BEN BURNS
MINNESOTA
Game: Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Game Time: 4/6/2008 2:10:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Twins Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. After losing the likes of Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, the Twins are likely in for a fairly tough season. However, this is one team which they're still fully capable of beating. The Twins have already taken the first two games of the series and I feel that this afternoon's matchup gives them an excellent shot at completing the sweep. I successfully played against Bonser in his first start and the Twins lost 9-1. That was against the Angels though, a much tougher opponent than the Royals. Off that loss, the price on Bonser has come down into a very reasonable range today. I watched that game though and, after the first inning, Bonser was actually a lot sharper than the final score indicates. Overall, he gave up three earned runs (1 unearned) in six complete innings. He had 4 K's and 0 walks. Those aren't Jake Peavy type stats but they aren't that bad for the first start either, particularly against such a strong team. He was quoted after that game as saying: "I was just happy to get the first one out of the way. I settled down afterwards and got going." Now, Bonser's got a game under his belt, is stepping down significantly in class and his team has started to gather some momentum. Keep in mind that he's got "nasty stuff" and that he lost about 30 pounds in the offseason, determined to have a big year. While Bonser's got real potential in this league, Tomko is on the downside of a less than mediocre career. This is his 12th big league season and he's only ever had an ERA below 4.00 once, his first season back in 1997. Last year, splitting time between the Padres and Dodgers (two teams much better than KC!) he went 4-12 with an awful 5.55 ERA. Now he's fighting to be the fifth starter on one of the league's weakest teams. The last time that Tomko started at Minnesota was in 2005, while pitching for the Giants. He was fortunate to get plenty of run support that day but still gave up seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. Don't expect him to be so fortunate, in terms of run support, this afternoon. Yesterday's loss dropped the Royals to 15-38 in the month of April the past few seasons and 35-60 when playing during the afternoon. Look for those numbers to get even worse as Bonser outpitches Tomko and the Twins complete the sweep. *AL GOW
COLORADO
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Game Time: 4/6/2008 3:05:00 PM Prediction: Colorado Rockies Reason: I'm laying the price with COLORADO. The Rockies have gotten off to a tough start offensively, which has led to a 1-4 record. However, I expect them to break out of their offensive funk in a big way this afternoon. Colorado slugger and 2007 NL batting champ Matt Holiday broke out of his 1 for 14 slump with a pair of hits yesterday. Today, he'll face Edgar Gonzalez, who has never gotten him out (4 for 4 with two doubles) in his career. Note that Todd Helton, who has hit home runs in back to back games, has two HRs in just six at bats vs. Gonzalez, who had a 5.03 ERA last season. . Overall, Gonzalez has an ugly 9.00 ERA in eight games - two starts - all-time against Colorado. He lost the two starts, both at Colorado, by scores of 11-1 (last September) and 10-2, failing to pitch more than four innings in either start. Franklin Morales gets the call for Colorado. While he's still very young, Morales showed that he is capable of pitching at this level when he came up late last season. Indeed, the 22-year-old southpaw closed out the season by going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last four starts. Today, he'll have the advantage of facing Arizona for the first time. The Rockies were a profitable 52-46 (+11.3) in afternoon games the past two seasons. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Diamondbacks were a money-burning 42-54 (-9.7). Look for the Rockies to bounce back and avoid the sweep, improving to 11-4 the last 15 series meetings. *Personal Favorite
UNDER Tigers/Sox
Game: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Game Time: 4/6/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Tigers and White Sox to finish UNDER the total. Both these starters would prefer to forget about their Opening Day start. Verlander only gave up four hits in six innings in his first start. However, he allowed four runs en route to a 5-4 extra inning loss. Buerhle was worse, as he got ripped by the Indians. Let's not make the mistake of over-reacting to one start though. Verlander is the Tigers' #1 guy while Buehrle has quietly been one of the most solid and consistent starters in the AL this entire millennium. Indeed, Buehrle is the only starter in Chicago history to make 30 or more starts, while recording 200 or more innings, in seven consecutive seasons. Last week's result notwithstanding, he's a stellar 107-75 with a 3.84 ERA for his career. That includes a 12-8 record with a lifetime 3.14 ERA against the Tigers. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a profitable 15-7-1 during that stretch. As a team, the Tigers have seen the UNDER go 5-2-1 their last eight games against left-handed starters and 50-40-8 the past few seasons. Verlander, who was 10-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 17 home starts in 2007, doesn't have overly impressive career stats against the White Sox. However, he has delivered three straight "quality starts" (minimum of 6 innings with 3 runs or less) against the Sox and has seen the UNDER go 6-1 his last seven starts against them, with those seven games averaging a combined seven runs each. His most recent two starts against the Sox resulted in a 3-2 loss and a 4-3 loss. With yesterday's game staying below the total, the UNDER is now 5-1 the last six series meetings here and 7-2 the last nine series meetings overall. I look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip
NBA
SONICS
Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 4/6/2008 9:05:00 PM Prediction: Seattle SuperSonics Reason: I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. Not many people will like the Sonics here but I feel that the situation is strongly in their favor. The Nuggets are off a hard fought loss to Sacramento. That game, which came in the high altitude of Denver, was not only physically demanding but was emotionally disheartening. Note that the Kings were playing without Ron Artest and Brad Miller, two of their best three players. The Nuggets were sloppy, turning the ball over numerous times. It was their first home loss against a losing team in 2008. That defeat dropped them to an eighth place tie with the Warriors, a team they already may be thinking about as they face them this Thursday. Regardless if that's the case, I feel that the Nuggets will have some trouble focusing on the 'lowly' Sonics, as they've absolutely crushed them in all three meetings. Note that Denver is just 2-7 SU/ATS the last nine times it played the second of back to back games and a money-burning 94-134-7 ATS (41%!) in that role the past decade. The earlier losses should provide plenty of motivation for the Sonics, who are currently a bigger home underdog than they have been at any time this decade. While they have admittedly struggled of late, the Sonics remain a profitable 11-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record in the second half. They'd love nothing more than to bounce back and deal the Nuggets a major blow to their playoff hopes. I expect the Sonics, who had yesterday off, to be highly motivated to avoid being embarrassed again. Look for them to deliver their best effort and for that to be more than enough to hang within the inflated number. *Contrarian GOM
