In a logical world the Eggles are the play here. I’m not sure this is a logical world.
Super Bowl
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
Was reading that.....
Ron Torbert 2024 Refereed Game Betting Trends
- Games in Charge: 17
- Average Total Points Scored: 46.4
- Over/Under Record: 10-7-0
- Favorite/Underdog Results: 13-4-0 SU & ATS
- Average Total Penalties: 13.8
- Average Penalty Yards: 115.18
Torbert’s crew was among the most flag-happy during the 2024 regular season, ranking third in accepted penalties and penalty yards. However, that won’t necessarily translate to this game, as the NFL will use an All-Star crew of top officials at each position.
Torbert and side judge Boris Cheek, who is making his fourth Super Bowl appearance, are the only officials on this crew with previous experience on this stage. However, the crew has over 80 years of experience as NFL officials.
Super Bowl Referee Betting Tips
Do the Chiefs Get More Calls?
Technically, yes. Through 19 games, the Chiefs have been penalized 18 fewer times than their opponents. However, with a sample size as large as an entire NFL season, that margin is relatively small.Kansas City has netted 100 yards from penalties over the year, which averages out to just over five yards per game. That figure ranks eighth in the NFL, well behind league leader Minnesota (415 net yards) and AFC runner-up Buffalo (171).
Super Bowl 59 head referee Ron Torbert hasn’t taken charge of a Chiefs game in over two seasons, last presiding over KC’s AFC Championship Game victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in January 2023. He refereed two Eagles games this year (Week 1 vs Green Bay and Week 18 vs New York), and Philadelphia’s opponents (16) were flagged twice as often as Nick Sirianni’s squad (eight).
More Penalties = Fewer Points?
While one would assume a flag-happy crew would lead to lower-scoring games, that hasn’t been the case with Torbert’s squad this season.Part of that has to do with what types of penalties are getting called. While Torbert’s crew flagged the fourth-most offensive holdings (2.88 per game), it often eventually canceled those out with penalties against the defense. His crew was responsible for the third-most unnecessary roughness calls (15 in 17 games) and fifth-most roughing the passer penalties (eight).
Despite overseeing games with the fourth-lowest average Over/Under (44) of any crew, Torbert’s contests finished in the middle of the pack with a scoring average of 46.4 points per game. Overs went 10-7, tied for the fourth-best Over record for any crew this season.
Historically, Torbert’s games have aided the Under, which has a 43-24-1 record over the past four seasons.
Torbert Favoring Favorites in 2024
One noteworthy stat from Torbert’s crew in 2024 was that betting favorites went 13-4 straight up and against the spread in games it officiated. That was the second-best ATS mark of any official, falling just shy of the 13-3-1 ATS and 16-1 SU mark of Alex Kemp’s crew.To put that statistic in some context, NFL betting favorites had a historic year in 2024. They went 194-78 straight up and 142-122-8 ATS during the regular season. That run has generally continued in the playoffs, although the Commanders did spring a pair of upsets to reach the NFC Championship Game.
- Sep 25, 2009
- 2,213
- 197
- 63
It’s not that KC gets more calls, it’s that they get them at the most opportune times.
And its always on 3rd down.
Honestly this crap goes on ALL SEASON LONG every nfl game. Offensive penalties no PI or RTP or automatic first downers, sht even in the cfp ohio st texas was a completely manufactured outcome they even broke out offensive PI and offensive facemask in q1 on OSU.
@Jord20 who were you on two yrs ago? I had kc big, it was a sentiment thing mainly and all the eagles blowout wins vs kc “squeaking” by yet kc opening as the fav to draw eagles $. I put no other analysis into it other than looking at the number as a business model for books, and how clearly convinced eagles backers were, i mean you shoulda been alarmed when philly didnt open -2.5 last time.
Regardless, i’m with you, the chiefs run is (i wont say manufactured) but in a better conference and even in super bowls the opponent gives games to them late. Im no mahomes hater or any crap like that, but hes just not as good as the qbs he beats.
Refs 100% influence outcomes. Yes, if you look at the calls in a vacuum, many times technically by the letter of the rules theyre not “wrong” but its the issue of timing and the fact the same rules are broken nearly every play in some way by one team or the other but not called.
It’s like an nba game where they’re not calling a tight game, lot of contact going uncalled, but with 2 min left in a tied game u call traveling and then a foul on the other end to induce at least a 2-3 pt swing RIGHT AT THE POINT OF IMPACTING THE OUTCOME. Both calls may be 100% by the rules correct, but it becomes arbitrary and intentional when enforcement lacks any consistency at all and just keeps appearing in the biggest moments.
I wouldbt bet or not bet any game just b/c of this tho. I believe in efficient markets, that bullsht is already priced in, to bet based on it is like buying a stock after all the good news is reflected in its value.
To evaluate this game based on if the nfl wants kc to win / 3 peat or not is a disservice to those of us who win with skill and experience.
If anyone really thinks the nfls script is how to bet here, just go put your $ on black in mohegan sun. Theres more to this skill set than that, and anyone thinking otherwise should get a new hobby
Regardless, i’m with you, the chiefs run is (i wont say manufactured) but in a better conference and even in super bowls the opponent gives games to them late. Im no mahomes hater or any crap like that, but hes just not as good as the qbs he beats.
Refs 100% influence outcomes. Yes, if you look at the calls in a vacuum, many times technically by the letter of the rules theyre not “wrong” but its the issue of timing and the fact the same rules are broken nearly every play in some way by one team or the other but not called.
It’s like an nba game where they’re not calling a tight game, lot of contact going uncalled, but with 2 min left in a tied game u call traveling and then a foul on the other end to induce at least a 2-3 pt swing RIGHT AT THE POINT OF IMPACTING THE OUTCOME. Both calls may be 100% by the rules correct, but it becomes arbitrary and intentional when enforcement lacks any consistency at all and just keeps appearing in the biggest moments.
I wouldbt bet or not bet any game just b/c of this tho. I believe in efficient markets, that bullsht is already priced in, to bet based on it is like buying a stock after all the good news is reflected in its value.
To evaluate this game based on if the nfl wants kc to win / 3 peat or not is a disservice to those of us who win with skill and experience.
If anyone really thinks the nfls script is how to bet here, just go put your $ on black in mohegan sun. Theres more to this skill set than that, and anyone thinking otherwise should get a new hobby
I will add that i love the narrative of a season or short piece of a season. In the cfp, we had tv shows predicting ryan days replacement for 2 weeks after the UM game how Weird would it be if THAT SAME MAN hoisted the trophy in 6 weeks? Not as weird as u think.
But no one TALKS about the right narrative until its over. In the last eagkes / chiefs superbowl, mahomes was playing his 3rd superbowl in 4 seasons . and would be a 2 time winner and the essential piece of a dynasty if the chiefs won. But u didnt hear the dynasty word until the monday after. Even tho it was right there. Everyone was focused on the chiefs losing to TB in their last superbowl and the unstoppable eagles.
This year, its all about 3 peats and the nfl helping kc win. The narrative under appreciated and right in front of us is a bettee eagles team than two yrs ago, a worse kc team, a deeper roster, and brilliant roster moves strategically executed FOR THIS DAMN GAME.
In a league where we hear the word “parity” so much, why is the media not leaning into how inevitable at least a BREAK in kc wins is, hell maybe even an end lol? But parity be damned for 2 weeks theres no smart money against mahomes in january or feb right? Lol. Its more nonsensical than “bettable” to me
I lean philly but no play yet.
But no one TALKS about the right narrative until its over. In the last eagkes / chiefs superbowl, mahomes was playing his 3rd superbowl in 4 seasons . and would be a 2 time winner and the essential piece of a dynasty if the chiefs won. But u didnt hear the dynasty word until the monday after. Even tho it was right there. Everyone was focused on the chiefs losing to TB in their last superbowl and the unstoppable eagles.
This year, its all about 3 peats and the nfl helping kc win. The narrative under appreciated and right in front of us is a bettee eagles team than two yrs ago, a worse kc team, a deeper roster, and brilliant roster moves strategically executed FOR THIS DAMN GAME.
In a league where we hear the word “parity” so much, why is the media not leaning into how inevitable at least a BREAK in kc wins is, hell maybe even an end lol? But parity be damned for 2 weeks theres no smart money against mahomes in january or feb right? Lol. Its more nonsensical than “bettable” to me
I lean philly but no play yet.
Doesn’t this exact same narrative apply this year also?
Everybody agrees the eagles roster is superior top to bottom this year, why didn’t the eagles open as faves?
The eagles seem to be a pretty popular dog, which is never a good thing for the public.
The biggest mismatch in this game is Reid v sirianni.
My money will be on KC.
Don’t forget about the most important parts of the game ………. Coaching , strategy and play calling.
Who wins that fight ? Unmmm not the Italian stallion with the nose job. I can guarantee you that.
Anyway. This isn’t the game to go crazy on. Will Prob come down to the last drive.
Who wins that fight ? Unmmm not the Italian stallion with the nose job. I can guarantee you that.
Anyway. This isn’t the game to go crazy on. Will Prob come down to the last drive.
no the narrative isnt the same.
Now Mahomes IS the goat or brady-esque, everyone likes KC, they’ve won 2 more superbowls since pre - eagles win, you can’t bet against them in the post season, we dont know if jalen hurts is even good or propped up by SB / OL, the nfl wants kc to win, bla bla bla.
What part of that was BEING TALKED ABOUT leading into the last time?
Elements are the similar, but the key points and things most heard / propaganda’d are nowhere near the sane.
Mahomes was a 1-1 qb in super bowls before. He became a legend the last kc / phl super bowl, yeah he was just as good before, but leading into the game NO ONE was talking about how he was a win away from dynasty.
Doesnt mean NO ONE said those things. But media was eagles obsessed and u couldnt injure a chiefs backer if u napalmed LA
my homeies btw
100% fact since 1977 no team that lost a meaningfull game to buccaneers ever won a superbowl 4 playodd teams teams lost to Tampa bay wasg week 1 at home vs wash-3.5 win 37-20
@ detroit lions -5.5 chalk lions lost 20-16
week 4 vs eagles as a home dog +1.5 crushed the birds 33-13
@chargers as +3 dog wacked them 40-21
eagles defense was built up on a bunch of losers carlonia no cove r brow ns no cover @ giants easy cover vs jax at home blown cover -9.5 win by 5 21-16
@ cowboys easy win 41*7 wash tnf - 4 win 26-18 @ rams as +2.5 dog win @ bust ted up injured ravens as 3 + dog win home - 12.5 vs carolina no cover 21-16 win
as usual vs steelrs home win but 100% after steelers they lose s/u n ats craoked @ wash 33-38 as a fav -3.5
final 2 home games cowboys b giants
the \n the final sos rankings
after week 18
5 th Kansas City (15-2) 0.8 1 17 7
17 th Philadelphia (16-3) 0.1 2 24 16
18 Dallas (7-10) 0.0 3 24 18
19 Tennessee (3-14) -0.1 3 26 17
20 Las Vegas (4-13) -0.1 1 30 19
21 Tampa Bay (10-8) -0.2 1 30 20
b efore w eek 1
1 Kansas City (0-0) -- 1 10 1
2 San Francisco (0-0) -- 2 22 2
3 Baltimore (0-0) -- 1 6 3
4 Detroit (0-0) -- 4 27 4
5 Buffalo (0-0) -- 5 25 5
6 Cincinnati (0-0) -- 6 28 6
7 Green Bay (0-0) -- 2 18 7
8 Philadelphia (0-0) -- 3 17 8
9 Houston (0-0) -- 8 20 9
10 Dallas (0-0) -- 8 14 10
11 Miami (0-0) -- 10 23 11
12 NY Jets (0-0) -- 2 21 12
13 Cleveland (0-0) -- 9 31 13
14 LA Rams (0-0) -- 1 14 14
15 Jacksonville (0-0) -- 4 27 15
no q b who wears or wore # 1 ever won a superbowl eagles hurts lost t o cheifs
even warren moon never got to play in a sb trubisky of bears now with steelers tua t of dolphins and cardinals qb this year
eagles are 1-2 in superbowls s/u - 6.5 losers to wc raiders my local cried when i said $500 on raiders he said every one else has eagles
said see ya mon cash bet here======+4 dog grrrrrr still had to bet with local got ml +240 vs chiefs casg bet $500
then vs cheifs as a -1.5 fav 35-38 losers
you know andy reids record rested 98% s/u wins
his defensive coordinator won with Giants then with chiefs Eagles have all new corridanorors 1st time in a SB so folks thats it Chefs win
chiefs only loss was to tb all busted up lost thier center in finals tampa ranked #1 in overal defnse with tom brady n hc bruce arians
patrick no tds only 0 points blown out
im having hard time with totals in doors staying under 49
100% fact since 1977 no team that lost a meaningfull game to buccaneers ever won a superbowl 4 playodd teams teams lost to Tampa bay wasg week 1 at home vs wash-3.5 win 37-20
@ detroit lions -5.5 chalk lions lost 20-16
week 4 vs eagles as a home dog +1.5 crushed the birds 33-13
@chargers as +3 dog wacked them 40-21
eagles defense was built up on a bunch of losers carlonia no cove r brow ns no cover @ giants easy cover vs jax at home blown cover -9.5 win by 5 21-16
@ cowboys easy win 41*7 wash tnf - 4 win 26-18 @ rams as +2.5 dog win @ bust ted up injured ravens as 3 + dog win home - 12.5 vs carolina no cover 21-16 win
as usual vs steelrs home win but 100% after steelers they lose s/u n ats craoked @ wash 33-38 as a fav -3.5
final 2 home games cowboys b giants
the \n the final sos rankings
after week 18
5 th Kansas City (15-2) 0.8 1 17 7
17 th Philadelphia (16-3) 0.1 2 24 16
18 Dallas (7-10) 0.0 3 24 18
19 Tennessee (3-14) -0.1 3 26 17
20 Las Vegas (4-13) -0.1 1 30 19
21 Tampa Bay (10-8) -0.2 1 30 20
b efore w eek 1
1 Kansas City (0-0) -- 1 10 1
2 San Francisco (0-0) -- 2 22 2
3 Baltimore (0-0) -- 1 6 3
4 Detroit (0-0) -- 4 27 4
5 Buffalo (0-0) -- 5 25 5
6 Cincinnati (0-0) -- 6 28 6
7 Green Bay (0-0) -- 2 18 7
8 Philadelphia (0-0) -- 3 17 8
9 Houston (0-0) -- 8 20 9
10 Dallas (0-0) -- 8 14 10
11 Miami (0-0) -- 10 23 11
12 NY Jets (0-0) -- 2 21 12
13 Cleveland (0-0) -- 9 31 13
14 LA Rams (0-0) -- 1 14 14
15 Jacksonville (0-0) -- 4 27 15
no q b who wears or wore # 1 ever won a superbowl eagles hurts lost t o cheifs
even warren moon never got to play in a sb trubisky of bears now with steelers tua t of dolphins and cardinals qb this year
eagles are 1-2 in superbowls s/u - 6.5 losers to wc raiders my local cried when i said $500 on raiders he said every one else has eagles
said see ya mon cash bet here======+4 dog grrrrrr still had to bet with local got ml +240 vs chiefs casg bet $500
then vs cheifs as a -1.5 fav 35-38 losers
you know andy reids record rested 98% s/u wins
his defensive coordinator won with Giants then with chiefs Eagles have all new corridanorors 1st time in a SB so folks thats it Chefs win
chiefs only loss was to tb all busted up lost thier center in finals tampa ranked #1 in overal defnse with tom brady n hc bruce arians
patrick no tds only 0 points blown out
im having hard time with totals in doors staying under 49
