talk to me about this system!
- Thread starter wareagle
- Start date
I am too lazy to go back to 04, but I can gather 05 results in a few minutes...will let you know.
At 2.6 to 1 odds for 2-team parlay using $100/bet:
102 wins = (26520-10200) = 16320
63 losses = -12600
Total = +3720
Return in Investment = 11.27% ...not bad
102 wins = (26520-10200) = 16320
63 losses = -12600
Total = +3720
Return in Investment = 11.27% ...not bad
I just noticed all replies to this thread are from LSU or Aub fans. Are you guys as anxious as I am for this game to start???/
I wish GL to you Aub guys this weekend. If you beat LSU this weekend I will certainly root for you to win out, and not only due to my play on Aub to win the BCS @ +1800.
GL:weed:
Definitely ready for the big game!
LSU definitely has my respect, and both teams look really strong. I don't see either team losing to anyone from the East, so it looks like this one means a trip to Atlanta yet again.
Should be a battle, best of luck Cie!
I do most of my betting through a local guy and dont really play very many parlays, but dont some of the offshore books offer you better odds than the 2.6, i was thinking i saw an add in cardplayer awhile back that one was offering 3:1 on two teamers, that would be a huge difference in this system.
The system will work. Track it over the past 4 years. It has won all 4.
Only problem is that books have caught on and won't let you do it.
It is total bullshit that the books don't let you do it, but unfortunately once they catch on, they block the plays.
Pussy books.
Only problem is that books have caught on and won't let you do it.
It is total bullshit that the books don't let you do it, but unfortunately once they catch on, they block the plays.
Pussy books.
I'd think so but on BetUS if you try to parlay any two pieces of the same game it is blocked. I tested it this afternoon.
But it is still a losing play mathematically. (Assuming the figures given above are correct... I don't know for sure since I never do parlays.)
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If one assumes the line and total are such that the fav/dog and over/under have equal probabilities, then the calculations above prove the system is negative EV.
*If* one can show long term profit from this system----and that would be the emphasis, long term---it would be that there is a correlation between the 33% "filter" and hitting one of the two winning parlayed bets. This is mathematically equivalent to saying
EV=-220p+180q where p=prob(LL), q=prob(one win)
where q>.5.
Note that my original calculations were done assuming p=q=.5.
The reason why some online bookies block the wagers are because of the spread. 14 or more points voids any parlay into the total for the same game.
Hey wareagle or others,
Are you saying you have found (reputable) online books for which these plays are not blocked?
Are you saying you have found (reputable) online books for which these plays are not blocked?
so, if you had bet $100 on each one you would have been up $1120?
2.6*7=$1820 win
1.0*7=$700 loss
2.6*7=$1820 win
1.0*7=$700 loss
NOPE...YOU WOULD HAVE LOST 200*7
FAV/OVER=W
DOG/UNDR=L
OVERALL W OF .6
FAV/OVER=L
DOG/UND=L
OVERALL LOSS OF 2.0
SO .6*7=420
2.0*7= 1400
LOSS OF 980
so lets get this straight, this was first time system lost in what 2 years and it lost $980 on the $100 unit system ... damn, I hope no one bit the bullet (curious if anyone admits to it?)... and I know WarEagle is trying to help but it's ironic how often any streak gets snapped when posted :scared
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Isn't it 1.6*7 for a win
so 1.6*7=1120
and 2*7=1400
Net loss of 280?
Just trying to figure it out.
so 1.6*7=1120
and 2*7=1400
Net loss of 280?
Just trying to figure it out.
