talk to me about this system!

[wareagle]

SEASON ~ 25-11-2 +1,710
WEEK 1 ~ 9-4-1 +740
WEEK 2 ~ 14-7-1 +970

When ever the spread is more than 33% of the over/under total you parlay both the FAVE/OVER and parlay the DOG/UNDER

So for instance the Texas/North Texas line is 41 and the total is 45
so then the plays would be....
$110 Parlay Texas and Over
$110 Parlay North Texas and Under

A loss would result in losing both parlays -$220
A win would result in winning one parlay +$290 but losing the other parlay -$100 and net profiting +$180

Thursday Game....

West Viginia -16.5 / Over 47
Maryland +16.5 / Under 47

Saturday Afternoon Games...

Virginia Tech -34.5 / Over 44.5
Duke +34.5 / Under 44.5

Ohio State -29.5 / Over 45.5
Cincinnatie +29.5 / Under 45.5

Georgia -16.5 / Over 38
Alabama-Birmingham +16.5 / Under 38

Georgia Tech -17 / Over 37.5
Troy +17 / Under 37.5

Northwestern -17 / Over 52.5
Eastern Michigan +17 / Under 52.5

Minnesota -41.5 / Over 53.5
Temple +41.5 / Under 53.5

Saturday Night Games...

Texas -32 / Over 55.5
Rice +32 / Under 55.5

Oaklahoma State -29.5 / Over 56.5
Florida Atlantic +29.5 / Under 56.5

Alabama -24.5 / Over 40
UL Monroe +24.5 / Over 40

Tulsa -19.5 / Over 48
North Texas +19.5 / Under 48

Northern Illinios -23 / Over 48
Buffalo +23 / Under 48

Utah State -20.5 / Over 44
Utah +20.5 / Under 44

Texas A&M -27 / Over 48.5
Army +27 / Under 48.5

 

[LA Burns]

How would there be a positive W/L record if the best you could do in one game was 1-1?

 

[wareagle]

How would there be a positive W/L record if the best you could do in one game was 1-1?

i dont know...that's why i'm trying to understand this. it does make any sense to me either:com:

 

[Cie]

1-1 on parlays @ 2.6 to 1 odds makes you +1.6 units per game if one of the parlays hit and -2.0 units if both lose.

 

[texasAUtiger]

SEASON ~ 25-11-2 +1,710
WEEK 1 ~ 9-4-1 +740
WEEK 2 ~ 14-7-1 +970

When ever the spread is more than 33% of the over/under total you parlay both the FAVE/OVER and parlay the DOG/UNDER

So for instance the Texas/North Texas line is 41 and the total is 45
so then the plays would be....
$110 Parlay Texas and Over
$110 Parlay North Texas and Under

A loss would result in losing both parlays -$220
A win would result in winning one parlay +$290 but losing the other parlay -$100 and net profiting +$180

EDIT: See new post below.

 

[Fluk]

1-1 on parlays @ 2.6 to 1 odds makes you +1.6 units per game if one of the parlays hit and -2.0 units if both lose.

That would explain the +1710 on the year, but I don't think it is possible to have a favorable win loss record. By nature of the system - you at best could be .500 - and odds are, would be closer to the .300 range or so. Although, as we all know the most important thing is the profit, not the win/loss.

 

[Cie]

That would explain the +1710 on the year, but I don't think it is possible to have a favorable win loss record. By nature of the system - you at best could be .500 - and odds are, would be closer to the .300 range or so. Although, as we all know the most important thing is the profit, not the win/loss.

Exactly, it would appear that you would certainly be closer to 25% than 50% win ratio.

If anyone tracks the performance I am interested in the results, but it seemd flawed from the start.

GL:weed:

 

[Cie]

I just noticed all replies to this thread are from LSU or Aub fans. Are you guys as anxious as I am for this game to start???/

I wish GL to you Aub guys this weekend. If you beat LSU this weekend I will certainly root for you to win out, and not only due to my play on Aub to win the BCS @ +1800.


GL:weed:

 

[texasAUtiger]

SEASON ~ 25-11-2 +1,710
WEEK 1 ~ 9-4-1 +740
WEEK 2 ~ 14-7-1 +970

When ever the spread is more than 33% of the over/under total you parlay both the FAVE/OVER and parlay the DOG/UNDER

So for instance the Texas/North Texas line is 41 and the total is 45
so then the plays would be....
$110 Parlay Texas and Over
$110 Parlay North Texas and Under

A loss would result in losing both parlays -$220
A win would result in winning one parlay +$290 but losing the other parlay -$100 and net profiting +$180

OK I think I misinterpreted you the first time. Let's look at the outcomes (when you parlay Tex/Over as one and NT/Under as the other):

Tex, Over => W, L => 290-110=180
Tex, Und => L, L => -220
NT, Over => L, L => -220
NT, Und => L, W => 290-110=180

Expected Value = .50($180)+(.50)(-$220)=-$20 per play. :nono:

 

[wareagle]

You can't just pick one game and do it. You ahve to play all of the games that fit the system...

It's won every week.:sadwave:

 

[texasAUtiger]

You can't just pick one game and do it. You ahve to play all of the games that fit the system...

It's won every week.:sadwave:

It doesn't matter. The play is negative expected value just like playing blackjack in the casino... the edge you are giving up might be "small" but in the long run it WILL be realized. (In fact, here the edge is nontrivial: you are playing $220 on each pair of these plays and the EV is -$20 which is approximately -9.1% of your play.)

Play it the course of the season and you will lose money my man.

 

[PAX]

The system must count a win as if it won one and lost the other and a loss as losing both since at 1-1 you make money. So if the record was 25-11 it has picked 25 that went 1-1 and made money and 11 that went 0-2 and lost.

25*(260-110)=3750
11*(-220)=2420

Net profit = 1330

PAX

 

[addikted]

I like your thinking with this system wareagle and am interested in seeing the results the next couple weeks. Good luck!!

 

[addikted]

The system must count a win as if it won one and lost the other and a loss as losing both since at 1-1 you make money. So if the record was 25-11 it has picked 25 that went 1-1 and made money and 11 that went 0-2 and lost.

25*(260-110)=3750
11*(-220)=2420

Net profit = 1330

PAX

:grins: :thumb: :grins:

 

[texasAUtiger]

The system must count a win as if it won one and lost the other and a loss as losing both since at 1-1 you make money. So if the record was 25-11 it has picked 25 that went 1-1 and made money and 11 that went 0-2 and lost.

25*(260-110)=3750
11*(-220)=2420

Net profit = 1330

PAX

Nothing in my analysis precludes this. In both the W,L and L,W cases I recorded outcomes of +180 reflecting the positive outcome when you go 1-1.

However, this cannot be done in a vaccuum: one must account for the expected value of the play, i.e. the sum of the products of net result times the probability of that result, which I did above.

Without a doubt if it has gone 25-11 he will have shown a net profit: I am not disputing that anymore than someone who has won 25 of 36 equally bet blackjack hands is sitting with more chips in front of him than he started with. But, in the long run, we all know what will happen....

Just trying to help.

PS Besides, if this "system" had a positive EV, don't you think the online books would have it blocked just like they do any other "highly correlated" wagers. :SIB

 

[Fluk]

I just noticed all replies to this thread are from LSU or Aub fans. Are you guys as anxious as I am for this game to start???/

I wish GL to you Aub guys this weekend. If you beat LSU this weekend I will certainly root for you to win out, and not only due to my play on Aub to win the BCS @ +1800.


GL:weed:

No intent to hijack the thread, although if any offense is taken Cie Grant started it!

Cie I am pumped about the game. A bit nervous, as the teams appear very evenly matched. I obvioulsy feel much more comfortable playing this at home as opposed to Death Valley. I really don't have a good feel on LSU, I think that is why this one is so hard to predict. Both teams come in with virtually no challenge in first 2 games. I just hope ND can go down this week as well as USC, that would make everything much sweeter - so whoever does win can have the driver's seat into BCS.

Good luck to you.

 

[c20916]

The system must count a win as if it won one and lost the other and a loss as losing both since at 1-1 you make money. So if the record was 25-11 it has picked 25 that went 1-1 and made money and 11 that went 0-2 and lost.

25*(260-110)=3750
11*(-220)=2420

Net profit = 1330

PAX

It would be 260-100 as there is no juice on parlays, unless he is playing $110, but then your win would not be $260.

 

[amich1]

these plays are in fact blocked @ most online books fwiw

 

[texasAUtiger]

I don't know why since there is no edge to the player. Seems like a slow drain on a player's BR which should be what a site would love..... Juice, juice, juice.

 

[UtahFootball]

This is a huge system, I have been using it for a while and have not had a losing week. The only problem is 98% of books will not accept it because they know it will cost them $ in the long run. A local is your best bet, and I lost mine right b4 the season so i need another. Any1 in utah let me know =). Back to the system, every game you win nets you 1.6 units, you lose 1 on the loseing side and win 2.6 on the winning side, every game that is a loss loses you 2 units, so if you can stay in the 60% range you can make some serious money. Gl all