Sunday Sevice Plays 8/17/08

[the duke]

CHARLIES SPORTS

nfl. cincinnati-3' (500*)
nfl. detroit @ cincinnati over 36 (30*)
mlb. dodgers-145 (20*)
mlb. houston-110 (20*)
mlb. reds-110 (10*)
nfl. tampa bay-2 (10*) free play



Matty O'Shea

MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
907 SFG (-145) Bodog vs 908 ATL

Analysis: I honestly believe San Francisco's Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball, so I have no problem risking this price against a team he has never lost to during his career. Lincecum is a perfect 3-0 in three lifetime starts vs. Atlanta with a 3.32 ERA, and I think we're getting some value here because he left his last start at Houston with a bruised knee. The Braves will counter with Charlie Morton, who is 0-5 in six home starts with a 9.00 ERA. I'll take my chances with Lincecum and will back the Giants here as my Single Dime NL Pitching Mismatch Play O' the Day.



MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
919 ANA (-145) Bookmaker vs 920 CLE

Analysis: The Angels have not lost a series since the end of May, and I certainly don't expect things to change here. They have won all five starts for Joe Saunders since the All-Star break, as he has gone 2-0 during that stretch with a 3.06 ERA. Saunders has also never lost to the Indians, going 2-0 in three career starts with a stellar 1.25 ERA. Meanwhile, Cleveland's Jeremy Sowers has not earned a win at home in almost two years, going 0-4 with a 5.11 ERA in his last 12 starts there. I'll fade Sowers again and back the Angels as my Single Dime AL Pitching Mismatch O' the Day.



GREG SHAKER

MLB Total Double-Dime Bet
928 OAK / 927 CWS Under 8 BetUS
Analysis: MLB: Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics - Under 8 (Vazquez/Gonzalez) -110 | Unit Value: 2Game Date: 8/17/2008
Note: I should have stuck with my initial thoughts on yesterday's game between these two teams and played the UNDER. I will today as the A's will once again throw at the weakest point of attack for the WhiteSox, hitting lefties. The WhiteSox thrower has been up and down this year and he is prone to long streaks either way. His last effort was as solid as they come and following that up with another one is very likely for this guy. Oakland's Pen work is one of the best in the league. They do remain one of the weakest hitting squads though and that is certainly the biggest reason why they have played a lot of UNDERS this year. They are 72-43-7 doing just that including yesterday's outcome.

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness

Las Vegas Insider-NFLX Week 2 $35.00
Larry and his "unmatched" contacts typically get together on a single play each week of the preseason. For Week 2, that play goes tonight! Regulars have watched them combine for winning selections in all sport for years, much like their current 38-23 run with MLB Insiders s/May 26. "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2

 

[the duke]

Matt Fargo

**80% Pitching Mismatch of the Week**
Fargo looks to bounce back today after the Rays were shut out last night! Still, he is 35-24 over the last 25 days and 47-31 (60.3%) over his last 78 Premiums! He has been on a solid run with his P.M. reports, going 14-6 (70%) over his last 20! He starts the new week with a gem of a release which is backed by 34-12 (80%) Team Angles! $30.00

Giants


MLB **80.2% No Doubt Absolute Road Blowout**
Fargo looks to bounce back today after the Rays were shut out last night! Still, he is 35-24 over the last 25 days and 47-31 (60.3%) over his last 78 Premiums! The value can often be found on the road as we catch much better prices! That is the case here and this No Doubt Absolute Road Blowout is backed by 89-22 (80.2%) Team Angles
$30.00

White Sox

 

[the duke]

Strike Point Sports

2 units Angels
2 units Rockies
2 units White Sox

 

[TheRookie]

Is there any one got STEVE BURDIN CEO picks. He have been awsome the last few. Thanks in advance...

 

[Spud82]

The Black Jesus


MLB:

NY Yankees -250 *5 bagger
LA Angles -155 *4 bagger
Tampa Bay - 148 *4 bagger
Houston UN 8 *3 bagger
Minnesota OV 9 *3 bagger


NFLX:

Detroit +3 1/2 *4 bagger

 

[kozski61]

Sebasswipe Insider Play...100* Yanks on the run line
Sebasswipe Bomber Play...300* Over Twins

 

[kozski61]

Hitman

5000 LARGE DIAMOND DOMINATOR
Philadelphia w/Hamels -180 8:05 EST


Teddy Covers

MLB 3* Toronto Blue Jays

MLB 3* Arizona Diamondbacks

NFLX 3* TB Buccaneers

 

[the duke]

Brian Gabrielle

Take Matt Kenseth (+700), 1/6th unit. This week, the Smokless Set heads back to Michigan, a track on which Kenseth has a great record. In 18 career starts here, he's got 12 top-10 finishes and eight top-fives, including the June race, when he finished third. In that event, however, I felt he had the day's best car, but was bumped out of win by fuel strategy. He's my favorite to take Sunday's race.

Take Jimmie Johnson (+600), 1/6th unit. Johnson has been red-hot, finishing inside the top seven in each of the past four events. He's never won at Michigan (only one of five non-road-course tracks where you can say that), but he was a solid sixth here in June, after finishing second in the Car of Tomorrow at Michigan's sister track, Fontana, earlier in the season.

Take Carl Edwards (+600), 1/6th unit. Roush Racing tends to be strongest at Michigan, so if Kenseth doesn't win, his teammate Edwards has a great chance. Edwards has won here once, in the spring of '07, and in the Car of Tomorrow back in June, he finished seventh here.

 

[the duke]

Teddy Covers

Sunday MLB Daily Card: $49
Sunday's Daily Card from Teddy Covers features two plays in all: His MLB National League Side Report to go along with an American League Underdog, both for just $49. It must produce a net profit or Teddy's Daily Card for tomorrow is yours free

MLB 3* Toronto Blue Jays

MLB 3* Arizona Diamondbacks

NFLX 3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

[the duke]

Frank Rosenthal

SUNDAY, AUGUST 17, 2008

MLB
901 CUBS-140 SB
904 REDS-110 SB
907 GIANTS-115 SB
911 DBACKS UNDER 8 SB
916 DODGERS-150 SB
UNDER 8.5 SB+
919 ANGELS-150 SB
927 CWS-115 SB+
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO

 

[jz11]

Frank Rosenthal

SUNDAY, AUGUST 17, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
901 CUBS-140 SB
904 REDS-110 SB
907 GIANTS-115 SB
911 DBACKS UNDER 8 SB
916 DODGERS-150 SB
UNDER 8.5 SB+
919 ANGELS-150 SB
927 CWS-115 SB+
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL PRESEASON - WEEK 2
429 PATS+2.5
OVER 33 SB

 

[kozski61]

Sports Pro Unlimited
5 Fla +135
5 Bos -1.5 (POD)
5 Sea Over



Fairway Jay

NFLX 3* Cincinnati Bengals -4



Ben Burns

MLB 4* Cincinnati Reds

MLB 4* Diamondbacks/Astros under 8.5

 

[jz11]

any ROOT?

 

[jz11]

nevermind i found him

Root
Chairman- Dbacks
Millionaire- Bengals
Money Maker- White sox

 

[snakebill]

ANYONE HAVE ATS LOCK OF THE YEAR IN THE M.L.B. ITS A 25 STAR PICK? THANKS IN ADVANCE

 

[the duke]

Dave Malinsky

4* TORONTO/BOSTON Under


We have gone to the well with Josh Beckett Under in each of his last
two games, and while we only managed a split, the premise of catching
him at the right time has been dead on - he allowed only three runs
over 14.2 innings in a pair of dominating road outings, with more
strikeouts (15) than hits + walks combined (13). Now he returns home
to Fenway for the first time since a rare ugly outing in that Park
vs. the Angels three starts back, and that means a special chip on
his shoulder. It also means a chance to dominate a limited Toronto
offense.


In getting behind Beckett recently we noted that there has not been
anything wrong with this stuff at all. He went 20-7/3.27 LY, behind a
1.14 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts-per-9. This season his overall has
fallen to 11-8/3.92, despite the fact that the WHIP is 1.18 and the
strikeouts-per-9 right at 8.7 again. The only issue has been an
increase in home runs, but he has not allowed one in either of those
last two starts, and only two in 35 innings since the All Star break.
Now he faces a team that is most unlikely to hit one (the Blue Jays
are dead last in the A.L. in that category), which means that his
roll has every chance to continue. And note that stepping down in
class is something that he has not had a chance to do often - of the
135 pitchers that have worked at least 80 innings so far, his
difficulty of batters faced is #11.


We get value because the markets see his full-season numbers more
than the current form, however, and the same can be said about Shaun
Marcum. Marcum had to work his way through some physical issues
earlier, which led to a stint on the DL, and he also struggled to
find his rhythm on his return. But in back-to-back solid wins over
Oakland and Detroit we have seen the Marcum that we are accustomed to
- he allowed only three runs on 11 hits over 13 innings of those
wins. Now he can continue to make up for lost time much like Beckett,
and with Roy Halladay?s Saturday gem leaving the entire Toronto
bullpen rested and ready, the latter stages are in good hands as well.


Not only are both of these starters under-valued, but each bullpen
brings the key arms fresh. That means we have outstanding value, and
we can also attribute that earlier Red Sox series vs. Texas this week
for more of that - beating up that cluster of Minor League pitching
talents does not indicate at all where this offense really is, and
when they had to finally step in class last night they failed
miserably.


6* CHICAGO over OAKLAND


We got behind Javier Vazquez in his last outing, and here was the
prelude to the play from that writeup - ?. . .and with a notion
that we are in the right place at the right time to get behind Javier
Vazquez it means time to get involved here. . .Meanwhile Vazquez is
not being treated well by the marketplace because he has been on a
1-5 slide over his last eight starts, but take a closer look. He has
pitched seven full innings in three of four starts since the All Star
break, and went six in the other, an easy road win over these Royals.
We do not see anything wrong in his stuff at all, and the timing is
right to start buying in behind him now for a late-season
correction.?


All Vazquez did was pitch perhaps his best game of the season,
shutting the Royals out over eight innings, and having twice as many
strikeouts (10) as hits allowed (5). But when we see the near pick?em
range for this game it shows that the markets are still far behind
the true level of the Chicago right-hander. His 9-10/4.50 makes him
appear to be the epitome of an average pitcher, which he is not. So
for a guy that has solid peripheral numbers, managing nearly a
strikeout per inning (151 in 156 frames), and also having more than
three times as many strikeouts as walks allowed, we will not hesitate
to get into play again. With the superiority of the White Sox
offense, we will also get involved in a major way.


Chicago will be facing a left-hander for the third straight game, and
in Gio Gonzalez we see a vulnerable young hurler. He is considered a
decent prospect because he has a live arm, but he lacks polish and
command, and is not ready for this level yet. He was an uninspiring
8-7/4.24 at AAA, with a high walk count, but the Athletics have
decided to give him a look anyway, even through his 23rd birthday is
not for a couple of more days. And while his 1-1/4.09 may appear that
he has held his own through the first two starts, that has not been
the case at all. First he opened against the Blue Jays, who have been
the A.L.?s weakest offense against left-handers, and were playing
without Vernon Wells. Then it was a home game against a Tampa Bay
team that has also been among the bottom in the league against
left-handers, and was playing without Carl Crawford and Evan
Longoria. So his base numbers have to be adjusted because of the
limited competition, and note that in holding the Rays to one run
over five innings he was more lucky than good - nine of the 23
batters that he faced reached based via a hit or a walk, and he had
an ugly ratio of seven fly-ball outs vs. only two on the ground. The
bottom line? There is not much there. Now he has to step way up in
class against a savvy veteran lineup that packs a lot of punch, and
it will not take long before he gets exposed.


The White Sox are well-set in all facets here. By getting a rare win
in this ballpark on Saturday they got a bit of that monkey off of
their backs, which takes the psychological issues away. There is also
a red-hot Bobby Jenks (1.83, 25 saves) ready for the latter stages,
with yesterday?s easy 9th inning (only nine pitches) coming after
three straight off days. Jenks has not been scored on in August,
allowing only two hits and not walking a single batter in six
appearances, and that creates more than the struggling Oakland
offense can overcome here, particularly with the White Sox figuring
to get plenty of production.

 

[the duke]

BOB AKMENS

MLB 7* Jays/Red Sox over 8.5

MLB 4* Rockies/Nationals under 8

MLB 4* Brewers/Dodgers under 8

NFLX 4* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5

NFLX 4* TB Buccaneers

 

[the duke]

LT Profits

MLB 2* Royals/Yankees under 8.5

MLB 2* Florida Marlins

MLB 2* Mariners/Twins over 9

NFLX 2* Detroit Lions +3.5

 

[the duke]

Kelso Sturgeon

Best Bets Club

5 units Arizona
4 units Detroit
3 units White Sox


NFL Preseason

5 units Tampa bay
3 units Bengals