Sunday Service Plays

[the duke]

BEN BURNS

NFL

UNDER pats/eagles (48 or better)

Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Game Time: 11/25/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Patriots and Eagles to finish UNDER the total. As you know, the Patriots have been having their way with teams each and every week. They've been covering the spread virtually every week while seeing eight of 10 games eclipse the total. In addition to causing them to be favored by greater than three touchdowns, it has caused the over/under line to be extremely high. With two excellent defenses, I believe that its too high. The Eagles, who will have to rely on their defense more than ever with a banged-up McNabb (gametime decision) and/or AJ Feely at quarteraback, rank in the top 10 in the league in terms of both points allowed and total yards allowed. The Eagles' defense has been particularly stingy on the road, where they have allowed a mere 16.4 points and 262.2 yards per game. Despite the recent bad press, Andy Reid is still a good coach and I expect him to have a gameplan in place in an attempt to avoid getting embarrassed like the rest of New England's opponents. Although the defense has played well on the road, their offense has managed only 17.6 points per game on the road. With or without McNabb, they'll have to be pretty lucky to get that many against a New England defense which is allowing a miniscule 11.2 points per game. You'll probably remember these teams facing each other in the Super Bowl. Although Super Bowls are typically higher scoring than regular season games, the over/under line was only 46 and the teams combined for only 45 points. Yes, the Patriots offense is performing at a much higher level. However, they're defense is also at least as good and the Eagles offense isn't as good as it was at that time. That was the third series meetings since 1999 with the two regular season meetings producing just 41 and 33 points. Despite last week's game finishing above the total, the UNDER remains a profitable 11-2 the last 13 times that the Pats played in the month of November. I expect this evening's game to be lower scoring than expected once again with the final combined score finishing beneath the generous number.

*Blue Chip
Under Pats/Eagles


BEARS (-3 or better)

Game: Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears Game Time: 11/25/2007 4:15:00 PM Prediction: Chicago Bears Reason: I'm laying the points with CHICAGO. The Broncos are coming off back to back impressive wins. However, this is an extremely difficult spot. Not only is Chicago a very tough place to play but the Broncos are playing on a short week, having played on Monday Night. That's worth mentioning as we find them at 1-5 ATS the last six times they played with six or less day's rest in between games and because they got smoked 44-7 by the Lions when coming off this season's earlier Monday Night performance. Including that embarrassing loss, the Broncos are just 4-14-1 ATS their last 19 games against teams from the NFC North. Despite coming up short vs. the Dolphins earlier this month, the Bears remain a healthy 10-5 ATS their last 15 home games played in the month of November. Although they came up short at Seattle last week, the Bears' offense showed real signs of life, as they gained 345 yards and matched a season high with 107 on the ground. Grossman returned and was 24-for-37 for 266 yards. I expect them to build off that performance vs. a Denver defense which is allowing a high 26.7 points per game on the road. The Bears' defense certainly hasn't played as well as it has in year's past. However, the unit still has a lot of pride and I believe that they are capable of rising to the occasion for this "must win game" on their home field. Look for them to do just that as the Bears play their best game of the season, keep their slim playoff chances alive and improve to 15-4-1 ATS their last 20 games against teams from the AFC West.

*Personal Favorite
Chicago Bears



3 game Executive Report

PANTHERS

Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Game Time: 11/25/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with CAROLINA. Both teams have under-achieved this season and both come in with identical 4-6 records. The Panthers are playing at home and have dominated the series. Yet, due largely to the public's love affair with the Saints, New Orleans is laying a field goal on the road. I feel that gives us terrific value with the Panthers, who have gone 8-2 the last 10 series meetings with both losses coming by only a field goal. The Panthers defense has been decent, allowing 21.2 points per game (Saints allow 24.6) and the offense should get a major boost with the expected return of star wideout Steve Smith. Looking ahead to next week and we find that the Panthers have no reason to "look ahead" as they'll be hosting the 49ers. Conversely, while I don't expect them to get caught looking past this important game either, its still worth mentioning that the Saints have a date with division-leading Tampa on deck. In addition to dominating this rivalry, the Panthers have always thrived as underdogs in this range. In fact, they're a highly profitable 12-4-2 ATS the last 18 times that they were underdogs of four points or less. I expect those numbers to improve this afternoon.


49ERS

Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 11/25/2007 4:05:00 PM Prediction: San Francisco 49ers Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN FRANCISCO. As poorly as the 49ers have played, I don't feel that they deserve to be double-digit underdogs to division rival Arizona. Two of the 49ers last three losses have come by four points or less and they defeated the Cardinals by three points when the teams met at San Francisco back in September. That marked the fourth straight game in this series (and sixth in seven) that was decided by 10 points or less, five of those games being decided by a touchdown or less. Yes, the Cardinals won again last week. However, they were also outgained 396-247 in the process. Additionally, they're a terrible 8-19-1 ATS (9-19 SU) the past 28 times they were coming off consecutive victories. Look for them to have their hands full again this afternoon as the 49ers deliver an inspired effort and hang within the big number

BENGALS

Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Game Time: 11/25/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Titans have come back to earth and have gone 0-2 SU/ATS their last two games, getting outscored by a 52-33 margin. In addition to playing back to back road games, the Titans are also playing on a short week, as last week's game came on Monday night. Note that the Titans, currently listed as very slight favorites, are a money-burning 4-9-1 ATS (5-9 SU) the past 14 times they were listed as road favorites of three points or less. While the Titans are banged-up and on the decline, the Bengals have been showing signs of improvement. Two weeks ago, they won at Baltimore. Last week, they lost to the Cardinals. However, a closer look reveals that they actually held an edge in first downs, time of possession and a significant 396-247 edge in total yards. Its been a disappointing season for the Bengals. However, they've got the better offense (Bengals average 24.6 points while Titans average 19.8) of these teams and their defense has allowed fewer points that Tennessee's defense the past two weeks. They've got a lot of pride and they don't like the Titans. The last time the teams met, Bengals QB Carson Palmer was 27-of-33 for 272 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, en route to a 31-23 Cincinnati victory. Look for Palmer to bounce back from last week's multi-interception performance with another big effort here as the Bengals improve to 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 games played in the month of November

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness

NFL 24* (11-2 FB run since Nov 16!)

My 24* play is on the SD Chargers at 4:15 ET. For all their problems in '07, the Chargers are still very much alive in the pathetic AFC West. They are tied with the Broncos for first at 5-5 and have already beaten them in Denver (hosts Denver in Week 16). San Diego has also played well at home this year, going 4-1 SU and ATS. The Ravens on the other hand, are a mess! Last week's crushing loss to the Browns (called back onto the field for an OT period in which they eventually lost), was their fourth straight defeat (0-4 ATS). After a 4-2 start, Baltimore's postseason hopes are all but over, after going 13-3 in '06. Boller starts for the injured McNair this week and neither QB can play (Boller was sacked six times last week with a fumble and two INTs). McGahee has run for 100 yards in three of the last four games but as mentioned, Baltimore is 0-4 (team is 1-9 ATS on the year!). The offense just can't finish off drives, as Baltimore owns the NFL's worst red-zone TD perecntage in the league (9-of-28 or 32.1%). The defense still has talent, as the rush D ranks 2nd (78.0 YPG) but the 2ndy is hurting with Reed (back) and Rolle (illness) listed as probable plus McAlister (knee) listed as questionable. SD's Tomlinson has been unhappy for most of the year but he's still an awesome talent. QB Rivers has been a problem, as he's followed an excellent 2006 (22-9 ratio / 92.0 rating) with an 11-12 ratio and a QB rating of 76.5. He's accounted for 17 of the team's 18 turnovers, as the rest of the Chargers are almost turnover-free, which is why the team is plus-nine in TO margin (3rd-best). Baltimore by the way, is on pace for franchise-record 41 giveaways and is minus-nine in TO margin (3rd-worst). Let's not forget that last year in Week 4, the Ravens edged the Chargers in Baltimore, scoring nine points in the game's last 3:12, for a 16-13 win! The Ravens are just what the doctor ordered for San Diego.

24*
San Diego Chargers

 

[the duke]

MARC LAWRENCE NFL PICKS

4* Houston + 3 Buy A Extra 1/2 Point
3* Buffalo + 8
3* Baltimore + 9

 

[the duke]

Robert Ferringo


NFL SELECTIONS

5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 36.0 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Jaguars have been a fantastic ?over? play in the 34.0 to 36.0 total range, covering nearly 80 percent in this range over their last 20. The Jaguars have the 27th ranked pass defense in the league and just lost their defensive leader, Mike Peterson. Without Peterson and Marcus Stroud the Bills should have some room to breath. Further, there is a system at work here that has hit at a 73-percent clip over the past five years that we?re going to play.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #203 Buffalo (+7.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The road team is 5-2 ATS in this series and Buffalo has covered four out of five. They got embarrassed last week by the Patriots, but they are an amazing 14-1 ATS in games after playing New England. Jacksonville has some injury issues and I?m not confident enough in their offense as a whole to go out and put up huge numbers. Also, Buffalo is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.

3-Unit Play. Take #217 San Francisco (+10.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Cardinals are not used to being posted as this large of a favorite and I don?t think I trust them to cover this large number. This is a pretty intense rivalry and this is just too many points. Arizona has been winning lately, but not blowing anyone out. The road team has covered four straight, the Cards are 3-10 as a home favorite of 3.5 or more, and if Arizona can lose to Vinny Testaverde and Carolina at home they can lose to Trent Dilfer and San Fran.

3-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+3.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 25)
Neither team will be able to stop one another so the value is in the points. Cleveland is like Arizona - they've been winning and playing a lot of close games. I think that Houston has regained its mojo with Andre Johnson back and if they could handle New Orleans' offense last week they can get the better of the Browns, who are due for a letdown after back-to-back grueling divisional games.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 New York Giants (-7) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
Here is a case of just taking the better team. I think that the G-Men have toughened up against the run and that they can defend well enough to take away what the Vikings want to do.

 

[the duke]

David Malinsky

6* TAMPA BAY over WASHINGTON

Time to get this one up earlier than usual so that you have some time to lock in a decent -3.


Last week we cashed an easy 4* with Tampa Bay in a matchup vs. Atlanta in which we noted how unusual the line was for the setting ? the Buccaneers led in every key statistical category. Now fast forward to this week. The Bucs gain more yards per Rush Attempt than the Redskins and allow less; gain more yards per Pass Attempt and allow less; have a higher Passing Rating on offense and have allowed a lower Passing Rating on defense. And yet there is much more to this one, because a lot of the Washington numbers are not even close to the current realities.


Earlier in the season we wrote about the Redskin secondary, which was arguably the most talented in the league, with four first-round draft choices starting. And not too long ago the defense was near the top in the NFL in many categories. Not anymore. Having lost Carlos Rogers and Sean Taylor in recent weeks this unit is just a shadow of its formal self, and the numbers point it out. The defense has been absolutely shredded in the last four outings, and yes, part of that was going up against New England and Dallas. But they also struggled vs. the Jets (allowing them their season high of yards) and the Eagles, who range up 33 points and 379 yards in Washington. Last week we saw Dallas attack the deep middle with Terrell Owens throughout the game, and there was not much that the Redskins could do about it ? not only has the talent level been lessened, but also the experience, which means that Gregg Williams has his hands tied in terms of blitz packages and other coverage schemes. They got to Tony Romo one time in 33 attempts.


This Washington flaw opens the door for Jeff Garcia, Ike Hilliard and Joey Galloway to have their way here. While getting little publicity Garcia has put together a 96.6 passer rating, completing 64.7 percent of his throws with an excellent ratio of 11 touchdowns vs. only three interceptions, and Hilliard and Galloway have combined for 87 catches. And while the Washington defensive numbers are better than they should be because of all of the time that Rogers and Taylor were playing, the Tampa Bay offense is better than what appears on paper, now that Michael Pittman is back in the lineup again. Pittman ran for 44 yards on 10 carries and also caught a couple of passes in last week?s easy win at Atlanta, and he can combine with Earnest Graham (back-to-back games of 100 plus yards) to create an outstanding one-two punch.


There are no issues with the Tampa defensive numbers ? the Bucs are legitimately that good, especially with rookie Gaines Adams already becoming the kind of pass rusher they were hoping that he would be. They can have their way with a struggling Washington OL that not only lost Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas early in the season, but may be without Todd Wade here, after he injured his right knee against Dallas on Sunday. Even if Wade is able to go he will not be 100 percent, and missing practice time further impacts the chemistry of a group that has yet to develop any.


Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU and ATS when favored this season, losing only a fluky affair vs. Jacksonville in which the Bucs totally out-played the Jaguars (total offense was 385-219). They have beaten the spread by 52 points through 10 games, a sign of just how under-rated they are, and in this particular matchup the oddsmakers have come up far short.

 

[the duke]

Teddy Covers

Cleveland Over 51 -110
St. Louis +3
Tampa Bay -3

 

[NYMess]

Anyone have ATS' 25 unit play today in NFL???

 

[to1]

Wunderdog



4 Units BUFFALO BILLS +9

Buffalo saw their four-game winning streak come to an end in a miserable 56-10 rout at the hands of New England. The only thing to say about this one is - throw it out. New England is a man among boys this season and they have blown out everyone not named the Colts. Trent Edwards has made a difference on this Bills team, as they are 5-1 in his starts if you exclude the Patriots game. The Bills defense is vastly underrated and isn't that poor. They have played six games vs. teams ranked 1, 1, 2, 5, 10 and 11. There is no doubt that they have had trouble stopping the league's top offenses, allowing 30.2 ppg vs. these teams. But all others are getting just 10.3 ppg and less than 300 yards per game vs. this Bills defense! The same can be said for their offense. They have played four games vs. the top six defenses in the league, having produced just 9.8 ppg. But versus all other teams, they have managed nearly double that at 19 ppg. Jacksonville is not a team that puts up big points. In their last five games, despite a 3-2 record, the Jags have been out-scored by 16 points. Over those five games, they have yielded 24.6 ppg. Jacksonville just may be looking ahead here a bit to next week's game vs. Indianapolis too. The Bills should be able to score enough here, and hold Jacksonville down enough to make this lofty spread produce a winner for the dog.


4 Units OAKLAND RAIDERS +6

Oakland is having another rough season. Offensively this team has problems finding the endzone. Kansas City has faced similar problems. When they played each other earlier it was very apparent that both struggle as they played to a 12-10 final score. Oakland has played five games vs. teams ranked in the top 14 in the league offensively, having allowed 27.2 ppg. But, the Raidres have done excellent against inept offenses. Versus teams ranked #20 or lower, they have also played five games, giving up just 87 points or 17.2 ppg. If you take out San Diego, a team with multiple offensive weapons, the Raiders have allowed just 14.8 ppg. The Cheifs woes have been season long on offense. They have produced a total of 66 points in seven of the 10 games they have played (9.4 ppg). They have managed to find the end-zone just 12 times all season, and four of those came deep into the 4th quarter. The last three weeks the Chiefs have run for a total of 200 yards on 71 carries (just 2.8 ypc). Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes ran for 173 of the 200, and neither will be playing in this one. The last two times these teams matched up, Johnson accounted for the only Chiefs TD and 133 of their 286 yards of offense. The Chiefs are last in the NFL running the ball, and with Johnson and Holmes out they simply have no one proven to handoff to. The problem is a mix of poor offensive line play, play calling and lack of good QB play as Johnson and Holmes accounted for 696 yards on 204 carries (3.4 ypc) which is hardly an effective running attack. The rest of the backs have 43 carries for 79 yards, good or 1.84 ypc. That is what they bring to this game. Oakland brings in the #6 rated pass defense. With a KC offense that hasn't been able to score, and a one-dimensional attack that will play into Oakland's strength, this becomes a lot of points. We will take the dog here.


2 Units TEXANS / BROWNS UNDER 51

Cleveland certainly has no defense while both of these teams can score. Cleveland has gone OVER in six straight games. But, none of those totals was this high, and the average was 46 - 5 full points below this number. This is by far the highest total Cleveland has seen this season, despite facing better offenses in New England and Pittsburgh (twice). It's also the highest number Houston has seen. We think it's inflated due to recent events, specifically the big-time play of Cleveland's offense. In November games featuring a team off a road game in which both teams scored 24+ points, the UNDER has hit at a 68% rate (65-30) over the past ten seasons. If the team off that high-scoring road game is now at home (as is Cleveland), the UNDER is 24-4 (86%)! Houston knows they can't win in a shootout. They will do what they can to keep Cleveland's offense off the field through a steady-dose of running. We like this one to stay UNDER



comp play:

CAROLINA PANTHERS +3

The Thanksgiving Day loss by the Lions has opened the door of hope for some of the NFC mediocre teams. Suddenly the seven teams sitting at 5-5 or 4-6 are within striking distance of the wildcard. The winner here at 5-6 moves to within one game. Carolina has not won a home game all season, putting them in the company of the Rams and the Dolphins. But certainly they don't belong in that company. Just when you think the Saints have gotten it back after rattling off four straight wins, they give St. Louis their first win of the season. Then they face an injured and depleted Houston team and lay another egg. This demise began long before this year however. The early pointspread darlings of 2006 that were 9-4 ATS, have now been a bettor's nightmare, going 4-11 ATS last 15. The defense is ranked 26th and this team just seems to find ways to lose games. Carolina has now dropped four straight and can't score. But wasn't that St. Louis' story two weeks ago? Yes, and they hung 37 on these Saints. The Panthers needed just 241 yards of offense to beat them earlier in the year, so we aren't getting too caught up on the Carolina offense. This is a Saints defense that is suffering from multiple injuries, and we expect Carolina to move the ball well enough to cover and win here. The Panters are 16-5-3 ATS in their last 24 as a dog, so this is a role in which they are more comfortable. We look for Carolina to break through at home and get the win.

 

[the duke]

Steven Budin-CEO



25 DIME PLAY: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

A note from Steve Budin:

Guys, since we're up 840 dimes with these releases I want you to spend a little extra coin and buy down the 1/2 point in the following scenarios: This line is floating between 3 and 4 points. So if you've got Tampa Bay at -3 I want you to buy them down to -2 1/2 so you still win if they prevail by a field goal. And if you get Tampa Bay at -3 1/2, buy down to -3 so you get a push with a field goal.

This is still a play at Tampa Bay -4 or higher as well, but once again, we are putting our profit to work for us by buying a little insurance and maximizing the odds in our favor if the line is under 4.

Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmaker's perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our profit of 840 dimes - against the bookmaker in this case.

Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself

 

[the duke]

Dr BOB

3 Star Selection
***Buffalo 20 JACKSONVILLE (-8.0) 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
Buffalo is 7-1 ATS this season when not playing New England, including 6 straight non- Patriots spread wins and the Bills are still an underrated team. I can certainly understand why the Bills are considered a bad team given that theyve averaged just 4.8 yards per play while allowing 5.8 yppl this season, but those numbers dont reflect whats going on with the Bills currently. Buffalo was horrible defensively early in the season but a couple of injuries to starting defensive backs led to a new lineup and the Bills discovered that the backups are much better than the original starters were. In 6 games since CB Jabari Greer and S George Wilson joined the starting lineup the Bills have allowed 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Buffalos J.P. Losman has played well since returning as the starting quarterback and he has been 0.1 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) while Trent Edwards was 0.9 yppp worse than average in his 5 games. The rushing attack is much worse without Marshawn Lynch, as his 3.8 ypr is much better than the 2.7 ypr that the other running backs have averaged this season. I adjusted the Bills rushing attack 0.8 yards per rushing play downward for the absence of Lynch and I rate Buffalos attack at 0.7 yppl worse than average without Lynch. Jacksonville, however, is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively this season (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and their offense is only 0.3 yppl better than average with David Garrard at quarterback, so the Jags are actually a below average team from the line of scrimmage. Garrard makes up for that by having not thrown an interception all season, but the Jaguars certainly are just barely better than an average team overall while Buffalo is barely worse than average thanks to their great special teams and their now better than average defense. My math model favors Jacksonville by only 3? points in this game and the Jags apply to a 2-29 ATS subset of a 33-77-1 ATS home favorite letdown situation. The Bills were 5-1 straight up in their 6 games before facing the Patriots juggernaut last week, with the only other loss being by just 1 point to the 9-1 Cowboys, so getting more than a touchdown looks like a good play given the situation and the line value. I'll take Buffalo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7? points or more and for 2-Stars at +7 points.

2 Star Selection
**Oakland 17 KANSAS CITY (-5.5) 14
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
The Raiders are a much better team with Daunte Culpepper at quarterback in place of Josh McCown, as Culpepper has averaged a decent 5.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing just 5 interceptions in 162 passes. McCown, meanwhile, averaged only 5.1 yppp despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB and he threw 9 picks in just 122 pass attempts. Culpepper looked good in his return to the starting lineup last week, throwing for over 300 yards and averaging 7.2 yppp against the Vikings and the Raiders are just 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively with Culpepper at quarterback. Kansas Citys defense has been solid all season and the Chiefs rate at 0.4 yppl better than average on that side of the ball, so they have a 0.5 yppl advantage over the Raiders attack. The Chiefs have turned their offense over to second year pro Brodie Croyle and he hasnt proven to be any worse than Damon Huard was in his 1? games behind center. Croyle has averaged only 5.5 yppp on 79 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and the Chiefs running attack has gone from bad to dreadful with Larry Johnson sidelines the last two weeks. Kansas City has averaged only 3.2 ypr this season and the Chiefs averaged just 2.8 ypr in two games without Johnson (against teams that would combine to allow 4.4 ypr) and now backup Priest Holmes has suddenly retired. Rookie Kolby Smith takes over, but his 19 yards on 10 carries this season does not indicate that he’ll be any better than Holmes was (just 3.0 ypr before retiring). Kansas City has been 0.9 yppl worse than average offensively this season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and that unit is even worse without Larry Johnson again this week. The Raiders have been a disappointment defensively this season, but their horrible run defense doesnt figure to hurt them too much against an equally bad Chiefs rushing attack and the Raiders defense (0.6 yppl worse than average) has a 0.5 yppl advantage over the Chiefs offense without Johnson which is the same advantage that KC had over Oaklands offense. The Raiders have an edge in special teams and my math model favors the Chiefs by just 2 points in this game. Oakland applies is just 2-8 and riding a 6 game losing streak but the Raiders continue to play hard and last weeks competitive loss at Minnesota is a good omen for the Raiders today. Teams that have lost 5 or more consecutive games are good bets if theyre coming off a loss of 7 points or less (a sign that they havent given up) and Oakland applies to a 76-26-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Ill take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3? points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 or more.

2 Star Selection
**Baltimore 17 SAN DIEGO (-9.0) 18
01:15 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
San Diego is certainly not a dominating team this season, being out-gained by an average of 305 yards at 5.3 yards per play to 355 yards at 5.6 yppl (after taking out quarterback spikes and kneel downs), and even the Chargers compensated numbers (0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively) are just mediocre. Baltimore looks like a bad team right now, as the Ravens have lost 4 straight games and are just 1-9 ATS for the season. Baltimores offense is indeed bad, averaging only 4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, but the Ravens defensive issues in recent weeks are likely to be a thing of the past with CB Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister back together in the secondary. Rolle has missed 6 games due to epilepsy, but hes returning to the lineup this week while McAlister should play this week with a bum ankle after returning from a 3 game absence last week. Safety Ed Reed got hurt last week, but he is also expected to play this week. Baltimores run defense has been great all season (3.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average team) and the pass defense was very good too in the 3 games in which both Rolle and McAlister have played allowing just 5.4 yards per pass play in weeks 1, 2 and 6 to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.6 yppp against an average defense). Baltimores pass defense has been 0.9 yppp worse than average in 7 games in which either Rolle or McAlister was out, so they are certainly not going to be as bad as their poor season numbers indicate. Baltimores defense is 0.4 yppl better than average for the season, but that unit has been 0.6 yppl better than average with their secondary intact and they have a pretty good edge over San Diegos offense especially if the Chargers try to run against the Ravens stout defensive front. My math model favors San Diego by 7 points if McAlister and Reed play as expected and by 9 points if one of them doesnt so the line is fair at the very worst and Baltimore applies to a number of good situations. The best of the situations is a 19-1 ATS subset of a 59-19-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and Ill take Baltimore in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7? points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Minnesota 20 NY GIANTS (-7.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
It looks like the oddsmakers are making a little too much of the injury to star rookie running back Adrian Peterson. Peterson had been incredible for Minnesota before getting hurt (1081 yards at 6.4 ypr), but the Vikings have a great offensive line and a very good backup running back in Chester Taylor, who has run for 468 yards at 5.6 ypr. The absence of Peterson is only worth about 1 point and the Vikings should certainly not be a 7 point underdog in this game. New York is only 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the best part of their offense a rushing attack that has averaged 4.6 ypr against teams that would allow just 3.9 ypr to an average team. However, running against the Vikings is not something that is easily done (Minnesota yields just 3.0 ypr) and Eli Manning is below average again this season (5.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback). The Vikings are 0.2 yppl worse than average defending the pass, but the Giants are at a disadvantage overall against the Minnesota defense. The Vikings offense has been 0.5 yppl better than average this season, but I rate that attack at just 0.2 yppl better than average without Peterson and with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. The Giants are only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively and these teams are about even overall from the line of scrimmage. The Giants do have an advantage in projected turnovers but Minnesota has an edge in special teams and my math model favors New York by just 2 points in this game and the Vikings have a solid 56% chance of covering at +7 points based on the historical predictability of my math model. Ill consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion in this game at +7 points and Ill take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7? points or more (at -115 odds or better).

Strong Opinion
San Francisco 15 ARIZONA (-10.5) 20
01:05 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
San Francisco is now officially the worst team in the NFL after losing at home to the Rams, but the 49ers qualify in a very good 227-111-9 ATS contrary indicator and a 24-1 ATS subset of a 138-67-3 ATS situation. Arizona, meanwhile, applies to a negative 34-90-1 ATS situation and the 49ers are the strongest technical play of the week. San Franciscos defense is good enough to keep them in the game, but their offense is horrendous and my math model favors Arizona by 12? points. The situations are certainly strong enough to give up a bit of line value but Im just not eager to pull the trigger on the Niners in a Best Bet. Ill consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more on the basis of the strong situations and indicators.

Strong Opinion
Under (41) - PITTSBURGH (-16.0) 24 Miami 10
05:30 PM Pacific, 26-Nov-07
Miamis offense went from better than average to a bit worse than average when quarterback Trent Green was injured and then the attack went from worse than average to dreadful starting week 9 when star running back Ronnie Brown was hurt. Backup Jessie Chatman is a decent runner, but he hasnt been able to match Browns 5.1 ypr and Chatman hasnt come close to making up for Browns contributions in the passing games. Brown still leads the Dolphins in receiving yards despite missing the last 3 games and he was the NFLs best pass catching running back when he got hurt, averaging 8.5 yards per pass thrown to him. Chatman, meanwhile, has averaged only 4.4 yards on the 28 passes thrown to him and the difference is about 3 points per game. The difference in the running contributions between the two backs works about to about 2 points per game and the Dolphins have averaged just 4.1 yards per play and 9 points in 3 games without Brown. Miami has turned over the reigns of this broken down offense to rookie John Beck and he appears to be no better or worse than Cleo Lemon was in Lemons 5 games at the helm which is to say not very good. My math model favors Pittsburgh by 14? points and I have situations going both for and against the Dolphins in this game. Ill lean slightly with Miami and I would have made the Under a Best Bet here if not for Pittsburghs tendency to go Over at home (39-12-1 Over). Miami has gone easily Under in all 3 games without Brown and his absence hasnt been properly adjusted for in the total. I will consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher.

 

[the duke]

Matt Rivers

100,000* LOCK OF THE DAY Plus Bonus Locks

1. 100,000♦ Redskins

2. 50,000♦ Ravens

3. 50,000♦ Bears

1. Over the years the Redskins and Bucs have met a bunch of times and it seems like each time we have a knock down drag out very very even affair. I do not see much changing here and to get that field goal, even on the road, and what appears to be a lean as well or even that 3 1/2 in some places I have no choice but to back Joe Gibbs' team.

This is as even of a game as there truly can be. Both teams are good, not great and can snatch a huge win and greatly improve their playoff chances.

The Bucs have been a pleasant surprise and are a solid and well balanced squad but they are no better than the Skins at all and to get points in this game is a steal as we can easily see this thing end by that field goal, if not less.

Clinton Portis is the best player on the field and both defenses should do their thing I really like the maturity of Jason Campbell and have no issues with him against Jeff Garcia. It'll be that Washington running game which takes over the game and pull this game out in the end something like 17-14 or 20-17.



2. The Ravens have been awful for awhile now but the Chargers have certainly not done much themselves to be laying such a handsome price. Philip Rivers is regressing and despite having LT and Antonio Gates San Diego is extremely vulnerable as we have seen on numerous occasions this season.

Kyle Boller will get the start for Baltimore which is fine. The guy is far from good but he is better than Steve McNair and actually did some very good things last week in that tighter than tight loss against Cleveland. Baltimore came to play in that last game and at least showed that they have not fully quit on the season.
Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are still great and will make some plays. Unless Brian Billick's offense turns the ball over a ton, which they have done at times, we are looking at a closer than expected game according to those oddsmakers and a one posession final.
The Ravens defense will bring the heat as they see the best across the way in Tomlinson and Gates and subsequentially keep this thing in range.



3. Jay Cutler and the Broncos had one solid win last week and all of a sudden Mike Shanahan's team is deemed the next coming????? Come on! Travis Henry and Javon Walker are more than likely going to miss again and this Denver squad is still not that good at all. They are more than lucky to be at .500 after a ton of tight late wins and one game does not all of a sudden make them anything at all in my book.

The Bears have been as disappointing as they come and Rex Grossman certainly does not instill confidence in me but Brian Urlacher and the Bears at Soldier Field are still somewhat imposing and should flat out win this game. Lovie Smith's defense and overall team is not good right now, don't let me fool you as they have issues all over the field but so do the Broncos and at home in the Windy City there is no way that Denver wins this game around half the time as Chicago, no way.

Da Bears are more than due for a quality showing and this is the perfect opponent for that to happen against as the Broncos are extremely overvalued right now after that last win and I'm all about Lovie's boys!

 

[bases]

Cash Pomers plays for NFL Sunday

Cash Pomers plays for NFL Sunday

Really appreciated
thanks

 

[MMST]

ATS LOCK
12 Jax --Down graded from 25 Unit Play
5 Denver
5 Balt
4 Wash

Hoops
4 Kansas

ATS FINANCIAL
3 Houston
3 Tenn

Hoops
3 G Mason

 

[the duke]

Kelso Sturgeon

Chairmans Club
10 Units Jacksonville -8

Best Bets
5 Units Giants -7.5
3 Units Washington +3

 

[the duke]

Yankee Capper

Total Ticket

NBA
3 Units LA Lakers 7

NHL
3 Units Anaheim Ducks -220

NFL
5 Units - Cincinnati +1.5
4 Units - Tampa Bay -3
3 Units - Jacksonville -8.5
3 Units - San Diego -8.5

 

[the duke]

Psychic Sports Picks

11/25


All NFL

2 units Cleveland -3
2 units Kansas City -4.5
2 units Washington +3
2 units St. Louis +3
4 units New Orleans -2

 

[the duke]

Big Al

4* Western Conf Game Of The Month
Sonics

3* Nfc Total Of The Year
Over Arizona

3* Nfc West Game Of The Year
Rams

3* Bears

 

[TrickDaddy]

Billy Coleman or Phil Steele's late phones

Billy Coleman or Phil Steele's late phones

Anyone? Thanks in advance.:00hour :SIB :00hour

 

[Big_Chief]

Wayne Root & Brandon Lang?

Wayne Root & Brandon Lang?

Thank YOu

 

[Senor Capper]

TIME SAVER

EROCKMONEY_________(Upset Special)____________Carolina (+3) v. New Orleans
Wunderdog______________Comp_______________________ ________Carolina +3
The RED SHEET_____________________________________________ __N Orleans
Bernz_____________________________________________ _________PANTHERS
gbwins.com________________________________________ ______New Orleans -3
LT Profits_________________Comp____________________Ca rolina Panthers +3.0
Dave Price________________Comp_______________________Ne w Orleans Saints
Vincent Pioli_______________comp__________________________ New Orleans +1
Gold Medal Club_____________15*_____________________________C arolina +3



Bernz_____________________________________________ __________BENGALS
king creole______________double dime___________________cinn /tenn over 46.5
LEM BANKER____________________________________________ _______Bengals
SportsAction365____________comp___________________ _________Cincinnati -3
G. LYON______________________________________________ ____CINNCINNATI



MARC LAWRENCE______________4*___________Houston + 3 Buy Extra 1/2 Point
MARC LAWRENCE_______NFL PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB__________________Houston
The hook______________________________________________ _Brownies - 3 1/2
EROCKMONEY________________________________________ Under 51 Hous/Clev
gbwins.com________________________________________ ________Cleveland -3
Teddy Covers________________________________________Hous t/Cleve Over 51
Robert Ferringo_______________3-Unit Play____________________Houston +3.5
Phenom__________________________________________Ho uston/Cleveland Over
Gold Medal Club_________________10*________________(First Half) Browns -1.5
GAFFNEY___________________________________________ _________HOUSTON
G. LYON______________________________________________ _______HOUSTON
Norm Hitzges_____________________________________Housto n +3 vs Cleveland
POINT TRAIN______________ROAD WARRIOR____________Houston Texans(+3.5)
Tim Trushel___________________________________________ ____Houston +3.5



MARC LAWRENCE___________________3*_____________________ ___Buffalo + 8
Robert Ferringo________________________________________ov er 36.0 Buff/Jax
Robert Ferringo____________________2.5-Unit Play_____________Buffalo (+7.5)
king creole______________________dime bet jaguars/bufflo___________over 36.5
Phenom____________________________________________ _______________Jax
Alex Smart________________________Comp________________B uffalo Bills +7.5
Norm Hitzges___________________________________Buffalo +8.5 vs Jacksonville
Stephen Nover_____________________Comp____________________ _Buffalo Bills
Gold Medal Club____________________25*_______________________ Buffalo +8
Dr B_________________________3 Star***BEST BET_______________Buffalo +7
GAFFNEY___________________________________________ _____JACKSONVILLE



EROCKMONEY__________________Blowout of the Week_______Kansas City (-5.5)
The hook______________________________________________ __Kc over 34 1/2
Dr B_____________________________2 Star________________________Oakland
NSA Wins_________________________comp_________________ ___Oakland +4.5
GAFFNEY___________________________________________ _________OAKLAND
Norm Hitzges_________________________________________Oa kland +5.5 vs KC



Robert Ferringo__________________2.5-Unit_______________New York Giants -7
Fred Callahan_____________________comp_________________ _Giants over 48.5
Gold Medal Club____________________25*________First Half) Giants -3 OVER 20
Dr B_________________________Strong Opinion___________________Minnesota
The hook______________________________________________ _______giants -7



The hook______________________________________________ ______Seattle -3
NELLY______________________________3*_____________ ________St.Louis +3
gbwins.com________________________________________ __________Seattle -3
Teddy Covers____________________________________________ ___St. Louis +3
ROB VENO______________________20* blue chip_____________st.louis over 44.5
DC sports_______________________20* grand slam___________st.louis over44.5
DONNIE BLACK___________________blackmagic 20*__________st.louis over 44.5
ace-ace/allan Eastman_________________30________________________ _sea -3
007's cousin?____________________triple-dime bet__________STL/SEA Over 44.5
Phenom____________________________________________ ____________Seattle
LT Profits Comp_____________________________________Seahawks/Rams u45.0
Marc Lawrence________________________Comp______________ _St. Louis Rams
Michael Alexander_____________________Comp________________ St Louis Rams
GameDay___________________________comp____________ _______Seattle -5.5
Gold Medal Club___________________10*__________First Half Seattle OVER 22.5
Tim Trushel___________________________________________ _____St. Louis +3



NELLY_____________________________1*______________ _____Washington +3
EROCKMONEY_______________________________Tampa Bay (-3) v. Washington
CKO______________________________10_______________ ____________WASH
Teddy Covers____________________________________________ _Tampa Bay -3
Dave ********______________________6*__________________ ___TAMPA BAY -3
ace-ace/allan Eastman________________20_________________________ __tb -3
king creole________________________dime bet____________t bay/Wash over 38
Steven Budin____________________25 DIME PLAY_____TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
LEM BANKER____________________________________________ _________Bucs
Phenom____________________________________________ ________Tampa Bay
Bruce Marshall_____________________Comp_________Washingt on Redskins +3.0
Gold Medal Club____________________25*____________________Was hington +3
GAFFNEY___________________________________________ ________TAMPA BAY
G. LYON______________________________________________ ____WASHINGTON
Norm Hitzges_________________________________Tampa Bay -3 vs Washington
S.Spreitzer________________________best bet____________________tampa bay
Matt Rivers _________________Lock of the day 100,000♦________________Redskins



NELLY______________________________1*_____________ _______Denver +1.5
Bernz____________________________Personal_________ __BEARS (-3 or better)
The hook______________________________________________ _______Bears -1
ron Raymond______________________5 unit____________bears/broncs under 41
LEM BANKER____________________________________________ ________Bears
Phenom____________________________________________ ___________Denver
Mike Rose________________________Comp______________Denv er Broncos +2.0
Matt Rivers_______________________50,000♦______________ ______________Bears



EROCKMONEY_____________________________Over 38) San Francisco at Arizona
VICTOR KING______________________2*_________49ers @ CARDINALS UNDER
Bernz_____________________________________________ ____________49ERS
Robert Ferringo___________________3-Unit_____________San Francisco (+10.5)
STEPHEN N______________OVER total of the month__________ARI /SF Over 37.5
Dr B________________________strong Opinion_________________San Francisco
Norm Hitzges________________________________Arizona -10.5 vs San Francisco



GOLDEN CONTENDER_________________________________________ ___Raveens
The hook______________________________________________ ____Balt + 9 1/2
MARC LAWRENCE___________________3*_____________________ Baltimore + 9
Larry Ness_______________________NFL 24*____________________SD Chargers
Matt *****_________________________Comp_______________B altimore Ravens
Tony Campone______________________comp____________San Diego under 40.5
G. LYON______________________________________________ ______BALTIMORE
POINT TRAIN__________________6-UNIT BEST BET_____Baltimore Ravens (+9.5)
Norm Hitzges___________________________________________ __San Diego -9.5
Dr B_________________________2 Star Selection___________________Baltimore
Matt Rivers____________________________________________ __50,000♦ Ravens



VICTOR KING____________________2*____________EAGLES @ PATRIOTS OVER
Bernz Blue________________________________UNDER pats/eagles (48 or better)
GAFFNEY___________________________________________ _____NEW ENGLAND
Charlies Sports_________________comp_____________________Ph iladelphia -10
Tim Trushel___________________Featured Play_________New England Under 50.5



The RED SHEET_____________________________________________ ______PITT
EROCKMONEY___________________________________Miami (+15) at Pittsburgh
Dr B_________________________Strong Opinion_________Under 41 PITTSBURGH