Cajun-Sports
CFB Executive Club Report
3:30 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
LOUISVILLE -3 over Kentucky
It?s the ?Blue Grass? rivalry on Sunday when the Cardinals host the Wildcats as both teams open their respective seasons. The Kentucky Governor's Cup and state bragging rights will be at stake in this heated non-conference clash. These teams met in Week 3 last year, with Kentucky notching a 40-34 win thanks to a 57-yard pass in the final seconds.
Kentucky returned to the Music Bowl last season and again capped their season with a victory. Now, they have an uphill battle to repeat last season's success, considering the departures of several key veteran leaders.
Louisville is coming off an uncharacteristic 6-6 season in which the Cardinals missed out on a bowl game completely for the first time since 1997. Louisville fans are cautiously optimistic for a much better season in the second year under coach Steve Kragthorpe.
The Kentucky offense is attempting to replace FIVE All-SEC talents, including quarterback Andre Woodson. Now, thanks to the dismissal of junior quarterback Curtis Pulley from the team in the offseason, sophomore Mike Hartline, with all 6 of his career college passes, is in line for the gig. Beyond WR Dicky Lyons there isn't much proven talent at the skill positions
The Kentucky defense was gashed for nearly 30 ppg last year and surrendered 190 ypg on the ground. The hope in Lexington is that with eight starters returning, this will be a more seasoned and cohesive unit, but if their impotent offense can not sustain drives, the defense will be on the field far too long and wilt down the stretch.
Louisville senior quarterback Hunter Cantwell has the unenviable task of trying to fill the shoes of departed legend Brian Brohm, but Cantwell is a 5th-year senior, has starting experience, and is being mentored by new offensive coordinator Jeff Brohm, brother of Brian. The Cardinals are thin at WR, but have a lot of talent in the backfield with Bilal Powell and Brock Bolen.
The Cardinals defense was certainly in need of being overhauled in the offseason, and they got it, as the school hired Ron English as the new defensive coordinator. English was an excellent DC at Michigan, and we expect him to have an immediate positive impact on the stop unit here. English and his defense will look to make life miserable for Kentucky?s green, sophomore QB.
It was the tough, late loss to the Wildcats last year that started the downward spiral for Louisville and ruined what was expected to be a very good year. The Cards will be out to settle that score on Sunday, and our number-crunching tells us that should be the case, as we have a strong dichotomy of revenge angles in play here. Kentucky is a poor 0-8 SU (-15.5 ppg) & 0-8 ATS (-11 ppg) as a single-digit underdog/pick ?em vs. opponents playing with revenge, while Louisville is 5-0 SU & ATS at home playing to avenge a favorite SU loss.
Some may scratch their head and wonder if the wrong team is favored here, as the Wildcats are off a Bowl season, while Louisville stayed home. While it may seem backwards for a team off a Bowl to be an underdog to a team that didn?t go bowling the previous year, the dogs have been destroyed under the conditions in an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
In Game 1, play AGAINST an underdog/pick ?em off a Bowl game last season (not an ATS win of 10+ points) vs. an opponent in its first contest off a regular season game (not a SU loss of 2+ points) last season.
Teams qualifying for these conditions are 0-15 SU & ATS, losing by nearly 24 ppg and failing to cover by a whopping 18 ppg! Kentucky is next in line.
The Cardinals also qualify for one of our NCAA Football POWER SYSTEMS, which advises:
Play ON a home favorite of 3-42? points before a home game with less than 6 days rest and not off a conference road favorite SU win vs. an opponent not off a lined SU win.
This will be a short week for Louisville, as they return home next Saturday for a game with Tennessee Tech, but they should be completely focused here, as other teams in this spot have gone 18-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by more than 11 ppg on average.
Louisville may have been unable to live up to last year?s high expectations and faltered under the pressure, but now that the lofty pre-season expectations of 2007 have given way to predictions of a second-tier finish in the Big East, the Cardinals should thrive and we look for them bust out of the gates here with a big SU & ATS win over the Wildcats.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: LOUISVILLE 34 KENTUCKY 21
