Ben Burns
college basketball GOM
BAYLOR
Game: Baylor vs. Notre Dame Game Time: 11/18/2007 8:30:00 PM Prediction: Baylor Reason: I'm taking the points with BAYLOR. Not much is expected of Baylor. Coming off a 15-16 season in which they finished 4-12 in the conference, the Bears were picked ninth in a poll of league coaches. However, I think that they're better than people are giving them credit for and that they're going to catch some teams by surprise. Knocking off Wichita State last time out was a good start. Baylor returns all five of its starters, the bulk of its scoring with additional help coming from a trio of promising newcomers. In fact, this is the most experienced team that coach Scott Drew has ever had here. The Bears, who boast a strong and experienced backcourt to go with an improved frontcourt, have been profitable as small to medium-sized underdogs under Drew. Looking back to 2003 and we find them at 11-5 ATS the last 16 times they were listed as underdogs of eight points or less. This year's team received some added playing time (and already got to experience an exotic location) by playing some exhibition games in Cancuin in September. The perception that the Bears are still a bad team is giving us excellent value. Look for the adding playing time in Mexico to pay dividends here as the experienced Bears give the Irish, who have yet to face a decent team, all they can handle with an excellent shot at scoring the upset. *Game of the Month
NBA
BULLS (+4 or better)
Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game Time: 11/18/2007 9:35:00 PM Prediction: Chicago Bulls Reason: I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. The Bulls snapped out of their funk in a big way yesterday, as they held the Clippers to a mere 73 points, winning by 19. This is a talented and deep team and I expect them to build off that performance with another victory this evening. Many teams struggle when playing the second of back to back games. However, looking back to last season and we find the the Bulls have won 14 of 20 (outright) when in that situation. The Bulls should be happy to be playing their first "Sunday game" of the season as they've really thrived on "the Lord's Day" the past few seasons. In fact, they're a profitable 15-4 ATS (14-5 SU) the last 19 times they played on a Sunday and 51-31 ATS the last 82. The Bulls are also 7-4 ATS the last 11 times they were listed as underdogs of six points or less. Conversely, the Lakers are a dismal 5-14-1 ATS the last 20 times they were favored by six points or less, losing 11 of those games outright. I expect an inspired effort from the entire Bulls team here as they attempt to prove that they don't need or want Kobe Bryant and improve to 9-4 ATS the last 13 meetings in this series. *Non-Conf GOW
NHL
MINNESOTA (-135 or better)
Game: Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 11/18/2007 6:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm playing on MINNESOTA. These teams faced each other at Colorado exactly one week ago with the Avalanche earning a 4-2 victory. That brought the home team to a perfect 3-0 in this series for the season and 5-0 dating back to last year. That's no real surprise though as both teams are MUCH better at home than they are on the road. While the Avalanche are 9-1 at home, they're just 2-6 on the road. Conversely, the Wild are 4-6 on the road but a solid 6-2 here in Minnesota, winning the last two games here by a combined score of 9-3. The Wild are also already a profitable 5-2 (+3.4) when facing a team which defeated them in their most recent meeting. The Wild will likely go with Niklas Backstrom in goal. Backstrom has won all six of his starts at the Xcel Energy Center, posting a 1.17 goals-against average and two shutouts. He's also 4-1-1 with a 2.28 GAA against the Avalanche for his career. Although they're a bit banged-up at the moment, the Wild still have plenty of talent. Look for them to "hold serve" on home ice, earning the important two points vs. their primary division rival. *Game of Week