The National Football League
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
DEN
DEN
Tonight...
I have played the DEN first half +3 and ML+150. I don't really want to share units as I plan to buy some or all of it back with in-running. I have a pretty strong feeling that they'll be able to start out well and take a lead, at which point I'll have a middle/arbitrage opportunity. I also have DEN as the closing leg of a teaser at +10.5. The total looks too high for a night game in Denver on primetime TV, but I'll stay away.
Props...
I continue to play on Sanders however small because I anticipate that Denver will try to control the game on the ground. I do like Philip Lindsey over receiving yards and catches, but don't have those props available to me in this game. Denver's secondary is hurting and Hill might be able to break a long one, so his yardage total is worth a look, but the KC receiver I like the most in this one is Watkins receiving totals over.
GL
DEN
Tonight...
I have played the DEN first half +3 and ML+150. I don't really want to share units as I plan to buy some or all of it back with in-running. I have a pretty strong feeling that they'll be able to start out well and take a lead, at which point I'll have a middle/arbitrage opportunity. I also have DEN as the closing leg of a teaser at +10.5. The total looks too high for a night game in Denver on primetime TV, but I'll stay away.
Props...
I continue to play on Sanders however small because I anticipate that Denver will try to control the game on the ground. I do like Philip Lindsey over receiving yards and catches, but don't have those props available to me in this game. Denver's secondary is hurting and Hill might be able to break a long one, so his yardage total is worth a look, but the KC receiver I like the most in this one is Watkins receiving totals over.
GL
From week 3:
I meant to fill this 2nd leg with NE last week, but totally forgot. I put OAK in here as I think they have a pretty decent chance to win this straight up. This will be a home game for them and they have better in-game decision making.
6-pt Teaser:
PIT +7? [wk 3]
OAK +11.5
3x to win 2.5x
I certainly won't be on the full game side or total tonight. Some consideration to the 1H under or Colts TT un10 1H. I think the 2H will be higher scoring than the 1st half as the Colts will be forced to throw a lot late to catch up. Colts are really banged up. May have a prop or two later.
gl
I meant to fill this 2nd leg with NE last week, but totally forgot. I put OAK in here as I think they have a pretty decent chance to win this straight up. This will be a home game for them and they have better in-game decision making.
6-pt Teaser:
PIT +7? [wk 3]
OAK +11.5
3x to win 2.5x
I certainly won't be on the full game side or total tonight. Some consideration to the 1H under or Colts TT un10 1H. I think the 2H will be higher scoring than the 1st half as the Colts will be forced to throw a lot late to catch up. Colts are really banged up. May have a prop or two later.
gl
- Mar 19, 2006
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Thanks, OS. Much appreciated, especially coming from you. I know we share the same line of thinking that teasers, while generally a losing proposition, do offer tremendous value in the NFL in certain situations. Patience and careful selection is the key.
Other strong candidates for teaser legs this week:
DET +1/+1.5
ATL +3/+3.5
DEN +1 (before it moved and if it goes back)
MIN +3/+3.5
I already have DET teased up to +8.5 and ATL at +10.5 in a 5-leg 6.5pt teaser that I have open with DEN+10.5 from MNF in week 4. I put those in as soon as lines were up on Monday. Two legs to fill there.
I also just caught a 3.5 on MIN and added it to a 6-leg 7pt teaser I have open from last week, so I've got them at +10.5 in that one with two legs to fill.
Now all this to say, I should be posting these teasers if I'm going to start talking about them on here. I don't want to seem like some other posters who put up their "winners" after the game has already finished. BUT, in my case these teasers are high risk as they are 5 and 6-legs and I generally don't feel great about posting that stuff, especially since I tend to play them at a more "square" book that typically offers an extra half point on dogs, where that line may not be found at most other shops. Maybe I'll start posting in the future.
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Just a honest question why tease so much and give up the value if you win? I?m trying to learn if you can help me out thanks Bo. 
opcorn2:bigear:x31:
opcorn2:bigear:x31: Just a honest question why tease so much and give up the value if you win? I?m trying to learn if you can help me out thanks Bo.
Not sure I understand.... ?Give up the value of you win??
I see it as capitalizing on the additional value that I?m already getting, if that makes any sense. The payout structures on certain 6.5 and 7pt teases are enough to create value crossing over a few specific key numbers. Maybe I misunderstood your question if you want to rephrase it for me, I?m happy to share info.
That said, I got my ass handed to me today. Big mistake trusting the raiders offense. Derek Carr made of ton of questionable decisions today, which I did not expect vs the Chargers poor pass defense. Gruden also with some questionable game-planning with the two minute offense. Oh, and Atlanta didn?t help either.
:facepalm:
DZ at no point do I want you to think I?m second guessing. I?m just trying to learn around here if you bet a 7 pt. Two teamer you get paid for a flat bet. Is that how your teasers work?
bosbabie, don't worry. I didn't take it as second guessing. Always happy to respond to questions. I may have to get back to you with a more in depth answer, but real quickly, no, the teasers I have discussed above are not two team 7-pt teasers. Thus far this season, I have stuck with 2-tm 6-pt teasers, 5-tm 6.5-pt teasers and 6-tm 7-pt teasers and this primarily has to do with the payout structure on those as well as the additional half point of value I get on most dogs at books skewed towards the public.
I will be looking for potential teaser opportunities for this upcoming week during tonights game and will post some thoughts.
Week 6
Week 6
Played this a little earlier in the week...
2-Tm 6-pt Teaser:
PIT +8.5
CAR +7.5
3x to win 2.5x
Other teams to consider for 6-7pt teasers: IND, MIA & MIN (at 10 or better)
I really like MIA as a home dog tonight and think they win outright.
IND should be able to take care of the Jets on the road. These teams have been zigging and zagging all year and this week it is the Jets turn to underperform and the Colts turn to over perform.
I do not think the Vikings will take the Cards lightly as heavy favs after the Buffalo debacle at home in week 3. The Cardinals are coming in riding high off of their first win of the season and should come back to earth this week.
I'll be back with props for tonight later if I can find anything good. One I'm looking for is the OVER on 4.5 total sacks.
GL
Week 6
Played this a little earlier in the week...
2-Tm 6-pt Teaser:
PIT +8.5
CAR +7.5
3x to win 2.5x
Other teams to consider for 6-7pt teasers: IND, MIA & MIN (at 10 or better)
I really like MIA as a home dog tonight and think they win outright.
IND should be able to take care of the Jets on the road. These teams have been zigging and zagging all year and this week it is the Jets turn to underperform and the Colts turn to over perform.
I do not think the Vikings will take the Cards lightly as heavy favs after the Buffalo debacle at home in week 3. The Cardinals are coming in riding high off of their first win of the season and should come back to earth this week.
I'll be back with props for tonight later if I can find anything good. One I'm looking for is the OVER on 4.5 total sacks.
GL
