Syracuse (Pick-em)

[LBTSDBTS]

Syracuse Pick-em (Max Play 5 units)

I have no choice but to hammer this one. A&M did beat Texas in a close one at home. However, based on SOS, this game is no match. Per Sagarin A&M ranks at 94 the CUSE is at 14. A&M has only played 3 teams in the top 50 with a win previously mentioned against Texas. The cuse now has 6 wins against the top 50 with 1 top 10 win against arguably the best team in the land. Not to say that across the board the Big East is the top conference against a questionable number 5 Big 12. Despite early season failings, the CUSE did the unthinkable. A win against colorado to get in the tourney is not the same as wins against cincy, g-town, UCONN, and PITT!

It seems A&M is the vogue pick. However, I believe they are just happy to be in the tourney. Syracuse on the other hand has to believe they can make a run. The CUSE overcame too much to not get their chance against DUKE! How does this one get bet down 2.5 in less than 24 hours. It is never this easy!

Other than some potential halftime plays, I am going to make this my only play of the 1st day.

Jerry McNamara and Syracuse 67
a&m 59

:drinky: :drinky: :drinky:

 

[gman2]

can't ignore that it's their 5th game in 8 days. committee did them no favors by giving them a thursday game. only bright spot is that its a 9:30 start as opposed to a 12:15 afternoon start. pittsburgh caught a break and is playing kent late on friday. the orange were not so lucky.

 

[LBTSDBTS]

Great point! But the Saturday championship gives them 4 full days rest. Should be enough! We will see...

 

[i'm not the one]

i just have to jump into this thread because the topic is of great debate. first off, i have to agree with the original post and i do like the cuse to beat a & m pretty easily. a & m def. seem to be the sexy pick, with the public, and the media, and all the announcers.......they dont' think with the emotional run that cuse has had, they will be able to beat a & m. well first off this is complete bull sh*t. these guys are college kids. having to play on thr>>???? come on........they last played on saturday......do you think these guys are old men and need two months to recover???? if they had to, they would have come out with the same intensity on monday or tue, as they had this past weekend. gerry is a senior and is no way going to be "tired' in this contest. the cuse now believe, and its going to take a very good team to knock them off. a & m, although they made a good name for themselves this past weekend, are not that good of a team, and they will not be able to knock off the cuse on a neutral site. its obvious the cuse did not play up to their potential this yr. they showed great signs of life at times (end of yr at home vs w.va.....they played one of the best games i seen) but then sucked it up to close the season....then got the media spark, which i still think ignites them. but back to rest and being tired....these guys are in their early 20s and i am telling you, they are in good shape and will DEF. be ready to ball come thr. i could see if they had to play sunday or monday they would be tired...but this is almost a week......cuse is a good bet. if you need an upset in the 12 seed, take kent st. pitt is sooo overrated its unreal.

thats just my two cents...........

good luck in whatever you do

 

[gman2]

anyone who says "these are college kids, they wont be tired" are only half right. theres no doubt syracuse is going to come out with energy. but getting off to a good start is going to be vital for them. you can only go to the emotional well so many times in a short span and it doesnt matter if youre 10, 20, or 50. what works against the cuse is that they didnt have a single game of the 4 that didnt go down to the wire. if theyd have been able to win the first two rounds handily or maybe blown out pitt in the championship game, that would have helped. the good news is that syracuse is staying in the east, albeit with a little bit of travel down south. getting shipped out west across some time zones might have been a disaster for them. i dont think anyone is doubting that the cuse will lay it out there. and i dont think anyone is doubting that mcnamara will play balls out. but that doesnt mean theyre going to be at their best by any stretch.

 

[i'm not the one]

i am not disagreeing with you gman, i am just saying people like to use the "tired" excuse way too much in sports...or the "travel" excuse. it just reminds me of last year in baseball, i belive it was the angels or wsox (can't remember which team or which series) but on espn they were making a huge deal of traveling back and forth across the country in back to back to back days. espn tries to brainwash you into what they think you should pick. the end result was in fact, the "tired/travel" team won in the end. it was also funny on tongihts sportscenter when they were picking the round one picks, i dont think they picked more then 3 upsets, and the only upsets they picked on their show were 9seeds......i mean come on.....u know damn well there are going to be upsets...have a sack and pick one espn!!!!! ur points are valid, but in my opinion cuse is the better team this yr, and proved just how good they can play here to close it out. a & m played lights out to get there, and it was above avg. play....i just dont think its going to be enough for this cuse team right now. whatever way you go, i wish you nothing but luck. we are not betting each other, we are betting the books. as i stated in another thread....i think pitt is the 5 seed that can be saying bye bye. they have not impressed me at all this year. going through the motions so to say.

good luck

 

[sdf]

sure hope gmac still has some magic left. if not for his miracle 3 pointer against cincy, cuse wouldnt be in the tourney (and now they are suddenly a 5 seed?? this same team that had lost 3 in a row going into the tournament, including a 40 point loss to depaul.

tamu has competed well against quality teams (utexas, ku, ou).
gillespe is a solid coach (asst under bill self) and wont let them rest on their tourney bid. he has big plans for this program and has turned them around in just 1 year.

2 things that bother me:

why is a 5 seed a pickem over a 12? the other 5 seeds are a 6,7 and 6 point favs. what are the bookmakers saying here?? as much as cuse has been in the news the past 5 days, the public surely cant be riding tamu, who is NEVER on tv.

wager line consensus shows 65% on cuse, but the line has dropped? intruging.

on paper, i think cuse wins this....but having seen both teams play, i think their styles are somewhat similar and both are riding some strong momentum. boheim has clearly coached more here, but billy is no stranger to the tournament either. should be entertaining.

gl

 

[bryanz]

A&M will be the favorite by game time. This line has moved the way I thought it would.

 

[sdf]

why would a 12 seed be a fav over a 5 seed?

there's clearly not a crapload of $ coming in on TAMU that I can see.
maybe i'm wrong.

and if the public isnt banging tamu, then who is?

 

[bryanz]

you are right about every thing you said. the money is on syr and has been since the line opened and has come down from 2.5 to 1. (WHY)... If they make A&M the favorite late they will get more money on them. Most betters don't have any idea were the money is. Just because the line moves up or down,many times has no direct correlation on the money.

 

[ezpickin]

you are right about every thing you said. the money is on syr and has been since the line opened and has come down from 2.5 to 1. (WHY)... If they make A&M the favorite late they will get more money on them. Most betters don't have any idea were the money is. Just because the line moves up or down,many times has no direct correlation on the money.

Hi Bryan,

How do you know where the money is? I assume it is more than just a review of some "consensus" sites...

 

[bryanz]

I don't know for sure but all the sites say Syr, and you would think thats the way it is. It's early we still have two days, the public will be on Syr. Look at that other thread about this game. This is a funny line. I think if we were to ask most before it came out,many would say it's off.. The question we need to answer is why.

 

[sdf]

i show one book indicating pick % on tamu...53-47%. not terribly overwhelming. also doesnt indicate amount of money being bet.

 

[Sun Tzu]

bryan that is just spinning.....the line tells you the play is AM....Cuse should roll them, but my guess is they dont....my brother in law from Syracuse has already unloaded on AM...

 

[kegray1]

Putting the line aside for a second.
I have seen both these teams many times and really don't think A&M matches up well against Syracuse.
Syracuse has the bodies down low to throw at Jones and the Syracuse zone will give him fits.

I said it before and will say it again.
Syracuse is the better,team,with the tougher schedule,and a better conference.
The team names alone should put 3-4 points on this game.
When the season began and you were to say Syracuse is a 5 playing A&M a 12 then you would have said this line is 8-10 points.

Vegas is not going to make me doubt Syracuse is the play.

 

[sdf]

Putting the line aside for a second.
I have seen both these teams many times and really don't think A&M matches up well against Syracuse.
Syracuse has the bodies down low to throw at Jones and the Syracuse zone will give him fits.

I said it before and will say it again.
Syracuse is the better,team,with the tougher schedule,and a better conference.
The team names alone should put 3-4 points on this game.
When the season began and you were to say Syracuse is a 5 playing A&M a 12 then you would have said this line is 8-10 points.

Vegas is not going to make me doubt Syracuse is the play.

TAMU is a much better team than they were at the beginning of the season. So, sure, Cuse by 8 over TAMU in November sounds right. But sounds very wrong in March. You should know that since you've watched the Aggies many times.

Sure hope that cuse team that got blown out by 50 to Depaul a couple of weeks snt the one that shows up for this game.

One reason to like TAMU...they rarely get blown out. They can generally hang around with most teams because of their defense.

i'm still confused how cuse got a 5 seed when last week they were on the bubble and needing a win vs cincy to get in the tourney
:shrug:


i can agree tamu may have troubles with the Cuse zone. tamu shot well from outside in the conference tourney, but they may not on thursday. i think whomever shoots better from 3 pt land will end up winning this game. advantage Cuse.

 

[kegray1]

A&M does hang around in just about every game,but fact is they are 2-6 vs. teams in the tourney.
1 of the wins was over N'western St.

I have no doubt that Syracuse can throw up a lemon game but still think they have seen and beaten better teams than this Aggie squad.

A&M has come a long way and they are a much better team than they were in November. Carter has stepped up.
A&M biggest problem is the have 2 VERY WEAK STARTERS.
Chris Walker is below average. He is a former intramural baller.They hype how he is a great defender,but he is not.They just have to say something positive about the guy.

Pompey is a very below average PF.Not aggresive onm the boards and has no offensive game whatsoever.

I think Syracuse will expose these guys.

 

[bryanz]

I think Syr is the right side,so they can move it all they want. I like Syr up to 5. I think this is a false line with many false moves to come. Look at the line moves on Kent St on sat and Duke on Sunday. I posted a few thoughts in the other thread on this game . As soon as I saw the open, the line has done what I that it would, no spin here,maybe I'm wrong but don't think so. Forget the line pick the winner. I may not even play this game. Just trying to help. Like I said it's early,let's see where it goes.

 

[kegray1]

Syracuse is now getting a point.
This just baffles me.Play is Syracuse(+100).

 

[MrSports]

Some valid points but a few things stick out in the thread:

1) It really doesnt matter if A&M can generally hang around with teams and not get blown out only because they are not catching 8-9 points here. The game is a PK. So they can hang around the intire game and easily get beat.

2) It is extremely baffling why a 12 seed is a PK with a 5. Ive never seen that before in my life. Something is def fishy here, especially with Cuse's momentum coming in. I get the feeling Vegas is begging for Cuse money.

3) Fatigue and travel should be a non-factor. They've had plenty of time to rest and be prepared for the tourney. If it was over-night travel after a game then maybe.........

BEST BET: STAY AWAY