The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 6

[WillyBoy]

Dogs are still king, now hitting 61.5%, which means Vegas line-setters have their collective heads up their butts, and sportsbooks are raking it in. The model is starting this week liking 9 dogs, but these numbers are based on what teams and players did last weekend. We’ll see how starter injuries shake out. GLTA

 

[WillyBoy]

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[WillyBoy]

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[WillyBoy]

The rankings below are subject to more than simple numbers – especially for QBs. Because context matters, each variable used for every category are weighted according to W/L/P records and strength of opposition; and, in addition, variables used in the QB rankings, are subject to descending weights – which emphasizes passing over rushing, passing efficiency over yards per game, and interceptions (negatively) over touchdowns.

I look at these QB numbers each week, and I’m semi-shocked weekly by the numbers of Geno Smith who’s been playing out of his mind. 75.2% completion percentage, 8.3 yards per pass, 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, a QBR of 74.8 and a rating of 113.1. If Pete Carroll had a clue how to manage games, and his defense didn’t play like crap, they’d be 4-1 instead of 2-3. So far this season, Smith has been a huge upgrade over Russell Wilson.

 

[WillyBoy]

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[WillyBoy]

The model is going dog wild, picking 12 to cover!!! However, given the narrowness of projected margins of victory to the current lines, I see a number of final pick-flips when the closing lines are posted.

Also - FWIW - There were a bunch of swings in the numbers when “confirmed” injuries were posted in the latest reports but dropping the Bengals well below the line was questionable to me; and, going forward, I plan to look under the hood of the injury module to see the reason. Depending on the specific injury and player, value of replacement, and coaching tendencies, a “questionable” on a late report, could flip it to an “out” with consequences to the projection, but it seems the module went overboard with the Bengals. Thing is, reviewing the basic algorithm, to say nothing of the code, takes time - and I’m OLD – so it’ll get done when it gets done.

GLTA

 

[WillyBoy]

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