Larry Ness' 20* IL Total of the Month (off 3-0 MLB sweep / 5-1 in games)
My 20* play is on Tex/Was Under at 1:35 ET
Scott Spreitzer's 25* Interleague BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT! *Won GOY!
I'm laying the price with the Brewers on Sunday
Larry Ness
Weekend Wipeout Winner-MLB (backed by a 71.4 percent go-against trend!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Brewers at 2:05 ET. The Orioles are having a solid season in '08, as last night's 3-2 loss leaves them at 38-35, a major improvement from their 2007 record of 69-93. However, the Orioles are still not to be trusted on the road (16-23 this year), especially considering the fact that they went 64-98 the last two seasons away from Camden Yards. In this "rubber game" of this three-game series at Milwaukee, the Orioles will be hard-pressed to come away with a win. Milwaukee's win on Saturday makes them 24-13 at home this year and let's not forget that the Brewers were 99-63 (plus-$1,950) the last two seasons at home ('06 and '07). The starting pitching matchup also gives Milwaukee a solid advantage today, as well. Two left-handers square off, Olson for the Orioles and Parra for the Brewers. Olson got off to a solid start in '08, going 5-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his first eight starts (team was 5-3) but in his last two starts, he's really been 'roughed up,' allowing 13 hits and 10 ERs over 10 innings (9.00 ERA). Breaking his numbers down home and away and we find that he's 3-0 with 3.50 ERA at home (team is 4-1) and 2-2 with a 6.24 ERA on the road (team is 2-3). He'll face a Milwaukee team which is 13-8 vs left-handers in '08, including 6-1 in day games. Parra, like so many of Milwaukee's pitchers, has been excellent at home, while struggling on the road. He's had a pretty solid season overall, going 6-2 with a 4.22 ERA in 14 starts 099-5) but his home and away breakdowns are significant. He's 2-2 with a 7.25 ERA in six road starts (team is 3-3) but 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA in eight home starts (team is 6-2). He'll really like the fact that the Orioles have struggled against lefties this year, going 7-11 (2-6 on the road). If you think that's not enough of a sample size, try this. Over the last two seasons combined (that's '06 and '07), the Orioles went 35-60 vs lefties, including a rather pathetic 14-34 on the road! so since the beginning of the '06 season, Baltimore has gone just 16-40 against lefties on the road, or a winning percentage of only 28.6 percent! Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Mil Brewers.
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider-MLB (85.7 percent trend inside!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 4:10 ET. What's going on here? The Indians have struggled at the plate all season (are hitting an AL-low .245) and entered this weekend series at Dodger Stadium having been swept (0-6) in both of their interleague road series this year (May 16-18 at Cincy and earlier this week at Coors Field). That wasn't exactly something new, as Cleveland had lost 16 of 24 interleague road games before this series, going back to June of 2005. However, the Indians have won consecutive extra-inning games, 6-4 (10) on Friday and 7-2 (11) on Saturday. Now while I realize that the back-to-back losses drop the Dodgers to just 1-7 in interleague play in '08, I MUST back them this afternoon, considering the pitching matchup. Paul Byrd goes for the Indians and he comes in having allowed five ERs or more in FOUR of his last six starts (30.1 IP / 43 hits / 26 ERs / 7.71 ERA). His road record in '08 has been nothing short of DREADFUL, allowing 54 hits and 37 ERs over 41.1 innings of eight starts, for an ERA of 7.19 (he's 1-6 and the team is 1-7!). Adding insult to injury, he's 0-4 with a 3.82 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers (his teams are 1-4) and that DOESN'T include his 10.38 ERA against them in six relief appearances (ouch!). OK, the Dodgers have their problems as well but there can't be much criticism of the way Chad Billingsley has pitched as of late. He opened the '08 season with two relief appearances and then went 0-4 with a 6.87 ERa in his first four starts. However, in the last two of those four losses, he had 21 Ks in just 11 innings. The team felt he was "on the verge" and the Dodgers were right. Over his next seven starts, Billingsley allowed two ERs or less six times, posting a 1.80 ERA. He did run into some tough going in back-to-back starts on June 6 and 11 (12 IP / 15 hits / 8 ERs / 6.00 ERA) but he was strong in his last outing (Tues at Cincy), winning 3-1 (6.1 IP / 5 hits / 1 ER)/. Doing the math, Billingsley has posted a 2.56 ERA over his last 10 starts. The Indians win yesterday afternoon, was just the team's SECOND in 12 day games this year, with the Indians averaging a woeful 2.67 RPG. Going against the Tribe in day games this year, makes you 12-2 or 85.7 percent! Las Vegas Insider on the LA Dodgers.
Scott Spreitzer
IL KNOCKOUT MISMATCH GAME OF THE WEEK!
I'm laying the price with the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Brandon Webb of Arizona is the frontrunner for the Cy Young in the National League. He'd be getting even more respect if people adjusted for his home field! Webb has to pitch his home games in a great hitter's park. His road ERA is 2.68, with a sparkling WHIP of 1.07. Webb will be on the road today in Minnesota. Livan Hernandez is pitching for the Twins. His ERA is a horrible 8.91 in his last six outings. He's basically been throwing batting practice. It's a mismatch on the mound. Arizona is better in my favorite offensive stat as well. They've got an on-base percentage of .327 this year with their pitchers batting, while Minnesota is at .326 in the DH league! Arizona will get to use a DH today, expanding their edge. I've been avoiding Arizona when the back end of their rotation is throwing. In fact, I used Minnesota on these pages on Saturday. But with Webb, Arizona will be in position to post a blowout victory Sunday afternoon. The Diamondbacks minus the price is the play.
