Sports Advisors
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Two AFC North rivals looking to put disappointing seasons behind them square off when the Ravens host the Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium.
Baltimore (5-11, 3-13 ATS in 2007) had a train wreck of a 2007 season, posting the league?s worst mark against the number. The Ravens have struggled for years at the quarterback position, most recently behind Kyle Boller, so they drafted Delaware?s Joe Flacco in the first round ? and with Boller going on injured reserve this week to end his season, Flacco will start against the Bengals.
The consistently stingy Baltimore defense was sixth in the league in yards allowed in 2007, but it came in 22nd in points allowed (24.0), and the offense was 24th in scoring at an anemic 16.8 ppg.
Cincinnati (7-9 SU and ATS) averaged 348 ypg last year (10th in the league) and 23.8 ppg (11th), but the defense finished 24th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed. QB Carson Palmer completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 4,131 yards with 26 TDs and 20 INTs, but the Bengals? running game was 24th in the league, averaging 3.7 yards per carry and less than 100 yards per game.
The Bengals have owned this rivalry lately, going 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven clashes, winning and covering both meetings last year. The favorite is on a 5-1 ATS run, and the Ravens are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 contests in Baltimore.
Baltimore is on ATS slides of 3-17 overall, 2-11 against the AFC, 1-5 in division play and 1-5 in its last six season openers. On the flip side, the Bengals are on pointspread runs of 8-1 in September and 4-1 against the AFC.
The under cashed in five of Cincy?s last six games in 2007 and is on a 4-0 run inside the division. For Baltimore, the under is 8-2 in its last 10 season openers and 8-3-3 in its last 14 September contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI and UNDER
N.Y. Jets at Miami
The Brett Favre era begins in earnest for the Jets when they travel to South Beach to open the season against the Dolphins, who are coming off a miserable one-win season.
New York (4-12, 6-9-1 ATS) wasn?t much better than Miami last year, finishing 26th in the league in total offense (294.7 ypg) and 25th in points (16.8 per game), which led the team?s decision to trade for Favre and release Chad Pennington. Favre, the all-time TD passing leader with 442, was sterling last year in leading the Packers to the NFC title game, completing 66.5 percent of his passes for 4,155 yards and 28 TDS (against 15 INTs) in the regular season.
The Dolphins (1-15 SU, 5-9-2 ATS) were 26th in points (16.7) and yards (267) per game last season, prompting the late-season hiring of Bill Parcells to run the organization, with Parcells tapping his former Cowboys assistant, Tony Sparano, as head coach. And in a rather intriguing circumstance, they?ll now hand the QB reins to Pennington, who was less than spectacular last year in nine games (eight starts) for the Jets, throwing for 1,765 yards, with 10 TDs against nine INTs.
The Jets have dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning seven of the last eight games straight up and posting an 8-0-1 ATS mark in the last nine meetings. Furthermore, New York is on a 5-0 ATS run in Miami and is 19-4-2 ATS in the last 25 clashes overall.
New York coach Eric Mangini?s troops have also cashed in six of their last eight road division contests. On the flip side, the Dolphins carry negative ATS streaks of 0-5-2 in September, 5-21-2 in AFC East play, 17-35-2 within the conference and a paltry 10-27-1 at home.
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams and is on additional streaks of 8-2-1 for New York in season openers, 11-5 for the Jets in division play, 4-1 for Miami overall and 6-2 for the Dolphins at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and OVER
Kansas City at New England
The Patriots, looking to a bounce back from a stunning Super Bowl loss that derailed a perfect season, open defense of their AFC crown against the Chiefs at Gillette Stadium.
New England (16-0, 10-6 ATS) held off Jacksonville and San Diego in the playoffs to run its record to 18-0 and reach the Super Bowl against the New York Giants. But the Pats? prolific offense never got going in the big game in Glendale, Ariz., and they lost 17-14 as 12?-point favorites. Prior to that, the Patriots hadn?t scored less than 20 points all year and had averaged a whopping 36.8 ppg in the regular season, while also easily leading the league in total yards at 411.2 per game.
Tom Brady, who sat out the entire preseason with a foot injury, is expected to be in the lineup today as he aims to build on a career year in which he completed nearly 69 percent of his passes for 4,806 yards and a record-setting 50 TDS, with just eight INTs.
Kansas City (4-12, 6-9-1 ATS) got off to a 4-3 start last year, then proceeded to drop nine straight games to close the season. The Chiefs finished a putrid 31st in the league in scoring offense (14.1 ppg) and total offense (226 ypg). QB Brodie Croyle took over as the starter for the last six games and played in a total of nine, completing 56.7 percent of his passes, but for just 1,227 yards, with six TDs offset by six INTs.
New England is 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with the Chiefs, but these two teams haven?t met since November 2005, when K.C. prevailed 26-16 laying three points.
The Patriots have cashed in 13 of their last 19 regular-season games. However, they went 0-6 ATS (including playoffs) to close out last year and are on further ATS slides of 0-5 at home and 0-4 in conference play. Meanwhile, despite their poor record last year, the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven on the highway.
The over has cashed in nine of New England?s last 11 season openers and is on further runs for the Patriots of 4-1 in September and 17-8 overall, dating to late 2006.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston at Pittsburgh
The Steelers, whose 9-3 start last year netted only a first-round playoff loss, open the year at Heinz Field against the up-and-coming Texans.
Pittsburgh (10-6, 8-8 ATS) lost three of its final four regular-season contests, forcing the team to play a playoff game on wild-card weekend. The Steelers then lost to Jacksonville 31-29, yet got the cash in the unusual role of being a 2?-point home underdog. QB Ben Roethlisberger had a solid season, completing 65.3 percent of his passes for 3,154 yards and a sterling 32-11 TD-to-INT ratio in 15 regular-season starts.
Houston (8-8 SU and ATS) is coming off the best season in the young franchise?s history, doing so in the extremely competitive AFC South. The Texans finished the year on a 5-3 run (5-2-1 ATS), but they lost their last two games, costing them any shot at the playoffs. QB Matt Schaub (2,241 passing yards, 9 TDs, 9 INTS in 11 games) is back as the starter for an offense that was in the top half of the league in points (12th) and yards (14th).
These two teams haven?t met since 2005 and have only two regular-season clashes against each other, splitting the two games SU and ATS.
The Steelers are on a 2-6 ATS slide within the conference, but they have covered in four of their last five season openers and sport additional pointspread streaks of 9-4 at Heinz and 7-3 as a non-division home chalk. The Texans, meanwhile, went 2-6 ATS in roadies last year and are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 on the highway under coach Gary Kubiak.
The over is on a 19-5-1 tear at home for Pittsburgh since 2005 and is 40-15-2 in the last 57 games at Heinz Field, and the total has gone high in six straight season openers for the Steelers. For Houston, the over is on runs of 7-2-1 on the road, 5-1 in September and 4-1 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER
Jacksonville at Tennessee
An AFC South rivalry is quickly renewed when the Jaguars head to Nashville for a clash with the Titans at LP Field, with both teams coming off playoff appearances.
Jacksonville (11-5 SU and ATS) rode first-year starter David Garrard to the playoffs last year, winning six of its last eight regular-season games (7-1 ATS) to get a wild-card berth. They opened the playoffs with a 31-29 win at Pittsburgh as an unusual 2?-point road chalk, then became the Patriots? 17th victim of 2007 in a 31-20 road loss in the divisional round, still cashing as a 13?-point ?dog.
Garrard was steady and efficient in 2007, posting an 18-3 TD-to-INT ratio while completing 64 percent of his passes for 2,509 yards in just 12 games. The Jags had the league?s sixth-best offense (357.4 ypg), bolstered by the second-best rushing attack (149.4 ypg), and their defense yielded just 19 ppg (10th).
Tennessee (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS) also got a wild-card spot last year by winning six of its last eight games (3-5 ATS), then fell at San Diego 17-6 as a 10?-point pup in the opening round. The Titans made it that far despite QB Vince Young, who in 15 regular-season starts threw nearly twice as many picks (17) as TDs (9) for an offense that averaged just 18.8 ppg (22nd). Tennessee?s defense made up for it, finishing fifth in yards allowed (291.6) and eighth in points allowed (18.6).
These two squads split last year?s meetings, with the road team winning and taking the cash in each case. Jacksonville is 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in the last six clashes, and the underdog is on a 9-2 ATS run.
The Jaguars went 7-3 ATS (including playoffs) on the highway last year and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine season openers and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games. The Titans are on ATS runs of 8-1 inside the division and 6-0 as a division ?dog, but they are on pointspread dives of 3-7 against the AFC and 2-5 at LP Field.
The over has cashed in five of the last six meetings in this rivalry, and the over for Jacksonville is on tears of 10-1-1 on the highway, 13-3-2 in AFC play and 4-1 in division games. On the flip side, the under is 11-5-1 in Tennessee?s last 17 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Detroit at Atlanta
The Falcons will trot out another new QB when they open the year at the Georgia Dome against the Lions, who folded in the second half of the 2007 season to once again miss the playoffs.
Atlanta (4-12, 8-8 ATS) drafted Boston College QB Matt Ryan in the first round and has given him the keys to an offense that averaged a mere 16.2 ppg (29th) and 259 ypg (23rd) last year. On the bright side, the Falcons finished last season on a 5-1 ATS run (3-3 SU), despite scoring 17 points or less in each of their last four games, and the offense has added former Chargers super sub Michael Turner at RB.
Detroit (7-9, 7-8-1 ATS) got out of the gate with a 6-2 start, then fell apart with a 1-7 SU and ATS finish. QB Jon Kitna returns under center after throwing 14 of his 20 INTs in the last eight games, including a dismal five-INT effort in a 51-14 blitzing at San Diego. And the Lions didn?t help Kitna?s cause by fielding the league?s worst defense, allowing 377 ypg and 27.8 ppg.
These two teams met once each year from 2004-06, with Detroit going 2-1 SU and ATS.
The Falcons, who went 3-5 ATS at home last year, are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 at the Dome and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Lions have taken the cash in five straight season openers, but they are 4-12 ATS on the road the past two seasons (0-4 ATS in their last four as visitors) and are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games.
The over for Detroit is on a 6-0 tear and is also on streaks of 4-0 on the road and 5-1 in September. The over for Atlanta is on runs of 7-0 overall, 6-0 in conference play and 4-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Seattle at Buffalo
The Seahawks, who bowed out in the second round of the playoffs last year, cross the country to open the season at Ralph Wilson Stadium in a non-conference tilt against the Bills.
Seattle (10-6, 9-7 ATS) lost two of its last three regular-season games in 2007 to land in the wild-card round, where it dispatched Washington 35-14 as a three-point home chalk. But the Seahawks then got thumped in the snow at Green Bay, losing 35-14 while catching nine points. QB Matt Hasselbeck returns this year after a strong 2007 in which he completed 62.6 percent of his passes for 3,966 yards, with 28 TDs against 12 INTs.
The Seahawks averaged 348.9 yards and 24.6 points per game in 2007, good for ninth in the NFL, while fielding the league?s sixth-best scoring defense (18.2 ppg).
Buffalo (7-9, 9-7 ATS) dropped its final three games last year (1-2 ATS), playing musical QBs with Trent Edwards (5-4 as the starter) and J.P. Losman (2-5 as the starter). The Bills, who wil lgo with Edwards to start this season, finished a dismal 30th in the league in total yards (277.1) and points per game (15.8).
These two squads haven?t met since 2004, when Buffalo took a 38-9 road win getting 4? points. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
The Bills have taken the cash in four of their last five season openers and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games (6-2 last year). The Seahawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 starts overall, but the ATS trends turn downward from there, including 6-14-1 outside Seattle, 0-3 in their first road game the past three seasons and 2-10 on the highway versus the AFC.
The over is 19-9 in Seattle?s last 28 road games and is on runs of 4-0 for the Bills at home and 6-0 in this rivalry. But the under is 11-4-1 in Seattle?s last 16 September starts and 11-3 in Buffalo?s last 14 September games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Two NFC South rivals collide when the Buccaneers travel to the Superdome to meet the Saints, who are looking to regain the form that got them to the NFC title game two years ago.
Tampa Bay (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) lost three of its last four regular-season games, yet still captured the NFC South and hosted a wild-card game ? a 24-14 loss as a three-point favorite against the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants. The Bucs, who were in the race to land Brett Favre this summer, will instead be sticking with veteran Jeff Garcia, who was steady but not spectacular last year (2,440 yards passing, 13 TDs, 4 INTs). Tampa relied more on one of the league?s stingiest defenses in yards allowed (278.4, 2nd) and points allowed (16.9, 3rd).
New Orleans (7-9, 6-10 ATS) dropped its last two games SU and ATS last season, potentially losing a return trip to the playoffs in the process. QB Drew Brees was solid, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 4,423 yards and 28 TDS, against 18 INTs, for the league?s fourth-best offense (361.2 ypg). But without starting RB Deuce McAlister (now back after a knee injury), New Orleans ? which started out 0-4 in 2007 ? were 28th in rushing yards per game (91.6).
Tampa won both meetings with the Saints last year both SU and ATS and is on a 7-2 ATS run (6-3 SU) in this rivalry, getting the cash in the last five games at the dome. In addition, the road team has cashed in eight of the past 10 contests, and the underdog is on a 9-3 ATS run.
The Bucs went just 3-5 ATS on the highway last year, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 7-3 as a division road ?dog, 5-1 in division play and 4-1 in September. Conversely, the Saints are in ATS funks of 6-13 overall, 1-10 as a home chalk, 2-5 in the NFC South, and 17-36-2 at home.
The over is on a 5-0 spree in the last five meetings between these two teams and is on additional runs of 5-1 for the Bucs overall, 4-0 for the Bucs on the road, 5-0 for New Orleans overall and 5-0 for New Orleans at the Superdome.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and OVER
St. Louis at Philadelphia
The Rams, with star RB Steven Jackson healthy and signed to a new six-year deal, look to put a rough 2007 season behind them when they head to Lincoln Financial Field for a date with the Eagles.
St. Louis (3-13, 5-11 ATS) lost its first eight games last season (1-7 ATS) and finished on a four-game slide (1-3 ATS). Jackson missed all of four games and parts of two others, yet still rushed for 1,002 yards (4.2 ypc). QB Marc Bulger (2,392 passing yards, 11 TDs, 15 INTs) also missed four games and wasn?t particularly effective in the other 12 for an offense that averaged just 16.4 ppg (28th).
Philadelphia (8-8, 9-7 ATS) was the only NFC East team to miss the playoffs last year, despite winning its last three games (2-1 ATS). QB Donovan McNabb (3,324 passing yards, 19-7 TD-to-INT ratio) finally had a relatively healthy year, with 14 starts for an offense that was middle-of-the-pack in scoring (21 ppg), though the defense was ninth in the league in points allowed (18.8).
The Rams and Eagles have split six meetings since 2000, with Philly going 4-1-1 ATS. Philadelphia is also 4-0-1 ATS at home in this rivalry.
The Rams are on a 3-9 ATS slide catching points and are on further pointspread declines of 0-4 in September, 1-6-1 in season openers and 6-14-1 in non-division road games. The Eagles aren?t much better, though, having gone 2-6 ATS at home last year, and they carry additional negative ATS trends of 9-16 at the Linc since 2005 and 5-10 as a home chalk since 2006.
The under is 13-5 in the Rams? last 18 road games, including 6-2 last year, and the under is on further runs of 7-0 in September for St. Louis, 4-1 in Week 1 for the Eagles and 7-3 for Philly at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Dallas at Cleveland
Dallas, which earned, and then blew, home-field advantage in the playoffs last year, opens its run for redemption on the Lake Erie shore in a non-conference contest against the Browns.
The Cowboys (13-3, 9-7 ATS) got out of the gate 12-1 last year (9-4 ATS) and seemed a sure bet for the Super Bowl, but they were upset 21-17 by the eventual champion Giants in the divisional playoff round as a seven-point home chalk. Including the playoff defeat, Dallas finished the year on an 0-5 ATS slide (2-3 SU). QB Tony Romo broke out in his first full year as a starter, completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 4,211 yards and 36 TDs (against 19 INTs) in an offense that was second only to New England at 28.4 ppg.
Cleveland (10-6, 12-4 ATS) had by far its most successful season since coach Romeo Crennel took over, but lost out on the playoffs because of a tiebreaker despite winning eight of its last 11 games (9-2 ATS). QB Derek Anderson (3,787 passing yards, 29 TDs, 19 INTs) put first-round draft pick Brady Quinn on the back burner and will return as the starter after powering a Browns offense that finished eighth in points (25.1) and yards (351.3) per game.
These two teams have met just once this decade, a 19-14 Dallas win as a 5?-point home favorite in 2004.
Dallas, which split the cash in eight road games last year, is 5-13 SU in its last 18 roadies against the AFC. Cleveland, meanwhile, went 7-1 SU and ATS at home last season ? winning and cashing the last seven in a row -- and is 4-1 ATS in its last five September starts.
The under is on a 6-0 spree for Cleveland, but the over has been the play in five straight season openers for Dallas and is also 13-4-2 in the Cowboys? last 19 road games and 4-1-1 in Cleveland?s last six in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
Carolina at San Diego
The Chargers, aiming to take that final step to the Super Bowl after falling one game short last year, go outside the AFC in their season opener against the Panthers at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego (11-5 SU and ATS) ripped off a 6-0 SU and ATS streak to cap the 2007 regular season. The Chargers then beat Tennessee on wild-card weekend 17-6 laying 10? points at home and stunned Indianapolis 28-24 catching 10? points on the road to reach the AFC final. However, with star RB LaDainian Tomlinson limited by a knee injury and QB Philip Rivers playing on a torn knee ligament, the Chargers fell at New England 21-12 ? yet covered once again as a 14-point pup.
Rivers (3,152 yards passing, 21 TDs, 15 INTs) led the league?s fifth-best scoring offense (25.8 ppg), and Tomlinson rushed for a league-leading 1,474 yards (4.7 ypc), putting him over the 10,000-yard career mark in just seven seasons.
Carolina (7-9, 8-8 ATS) had a five-game SU and ATS midseason losing streak sabotage its 2007 campaign, though the Panthers finished on a 4-1 ATS surge. QB Jake Delhomme got off to a blazing start, with eight TDs and just one INT in the team?s first three games, before having to undergo season-ending reconstructive elbow surgery. He returns as the starter for an offense that averaged just 16.7 ppg (26th) and 284.9 ypg (29th).
These teams haven?t met since 2004, and there have been just two meetings this decade, with each squad winning and cashing on the road.
The Chargers have cashed in nine straight games (playoffs included) and are on further pointspread streaks of 8-1 at home, 11-3 laying points and 44-20-2 overall. The Panthers are in ATS slumps of 1-5-2 against the AFC, 2-6 in September and 1-4 in season openers.
The under has cashed in 11 of Carolina?s last 12 season openers and is on runs of 9-4 for the Panthers overall and 5-2 for San Diego at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Arizona at San Francisco
Two division rivals looking to end long playoff droughts hook up at Monster Park in San Francisco, where the 49ers host the Cardinals in an NFC West clash between teams with high-profile, former first-round draft picks at QB ? neither of whom will start today.
Arizona (8-8, 8-7-1 ATS) got just five starts out of Matt Leinart last year before he broke his collarbone, and the 2006 first-round choice threw for just 647 yards, with two TDs and four INTs. Veteran Kurt Warner (3,417 yards, 27 TDs, 17 INTs) made the last 11 starts, then beat out Leinart in the preseason to get the starting nod this year from second-year coach Ken Whisenhunt.
The 49ers (5-11, 5-10-1 ATS) had 2005 No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith for just seven games before Smith suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Smith completed a lowly 48.7 percent of his passes for 914 yards, with two TDs and four INTs. Then in the preseason, Smith was beaten out for the starting job by J.T. O?Sullivan, who was a backup last year with the Lions ? where he worked under new Niners offensive coordinator Mike Martz.
San Francisco won both clashes against the Cardinals last year, though Arizona got the cash on the road. In fact, the road team is on a 5-0 ATS streak, and the underdog is on a 4-0 ATS run.
The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 as a division chalk, but they are on positive ATS runs of 4-0 in September and 10-4 playing on grass. Meanwhile, the 49ers are on a bevy of negative ATS streaks, including 2-8 against the NFC, 4-9 on grass, 3-7 at home and 2-5 in NFC West play.
For Arizona, the over is on streaks of 5-0 inside the division, 25-9 against the NFC, 38-14 on the highway and 41-20 overall, and the over is 7-2 in the last nine contests in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Chicago at Indianapolis
The contestants in the Super Bowl two seasons ago square off when the Colts inaugurate the new Lucas Oil Stadium for a prime-time season opener against the Bears.
Indianapolis (13-3, 9-7 ATS) won six of its last seven regular-season games in 2007 (3-4 ATS) and appeared poised to at least give New England a battle in the AFC Championship Game. But after getting a playoff bye, the Colts ? as 10?-point home favorites ? were stunned in the divisional round 28-24 by San Diego. QB Peyton Manning is coming off a typically sterling season (65.4 completion percentage, 4,040 yards, 31 TDs, 14 INTs), and he will start tonight despite not playing a down in the preseason after undergoing minor knee surgery over the summer.
Indy had the league?s third-best scoring offense last season (28.1 ppg), churning out 358.7 ypg (fifth), and its defense yielded a league-best 16.4 ppg.
Chicago (7-9 SU and ATS) didn?t fare nearly as well last year coming off its Super Bowl loss to Indianapolis, failing to string together consecutive wins until the last two weeks of the season. Consistently inconsistent QB Rex Grossman played in eight games (seven starts) last year, coming up with just four TDs against seven INTs while throwing for 1,411 yards. Kyle Orton (478 yards passing, 3 TDs, 2 INTs in three starts in ?07) beat out Grossman last month and will start for the Bears, who finished 27th in total offense and 28th in total defense last year.
Not counting a 2007 preseason tilt, these two teams last met in Super Bowl XLI in February 2007, with Indianapolis posting a 29-17 victory as a 6?-point chalk in the rain in Miami.
The Colts are on a 1-4 ATS slide at home (including playoffs), but they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five season openers and are on further ATS streaks of 11-6 as a home favorite and 20-8-1 in 29 September. The Bears, who split the cash in their eight road games last year, are on pointspread skids of 0-5 in September and 2-5 in season openers.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven games for both these teams, but the total has stayed low in four straight season openers for Chicago and is 4-1 in Indy?s last five Week 1 contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
