The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 13

[WillyBoy]

Although it’s predictable to see even good defenses fall apart in the 2nd halves of games, last week was pretty much over-the-top. Also predictable was that I was on the losing end of such games, along with the model. Anyway – it’s nearly Thanksgiving, and I expect the start of the Tanking For Shedeur season to begin, with my Raiders and the Giants leading the way. The Raiders shouldn’t have a tough time getting wiped by the Chiefs this week, while the Giants vs Cowboys may be interestingly bad. GLTA

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

I’ve tried for years trying to get positive results with Totals projections, tweaking algorithm 6 ways from Sunday, but never getting it right. Below is my latest test, with picks ranked according to the variation from the line, and if I just break even I’ll be happy.

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

Giving Over-Under projections a try. I’ve reworked the posting, eliminating the ranking of the projected margins and showing the margins to the 10th of a point. For record-keeping the projected total will remain as is, but the final O-U picks could change depending on the closing lines. If this hits less than 50%, I’ll just toss it on the huge pile of previous failures. FWIW – I’m using some of these picks on my own parlays, so I’ll feel your pain - LOL. GLTA

 

[WillyBoy]