Preview & outright plays:
The 2nd 'made-for-TV' golf event this week or a welcome break from strokeplay? Either way, this event is certainly unique and always attracts a high quality field. The Stableford scoring system is modified to reward attacking play by making points gained for scoring sub-par about twice the level of those lost for scoring over-par: double-eagle +8pts; eagle +5pts; birdie +2pts; par 0pts; bogey -1pt; double-bogey and above -3pts. It can make this rather a difficult event to cap as it rewards luck much more than other events: a holed fairway shot is rewarded very highly, but finding water is not too punitive. In 1999 Tiger Woods failed to advance to Sunday - though he had won the PGA the week before in rather dramatic fashion against Garcia - and Clarence Rose won this event in 1996. But this aside, the list of former winners reads like a 'Who's Who' of golf and even in this format, cream usually rises to the top.
The course is extremely long at 7,559 yards, but in the thin desert air the ball travels 10-15% further, so this is in effect a short course. There is no point in having such a format if the course didn't offer up very many eagle or birdies opportunities. Like most Jack Nicklaus designs, the course favors a high fade [for the right-hander] and while two of the four par-fives are over 600 yards, extra length off the tee does open up the possibility of eagles. The greens are Bentgrass and usually fast, though they have recently been reduced in size. This week there are two cuts - the first after 36 holes is for the lowest 72 players and ties and then after the 3rd round, only the lowest 36 and ties progress to Sunday. It used to be just the lowest 24 with a playoff needed if there were ties.
While Mickelson may be a justifiable favorite, he is easily passed over at single-figure odds. Instead, the three selections this week are Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia and Kenny Perry. All three have the experience in this event necessary to cope with the scoring system and the weather conditions. Singh hasn't won on the PGA Tour since The Masters last year, but he can put that right this week. He is a former winner of this event (1998) and has played well here in the last two years as well. He sits on top of the 'top-10 finishes' category which shows the consistency in his game this year and on this course, his attacking golf will be rewarded. He ranks 4th behind Mickelson, Woods and Calcavecchia in the very important (for this week) 'par-breaker' category and should go very close.
Garcia is another attacking player who will be well-suited to the format this week. He is in great form with top-15 finishes in his last seven events, a run that includes two majors and two wins, and has also finished in the top-15 on his two visits to Castle Pines. On both occasions he was lying 4th after three rounds, but faltered on the last day. Experience should prevent that happening again and like Singh, he should go very close.
Perry does not have a great record in this event, he has reached the last round just twice in his last seven attempts. However, his form at the moment is as good as it has ever been. He has finished in the top-10 four times in his last six events and the other two finishes were 20th and 26th in events with high quality fields. In his last 32 rounds, he has been over-par just three times. Perry has now risen to 14th in the 'par-breaker' category and looks set for his best finish in this event. Winning in this company looks beyond him, so the place-only option with Olympic looks the best bet.
Outright plays:
Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sports.com
Sergio Garcia to win 16/1 e.w. @ Olympic
Kenny Perry to 'show' (finish in the top-4) 12.5/1 @ Olympic
The 2nd 'made-for-TV' golf event this week or a welcome break from strokeplay? Either way, this event is certainly unique and always attracts a high quality field. The Stableford scoring system is modified to reward attacking play by making points gained for scoring sub-par about twice the level of those lost for scoring over-par: double-eagle +8pts; eagle +5pts; birdie +2pts; par 0pts; bogey -1pt; double-bogey and above -3pts. It can make this rather a difficult event to cap as it rewards luck much more than other events: a holed fairway shot is rewarded very highly, but finding water is not too punitive. In 1999 Tiger Woods failed to advance to Sunday - though he had won the PGA the week before in rather dramatic fashion against Garcia - and Clarence Rose won this event in 1996. But this aside, the list of former winners reads like a 'Who's Who' of golf and even in this format, cream usually rises to the top.
The course is extremely long at 7,559 yards, but in the thin desert air the ball travels 10-15% further, so this is in effect a short course. There is no point in having such a format if the course didn't offer up very many eagle or birdies opportunities. Like most Jack Nicklaus designs, the course favors a high fade [for the right-hander] and while two of the four par-fives are over 600 yards, extra length off the tee does open up the possibility of eagles. The greens are Bentgrass and usually fast, though they have recently been reduced in size. This week there are two cuts - the first after 36 holes is for the lowest 72 players and ties and then after the 3rd round, only the lowest 36 and ties progress to Sunday. It used to be just the lowest 24 with a playoff needed if there were ties.
While Mickelson may be a justifiable favorite, he is easily passed over at single-figure odds. Instead, the three selections this week are Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia and Kenny Perry. All three have the experience in this event necessary to cope with the scoring system and the weather conditions. Singh hasn't won on the PGA Tour since The Masters last year, but he can put that right this week. He is a former winner of this event (1998) and has played well here in the last two years as well. He sits on top of the 'top-10 finishes' category which shows the consistency in his game this year and on this course, his attacking golf will be rewarded. He ranks 4th behind Mickelson, Woods and Calcavecchia in the very important (for this week) 'par-breaker' category and should go very close.
Garcia is another attacking player who will be well-suited to the format this week. He is in great form with top-15 finishes in his last seven events, a run that includes two majors and two wins, and has also finished in the top-15 on his two visits to Castle Pines. On both occasions he was lying 4th after three rounds, but faltered on the last day. Experience should prevent that happening again and like Singh, he should go very close.
Perry does not have a great record in this event, he has reached the last round just twice in his last seven attempts. However, his form at the moment is as good as it has ever been. He has finished in the top-10 four times in his last six events and the other two finishes were 20th and 26th in events with high quality fields. In his last 32 rounds, he has been over-par just three times. Perry has now risen to 14th in the 'par-breaker' category and looks set for his best finish in this event. Winning in this company looks beyond him, so the place-only option with Olympic looks the best bet.
Outright plays:
Vijay Singh to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sports.com
Sergio Garcia to win 16/1 e.w. @ Olympic
Kenny Perry to 'show' (finish in the top-4) 12.5/1 @ Olympic
