A decent ATS result for the model last week, but a sharp regression (as expected) for Over/Unders, with a significant increase, overall, in the projection/losing score differential. I have to say however that the model has yet to crash and burn, so I’ll be progressing with it in order the obtain a better sample size to give me either good cause to dump it or not. Speaking of which, we use the projection/losing score differential so that winning outliers don’t skew the resultant variation – like the Bills/Rams game, or Jags/Titans. The point, afterall, is reliability, and the difference in the model’s losses, between the projection margins and the actual scores, is what is most relevant. GLTA
(FWIW, the O/U projections, while done in good faith are, to a great extent, dependent on the competence and moods of the NFL officials who, time and again, thru egregious calls and non-calls throughout each game, put their doubtful stamp on games which should be left to the teams themselves. Luckily, these days (thanks to replay and the use of multiple cameras) they seldom make the same notorious 4th quarter goofs that change win/loss outcomes - which use to be painfully routine – but the inconsistency of officiating crews across the league is both stark and disappointing, and their varied and personal inclinations have a definite impact on the total scores of games. I seldom bet totals myself, but when I do, I spend a lot of on-line time to get the ref crew assignments and tendencies. It pays to do so.)
(FWIW, the O/U projections, while done in good faith are, to a great extent, dependent on the competence and moods of the NFL officials who, time and again, thru egregious calls and non-calls throughout each game, put their doubtful stamp on games which should be left to the teams themselves. Luckily, these days (thanks to replay and the use of multiple cameras) they seldom make the same notorious 4th quarter goofs that change win/loss outcomes - which use to be painfully routine – but the inconsistency of officiating crews across the league is both stark and disappointing, and their varied and personal inclinations have a definite impact on the total scores of games. I seldom bet totals myself, but when I do, I spend a lot of on-line time to get the ref crew assignments and tendencies. It pays to do so.)
