Sunday Service Plays 8/31/08

[the duke]

LT Profits

2* Kentucky vs Louisville UNDER 57.0



FairWay Jay

3* Colorado -10.5
3* Colorado vs Colorado State UNDER 57.0



Bob Akmens

4* Louisville -3.5



Alex Smart

3* Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Saskatchewan Roughriders OVER 49.5

 

[the duke]

Scott Ferrall

NCAA First Weekend FreeBees

Kentucky +4.5 from Louisville--why not have a tight game that ends with OT or a field goal

Colorado -11.5 to Colorado St--the Buffalo's are better, but this game is usually tight--here's to hoping it isn't this year


BASEBALL FREE B's FOR SUNDAY

BEST IN BOLD

Halladay EVEN ODDS over Pettitte--Jays do it to Yanks again

Detroit -200 with Galarraga over KC and Meche

CLEVELAND -160 over Seattle--Jackson over Silva

Zambrano -200 and Cubs over Moyer and the Phillies

Webb and the D'Backs -170 over LA and Lowe

Peavy -150 and the Padres over Francis and the Rockies

 

[the duke]

MARC LAWRENCE

Newsletter Plays

5* BEST BET

LOUISVILLE over Kentucky by 17
When does a 6-6 season feel worse than kissing your sister? When you had a date with a Super Model and end up having to take sis to a Hannah Montana concert, that?s when! For a team that has National Title aspirations, last year?s 6-6 effort was bittersweet for coach Steve Kragthorpe and the Cardinals. The biggest problem was a defense that nose-dived nearly 100 YPG. To help shore up the black hole, they promptly hired well-respected Ron English as the new DC and Secondary Coach. One of the culprits that kept UL home for the holidays last season was Kentucky when the Wildcats banished the Cardinals in Lexington (as 5.5 point dogs). Beset with QB problems (Curtis Pulley tossed off the squad for disciplinary reasons) and heavy graduation losses, the Wildcats are the Kentucky Fried answer to this week?s BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW article on page 2. Look for the host in this series to improve to 5-0 ATS when Coach K opts to step on the pedal early and often in this statement-making game today.


Colorado over Colorado St by 17

Normally in rivalry games our fi rst inclination is to make a case for the avenging dog. However, word out of Fort Collins is the Rams will be a dog without much fi ght this campaign. First year boss Steve Fairchild replaces icon Sonny Lubick ? minus the services of QB Caleb Hanie (graduated) who led the MWC in passing effi ciency last season.Aside from the SMART BOX angle at work our database reminds us that bowlers who fi nished the season with a losing record (6-7) due to a bowl loss are sharp plays in season-opening games. With Buffs? head coach Dan Hawkins 43-16 ATS in straight-up wins, including 13-0 his last 13, we?ll roam with the Buffalo in Denver.


WINNING POINTS

Colorado over Colorado State by 14 (Sunday at Denver)
In a series in which each of the last four meetings have been decided by four points or less, this pointspread is making a statement about the directions of the programs.And we believe those directions enough to not call for the usual barnburner.
COLORADO 30-16.

Louisville* over Kentucky by 1 (Sunday)
Both new quarterbacks, Hunter Cantwell and Mike Hartline, inherit big shoes,but should be fine in time. For now we like Hartline?s supporting cast batter, and that puts the underdog Wildcats firmly in this hunt to the final possession.
LOUISVILLE 27-26.


GOLD SHEET

*Colorado 30 - Colorado State 13--Former Colorado State QB and assistant Steve Fairchild takes over for Sonny Lubick, who guided the Rams to uncharted heights during his 15 years as HC. But Lubick's program lost some steam the last two seasons, going 4-8 and then 3-9. It must be noted that this rivalry has been one of the more tightly contested in recent years, with 7 of the last 8 meetings decided by 7 points or fewer. In 2008, however, Colorado--in its third season under Dan Hawkins--appears to be on the rise. Hawkins has been landing some prime-time recruits (frosh RB Darrell Scott turned down Texas), and son soph QB Cody can be counted upon to improve. Meanwhile, the CSU QB situation is uproven, and the Ram RBs, while tough, lack speed. (at Denver, CO)

Kentucky 27 - LOUISVILLE 26--Previously high-flying L'ville took a serious tumble LY (worst mark since '97) under new HC Steve Kragthorpe. And since there are still major concerns on a revamped Card defense (33 ppg) that gave up a plethora of big plays year ago, prefer to "take" with ascending rival Kentucky, even without record-breaking QB Andre Woodson. After all, Wildcats new QB Hartline, who'll benefit from a talented trio of RBs (Allen, Dixon & Locke), can work play-action vs. yielding L'Ville 2ndary (25 TDP, just 7 ints.). And with UK mentor Brooks thrilled with his added depth and speed on the DL and in 2ndary, Card QB Cantwell won't have field day, especially with WRing corps (see Ticker) suffering some attrition. CABLE TV--ESPN


Pointwise

5-Colorado State (+11 1/2) over Colorado (in Denver) 24-32

Key Selections are graded 1 to 4, with 1 being the highest rating. "5" rated games are considered "best of the rest"


NC POWER PLAYS

COLORADO 35 COLORADO ST 18

This is the 9th meeting in Denver between these 2 rivals (series tied 4-4). The last 6 meetings
have been decided by a combined 25 pts (none by more than a TD). The dog has dropped 2
straight but was 9-1 ATS prior to that. PP calls for CU to win by 17 (line 11?) with a 463-287 yd
edge. Tough to go against the dog (especially with DD) in this close series, but this year may
be the exception.


HQ Report Newsletter

HQ UNDERDOG PLAY KENTUCKY (+4) over LOUISVILLE

 

[the duke]

Alatex

Superplay

Kentucky

 

[the duke]

WILD BILL

Reds-Giants Under 8? (5 units)
Nationals +125 (5 units)
Phils +185 (5 units)
Royals +185 (5 units)
White Sox +145 (5 units)
Jays +105 (5 units)
Orioles +230 (5 units)
Rangers-Angels Under 9 (5 units)
Twins -150 (5 units)


Kentucky-Louisville Under 55? (5 units)
CSU-Colorado Over 56? (5 units)

 

[the duke]

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Kentucky at Louisville

Louisville opens the season against archrival Kentucky in the annual battle for the Governor?s Cup in Papa John?s Cardinals Stadium in Louisville.

Kentucky (8-5, 6-5-1 ATS) started off last season with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), including a last-minute 40-34 upset victory over the Cardinals as a 4?-point home ?dog in Week 3. However, after the hot start, the Wildcats dropped five of their next seven games both SU and ATS before beating Florida State 35-28 in the Music City Bowl, pushing as a seven-point chalk.

Louisville (6-6, 4-7 ATS) saw its season spiral downward after the loss to Kentucky, and the Cardinals missed out on a bowl game for the first time this decade.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four series clashes, and despite last year?s loss, Louisville is 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the last nine. Finally, the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Kentucky lost a slew of offensive weapons from last year?s explosive team that averaged 35 points and nearly 450 yards per game, including QB Andre Woodson, leading rusher Rafael Little and top wideouts Keenan Burton and Steve Johnson. Sophomore Mike Hartline was handed the starting QB job when senior Curtis Pulley was removed from the team at the start of preseason practice. Defense will be essential for Kentucky, as the Wildcats have five all-SEC candidates among seven returning starters, including DE Jeremy Jarmon, who was fourth in the SEC in sacks a season ago.

Louisville lost QB Brian Brohm, who led an offense that averaged 32 points and almost 500 yards per game in 2007, but the Cardinals have experience under center in Hunter Cantwell who has thrown for 1,419 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs as a three-year backup. He has started four games in his career, going 3-1. Also, RB Brock Bolen is back after running for 456 yards and seven TDs last year.

Like Kentucky, Louisville had a shaky defense last season, allowing more than 31 points a game, but there are eight starters returning to that unit.

The under is 5-2 in the last seven Governor?s Cups.

ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE


Colorado vs. Colorado State, at Denver

The Buffaloes and Rams converge on Invesco Field in Denver in this annual in-state rivalry, which has been decided by seven points or less each of the last six years.

Colorado got a 31-28 overtime victory in this showdown last season, covering as a 2?-point favorite, but otherwise the underdog has dominated this rivalry, cashing in five straight meetings and eight of the last 10 before last year?s contest. Finally, Colorado State is 6-3 ATS in the last nine clashes.

The Buffs (6-7 SU and ATS) were inconsistent last season under then second-year coach Dan Hawkins, struggling down the stretch in going 2-5 SU and ATS in the final seven, including a 30-24 loss to Alabama in the Independence Bowl. On the bright side last year, Colorado went 4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a double-digit chalk.

Hawkins? son Cody started last season as a redshirt freshman and threw for 2,693 yards with 22 total TDs (19 passing). On the defensive side, Colorado has the Big 12?s leading tackler back in LB Jeff Smart, who made 162 stops a season ago.

For the Rams, first-year coach Steve Fairchild has some big shoes to fill, replacing legend Sonny Lubick, who was on the Colorado State sidelines for 15 years. However, Colorado State (3-9, 5-6 ATS in 2007) struggled in Lubick?s last four seasons, going just 17-30 after winning six conference crowns in a nine-year span that ended in 2002.

The Rams lost their first six games (1-5 ATS) of 2007, running their losing streak to 13 before getting a 48-23 win at UNLV in Week 7. They finished the year 4-1 ATS, including back-to-back outright wins over Georgia Southern (42-34 in a non-lined game) and Wyoming (36-28 as 3?-point favorites) to close out the Lubick era.

Colorado State has experience at RB in Kyle Bell, who led the Mountain West Conference in rushing in 2005 with 1,288 yards before missing a season with a knee injury. However, the Rams struggled on defense a season ago, allowing 30.8 points and 415.2 yards per game.

The over is 10-4 in the Rams? last 14 against Big 12 opposition and 7-2-1 in their last 10 against non-conference foes. The over is also 9-3 in Colorado?s last 12 against Mountain West competition. Finally, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 clashes in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia (74-62) at Chicago Cubs (85-51)

The Phillies will be looking for a split of this four-game set when they send veteran lefty Jamie Moyer (11-7, 3.81 ERA) to the hill opposite Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano (13-5, 3.53) at Wrigley Field.

Philadelphia lost the first two games of this series by scores of 6-4 and 3-2 before bouncing back with Saturday?s 5-2 victory. These squads have split six games this season, but the Cubs are tough to beat in Wrigley, going 50-17 in their last 67 in front of the faithful. Chicago is also on streaks of 18-6 against N.L. East teams, 19-7 in Sunday contests and 5-0 when Zambrano faces N.L. East competition.

Saturday?s victory aside, the Phillies are just 3-7 in their last 10 on the highway, but they?re 8-3 in Moyer?s last 11 Sunday affairs.

Moyer is 7-3 with a 2.79 ERA on the road and the Phillies have won nine of his 13 outings on the highway. He got hit hard on Tuesday when the Mets got him for six runs on nine hits in three innings, but Moyer?s offense bailed him out with an 8-7 win in 13 innings. The last time Moyer pitched on the road, he blanked the Padres for seven innings in a 1-0 victory.

For his career, Moyer has only seen the Cubs four times and the Phillies are 2-2. Back on April 13, he gave up four runs in five innings of a 6-5 loss.

Zambrano is 7-1 with a 2.96 ERA at Wrigley this season, and the Cubs are 10-4 when he pitches at home, including 6-1 in the last seven. They?ve won eight of his last 10 starts overall, including Tuesday?s 14-9 rout of the Pirates even though Zambrano lasted just 4 1/3 innings after surrendering six runs. Zambrano faced the Phillies back on April 11 and gave up five runs on nine hits in six innings of a 5-3 loss, and Chicago is 4-3 in his seven career starts against Philly.

The under is 11-4 in Moyer?s last 15 starts, 7-1 in his last eight on the road, and 10-1 in his last 11 on the highway against winning teams. Also, in this series, the under is on runs of 10-4-2 at Wrigley Field and 4-1 with Zambrano on the hill against Philadelphia.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chicago White Sox (76-59) at Boston (79-56)

The Red Sox will try to make it a three-game sweep when they send veteran Tim Wakefield (8-8, 3.73 ERA) to the hill against Chicago?s Gavin Floyd (14-6, 3.70) at Fenway Park.

After blanking Chicago 8-0 on Friday, Boston scored an 8-2 win Saturday to move to 4-2 in the six series clashes with the White Sox this season. Going back further, Boston is 11-2 in the last 13 matchups with the White Sox, including 7-1 in the last eight at Fenway.

Boston is on hot streaks of 52-19 run at Fenway Park, 37-15 against A.L. Central teams and 44-13 at Fenway against teams with a losing road record. Meanwhile, Chicago is mired in slumps of 1-6 on the road against winning teams and 6-15 against the A.L. East.

Floyd is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his last three starts and 7-1 in day games this season. The White Sox are 6-1 in his last seven outings overall, including Tuesday?s 8-3 win over the Orioles when Floyd yielded two runs on four hits in eight innings. In his lone start against Boston, Floyd gave up five runs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-5 win back on Aug. 10.

The Red Sox have won Wakefield?s last three starts, including Tuesday?s 7-3 win at the Yankees when the veteran knuckleballer allowed three runs in five innings. Wakefield has won three of his last four starts against the White Sox, including a 14-2 rout a year ago when he blanked them for seven innings, allowing just three hits.

Chicago is 9-1 in Floyd?s last 10 starts on four days of rest and 7-0 in his last seven when he starts the third game of a series. Meanwhile, Boston is 38-18 in Wakefield?s last 56 home starts and 4-1 in his last five against A.L. Central foes.

For the White Sox, the over is on streaks of 6-0-1 on Sundays, 17-5-2 when they face A.L. East competition, 7-0-1 behind Floyd overall and 8-1 when Floyd pitches Game 3 of a series. Also, the over is on runs of 13-4-1 when Wakefield pitches at Fenway, 7-2-1 when he faces A.L. Central teams and 5-1 when he pitches against Chicago.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER

 

[the duke]

Ace-Ace

3-Unit Play. Colorado (-10.5) over Colorado State

We?re siding with the road chalk in this rivalry game out west. Dan Hawkins is in his third year at CU and his son, Cody, leads an offense that should be much stronger with outstanding freshman running back Darrell Scott leading the way. CSU coach Steve Fairchild is making his first start as a head coach at any level and simply doesn?t have the talent to keep up with a rugged Big 12 team

 

[the duke]

Comps

Jeff Alexander

MLB | Aug 31
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh

Pirates Total 7? under +100

1 Unit on Brewers/Pirates UNDER 7.5 (listing Sabathia)
The Under is 8-2-1 in the Brewers last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 10-3-3 in the Brewers last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Under is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 during game 3 of a series, 5-1 in the Pirates last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 15-7-1 in the Pirates last 23 overall. Oddsmakers are begging for us to take the Over but we won't take the bait.


Steve Janus

NCAA-F | Aug 31
Colorado vs. Colorado State

Colorado State +11 +101

Sunday in-state rivals collide with the Colorado State Rams hosting the Colorado Buffaloes. The Buffs own the all-time series record by a 58-19 record, including four of the last five meetings, but in recent years these games have been closer and closer. CSU won a disappointing 3 games last year, while Colorado mustered six wins and a trip to the Independenced Bowl where they would eventually lose to Alabama 24-30. Colorado head coach, Dan Hawkins, is optimistic about the season and he has good reason to be with the success he enjoyed last year. Colorado State should be happy with any improvement they are able to make.

Hawkins managed just two wins in his first year as Colorado's head coach in 2006, but improved to six wins last year and a bowl bid. The big question for the Buffaloes will be if they can continue to improve. That could be difficult for Colorado, who will be starting a lot of young players on offense. There is a solid core of offensive starters returning with 6, but at key skill positions like wide receiver and running back, Colorado is admittedly inexperienced. If there's one thing that could be learned from the 2007 season from the Buffaloes offense it is that Hawkin's offensive game plan can be effective if executed correctly. Last season one of the keys to COlorado's success was avoiding turning the ball over, which will again be a major factor in how they end up in 2008. This team is probably a year or two away from making any real noise in the Big 12. They have a brutal conference schedule to start their season, so their opening two, non-conference games are going to be crucial to this team's confidence.

Defensively, Colorado needs to make vast improvements. Last season saw a Buffaloes team that gave up more than 29 points per game and nearly 390 years of total offense per game, both numbers higher than what their offense was able to put out. On paper, 2008 does not look like it will be any improvement on 2007's numbers with some of their best, veteran players gone for various reasons. Their secondary has some depth and talent, so it should be a source of stregth for the D. Overall 8 of the 11 starters are back from last year. They are still a young team, but hopefully they can take some of their early experience and turn the defense into a strength for this team rather than it's biggest weekness.

Colorado State brings back 7 offensive starters for the 2008 season. They will be trying to improve on what was an average offensive season, at best, in 2007. The Rams managed 25 points per game on 380 yard of total offense, which would be considered pretty good in most conferences, but in the offense-heavy Mountain West Conference, those offensive numbers were not enough to keep this team comeptitive.

A big source of weakness for the Rams last season was the defense. This is a squad that gave up over 414 yards of total offense and 30 points per game last season. It's quite obvious that if these numbers don't improve dramatically, Colorado State is not going to be competitive yet again this year. Only 5 starters from last year's defense return, which doesn't have to be a bad thing, especially after what last year's team was able to accomplish, but 6 new starters will need to gel with the rest of the team quickly for 2008 to be any better than 2007.

Make no mistake, neither of these teams will be mistaken for a BCS contender. Honestly, neither will probably be any threat in their respective conferences. Colorado is the better team on paper here, but not by a huge margin. Rivalry games seem to bring out the best in players. We are recommending the Colorado State Rams +11 to defend their home turf and win or keep this game very close.

Prediction: Colorado State 31, Colorado 28



Dave Price

MLB | Aug 31
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs -181
1 Unit PLAY on Chicago Cubs -181 (listing Zambrano and Moyer)
The Cubs are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss so I like them to bounce back big today behind the Big Z. The Cubs are 50-17 in their last 67 home games and 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Cubs are a perfect 8-0 in Zambrano's last 8 starts during game 4 of a series and 5-0 in Zambrano's last 5 starts vs. National League East. The Phillies are only 3-7 in their last 10 road games. Take the Cubbies at home behind their ace.



Jimmy Boyd

MLB | Aug 31
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays +100

1 Unit PLAY on Toronto Blue Jays +100 (listing Halladay and Pettitte)
The Blue Jays are an impressive 16-5 in Halladay's last 21 starts vs. the Yankees and even 9-4 in Halladay's last 13 road starts vs. the Yankees. We'll put our money behind one of the best pitcher's in baseball here. The Yankees are only 4-10 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record and just 1-5 in Pettitte's last 6 starts. The Blue Jays are 5-1 in Halladay's last 6 road starts and 75-36 in Halladay's last 111 starts overll. Take the Jays.

 

[the duke]

Comps

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians Aug 31 2008 1:05PM
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Reason: The Mariners have won 5 of their last 6 games but today they lose to the Indians. The Mariners are 4-8 in their last 12 vs. AL Central opponents. The Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Silva take the mound this afternoon and the Mariners are 5-16 in his last 21 starts. Seattle has lost 7 of his last 9 road starts. The Indians are 16-6 in their last 22 games. Cleveland has won 8 of their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. Cleveland has won 2 of Jackson's 3 starts. Cleveland has the edge on the mound and won't lose a 3rd in a row. Play on the Cleveland Indians -



Marc Lawrence

Game: Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres Aug 31 2008 4:05PM
Prediction: San Diego Padres

Reason: Play On: San Diego w/Peavy vs Francis
Note: The Padres close out their weekend series with the Rockies when Jake Peavy takes on Jeff Francis in San Diego. Peavy enters todays game knowing he is 14-5 in his career team starts at home during the month of August. He also owns a super-sharp 1.54 ERA at home this season, nearly three full runs better than his 4.51 ERA on the road. With that, we'll stay at home with Peavy and the Padres here today.



Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees (MLB) - Aug 31, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -108 Toronto Blue Jays Pick Title: FREE PLAY
FREE PLAY on Toronto Blue Jays -108 (listing Halladay and Pettitte) The Blue Jays are an impressive 16-5 in Halladay's last 21 starts vs. the Yankees and even 9-4 in Halladay's last 13 road starts vs. the Yankees. We'll put our money behind one of the best pitcher's in baseball here. The Yankees are only 4-10 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record and just 1-5 in Pettitte's last 6 starts. The Blue Jays are 5-1 in Halladay's last 6 road starts and 75-36 in Halladay's last 111 starts overall. Take the Jays.





Big Al McMordie

New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins (MLB) - Aug 31, 2008 1:10 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -120 New York Mets

At 1:10pm our complimentary selection is on the New York Mets over the Florida Marlins. The Cinderella season of the Florida Marlins is pretty much coming to an end. With a month to go, the Marlins are behind in the NL East Division by six games, with two teams in front of them, both of which are loaded with talent. So, it's unlikely that both the Phillies and today's opponent, the Mets, will fold up and go away in September. But whatever the outcome, Florida has no doubt exceeded everyone's expectations as at the beginning of the season most people figured the Marlins would be down in the cellar with the Nationals. They are a pretty young team and if they can keep some of their core players together, the future may be bright. Pedro Martinez is definitely not a young player, and certainly not the dominating starter he used to be a few years ago, but he is determined to play a significant role for the Mets down the stretch. The team seems to rally behind him lately when he pitches, and he has not been wanting for run support. In his last four starts, the Mets have scored a total of 22 runs for Martinez although they have only won two of those games. But Martinez loves pitching during the day as in four afternoon starts this season he is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.57. The Marlins would love to win a game for lefthander Scott Olsen but that just doesn't seem to be in the cards right now. Since the All-Star break, the 24-year-old has had eight starts, with Florida winning the first of those on July 19, and then laying a goose egg so far since then. This will be a very tough spot for him to get his second post-break win. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

 

[the duke]

Comps

3G-Sports

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs (MLB) - Aug 31, 2008 2:20 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -183 Chicago Cubs

Phillies at Chicago Cubs 2:20pm ET A day after ending the Chicago Cubs' long winning streak, the Philadelphia Phillies would like to make sure their sudden bullpen problems are over, too. It seems likely both teams will have to rely on their relievers Sunday when the Cubs try to pull off a series win over the Phillies and finish August without losing back-to-back games. While Chicago (85-51) will start Carlos Zambrano, who is pitching through a 'tired' arm, 45-year-old Phillies left-hander Jamie Moyer has not lasted past seven innings in 13 straight starts and is coming off his shortest outing since 2005.
That means Philadelphia (74-62) is likely to turn to its bullpen Sunday, and that had been a shaky proposition this week. No relief corps in the NL has a lower ERA (3.22) than the Phillies, but that group was saddled with the loss in three consecutive games heading into Saturday. Philadelphia's bullpen allowed 10 runs and 12 hits - four were homers - in 7 1-3 innings during that skid. Look for the Cubs to get the rubber game of this series. Play on the CHICAGO CUBS


Jeff Benton

Sunday, we?ll return to baseball -- where I've hit four freebies in a row -- and play the underdog Marlins to get it done against the Mets at home.

I know Florida is struggling, as is starting pitcher Scott Olsen ? the Marlins have lost seven straight games behind Olsen, and they?re 0-3 in his three starts against New York this year. However, I trust Olsen a lot more than I trust the Mets bullpen ? hell, I?d imagine the players themselves don?t trust the bullpen. Because of that, I?m willing to take some plus money back here, because there?s little doubt in my mind that New York?s bullpen, which blew another one last night, will be heavily involved in this game.

That?s because Mets starter Pedro Martinez is nothing more than a six inning pitcher anymore ? he?s lasted more than six innings just three times in 14 starts, and his max outing this year is seven innings (twice). His last time out at Philadelphia, Martinez was spotted a 7-0 lead, gave up five runs in five innings, departed with a 7-5 lead and then watched as New York?s bullpen imploded (the Mets lost 8-7 in extra innings). Including that outing, Martinez has a 6.75 ERA in his last two starts overall and a 6.46 ERA in nine outings on the road, and the Mets are 3-6 when he pitches away from home and 2-4 in his last six overall.

Also, going back to 2005, the Mets have lost five of Martinez?s last six starts against the Marlins, including a 5-4 setback in Florida way back on April 1 (Pedro gave up four runs in 3 1/3 innings before leaving with an injury)

Look for the Marlins? bats to wake up in this game and take it to a future Hall-of-Famer and the shaky relief corps that?s behind him.

(Based on a 1♦ to 10♦ rating system)

3♦ FLORIDA MARLINS



Matt Rivers

Sunday take the Royals in Comerica.

Armando Galarraga has had a breakout season and is probably a legitimate second starter, if not an ace on a weaker team. The righty should be fine here against the fairly weak Royals but Gil Meche at this undedog price is just fine with me.

Jim Leyland's Tigers have a ton of talent but have underachieved with the best of them this season. To think that Mags, Cabrera, Guillen, Sheffield, Granderson and the Tigers never were in playoff contention is extremely hard to believe but it is true and for good reason as they have just played terrible baseball for almost the entire season. Sure these guys are always dangerous and a team to back when getting a pretty penny but to be laying this number against a quality hurler in Meche is a big much.

Detroit's bullpen is still awful and unless Galarraga really spins a gem then the Royals should be able to do a little something with the bats. Kansas City is far from the 1917 Yankees but DeJesus, Aviles, Buck and the fellas are a decent enough underdog in spots like this and against a piece of garbage Tiger team I will back this road dog and take my chances.


Tony Weston

OK, so maybe Bo Pelini can part waters. He may as well have considering the beat down Nebraska laid on Western Michigan yesterday. Yeah, we were off, but that?s fine. That?s not getting to me one bit.

We?re switching gears here and going to the diamond in Detroit as we?re taking the Royals over the Tigers today.

Sure, both teams have been equally horrible lately, but the Royals have been pretty strong against the Tigers this season. The teams have played each other 14 times this season with the Royals holding an 8-6 advantage.

After winning six straight against the Tigers, the Royals lost five consecutive matchups to their AL Central rival. However, over their last three meetings Kansas City is 2-1 against Detroit.

Most importantly, however, is what the Royals have done in MoTown. In five games in Detroit, the Royals are 4-1, including a 13-3 beat down last night.

Kansas City will continue its winning ways in Detroit and get over on the Tigers. Go with the Royals on the road today.


3♦ ROYALS (On a 1-5♦ Scale)

 

[the duke]

Comps

Kentucky at LOUISVILLE (-3')
Sports Gambling Hotline

Even with both schools breaking in new signal-callers, we will play this rivalry game to sail OVER the posted price.

Last year, the teams combined for 74 points, while the total in this one is significantly lower than last year, we still feel this game will find its way OVER the posted total.

Louisville's defense is ALWAYS an achilles heel, and last year saw the Redbirds allow a whopping 25 touchdown passes, while picking off just 7 passes all season long!

It may take a while for the teams to get things rolling, but once they do, we like the points to start adding up.

We say play the OVER in this Bluegrass Battle royale!

2♦ OVER


Colorado vs. COLORADO STATE (+11) - at Denver
Karl Garrett

The G-Man realizes there is a reason the linesmakers, and the betting public believe there is a double-digit difference between these schools, but I just don't feel that is true.

New Colorado State head coach Steve Fairchild has been on Sonny Lubick's staff, and certainly knows a thing or two about this Rocky Mountain Rivalry, and I have a feeling he is not going to let his team get embarrassed in this opening game spot.

7 of the last 8 series meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the last 4 have been decided by just 4 points or less!

The underdog in this series is on a 9-3 spread run, and the G-Man is just having a hard time believing the Buffaloes are going to blow this team out.

Let's make it a small play on the underdog Rams to to keep this one a lot closer than people expect.

Take the points!

2♦ COLORADO STATE


Colorado State (+11') vs. Colorado, at Denver Bobby Maxwell

We go with Colorado State to keep it tight with in-state rival Colorado.

The Buffs are the more talented team in this series, but we're going to play Colorado State to hang tough as this rivalry always seems to always come down to the final possession.

This game has been decided by seven points or less in each of the last six years, including last year when Colorado got a 31-28 win in OT, covering as a 2 1/2-point favorite. The underdog was 5-0 ATS and 8-1 ATS before last year's game. Also leaning our favor is the fact Colorado State is 6-3 ATS in the last nine series clashes.

Colorado was inconsistent last year and finished 2-5 SU and ATS in the last seven games. They have sophomore QB Cody Hawkins under center but he had trouble finding his team when he threw the ball, tossing 19 TDs and 17 INTs.

Colorado State has got some experienced runners in the backfield, including Kyle Bell who led the Mountain West Conference in 2005 with 1,288 yards rushing. They've also got a big target at TE in Kory Sperry who had three TDs in two-plus games to start last season before injuring his ACL.

The Rams have first-year head coach Steve Fairchild on the sidelines and they will come out fired up for him in this one. The teams are playing at Invesco Field in Denver so there isn't a home-field advantage for either one.

But if it goes like always, this one will be close to the end. Grab the points and play Colorado State.

3♦ COLORADO STATE





St. Louis (-120) at HOUSTON Drew Gordon

I've told you before in this spot, that the days of Wandy Rodriguez being a lock at Minute Maid Park are over. True, he dominated the Reds in his last start, but let's not get carried away with locking down a below average Cincy team that's already thrown in the towel. Instead, focus on the fact that Rodriguez got reached for 10 runs in just 7 innings in the two home starts prior to that one(Cincinnati and Arizona respectively)! Note, Rodriguez is 1-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 9 career games (8 starts) against St. Louis.

Not only that, but he's being opposed by one of the Cards better pitchers on the road in Todd Wellemeyer, who's 4-0 with a 3.01 ERA away this season! Look for Wellemeyer to be highly focused in this one, as he's coming off an ugly/critical loss to the rival Brewers, and I expect he'll more than make up for it in this one. He's also 1-0 with a 4.35 ERA in 8 career games (2 starts) against Houston.

Finally and most importantly, the Cardinals know damn well they cannot afford to keep losing games with the Brewers surging (and now tied with the Phillies for 2nd in the NL wild card). Larussa has publicly admitted this game is critical to stop the bleeding, and I expect the Cardinals to respond accordingly this afternoon. Also of note, St. Louis is 6-2 in their last 8 games following a loss! Redbirds roll today at Minute Maid!

Take St. Louis behind Wellemeyer over Houston and Rodriguez in this MLB match up.

3♦ ST. LOUIS

 

[the duke]

Comps

James Patrick Sports

Mariners vs. Indians 1:05 p.m. est.
Our complimentary selection in American League Baseball action is #918 Cleveland Indians behind southpaw Zack Jackson.



Greg Daraban

921 Toronto (68-66) at 922 New York Yankees (72-62)

Halladay vs Pettitte

Final Game of the series . Yesterday Toronto won 7-6 The Yanks have dug themselves quite a hole. Today Halladay goes and he has been the best Blue Jay pitcher the last few seasons 16-9. Toronto wins again

Take 921 Toronto


Jack Clayton

Sport: MLB
Game: Mets at Marlins
Date/Time: 8/31/2008 5:00PM EST
Pick: Marlins



Tony Stevens

Colorado vs. Colorado State (NCAAF) - Aug 31, 2008 7:30 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 11/-101 Colorado State

Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Underdog is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings


Gregg Price

Kentucky vs. Louisville (NCAAF) - Aug 31, 2008 3:30 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 3/103 Kentucky

Taking the underdog Wildcats here. Look for Kentucky to be pumped up for this big, inter-state rivalry game.

 

[the duke]

Sebastian

20* Oakland
20* St Louis
20* atl/was under
20* colo/san deigo under
20* sf/cin under

Steam Play
100* Toronto

 

[the duke]

THE POWER INDEX


Kentucky +4 over Louisville* (Sunday)
We really have to wonder if the good times are temporarily over for Louisville. The personnel losses are huge for the Cardinals on both offense and defense. Kentucky must replace a great QB, but the Wildcats look to be the more experienced team in this one. Looking for the outright upset here.



Colorado** -11 over Colorado State (Sunday)
OK, I have to tell you that I am a Buff alum. I also need to mention that Colorado State always gets sky high for this game. Still, I am taking Colorado this time around. The matchups heavily favor the Buffaloes, as CSU is weak on run defense. The Rams also struggle to protect their QB and that guy will be inexperienced and figures to be on the run for most of the game.

 

[the duke]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Sun (CFB) Kentucky
Sun (MLB) D-Backs



ARMVIN SPORTS

COLORADO at COLORADO STATE Under 60



HONDO

Still dazed and damp from his triple- flusher Friday night, ascended from the deep with the Phillies yesterday to elevate the earnings to 545 dalrymples.

Today, he'll try to get in the flow with the Meta mucils - 10 units on Pedro.

 

[the duke]

John Fina

August 31, 2008

Selection: St Louis Cardinals (-120)

Take the St Louis Cardinals!




Brian Marshall

August 31, 2008

Game: New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins

Plays On: New York Mets (-120)

Take the New York Mets!



Tony Mathews

August 31, 2008.

Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians

Selection: Seattle Mariners (+130)


Take Seattle Mariners!

 

[the duke]

Comps

Vegas Experts

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Roy Halladay sure likes to make the oddsmakers pay for their mistakes. Following a win in his last outing at Tampa Bay, Toronto is 5 for 5 when Halladay is an underdog. Two of those wins came over his last three starts. The other start over that span was a 14-3 massacre of the Yankees. Needless to say, this is a very attractive price on a pitcher that is 3-0 vs. the Yankees since June.

Play on: Toronto



Jack Reynolds

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

The Toronto Blue Jays dealt the Yankees a severe Blow on Saturday with a 7-6 defeat. The Yankees need a win in every game they play if they have any hopes of Post Season Play. Roy Halliday ( 16-9 2.69 ) will start for the Blue Jays inn the finale of this 3 game series. Andy Pettitte ( 13-10 4.37 ) will take the mound for the Yankees. This is an Encore of a game played in Toronto 2 weeks ago, with Halliday winning and defeating Pettitte and the Yankees. Halliday still in the running for the Cy Young Award will repeat his encore performance with a another Victory over the Yankees.

Take Toronto over New York this afternoon in the House that Ruth built.


New York Mets @ Florida Marlins

Florida is an excellent pitcher's park. Notice the Marlins average over 5 runs per game on the road, but 4 runs per game at home. A pair of decent pitchers go here. Pedro Martinez still has workable stuff, and in his last three starts he's fanned 18 in 19 innings with only 4 walks. Florida is on a 6-2-2 run under the total with an up and down offense. Florida starter Scott Olsen certainly loves this park: He has an ERA of 5.7 on the road, but 2.98 at home, where opponents hit just .238 off him. The last loss dropped the Marlins six games behind the Mets, so this is a key game. "We've got to play and win our games," said Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez. "There's no other way to put it. Whether the word is urgency, a must, or a need. Whatever you call it, we've got to win some games." Oddsmakers have made this total too high.

Play the Mets/Marlins under the total.

 

[CHUGGER]

northcoast marquee-colo-11 // reg opin. lou-3 !!

 

[kozski61]

Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, August 31, 2008
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209 Colorado -11 7:30 EST




seabass football

50* over 55 Louisville/UK
20* Colorado -11




Strike Point Sports MLB

3 units each
Atlanta -135
Minnesota -150


mike rose
atl/wash under 8 1/2 (-15) 3*
colo/sd over 7 (-15) 3*
minn/oak under 8 (-10) 3 *




J.R.Miller

Major League Baseball:
NATIONALS +129 over Braves (Balester-Jurrjens)
Brewers at Pirates OVER 7.5 -115 (Sabathia-Karstens)
PADRES -150 over Rockies (Peavy-Francis)
Mariners at Indians OVER 10.0 +105 (RowlandSmith-Jackson)
REDSOX -144 over Whitesox (Wakefield-Floyd)
Orioles at Rays OVER 9.0 -103 (Burres-Shields)
Rangers at Angels OVER 9.0 -105 (Millwood-Lackey)

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness

Weekend Wipeout Winner (85-58 in MLB since June 30)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the NY Mets at 1:10 ET. The Mets' bullpen let the team down again last night, allowing the game-tying run in the 8th and the game-winner in the 9th, on a bases-loaded walk. The team's regular closer Billy Wagner is currently on the DL and the Mets have blown 11 of 26 save opportunities since the All-Star break. New York's bullpen has a 5.69 ERA since July 21 and with Pedro on the mound this afternoon (he's averaged about 5 1/2 innings per start in '08), the bullpen will likely be called on again. That's the bad news. However, there is plenty of good news here. First of all, Pedro is more than capable of a good effort but more importantly, the Mets get to face Florida lefty Scott Olsen, who has been in a "free-fall" for quite some time now. Olsen "turned some heads" with a solid 2006 season in which he went 12-10. However, he pitched poorly in 2007 (10-15 with a 5.81 ERA) plus had some off-the-filed issues, as well. Olsen seemed to have put his troubles behind him at the start of '08 though, going 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in his first nine starts (team was 8-1). However, things have not gone well since. He's 2-7 with a 4.99 ERA over his last 18 starts, with the Marlins going just 4-14. Olsen won his first start back from the All Star break but is winless since, going 0-4 with a 5.27 ERA in seven starts (team is 0-7). Specifically to this matchup, he's faced the Mets three times in '08 already, allowing 21 hits and 11 ERs in just 15.2 innings, going 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA (team is 0-3). That gives him a career mark vs the Mets of 1-4 with a 4.532 ERA in 11 starts (team is 3-8). More bad news comes Florida's way, as the Mets are a solid 26-16 vs left-handers this year, averaging 4.9 RPG. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Fla Marlins.



Las Vegas Insider-MLB (45-26 w/MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Padres at 4:05 ET. One can always make a case of going against the Padres in '08 and team ace Jake Peavy has suffered this year because of the team's lack of productivity. San Diego is batting .248 as a team in 2008 (27th of 30 clubs) and only the Nationals are scoring fewer runs this year than the Padres' average of 3.89 per game. Peavy owns a 2.84 ERA on the season but is just 9-9 on the year, with San Diego going only 10-13 in his starts. Peavy's home ERA of 1.54 tops the majors but yet he's just 5-4 at home in 12 starts, where the Padres are only 6-6. Some may remember that Peavy was San Diego's starter against the Rockies in last year's one-game wild card playoff game last Oct 1 at Coors. Peavy was far from sharp in that game (6.1 IP / 10 hits / 6 ERs), as the Rockies won in thrilling fashion, 9-8. This year, Peavy's pitched very well in three starts vs the Rockies (2.70 ERA) but he's got nothing to show for it (he's 0-2 and the teamis 0-3). So why should things be any different today? Maybe they won't but I sure like Peavy in this spot. He's been given an extra day off rest, as he threw 121 pitches in his last start, when the Padres beat the D'backs (with Haren on the mound) 4-2 to open the week (Monday). The Rockies have struggled all year on the road, going 28-43 (minus-$1,047) and they are only 21-35 vs righties away from Coors Field. That includes a 3-10 mark in away day games, where they've averaged a meager 3.7 RPG. Starting for Colorado is lefty Jeff Francis, who is pitching better of late, with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts (he's 1-0 and the team is 3-0). However, he's had a rough season, going 4-8 with a 5.36 ERA in 21 starts (team is 8-13). That includes a 5.26 road ERA in 11 starts, with the Rockies going 4-7. He's never had too much luck vs San Diego either, as his lifetime mark is 5-10 with a 5.42 ERA in 17 starts (team is 7-10). I'm counting on a great effort from Peavy and the Padres giving him enough support for a win. Las Vegas Insider on the SD Padres.