Where the Action is: Sharp Money Shrinks Super Bowl Total
The spread for Super Bowl XLVII has grabbed plenty of attention the last few days, sinking to as low as San Francisco -3. Now, the total for Sunday?s Big Game is on the move and has dipped to 47 points at some online sportsbooks after opening as high as 49.
We talk to Aron Black of online book Bet365 and veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of William Hill Sportsbooks in Nevada about the adjustments to the Super Bowl total.
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers ? Open: 49, Move: 48, Move: 47
The total for Super Bowl XLVII has been slowly declining since opening but the action has picked up in the past three days, moving the number from 47.5 to 47 at some markets.
The action on the under is going hand-in-hand with the early money on the Ravens, with bettors believing Baltimore?s best chance is to turn this into a defensive grinder, much like its 28-13 victory over the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship.
"The move is more based on what sharps are betting, as many see this as more of a defensive battle, regardless of who wins,? Black told Covers. ?So when you look at the total from the perspective of how many touchdowns will be needed to go over, you have to say six at least, which is a big number when you consider the defense on both sides.?
In Nevada, most sportsbooks are sticking to 47.5 points knowing that the popular play among the tourists ? expected to start showing up Friday ? will be the over. According to Vaccaro, there is a lean toward the under in terms of money and wager count but that won?t last long.
?We are holding (at 47.5) because of the recreational bettors? tendency to side with the favorite and the over. It?s not a bad idea to take all the under you can,? Vaccaro told Covers. ?We are a little top heavy (on the under) but that difference will be gobbled up in a matter of a few hours come Sunday.?
Online books are expecting similar betting patterns from Super Bowl bettors. Black sees the total climbing back to 47.5 or beyond as Sunday?s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff draws closer. He notes that the Ravens and 49ers are averaging a combined score of more than 66 points in the postseason.
?Take a touchdown off both and it?s still over 47,? he says. ?I can see more people looking at the over. And when you look at how the parlay tickets, buy/sells, teaser/parlay cards will get played, I think a lot of places will move back to at least 47.5.?
Baltimore currently owns a 10-9 over/under count this season, going 1-2 over/under in the playoffs. San Francisco is 11-6-1 over/under, including a 2-0 over/under postseason mark.
--------------
Computer Model Says 49ers Over Ravens In Super Bowl XLVII
By Spike Eskin
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) ? Super Bowl XLVII will only be played once, and it will be on the field in New Orleans. But with two weeks to fill in between the championship games and the Super Bowl, there?s some time to run some numbers.
PredictionMachine.com, a website that predicts the outcome of sporting events based on computer models, ran more than just ?some? numbers. They ran Sunday?s 49ers vs. Ravens match-up through their system 50,000 times to see what the most likely outcome of the game will be.
The 49ers won the game 66.9% of the time, and scored an average of seven points more than the Ravens in the simulations (28.6 to 21.3), with San Francisco outgaining the Ravens by an average of 85 yards per game.
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completed an average of 20.9 of 35.3 passes per game, with 1.3 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions. The 49ers? Colin Kaepernick completed an average of 17.2 of 28.8 passes, for 1.6 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions, and rushed for 38 yards.
The 49ers get the edge in the following matchups: San Francisco run offense vs. Baltimore run defense, San Francisco pass offense vs. Baltimore pass defense, and the Baltimore run offense vs. San Francisco run defense (they note this as the difference maker). The only advantage that Baltimore has is their special teams.
This particular computer model has predicted the correct winner of seven of the last nine Super Bowls.
_________________________
Wiseguy Report: Sharp Money on Super Bowl Props
by Ted Sevransky
It?s no secret where the early money has come on the Super Bowl. At the opening number, San Francisco was as high as a 5.5-point favorite offshore, with mostly -5?s here in Las Vegas. But we?ve seen steady Baltimore money pour in since that time, driving the line down to the -3.5 or -4 range at every sportsbook in town; numbers that are currently attracting two-way action. I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff.
The early sharp money has also come in support of the under. One prominent offshore book opened the total at 52.5, and here in Vegas we saw several books open with a total of 50. Through the first week of Super Bowl betting, the under has been a popular wiseguy choice. The prevailing current offshore number is 47.5; here in Vegas we?re looking at mostly 48?s. I do expect the public to be squarely on the over Sunday ? this total could easily get bet up a notch or two.
The Super Bowl is a unique animal when it comes to moneylines, particularly at the sportsbooks here in Vegas. We get a boatload of tourists in town for the big game, and those tourists have a strong tendency to bet the moneyline when supporting the underdog. Right now, San Francisco is in the -170 to -180 range on the moneyline, with the Ravens sitting at +150 to +160 in most locations.
But as we approach the game, we can expect the books to start adjusting the moneyline downwards to cope with the influx of Ravens ML bets. Don?t be shocked if at some point over the weekend, we see the 49ers in the -160 or -165 range, more typical of a three-point favorite, not a four-point favorite. Bettors who favor the 49ers are likely to pounce on that marketplace inefficiency in the 24-48 hours before kickoff.
For professional level bettors, wagering on the Super Bowl is not about side, total or moneyline bets ? it?s about the props! Last year?s Patriots/Giants big game matchup generated just shy of $94 million in wagers at Nevada?s sportsbooks; a high percentage of which was on the proposition wagers. This year, sportsbooks are anticipating similar action.
The MGM/Mirage books were the first to open any proposition wagers to the betting public, hanging lines for all four quarters of the game. The sharps pounced all over MGM?s numbers, flipping the plus prices on the two sides. For example, San Francisco opened -0.5 (-125) for the first quarter. Within hours, the 49ers were -0.5 (+115).
Sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback, talking about the flurry of sharp money, right from the get-go. ?They pounded us. It was amazing. It was just big bets ? limit play, limit play, limit play at every property. Just like sharks.?
But it?s Jay Kornegay and his staff at the LVH who are the true pioneers; the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I?ll happily give them the attention they deserve here. The LVH numbers were posted this past Thursday, and their 24-page prop booklet features more than 300 additional wagering opportunities.
I was at the Superbook when the numbers were posted, and frankly, most of the sharp bettors in the book seemed to be extremely disappointed in what they found. Here are quotes that I overheard from four different pro bettors who all wished to remain anonymous.
?These are the best prop numbers I?ve ever seen.? ?I have more respect for the LVH today than I?ve ever had.? ?Jeez, they used to just throw stuff up there; not anymore!? ?My goal is to bet as little as possible at the LVH. I want to bet against the dum-dum books.?
But for all the whining and complaining about how good the LVH?s prop sheet was this year, those same pro bettors weren?t shy about laying down limit wagers. Here are some of the most popular wiseguy bets from the LVH this past weekend. If you?re looking for one prevailing theme on these wagers, it?s ?less offense, more defense?. All props listed are at -110 both ways unless otherwise noted.
Bettors were bearish on Ray Rice. Rice?s rushing yards opened at 66.5, but that was bet down to 63.5. Rice?s rushing yards opened at +11.5 vs. Frank Gore?s rushing yards, bet up to +17.5.
The Ravens team rushing total opened at over/under 108.5; bet down to 100.5 by Sunday night.
Rice?s receiving yardage total was bet down from 29.5 to 25.5.
His longest reception was bet down from 16.5 yards to 14.5 yards, with a +110 on the over.
His longest rush was bet down from -14.5 to -13.5.
The under 6.5 yards on Rice?s first reception now has a -140 price tag attached.
Even Rice?s rushing attempts were bet down from 17.5 to 17.
But while bettors were fading Rice, they were supporting his backfield mate Bernard Pierce.
Pierce?s rushing yards total got bet up from 29.5 to 32.5.
His longest rush (O/U 9.5 yards) now has a -120 attached to the over and his total receiving yards went from over 1.5 (+140) to over 1.5 (-110).
The LVH wasn?t shy about moving numbers, not just the juice. Torrey Smith?s first reception got bet down from over/under 14.5 yards to O/U 13.5 yards, -120 on the under.
Dennis Pitta?s first reception got bet down from 9.5 to 8.5 yards, and his total receiving yards were bet down from 47.5 to 45.5.
Frank Gore?s receiving yards went from an opener of 19.5 to the current number of 14.5.
LaMichael James' longest rush went from 13.5 to 11.5 with a +110 on the over, and his total rushing yards got bet down from 30.5 to 25.
Many of these bets were ?arbitrage? type wagers, as bettors took advantage of the variance in the posted numbers both here in town and offshore. And bettors took their time to read the fine print. LVH ?total and assisted tackles? numbers excluded sacks, but included special teams tackles; not the case at some other books.
Perhaps that?s a big reason why Terrell Suggs O/U 4.5 tackles went from over -145 to over +110 at the LVH, without a corresponding move elsewhere.
The cross-sports props are always a thought provoking handicap, and we saw early money come on props involving hockey, soccer, basketball and golf.
Barcelona?s Lionel Messi goals opened at -0.5 (-125) vs. Frank Gore touchdowns, bet up to -170.
The New York Islanders total points from John Tavares vs. the total number of scores in the last two minutes of the first half went from pk +100 to pk +150.
Dwyane Wade points vs. the Raptors opened -4 (-110) vs. Colin Kaepernick completions.
Kaepernick +4 now has a -140 price tag attached.
Chris Bosh points vs. the largest lead of the Super Bowl went from -0.5 (-110) to -145.
And Lee Westwood?s final round score at the Dubai Desert Classic vs Ray Rice rushing yards went from -3 to -5.5.
Let?s not forget special teams!
Bettors didn?t touch 49ers kicker David Akers' total points (O/U 7.5), but Baltimore?s Justin Tucker went from 7.5 (U -120) to under -160.
And money came on the over for both Sam Koch?s longest punt (56.5 yards, O -130) and Andy Lee?s longest punt (57.5, O -140)
Arguably the single biggest mover from the LVH openers came on the ?total net yards for both teams? prop. That number opened at 749.5 and got bet down again and again, currently sitting at 718.5 yards.
_________________________
WUNDERDOG
Game: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 2/03 6:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on First Quarter UNDER 10 -135 (risk 3 to win 3.7)
Prop Bet
During the 2012-13 regular season, an average of 9.4 points per game where scored in the first quarter. In this game we have two good offenses and two good defenses. Baltimore games averaged 10.0 first quarter points while San Francisco games averaged just 7.9 per game. Average the two and we get 9.0 points which is over a full point and a half lower than this posted total. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low scoring one as an average of 8.3 points per game has been scored. And, it's been getting lower-scoring! Twelve of the last fourteen Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter. One of the years this bet went OVER was in 2011 but that came only thanks to a very rare pick-6 touchdown. Last year was one of the UNDERs as 9 points were scored. The last five years have seen an average of 7.8 points scored in the first quarter (3, 3, 10, 14, 9). The quarterbacks in those games: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. As the magnitude of this game seems grows each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game. Each team has prepared meticulously but they still need some time to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent. Above all, they are trying to avoid big mistakes early. So the play calling, and the play on the field, tend to be conservative in the early going. Even in Super Bowl games that were expected to be very high-scoring, the 1st quarter has gone UNDER the total much more than not. Five years ago the total between the Giants and Patriots was 53.5. In that game, 3 points were scored in the first-quarter. Three years ago, the total in the Saints-Colts game was set at 56.5. The 1st quarter total went under the 10.5 line. Last year the total was 53.5 and the first-quarter went UNDER. With twelve of the last fourteen Super Bowls producing 10 or fewer points in the first quarter, the UNDER is the play here.
----------------
Super Bowl XLVII Prop Pick of the Day
The lead-up to the Super Bowl can be the longest two weeks of a sports bettor?s life. Thankfully, some of Covers Experts sharpest minds are willing to hold you over with a Super Bowl prop pick for each day heading into the Big Game on February 3.
Sean Murphy - Longest Touchdown Scored
Over 46.5 yards (-110)
Under 46.5 yards (-129)
Pick: Over 46.5 yards (-110)
Both the Ravens and 49ers have big play potential, not only on offense, but on defense and special teams as well. I like the matchup of Baltimore's down field passing attack against an aggressive 49ers secondary in particular. Joe Flacco won't hesitate to take his shots with Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. On the other side, we've already seen Colin Kaepernick run for a 56-yard touchdown in these playoffs. Both teams feature home-run hitters out of the backfield as well, and I'm not talking about Ray Rice and Frank Gore. Don't be surprised if we see a long touchdown run from either Bernard Pierce or LaMichael James in this game.
Steve Merril - Total Pass Completions
Over 38.5 (-125)
Under 38.5 (-105)
Pick: Under 38.5 (-105)
Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick completed a total of 84 passes in five playoff games. For the season, Flacco (19.4) and Kaepernick (16.4) completed an average of 35.8 passes per game. Their combined pass attempts prop equals 61 which means they need to complete 64 percent of their passes for this prop to cash. With two strong secondaries, we don?t expect that to happen.
Matt Fargo - Team to make longest field goal
Baltimore (-125)
San Francisco (-105)
Pick: Baltimore (-125)
Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has missed only three field goals all season and is a perfect 4-4 from beyond 50 yards. Conversely, David Akers for San Francisco has not attempted a field goal over 40 yards in the playoffs where he was just 9-19 during the regular season. Not only does Baltimore have the better chance of making a long one, but the 49ers won't even be taking a chance on attempting anything long.
-----------------
NFL Prop Shop: Off-the-wall Super Bowl Props Picks
by Sean Murphy
With plenty of downtime before the big game kicks off on February 3, let's have a little fun with four off-the-wall, non-game related props currently being offered.
National anthem - Will Alicia Keys mess up the words?
Yes +200
No -300
Pick: No (-300)
Seriously? After Christina Aguilera fumbled the anthem a couple of years ago in Dallas, there's no chance we'll see a true professional like Alicia Keys botch the anthem in New Orleans. I'm surprised this prop isn't being priced north of -500 to be honest. The price is still steep, but this should be a gimme.
Halftime show - Will Jay-Z make a cameo appearance?
Yes +110
No -150
Pick: Yes (+110)
I don't think there's anyone out there that doesn't see this one coming. With his wife taking the stage, you can bet that Jay-Z will have a hand in the halftime show. Rumors have pushed the price down, allowing us to step in and earn a plus-money return on what I consider a high-percentage play.
Halftime show - What song will Beyonce open with?
Single Ladies +225
Jumpin' Jumpin'+1,000
Crazy In Love +180
Irreplaceable +1,000
If I Were A Boy +600
Halo +600
Best Thing I Never Had +1,000
Diva +500
Any Other Song +150
Pick: Crazy In Love (+180)
The choice is simple here. Beyonce goes with her most well-known and well-received song to open the set. Reports from US Weekly say an event insider has leaked the set list, with Beyonce opening her solo set with "Crazy In Love" before reuniting with her Destiny's Child bandmates. We might even be able to kill two birds with one stone, as this would be an ideal spot for a Jay-Z sighting.
Barack's team - Which team will President Barack Obama select to win?
Baltimore +300
San Francisco +375
No Selection -575
Pick: Baltimore (+300)
Keep in mind, there are three selections being offered, with fence-sitter being the third option. I'll take a shot with Barack backing his neighbors from Baltimore. The Ravens have paid their dues over the years and they just seem like the type of hard-working team that the president would support. Of course, fence-sitter is being priced at -575 for a reason, so tread llghtly
------------------
Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bets
Baltimore Ravens (13-6 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) vs San Francisco 49'ers (13-4-1 SU, 11-7 ATS)
Super Bowl XLVII (47)
Date and Time: Sunday February 3rd, 2013 6:30 p.m. EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
TV: CBS
By TimmieB, Football Handicapper.
Point Spread: Balt +4/SF -4
Over/Under Total: 48.5
So you've heard that 'Prop Bets' (Proposition Bets) are a sucker's bet! "It's a waste of money", "No one ever wins Prop Bets", we've all heard the same junk about Prop Bets. But look at it this way: Giants-Pats last year, Super Bowl 46, "Any Team scores a safety anytime" bet went out at +2500 odds and someone got paid on a two-dollar chance. Same Super Bowl: "First Score is a Safety" carrying +10000 odds and another 'Sucker' got paid. And one more time: "Giants score very first score of game for safety" went out at around +18000 and another 'Sucker' is dancing to the bank! Do you think that's a fluke? How about the Ravens walking into Denver and tying Peyton Manning's Broncos with a last minute, Flacco- Heave-Ho on a 3rd and 3 from the Ravens 30 yard-line with 31 seconds left and ZERO timeouts! After that, the Ravens kick a field goal in double OT to win! If you played an OT win Prop Bet you definitely made some cash.
Don't be fooled; there can be some great values found in Prop Bets and you're not a Sucker for playing them. And with most online sportsbooks, you can even suggest your particular 'niche' Prop Bet in an email such as "Total number of tackles for Ray Lewis" or "Over/Under Total field goal tries by 49ers in the first half" and the Sports Book will be open to give odds-if they think it'll make money. Most people play the Spread or the Over/Under because they're used to it and: "Everyone else does it!" Maybe, this year, instead of gripping your chair and hoping your team can hold on and cover, you might be able to relax knowing that Randy Moss already caught a touchdown pass in the first half and you'll make money. Let's look at some of the better Prop Bets being offered for this Super Bowl (47).
For bettors looking at the Ravens to Win and the total being Under, a +700 two-dollar bet on Ray Lewis to be the game's MVP is pretty tempting (net $140)! Let's face it: Love him or hate him, this is Ray's last game. If he is anywhere near the top in tackles, just on his team, and forces a turnover or makes just one, single outstanding play, those voting for the MVP (20% fan vote, 80% Broadcasters and Writers) will give him the Award. Traditionally, the winning team has gotten the Super Bowl MVP every year except one. If you're a San Fran bettor and playing the OVER, Kaepernick is +135 for the award and the Favorite. But look at it this way: If you take San Fran SU you're right at -175 and the Over is -115! If you think Kaepernick is the key then, after all the publicity he's gotten recently, Kaepernick at +135 gives you much better odds to make some loot. If Ed Reed's as good as Bill Belichick thinks (called Reed the best safety ever in the NFL!) and Jim Harbough doesn't get off the gas with his passing attack after 2 or 3 picks, then a two or three interception Game (Reed's specialty) probably will get him the MVP at +6600! If it's 'Ground and Pound'?Gore is sitting at +650 and Ray Rice is at +900. And, in the event a Fluke happens (Kaepernick gets hurt), Alex Smith is hanging around at +10000 for game MVP. Those are some fantastic odds using a common sense approach.
If you think San Fran will dominate then don't play the Spread. Take a "Double Chance" bet at +135 for San Francisco to lead at halftime and lead at the end of the game; you'll make more money that way than playing the spread line. If you think the game might go into OT then a +800 is on your side. A 'Ground and Pound' game usually gets rushing touchdowns so you might consider a "First Scorer" bet (Player to score first touchdown) with Gore at +600, Rice at +700, Crabtree at +750, Boldin at +900 and the Baltimore Ravens defense at +2500. But let's say Frank Gore breaks out on a 45 plus yard run down to the Ravens 3 yard line. Gore is spent, comes out, LaMichael James comes in "BadaBoom": touchdown James off right tackle----+2200 for first touchdown scorer!
Thinking how each coach will coach and the Players involved and you might find a very good coach and gambler, Jim Harbough, throwing an open drive 'GO Route' to Randy Moss and there it is: Moss +1600. Tons of value can be cashed-in on during the Super Bowl. Think about the teams, the coaches their strategies then consider your wife's patience, your patience and make a play accordingly. If you know San Fran will dominate then play the Prop Bet "Double Chance" and make 60% more money than simply playing the Spread. It's all about cashing Benjamins and only 'Suckers' won't look at the possibilities that Prop Bets offer. I also have this sneaking suspicion that the bad rap that Prop Bets get is from Bookies and Sports Books that hope you won't look at the numbers and trends to gain an Edge over them. Have a great Super Bowl! As for me, TimmyB, I'm going with Vernon Davis and Dennis Pitta as 'First Touchdown Scorers' at +900 for both? and Ray Lewis for MVP. Good Luck!
TimmieB's Prop Bet Pick: Ray Lewis Game MVP and Vernon Davis/Dennis Pitta 1st Touchdown Scorers.
_________________________
---
