Superb Owl XXX

[Smitty]

no, those aren't roman numerals. nor is it what i'll be drinking.

much like kickserv, i'm rooting for a kendrick lamar nip slip at halftime. making this only the 2nd XXX-rated super bowl!!

as i mentioned in dave's thread, so far i've only bet hurts to score a TD. i will definitely be on karlaftis to record at least half a sack. and the first half under.

other than that... man, i don't like much about this game. it's hilarious that this kc team could be the first ever to three-peat, because they aren't all that good on either side of the ball. but, shit, somehow they keep winning. philly has a solid defense and SOOO many weapons on offense (plus a good o-line). they are a qb away from being really good. hurts had one good game all year. just happened to be in the nfc championship game. of course, that was against a terrible defense.

and i can't believe i'm saying this about an andy reid-led team, but i trust the kc coaching staff more than the philly coaching staff.

i should have time this afternoon to start digging into all the props. but my plan is to not dig TOO hard. i just looked back at my bets from 2 years ago, and i had 43 bets on that game. that is obviously insane, and i'd REALLY like to not repeat that.

 

[rocky mountain]

no, those aren't roman numerals. nor is it what i'll be drinking.

much like kickserv, i'm rooting for a kendrick lamar nip slip at halftime. making this only the 2nd XXX-rated super bowl!!

as i mentioned in dave's thread, so far i've only bet hurts to score a TD. i will definitely be on karlaftis to record at least half a sack. and the first half under.

other than that... man, i don't like much about this game. it's hilarious that this kc team could be the first ever to three-peat, because they aren't all that good on either side of the ball. but, shit, somehow they keep winning. philly has a solid defense and SOOO many weapons on offense (plus a good o-line). they are a qb away from being really good. hurts had one good game all year. just happened to be in the nfc championship game. of course, that was against a terrible defense.

and i can't believe i'm saying this about an andy reid-led team, but i trust the kc coaching staff more than the philly coaching staff.

i should have time this afternoon to start digging into all the props. but my plan is to not dig TOO hard. i just looked back at my bets from 2 years ago, and i had 43 bets on that game. that is obviously insane, and i'd REALLY like to not repeat that.

Holy shit 43 bets , that's a lot of action!

 

[Smitty]

Holy shit 43 bets , that's a lot of action!

it was nuts. and i was trying to track everything live. for example, i had jerick mckinnon over 19.5 yds rushing. each time he carried, i tallied up his yardage.

i'd like to get that a little more under control this year. hopefully no more than 20-25 wagers. it would help if i don't look at EVERY prop that's offered. but sometimes that's the only way you find some gems. i'll never forget my favorite bet last year... SF to lead in the 4th quarter and lose the game.

alright, i have a couple hours. here we go....

 

[Smitty]

rocky, maybe you'll know this, as the foremost expert on all things eagles... does one of their edge rushers consistently line up on the right side of the defensive line? or do they frequently switch sides? just wondering if one guy will have more opportunities lined up against thuney. he's a good player, but not a natural tackle.

 

[rocky mountain]

https://athlonsports.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/eagles-coach-delivers-concerning-update-before-super-bowl-lix

 

[Smitty]

some interesting tidbits...

KC has played in 4 of the last 5 SBs (in case you hadn't heard). at halftime in those 4 games, KC was...

tied 10-10 (won 31-20)
down 21-6 (lost 31-9)
down 24-14 (won 38-35)
down 10-3 (won 25-22)

Mahomes has thrown at least one INT in 3 of the 4 games. the only exception... the game against Philly.

in those 4 games, the chiefs have not picked off any qb not named Jimmy Garoppolo.

KC rush yards in those 4 games: 129, 107, 158, 130. O/U this game is 109.5.

I also thought this was very interesting. While Philly led the league in yards allowed per pass att (5.5, the 2nd best was 6.2), those numbers may be skewed. i'm stealing this from https://betiq.teamrankings.com/articles/super-bowl-2025-betting-preview/?anchor=GameWinner

 

[rocky mountain]

rocky, maybe you'll know this, as the foremost expert on all things eagles... does one of their edge rushers consistently line up on the right side of the defensive line? or do they frequently switch sides? just wondering if one guy will have more opportunities lined up against thuney. he's a good player, but not a natural tackle.

Nolan Smith has been ascending for us. Just googled this:
Nolan Smith plays weak-side defensive end for the Philadelphia Eagles. He's one of the featured edge rushers in the Eagles' 3-4 base package.

 

[Smitty]

https://athlonsports.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/eagles-coach-delivers-concerning-update-before-super-bowl-lix

hmmmm....

carter is obviously a stud, and if others get sick as well...

at this point, i'm leaning towards philly for the 1H, and maybe nothing for the game. so hopefully they can hold up for the first 30 minutes.

 

[Smitty]

Nolan Smith has been ascending for is. Just googled this:
Nolan Smith plays weak-side defensive end for the Philadelphia Eagles. He's one of the featured edge rushers in the Eagles' 3-4 base package.

thank you, sir. he is the only guy with shorter odds of getting a sack than karlaftis. i may bet smith and sweat, as well as karlaftis.

 

[rocky mountain]

some interesting tidbits...

KC has played in 4 of the last 5 SBs (in case you hadn't heard). at halftime in those 4 games, KC was...

tied 10-10 (won 31-20)
down 21-6 (lost 31-9)
down 24-14 (won 38-35)
down 10-3 (won 25-22)

Mahomes has thrown at least one INT in 3 of the 4 games. the only exception... the game against Philly.

in those 4 games, the chiefs have not picked off any qb not named Jimmy Garoppolo.

KC rush yards in those 4 games: 129, 107, 158, 130. O/U this game is 109.5.

I also thought this was very interesting. While Philly led the league in yards allowed per pass att (5.5, the 2nd best was 6.2), those numbers may be skewed. i'm stealing this from https://betiq.teamrankings.com/articles/super-bowl-2025-betting-preview/?anchor=GameWinner

View attachment 6969359

Answer: This is a really good "young defense" that had improved throughout this season as they have gained experience. And yes they have benefitted from some shitty teams, but they create turnovers and play good complementary ball. Not the Legion of Boom yet, but they should be able to cover KC wr's but are vulnerable over the middle and in the flats. Fast and powerful line too that is young. I expect the Chiefs to play fast pace and get ball out quickly to tire them and slow them down with Mahomes short game skills. But also expect them to sack Mahomes at least 3x.

 

[rocky mountain]

thank you, sir. he is the only guy with shorter odds of getting a sack than karlaftis. i may bet smith and sweat, as well as karlaftis.

I like all of these , Sweat normally comes up big in this games. Jones has a good shot at getting a sack too with all the rpo action especially if they are able to stall them in the gaps a bit.

 

[Smitty]

Answer: This is a really good "young defense" that had improved throughout this season as they have gained experience. And yes they have benefitted from some shitty teams, but they create turnovers and play good complementary ball. Not the Legion of Boom yet, but they should be able to cover KC wr's but are vulnerable over the middle and in the flats. Fast and powerful line too that is young. I expect the Chiefs to play fast pace and get ball out quickly to tire them and slow them down with Mahomes short game skills. But also expect them to sack Mahomes at least 3x.

good stuff, and reminds me of two things i wanted to touch upon....

with an extra week for KC to prepare, the loss of Dean at LB could be really big for the eagles.

a lot of the eagles' success in the playoffs has been due to TOs. they have forced 10 (TEN!!) in 3 games, while not turning the ball over. their only close game, against LA, they fumbled twice but recovered both. however... KC doesn't turn the ball over.

 

[Smitty]

ok, here's what i'm thinking so far. i'll post the final #s when i put the bets in.

Hurts TD 1X
Hunt TD 1X (+140)
Hunt Team First TD 1X (+450) He scored their first TD in both playoff games.
Hurts & Hunt (sounds like a law firm) to combine for 2 TDs 1X (+170)
Hurts rushing yds over (38.5) 1X. Per Nolan Dalla, KC allows 4.9 yards/rush to opposing QBs. that's friggin' high.
Nolan Smith over (.25) sacks 2.1 to win 2
Josh Sweat over (.25) sacks 2 to win 2.7
Karlaftis over (.25) sacks 4.1 to win 4
Kelce most receptions in game 1X (+205). otherwise, how will we be constantly reminded that TAY-TAY is watching???
Philly 1H +.5 (-125) 4X
1H under 23.5 (-105) 4X
KC 1H TT under 10.5 (-105) 2X

If KC falls behind by 10 again, I'll look to play them live.

I also like this, courtesy of Nolan Dalla... if you like KC to win, bet on Mahomes to win MVP (around +105). if they win, it's hard to imagine anyone else winning MVP, and +105 is better than -120). maybe i missed it, but i don't see this bet at either of the books i use.

 

[Smitty]

wanted to add this while i'm thinking about it...

in 3 playoff games, hurts has been sacked 11 times. only the rams game was close, and he was sacked 7 times that game.

 

[ejthree]

no, those aren't roman numerals. nor is it what i'll be drinking.

much like kickserv, i'm rooting for a kendrick lamar nip slip at halftime. making this only the 2nd XXX-rated super bowl!!

as i mentioned in dave's thread, so far i've only bet hurts to score a TD. i will definitely be on karlaftis to record at least half a sack. and the first half under.

other than that... man, i don't like much about this game. it's hilarious that this kc team could be the first ever to three-peat, because they aren't all that good on either side of the ball. but, shit, somehow they keep winning. philly has a solid defense and SOOO many weapons on offense (plus a good o-line). they are a qb away from being really good. hurts had one good game all year. just happened to be in the nfc championship game. of course, that was against a terrible defense.

and i can't believe i'm saying this about an andy reid-led team, but i trust the kc coaching staff more than the philly coaching staff. GL Smitty….

i should have time this afternoon to start digging into all the props. but my plan is to not dig TOO hard. i just looked back at my bets from 2 years ago, and i had 43 bets on that game. that is obviously insane, and i'd REALLY like to not repeat that.

My props so far are Butker ov 1.5 fg’s and Hollywood Brown ov 3.5 receptions -25..GL Smitty…

 

[rocky mountain]

Sweat and Smith are fast on the edges and Jalen Carter can carry 700 lbs towards the qb. Word is the flu has cleared through the team but who knows for sure.

 

[Smitty]

Sweat and Smith are fast on the edges and Jalen Carter can carry 700 lbs towards the qb. Word is the flu has cleared through the team but who knows for sure.

i've been a fan of carter since college when he got a hold of a qb, but the qb wasn't going down so carter picked him right up. but then the shocking part, for a college kid... he didn't body slam him and pick up a stupid penalty. he just held him in the air until the ref blew the whistle. i laughed when he did pretty much the same thing a couple weeks ago.

 

[ejthree]

Smith has hamstring issues and anyone who has ever dealt with those well they can hinder the hell out of your movement. Could be a factor even if minor...

 

[Smitty]

Smith has hamstring issues and anyone who has ever dealt with those well they can hinder the hell out of your movement. Could be a factor even if minor...

nolan smith? i see he had hammy issues last year, but nothing this year. he had a groin injury in early november, and those can certainly linger, but he's had 8 sacks in 11 games since then.

devonta smith, on the other hand, is dealing with some hammy issues currently.

 

[pointspred fred]

Everything you guys have said is spot on.

After watching this entire season however, I wonder if any of it will even matter.

The REAL question is... Will the apes in stripes control the game and control the score or the players?
These lobotomized Zebras can and DO literally change the outcomes of 50% of all games with their trash ass calls and non calls. It's really sad and compromises the integrity of the game. I hope they don't ruin it.