johnson and sure handed complement Kevin Walter, are dangerous threats as is TE Owen Daniels. Look for the ball to be moved through the air consistently all game long as neither side has the pass rush or secondary to prevent it. The Steelers seem to always open it up more offensively at home and expect Ben Roethlisberger to post solid numbers.
The Scoreboard changes rapidly in this one which is likely to total 50+.
MARTY OTTO
SEATTLE AT BUFFALO PK
Recommendation: Bills
The Seahawks are a team heading in the opposite direction of Buffalo with aging
veterans and a lame duck head coach. Fundamentally, I have a ton of question
marks for Seattle and at the forefront of those questions is the receiving corps. DJ Hackett was dealt in the offseason leaving Deion Branch (injured), Bobby Engram (injured) and Ben Obamanu (IR) as its main targets. Only Nate Burleson is healthy enough to make an impact and I?m not willing to bet on Burleson showing up in the clutch at all. The offensive line was no good last year and neither was the ground game and both areas leave me with more questions than answers even with the addition of TJ Duckett, Julius Jones and Justin Forsett. Buffalo?s defense looks much improved with the additions of Marcus Stroud and Kawika Mitchell to help the front seven lock down the run and the Bills? secondary, with so many high level draft picks and talent to burn, is finally healthy. Trent Edwards can manage a game, Marshawn Lynch can chew away the clock and Lee Evans can still be a gamebreaker. Throw in the best all around special teams in the NFL and Buffalo is the clear choice at home.
TEDDY COVERS
DETROIT -3 AT ATLANTA
Recommendation: Lions
Detroit is 8-48 SU on the road over the last seven seasons, including a 0-3 mark as road chalk. The Lions certainly aren?t a team that most bettors are interested in putting their money on as a road favorite in Week 1, giving us the value we need to pull the trigger here. This is a confident team once again, following their 4-0 preseason. Remember, the Lions started out the 2007 campaign with a 6-2 mark (including road wins at Oakland and Chicago) before their season collapsed. Both their offensive line and their defense have been upgraded, and with Mike Martz out of the picture, look for talented receivers Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams to flourish. Detroit has come out of the gate strong in each of Rod Marinelli?s previous two opening games. They?ll be facing a rebuilt Falcons
squad coming off a truly dismal 4-12 season, breaking in a new coach, new systems on both sides of the football, and a rookie quarterback making
his NFL debut. The Falcons are on a 4-16 ATS run as home underdogs dating
back to the Jim Mora Jr. era. Don?t expect that trend to end here ? these are two teams headed in opposite directions, making this price rather cheap.
FAIRWAY JAY
CINCINNATI -1 at BALTIMORE O/U 39
Perception - Two AFC North teams clash in week one and revenge-minded handicappers will note that the Ravens lost both contests to the Bengals last season. They?ll also point out the stronger Ravens? defense that ranked sixth in total yards allowed. The Bengals? defense has been poor and ranked in the bottom quartile of the league for five consecutive seasons. Cincinnati also suffered a number of injuries in the preseason, including WR Chad Johnson (shoulder) and QB Carson Palmer (broken nose). The talent rich Cincinnati offense was sub-par in the preseason, and there are perceived problems along the offensive line following their lackluster performances. Unproven running back Chris Perry takes over for Rudi Johnson (waived), but will that help the Bengals? first-team offense that failed to score a point in its last 10 preseason
possessions through games two and three?
Reality - The Ravens are entering the regular season with more questions than when they began training camp. This looks like a challenging season for new head coach John Harbaugh, who will likely endure some early struggles with a new offensive coordinator and system along with inexperienced quarterbacks. Baltimore was a three-point home underdog to Cincinnati last season, and they were beaten soundly, 21-7. In fact, the Ravens scored in the final two minutes to avoid the shutout while the Bengals had seven trips inside the red zone and settled for seven field goals. Cincinnati features far superior talent on offense with a huge mismatch at quarterback between Carson Palmer and either Troy Smith or rookie Joe Flacco. Smith has not practiced in a week due to illness, and neither quarterback is equipped or has the poise or presence to be an effective NFL quarterback just yet. Baltimore was a league worst 3-13 ATS and minus (-17) in turnover differential last season, and the Bengals are 29-4 SU under head coach Marvin Lewis when they win the turnover battle. Baltimore?s frequent blitzes could be burned badly, as they featured the league?s No. 30 pass defense last year and a scoring defense that was second-worst in the AFC in yards per point. All-Pro safety Ed Reed is out with a nerve injury in his neck, and the Ravens? defensive line is banged-up and thin. Baltimore?s perceived strength on defense is now a group of aging veterans that are not nearly as strong as recent editions. Cincinnati is a road favorite for a reason, and securing the win means a point spread cover.
